2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[BD80]

Carey And Hurt will be a terrible front court defensively. ...

Just deleted a scathing reply. Deep breath.

We're all grumpy that Duke lost. Pick on us old weathered folk, not 18 yo kids who haven't even stepped on campus.

Somebody please start a thread for starting lineup/minutes for next year's team so this … stuff … can be removed from a recruiting thread.

[UrinalCake]

In fact, Tre is going to be so important to our offensive game, that I'm not sure he can be the same on-ball defender he was this past year.

He had a couple of standout offensive performances this season (the VT game and the FSU game come to mind) in which he continued to play excellent defense. So I think he can do both. But I agree that he'll be asked to do a lot and it may be that some areas suffer as a result. We're going to be lacking guys who can create offense so you're right that Tre will have the ball in his hands starting off every possession. As much as I would love for him to "only" have to play 35 minutes a game the reality is that he will likely be playing the full 40 in all of our "real" games.

Hopefully Ellis can develop some PG skills to share the load and Goldwire can work on his shot as well. And this is totally me being greedy here but I would love to still land Kira Lewis even if Tre comes back.

[BandAlum83]

Tre's DR% was 8.4%, which was 8th on the team out of our eight players with more than 400 minutes. Below is a chart showing Duke guards over the past 10 years and their defensive rebounding pct:

Player				DR%
RJ Barrett 2019			17.2%
Quinn Cook 2013			11.9%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2013		11.8%
Grayson Allen 2016		11.7%
Grayson Allen 2017 		11.3%
Cam Reddish 2019		10.7%
Luke Kennard 2016		10.7%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2015		10.3%
Nolan Smith 2011		10.1%
Andre Dawkins 2014		10.1%
Tyus Jones 2015			9.9%
Tyler Thornton 2013		9.9%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2014		9.3%
Andre Dawkins 2012		9.3%
Quinn Cook 2015			9.2%
Andre Dawkins 2010		8.6%
Jon Scheyer 2010		8.5%
Tre Jones 2019			8.4%
Frank Jackson 2017		8.3%
Luke Kennard 2017		8.2%
Andre Dawkins 2011		8.1%
Grayson Allen 2018		8.0%
Tyler Thornton 2014		7.9%
Tyler Thornton 2012		7.9%
Quinn Cook 2014			7.5%
Matt Jones 2015			7.4%
Seth Curry 2012			7.4%
Seth Curry 2013			7.3%
Jordan Goldwire 2019		7.0%
Kyrie Irving 2011		6.7%
Derryck Thornton 2016		6.5%
Matt Jones 2017			6.0%
Seth Curry 2011			6.0%
Nolan Smith 2010		5.8%
Matt Jones 2016			5.1%
Trevon Duval 2018		4.9%

Looks like Tre's defensive rebounding was pretty average for a Duke guard (and behind guys like Luke Kennard, Andre Dawkins, and brother Tyus, all of whom were somewhat subpar defenders). So his defensive rebounding wasn't a liability, but it's hard to call it one of his defensive strengths.

There you go again, Kedsy, bringing facts and statistics to an argument!

[907bluedevils]

I wonder if Hampton would still come early if Tre ends up staying. From what I see, he is more of a combo guard and could potentially start next to Tre as a playmaker.

[907bluedevils]

One thing to also watch is if Barnes leaves Tenn for UCLA, what happens with Josiah James.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Tre's DR% was 8.4%, which was 8th on the team out of our eight players with more than 400 minutes. Below is a chart showing Duke guards over the past 10 years and their defensive rebounding pct:

Player				DR%
RJ Barrett 2019			17.2%
Quinn Cook 2013			11.9%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2013		11.8%
Grayson Allen 2016		11.7%
Grayson Allen 2017 		11.3%
Cam Reddish 2019		10.7%
Luke Kennard 2016		10.7%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2015		10.3%
Nolan Smith 2011		10.1%
Andre Dawkins 2014		10.1%
Tyus Jones 2015			9.9%
Tyler Thornton 2013		9.9%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2014		9.3%
Andre Dawkins 2012		9.3%
Quinn Cook 2015			9.2%
Andre Dawkins 2010		8.6%
Jon Scheyer 2010		8.5%
Tre Jones 2019			8.4%
Frank Jackson 2017		8.3%
Luke Kennard 2017		8.2%
Andre Dawkins 2011		8.1%
Grayson Allen 2018		8.0%
Tyler Thornton 2014		7.9%
Tyler Thornton 2012		7.9%
Quinn Cook 2014			7.5%
Matt Jones 2015			7.4%
Seth Curry 2012			7.4%
Seth Curry 2013			7.3%
Jordan Goldwire 2019		7.0%
Kyrie Irving 2011		6.7%
Derryck Thornton 2016		6.5%
Matt Jones 2017			6.0%
Seth Curry 2011			6.0%
Nolan Smith 2010		5.8%
Matt Jones 2016			5.1%
Trevon Duval 2018		4.9%

Looks like Tre's defensive rebounding was pretty average for a Duke guard (and behind guys like Luke Kennard, Andre Dawkins, and brother Tyus, all of whom were somewhat subpar defenders). So his defensive rebounding wasn't a liability, but it's hard to call it one of his defensive strengths.

