2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[Reddevil]

Trying not to get too excited about landing Hurt and keeping Jones. If we got those two, the roster looks amazing:

C: Carey, DeLaurier, Bolden (?)
F: Hurt, DeLaurier, White
G/F: Moore, White, Baker
G: O’Connell, Ellis (or reversed)
PG: Jones, Ellis, Goldwire

A WAY more “Coach K” team than any in recent memory: a true PG, shooters at 3 other spots, and a big.

Plus, having so many shooters around Jones and Carey will make their lives so much easier.

Please be correct Crystal Ball guessers! And please be true that Jones plans to return!

So after next year potentially only O'Connell, Baker and Ellis return? Better have a huge 2020 class lined up.

[mattman91]

So after next year potentially only O'Connell, Baker and Ellis return? Better have a huge 2020 class lined up.

And Goldwire. And maybe Moore. And maybe even a late recruit or two from this year's class.

[CDu]

So after next year potentially only O'Connell, Baker and Ellis return? Better have a huge 2020 class lined up.

I will worry about the 2020-21 season later. Still a lot that can happen between now and then to address the roster. Moore could be a two-year guy. We could land another recruit. We could add a transfer. We could add a grad transfer next summer. Or we could land a monster recruiting class. Or any combination of those.

[kAzE]

I will worry about the 2020-21 season later. Still a lot that can happen between now and then to address the roster. Moore could be a two-year guy. We could land another recruit. We could add a transfer. We could add a grad transfer next summer. Or we could land a monster recruiting class. Or any combination of those.

For real . . .

But while we're on the subject, I'm actually pretty excited for Boogie Ellis' career at Duke. I think he could be a 3-4 guy who eventually becomes a 20+ ppg scorer.

[CDu]

For real . . .

But while we're on the subject, I'm actually pretty excited for Boogie Ellis' career at Duke. I think he could be a 3-4 guy who eventually becomes a 20+ ppg scorer.

Maybe our Devonte Graham?

[dukelifer]

So after next year potentially only O'Connell, Baker and Ellis return? Better have a huge 2020 class lined up.

2020 is supposed to have a strong class. That said- Duke will do its best to get players. Not worried about that.

[G man]

Funny a buddy of mine who is a KU fan said his board thought Hampton and Hurt were locks for KU.

[BD80]

Funny a buddy of mine who is a KU fan said his board thought Hampton and Hurt were locks for KU.

ku is planning on having a coach or a team in the next few years?

[slower]

Trying not to get too excited about landing Hurt and keeping Jones. If we got those two, the roster looks amazing:

C: Carey, DeLaurier, Bolden (?)
F: Hurt, DeLaurier, White
G/F: Moore, White, Baker
G: O’Connell, Ellis (or reversed)
PG: Jones, Ellis, Goldwire

A WAY more “Coach K” team than any in recent memory: a true PG, shooters at 3 other spots, and a big.

Plus, having so many shooters around Jones and Carey will make their lives so much easier.

Please be correct Crystal Ball guessers! And please be true that Jones plans to return!

Not sure I'd say "amazing" - not before seeing them play. We're losing Zion and RJ, and I doubt any of the newcomers will be as good as either of them. But I see the potential - especially if Carey truly can hit from beyond 10 feet. Tre would be huge, obviously.

If Bolden can at least maintain his current level, and White, DeLaurier, AOC, Baker and Goldwire up their game, you may be right.

[UrinalCake]

Carey And Hurt will be a terrible front court defensively. Like, have to go zone kind of terrible. I would rather pair Carey with Javin and then have Hurt and Bolden come in, kind of like our big man platoon in 2010. That means we always have one experienced big in the game, and one big who can stretch the floor at least a little. There’s actually a lot of similarities I can see between this (still theoretical) lineup and 2010.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Carey And Hurt will be a terrible front court defensively. Like, have to go zone kind of terrible. I would rather pair Carey with Javin and then have Hurt and Bolden come in, kind of like our big man platoon in 2010. That means we always have one experienced big in the game, and one big who can stretch the floor at least a little. There’s actually a lot of similarities I can see between this (still theoretical) lineup and 2010.

How do you know this? Did anyone know Zion was going to be as good as he was, on either side of the ball? I wouldn't be surprised if either or both turned out to be sieves on defense and sort of expect that. But I am curious how you seem so certain of this.