Are you counting RJ Barrett and Cam as guards? I do not.
And really, there are no pure point guards in the list above Tre. Tyus and Quinn were kind of both combo guards...though Tyus was called the point guard. Kennard, Grayson, Rasheed, Nolan, Matt Jones, Scheyer, JohnnyDawkins all big 2 guards, and all of them were excellent rebounders due to their leaping ability. Well, maybe not Jones, but he was marginally a guard to begin with.

[CDu]

Are you counting RJ Barrett and Cam as guards? I do not.
And really, there are no pure point guards in the list above Tre. Tyus and Quinn were kind of both combo guards...though Tyus was called the point guard. Kennard, Grayson, Rasheed, Nolan, Matt Jones, Scheyer, JohnnyDawkins all big 2 guards, and all of them were excellent rebounders due to their leaping ability. Well, maybe not Jones, but he was marginally a guard to begin with.

Well, Matt and Tyus Jones and Kennard were not leapers. Nor was Cook, or Scheyer. But Matt Jones, Kennard, and Scheyer were all notably taller than Tre.

But Cook and Jones were both definitely considered PGs. Cook transitioned to SG as a senior, but he was a SG in a PG body. Tyus was all PG, both in size and position played. And neither was a leaper. So comparing Tre to those two is totally reasonable to me.

Agree that comparing Tre to Barrett, Reddish, Kennard, Allen, Sulaimon, Scheyer, and Matt Jones isn't really appropriate. Maybe Smith too, although he's more comparably sized to Tre than the other SGs.

[fgb]

Tyus and Quinn were kind of both combo guards...though Tyus was called the point guard.

I would...disagree.

[Kedsy]

Are you counting RJ Barrett and Cam as guards? I do not.
And really, there are no pure point guards in the list above Tre. Tyus and Quinn were kind of both combo guards...though Tyus was called the point guard. Kennard, Grayson, Rasheed, Nolan, Matt Jones, Scheyer, JohnnyDawkins all big 2 guards, and all of them were excellent rebounders due to their leaping ability. Well, maybe not Jones, but he was marginally a guard to begin with.

I put RJ and Cam on the list just to be thorough and because they played this past year. Though to be fair, one of them played guard, unless you think we played one guard and four forwards. And if Tyus wasn't a point guard, then neither was Tre (or almost anyone else).

But I'm not sure what you're attempting to say by trying to discount almost every Duke guard of the past ten years. You said, "Part of Tre's defensive value is his ability to snare a fair amount of defensive rebounds too," and I was just pointing out that Tre was last in the 2019 rotation in defensive rebounding and mediocre in defensive rebounding compared to Duke guards of the past ten years (and probably beyond that, but I stopped checking in 2010). Basically, defensive rebounding is probably the least of Tre's many defensive attributes. I'm not sure why you chose to single it out in your earlier post.

[revmel53]

I would...disagree.

I would disagree also. Quinn was never the point guard that Tyus and Tyus was never the same combo guard that Quinn was. Q's significant work with S F last year showed that.

[Troublemaker]

So after next year potentially only O'Connell, Baker and Ellis return? Better have a huge 2020 class lined up.

For the rest of Coach K's career, Duke will always need a big class coming in the following season. Nothing special about 2020 in that regard, imo.

Not sure I'd say "amazing" - not before seeing them play. We're losing Zion and RJ, and I doubt any of the newcomers will be as good as either of them.

Definitely not as good as Zion, but then again, Duke has had many wonderful teams without an individual player as good as Zion. That's not a reason to be discouraged.

I do think we'll have freshmen that will be effectively as good or better than RJ. RJ's game was somewhat neutered by the constant pack-it-in schemes (of which his own shooting was no antidote). If Duke could even put two shooters on the court, we'd have gotten FIBA RJ / #2 overall draft pick RJ more often, in which case I would agree that none of these freshmen would be as good.