[UrinalCake]

None of us knows for sure, but every scouting report I’ve read points to both of them being poor defenders. Carey himself said in the interview that was part of the latest DBR podcast that he knows he needs to improve his defense. You are right that Zion turned out to be a way better defender than any of us knew, but he always had a reputation for being an excellent rebounder and had the physical tools to defend well. We were really spoiled this season by having four freshmen who all brought it on the defensive side, it’s not common as we had seen in previous years.

[flyingdutchdevil]

How do you know this? Did anyone know Zion was going to be as good as he was, on either side of the ball? I wouldn't be surprised if either or both turned out to be sieves on defense and sort of expect that. But I am curious how you seem so certain of this.

Well, Many predicted RJ would be our best defender this year only for him to be our worst defender in the rotation sans AOC.

Now, Cam, Zion, and Tre were all better than expected.

It’s a crapshoot, but I agree with UC that Hurt and Carey will likely need help with defense. Most OADs that have come through Duke generally do.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Well, Many predicted RJ would be our best defender this year only for him to be our worst defender in the rotation sans AOC.

Now, Cam, Zion, and Tre were all better than expected.
.

I agree with your assessment all the way around. I would call Tre and Zion elite defenders, and Cam very good. Part of Tre's defensive value is his ability to snare a fair amount of defensive rebounds too. To my eye, RJ was often "indifferent" on defense. When he had that attitude going, he was really good D rebounder, but D was not his priority...shall we say.

[Devilwin]

Lots of Matt Hurt talk here. No one named Matt Hurt has signed yet to come here. Speculation is fine but I do not want to get our hopes up, then be let down. Jones appears to be coming back but again, when he announces it I will believe it..

[ChillinDuke]

Trying not to get too excited about landing Hurt and keeping Jones. If we got those two, the roster looks amazing:

C: Carey, DeLaurier, Bolden (?)
F: Hurt, DeLaurier, White
G/F: Moore, White, Baker
G: O’Connell, Ellis (or reversed)
PG: Jones, Ellis, Goldwire

A WAY more “Coach K” team than any in recent memory: a true PG, shooters at 3 other spots, and a big.

Plus, having so many shooters around Jones and Carey will make their lives so much easier.

Please be correct Crystal Ball guessers! And please be true that Jones plans to return!

Plus, there's reason to believe that Tre's shot will be much improved next year. It's such an obvious deficiency for him, and must be so irritating / embarrassing how teams literally just dropped off him to let him shoot in the Tourney. I'd make a strong wager that he works extremely hard on that this summer and that his % is considerably higher next year, probably 30% or more. If he returns, of course.

- Chillin

[Kedsy]

Part of Tre's defensive value is his ability to snare a fair amount of defensive rebounds too.

Tre's DR% was 8.4%, which was 8th on the team out of our eight players with more than 400 minutes. Below is a chart showing Duke guards over the past 10 years and their defensive rebounding pct:

Player				DR%
RJ Barrett 2019			17.2%
Quinn Cook 2013			11.9%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2013		11.8%
Grayson Allen 2016		11.7%
Grayson Allen 2017 		11.3%
Cam Reddish 2019		10.7%
Luke Kennard 2016		10.7%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2015		10.3%
Nolan Smith 2011		10.1%
Andre Dawkins 2014		10.1%
Tyus Jones 2015			9.9%
Tyler Thornton 2013		9.9%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2014		9.3%
Andre Dawkins 2012		9.3%
Quinn Cook 2015			9.2%
Andre Dawkins 2010		8.6%
Jon Scheyer 2010		8.5%
Tre Jones 2019			8.4%
Frank Jackson 2017		8.3%
Luke Kennard 2017		8.2%
Andre Dawkins 2011		8.1%
Grayson Allen 2018		8.0%
Tyler Thornton 2014		7.9%
Tyler Thornton 2012		7.9%
Quinn Cook 2014			7.5%
Matt Jones 2015			7.4%
Seth Curry 2012			7.4%
Seth Curry 2013			7.3%
Jordan Goldwire 2019		7.0%
Kyrie Irving 2011		6.7%
Derryck Thornton 2016		6.5%
Matt Jones 2017			6.0%
Seth Curry 2011			6.0%
Nolan Smith 2010		5.8%
Matt Jones 2016			5.1%
Trevon Duval 2018		4.9%

Looks like Tre's defensive rebounding was pretty average for a Duke guard (and behind guys like Luke Kennard, Andre Dawkins, and brother Tyus, all of whom were somewhat subpar defenders). So his defensive rebounding wasn't a liability, but it's hard to call it one of his defensive strengths.

[kAzE]

Plus, there's reason to believe that Tre's shot will be much improved next year. It's such an obvious deficiency for him, and must be so irritating / embarrassing how teams literally just dropped off him to let him shoot in the Tourney. I'd make a strong wager that he works extremely hard on that this summer and that his % is considerably higher next year, probably 30% or more. If he returns, of course.

- Chillin

I think it's reasonable to expect improvement from Tre as a perimeter shooter, but with this roster, he's actually going to be a MUCH more prominent ball handler, and won't be spotting up nearly as much. With Zion, RJ, and Cam gone, Tre's going to be running the show just about all the time. We don't really have another playmaker. It's actually kind of scary. If Tre gets nicked up at all at any point, we're pretty screwed, unless Jordan makes a massive leap in his skill level as a playmaker.

In fact, Tre is going to be so important to our offensive game, that I'm not sure he can be the same on-ball defender he was this past year. That role is expending a lot of energy on the defensive end, and we need him to do a TON for us on offense next year. IMO, it was one of the biggest reasons he wasn't as consistent a shooter, he just had tired legs from playing incredible defense. A lot of his jumpers were short, which is a sign of fatigue. This is why I'm kind of hoping we can somehow still get RJ Hampton. We need another guy who can create offense. It seems like a long shot with Tre back, though.

This is really shaping up to be Tre Jones' team.

[FerryFor50]

Tre's DR% was 8.4%, which was 8th on the team out of our eight players with more than 400 minutes. Below is a chart showing Duke guards over the past 10 years and their defensive rebounding pct:

Player				DR%
RJ Barrett 2019			17.2%
Quinn Cook 2013			11.9%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2013		11.8%
Grayson Allen 2016		11.7%
Grayson Allen 2017 		11.3%
Cam Reddish 2019		10.7%
Luke Kennard 2016		10.7%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2015		10.3%
Nolan Smith 2011		10.1%
Andre Dawkins 2014		10.1%
Tyus Jones 2015			9.9%
Tyler Thornton 2013		9.9%
Rasheed Sulaimon 2014		9.3%
Andre Dawkins 2012		9.3%
Quinn Cook 2015			9.2%
Andre Dawkins 2010		8.6%
Jon Scheyer 2010		8.5%
Tre Jones 2019			8.4%
Frank Jackson 2017		8.3%
Luke Kennard 2017		8.2%
Andre Dawkins 2011		8.1%
Grayson Allen 2018		8.0%
Tyler Thornton 2014		7.9%
Tyler Thornton 2012		7.9%
Quinn Cook 2014			7.5%
Matt Jones 2015			7.4%
Seth Curry 2012			7.4%
Seth Curry 2013			7.3%
Jordan Goldwire 2019		7.0%
Kyrie Irving 2011		6.7%
Derryck Thornton 2016		6.5%
Matt Jones 2017			6.0%
Seth Curry 2011			6.0%
Nolan Smith 2010		5.8%
Matt Jones 2016			5.1%
Trevon Duval 2018		4.9%

Looks like Tre's defensive rebounding was pretty average for a Duke guard (and behind guys like Luke Kennard, Andre Dawkins, and brother Tyus, all of whom were somewhat subpar defenders). So his defensive rebounding wasn't a liability, but it's hard to call it one of his defensive strengths.

Honestly, I wonder how much of Tre’s defense was helped by having Zion helping out on traps and weakside blocked shots. Weren’t the Duke defensive numbers much worse overall without Zion than without Tre?

[Kedsy]

Honestly, I wonder how much of Tre’s defense was helped by having Zion helping out on traps and weakside blocked shots. Weren’t the Duke defensive numbers much worse overall without Zion than without Tre?

Duke's defensive numbers were less consistent without Zion, but I don't think I'd say they were worse (other than the Virginia Tech game, in which our defense was atrocious):

ADJUSTED dRATING
-------------------
WITHOUT TRE:
Syracuse: 1.00 ppp
Virginia: 0.94
Pitt: 0.93

WITHOUT ZION:
UNC I: 0.85
Syracuse II: 0.94
VaTech I: 1.07
Miami: 0.73
Wake II: 0.93
UNC II: 0.88

I think both Tre and Zion were legitimate defensive superstars this season. And Cam and Javin were pretty close to superstars.