Plus, there's reason to believe that Tre's shot will be much improved next year. It's such an obvious deficiency for him, and must be so irritating / embarrassing how teams literally just dropped off him to let him shoot in the Tourney. I'd make a strong wager that he works extremely hard on that this summer and that his % is considerably higher next year, probably 30% or more. If he returns, of course.

I'm ambivalent about this one. On one hand, Tre's been a very good (80%) FT shooter since he was a freshman in high school. High school stats here (and in the graphic below). The FT shooting shows that Tre has shooting touch in him, which typically bodes well for improving the 3-pt shot. On the other hand, he's now had two consecutive seasons in which he's hit the wall in terms of 3-pt shooting improvement.

Tre's senior season in high school, he tried to become more of a high-volume 3-pt shooter and saw his percentage drop accordingly to 29.6%. (Previously in high school, he was very low-volume, taking presumably wide-open shots, which he canned at a mid-30s percentage. [Incidentally, this is why it was silly, imo, for Duke fans to ask Tre to pass up completely wide-open, no-closeout threes]). And then his freshman season at Duke against a higher level of competition and a slightly longer 3-pt line, we saw his struggles first hand.

So, can Tre become a 35% 3-pt shooter as a sophomore? It's possible but I'd put the odds at 50/50.

I think it's reasonable to expect improvement from Tre as a perimeter shooter, but with this roster, he's actually going to be a MUCH more prominent ball handler, and won't be spotting up nearly as much. With Zion, RJ, and Cam gone, Tre's going to be running the show just about all the time. We don't really have another playmaker. It's actually kind of scary. If Tre gets nicked up at all at any point, we're pretty screwed, unless Jordan makes a massive leap in his skill level as a playmaker.

In fact, Tre is going to be so important to our offensive game, that I'm not sure he can be the same on-ball defender he was this past year. That role is expending a lot of energy on the defensive end, and we need him to do a TON for us on offense next year. IMO, it was one of the biggest reasons he wasn't as consistent a shooter, he just had tired legs from playing incredible defense. A lot of his jumpers were short, which is a sign of fatigue. This is why I'm kind of hoping we can somehow still get RJ Hampton. We need another guy who can create offense. It seems like a long shot with Tre back, though.

This is really shaping up to be Tre Jones' team.

I love the latter two predictions -- that Tre will be the star of the team (and indeed probably the team's best two-way player) and that we should expect some defensive dropoff given his increase in offensive usage.

BUT, I disagree that he's Duke's sole playmaker. I think Wendell will be effective as a secondary playmaker on the perimeter; I think Hurt can playmake out of the high post (think VaTech's center whose name escapes me right this moment); and I think we can throw the ball to Vernon on the perimeter and he can faceup against opposing college centers and make plays as well.

[ChillinDuke]

<snip>

So, can Tre become a 35% 3-pt shooter as a sophomore? It's possible but I'd put the odds at 50/50.

<snip>

Agree with just about everything you said. Only nit is that I don't think Tre needs to become a 35% 3-pt shooter. Not even close, really. I think if he's just a 30% 3-pt shooter, that's material enough to completely change the dynamic of the team's offense - both last season and likely next season (for convenience, he was 26.2% this year). For a variety of reasons, not just the explicit math that he would have made 4 more 3-pt shots (which someone will inevitably argue).

- Chillin

[devildeac]

For the rest of Coach K's career, Duke will always need a big class coming in the following season. Nothing special about 2020 in that regard, imo.



Definitely not as good as Zion, but then again, Duke has had many wonderful teams without an individual player as good as Zion. That's not a reason to be discouraged.

I do think we'll have freshmen that will be effectively as good or better than RJ. RJ's game was somewhat neutered by the constant pack-it-in schemes (of which his own shooting was no antidote). If Duke could even put two shooters on the court, we'd have gotten FIBA RJ / #2 overall draft pick RJ more often, in which case I would agree that none of these freshmen would be as good.



I'm ambivalent about this one. On one hand, Tre's been a very good (80%) FT shooter since he was a freshman in high school. High school stats here (and in the graphic below). The FT shooting shows that Tre has shooting touch in him, which typically bodes well for improving the 3-pt shot. On the other hand, he's now had two consecutive seasons in which he's hit the wall in terms of 3-pt shooting improvement.

Tre's senior season in high school, he tried to become more of a high-volume 3-pt shooter and saw his percentage drop accordingly to 29.6%. (Previously in high school, he was very low-volume, taking presumably wide-open shots, which he canned at a mid-30s percentage. [Incidentally, this is why it was silly, imo, for Duke fans to ask Tre to pass up completely wide-open, no-closeout threes]). And then his freshman season at Duke against a higher level of competition and a slightly longer 3-pt line, we saw his struggles first hand.

So, can Tre become a 35% 3-pt shooter as a sophomore? It's possible but I'd put the odds at 50/50.






I love the latter two predictions -- that Tre will be the star of the team (and indeed probably the team's best two-way player) and that we should expect some defensive dropoff given his increase in offensive usage.

BUT, I disagree that he's Duke's sole playmaker. I think Wendell will be effective as a secondary playmaker on the perimeter; I think Hurt can playmake out of the high post (think VaTech's center whose name escapes me right this moment); and I think we can throw the ball to Vernon on the perimeter and he can faceup against opposing college centers and make plays as well.

Blackshear, the bulldozer? Blackshear, the moving screen?

[godins]

I put RJ and Cam on the list just to be thorough and because they played this past year. Though to be fair, one of them played guard, unless you think we played one guard and four forwards. And if Tyus wasn't a point guard, then neither was Tre (or almost anyone else).

But I'm not sure what you're attempting to say by trying to discount almost every Duke guard of the past ten years. You said, "Part of Tre's defensive value is his ability to snare a fair amount of defensive rebounds too," and I was just pointing out that Tre was last in the 2019 rotation in defensive rebounding and mediocre in defensive rebounding compared to Duke guards of the past ten years (and probably beyond that, but I stopped checking in 2010). Basically, defensive rebounding is probably the least of Tre's many defensive attributes. I'm not sure why you chose to single it out in your earlier post

Pardon me if this was mentioned up thread, but I wonder if Tre’s mediocre DR% has anything to do with playing alongside Duke’s best defensive rebounding guard in the last decade. Love the stats, thanks for pulling them.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I put RJ and Cam on the list just to be thorough and because they played this past year. Though to be fair, one of them played guard, unless you think we played one guard and four forwards. .

yes we pretty much did just that. Or a point guard and four positionless players...I think I got that specific terminology from a guy with a funny name that begins with K....

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I would disagree also. Quinn was never the point guard that Tyus and Tyus was never the same combo guard that Quinn was. Q's significant work with S F last year showed that.

From a story right after 2015 Natty:
"But instead of sulking about the hot-shots threatening to overshadow his final season, Cook adjusted. He moved from his natural point guard position over to shooting guard to make room in the starting lineup for Tyus Jones...."

Quinn was never as good a pure PG as Tyus, but they both played some point that season...

[CDu]

Pardon me if this was mentioned up thread, but I wonder if Tre’s mediocre DR% has anything to do with playing alongside Duke’s best defensive rebounding guard in the last decade. Love the stats, thanks for pulling them.

I am firmly in the “rebounding rates are contingent upon your role and teammates” camp. So I agree it is possible that Jones’ rebound numbers are deflated by playing with several terrific rebounders. But I think you are missing Kedsy’s point: Jones has not really shown any evidence that he is a plus on the defensive glass, certainly not to the degree of being praised for it. That he might or might not have gotten overshadowed is immaterial to what he was saying. Jones might (or might not) be a solid rebounder, but Kedsy is correctly saying “we haven’t seen anything to suggest it yet.”

[CDu]

From a story right after 2015 Natty:
"But instead of sulking about the hot-shots threatening to overshadow his final season, Cook adjusted. He moved from his natural point guard position over to shooting guard to make room in the starting lineup for Tyus Jones..."

Quinn was never as good a pure PG as Tyus, but they both played some point that season...

You are kind of arguing against yourself with that statement. Tyus Jones wasn’t at Duke in 2013, so Cook was able to play his natural position (PG). And that was his best rebounding year.

[jimsumner]

Quinn Cook was a pretty darn good point guard before Ty Jones arrived. In 2013 Cook averaged 11.7 points, 5.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game for a 30-6 team, making third-team All-ACC along the way. He hit 87.7 from the line, 39.3 on 3s.

The following year Cook averaged 11.6 points, 4.4 assists and 1.3 steals per game, 82.7 from the line, 37.1 on 3s.

He had 343 assists against 137 turnovers combined over those two seasons.

Seems like a point-guard profile to me.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

You are kind of arguing against yourself with that statement. Tyus Jones wasn’t at Duke in 2013, so Cook was able to play his natural position (PG). And that was his best rebounding year.

Maybe re-read the quote...clearly calls PG the natural position for Quinn. I also remember ALL THE STORIES about how Quinn gave up his natural PG position to welcome Tyus in...from another pre season publication:
"If Tyus Jones comes to Duke, Duke will have two great point guards who need to start. Coach K is such a great coach at adjusting to his team, and will find a way to get both on the court at the same time."