2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[jimsumner]

Let me summarize my conversations with an NBA scout on Reddish.

His view was that Reddish hadn't figured out how to co-exist with Williamson and Barrett. In high school, Reddish was his team's primary option. If he started a move and it wasn't working, he would give up the ball, get it back and start all over again.

Clearly, that isn't the case with this team. He can't be so deferential that he concedes all the shots to Williamson and Barrett. But he can't be the primary option, either. So, he's not quite sure how and when to hunt for his shot, while playing with the presumptive two top picks in the 2019 draft.

This scout, BTW, was very high on Reddish's NBA future.

[CDu]

Ehh, I disagree that 1a and 1b can't be developed. Certainly, some players are just more naturally gifted with basketball IQ, but it's not something you either have or don't have, such as Cam's physical gifts: his excellent size, length, and explosiveness, which are all very good.

But my point is: people often talk about the "speed of the game" when adjusting to a new level of competition, and the game "slowing down" for players. That's development of basketball IQ. Learning to read and react to situations. It comes more quickly to some than others, and you're right that Cam has a long way to go in those areas, but he's shown enough flashes of his ability that convince me he'll get there eventually. And even if it's a slow process, I think just adding significant strength will address a lot of his current issues.

Even if he doesn't improve #1 and #2 (though dribbling is certainly something that can be improved), just the promise of improving on #3 and #4 make him worthy of a top 5 pick in this draft. His defense is legitimately good, and with his size and length, having a consistent, on balance jump shot to pair with his defensive ability will make him a long term NBA starter. I think that is his baseline, and he has potential to be much more than that.

I didn’t say it couldn’t be developed. Just that it is much harder to develop that side of the game. Dribbling is easier to develop than b-ball IQ. But harder than strength or shooting. All three are much easier to develop than feel/IQ. And remember: he isn’t up to snuff in that regard for the college game, let alone the pro game. So there is a long way to go there.

I agree that with just a consistent shot and defense he can be a solid 3 and D starter, and said as much. I think it is likely he gets there at least. My questions are whether he will develop into a Star at the next level. I think that is very much in question.

[dukelifer]

Let me summarize my conversations with an NBA scout on Reddish.

His view was that Reddish hadn't figured out how to co-exist with Williamson and Barrett. In high school, Reddish was his team's primary option. If he started a move and it wasn't working, he would give up the ball, get it back and start all over again.

Clearly, that isn't the case with this team. He can't be so deferential that he concedes all the shots to Williamson and Barrett. But he can't be the primary option, either. So, he's not quite sure how and when to hunt for his shot, while playing with the presumptive two top picks in the 2019 draft.

This scout, BTW, was very high on Reddish's NBA future.

He clearly is thinking too much out there. He does seem to play worse with both Zion and RJ on the floor. But his potential is undeniable and that alone is going to get him drafted high. But the next step is not an easy one. The NBA has swallowed up players who were not ready to compete with grown men. It can be unforgiving. Cam will have to figure this out. The benefit of playing in college is that you do so in a somewhat safer environment. I think it helped Grant Hill become a great pro. He too also tended to defer a bit. Cam may have been better in the old days with a more veteran squad.

[Dukehky]

He clearly is thinking too much out there. He does seem to play worse with both Zion and RJ on the floor. But his potential is undeniable and that alone is going to get him drafted high. But the next step is not an easy one. The NBA has swallowed up players who were not ready to compete with grown men. It can be unforgiving. Cam will have to figure this out. The benefit of playing in college is that you do so in a somewhat safer environment. I think it helped Grant Hill become a great pro. He too also tended to defer a bit. Cam may have been better in the old days with a more veteran squad.

He was really very good defensively most of the tournament. I think that's all the more impressive because he was so bad offensively, but he didn't let it affect him. He's due for a big game soon, I just hope he strings together a couple good ones over the next 3 weeks. I still think just about every shot he takes is going in. That is definitely not supported by the facts, but hope is nice.

[Saratoga2]

He was really very good defensively most of the tournament. I think that's all the more impressive because he was so bad offensively, but he didn't let it affect him. He's due for a big game soon, I just hope he strings together a couple good ones over the next 3 weeks. I still think just about every shot he takes is going in. That is definitely not supported by the facts, but hope is nice.

I hope for that as well but don't really expect it. He did hit his FTs last out, which was a good sign. His comfort level on the offensive side is not even close to either RJ or Zion and his shot mechanics also look like he could use coaching. Since neither AOC or Jack have shown they can contribute consistently from outside, we have to hope that Cam can have good outings.

[Saratoga2]

Everytime I hear our players talk about playing for Duke, I get convinced they are our best recruiters. Seeing stars like Zion and RJ talk about how they love playing here and how they are a brotherhood. I have to think our potential recruits listen to that and hear the genuine thoughts these kids express.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Everytime I hear our players talk about playing for Duke, I get convinced they are our best recruiters. Seeing stars like Zion and RJ talk about how they love playing here and how they are a brotherhood. I have to think our potential recruits listen to that and hear the genuine thoughts these kids express.

100% The Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, and Tyus Jones of 2015 are the reason we have Zion, R.J., Cam, and Tre today. And this class is going to lead to those next recruits. It is a virtuous cycle.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

100% The Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow, and Tyus Jones of 2015 are the reason we have Zion, R.J., Cam, and Tre today. And this class is going to lead to those next recruits. It is a virtuous cycle.

A++ for virtuous cycle!

[DavidBenAkiva]

Sorry to break up all the Cam Reddish talk, but we've got some actual recruiting news. Trendon Watford is working to setup a visit to Duke and is listing the Blue Devils among his final 5 schools. The other suitors include Alabama, Indiana, LSU, and Memphis. It seems that Watford might be looking to commit in April, at the Jordan Brand Classic in Las Vegas, NV.

Given the busy schedule for Duke, I wonder when a visit might occur. Hopefully, the next few weeks are off the table.

[Indoor66]

A++ for virtuous cycle!

Don't think anyone knocks virtuous. 😂

[Dukehky]

Sorry to break up all the Cam Reddish talk, but we've got some actual recruiting news. Trendon Watford is working to setup a visit to Duke and is listing the Blue Devils among his final 5 schools. The other suitors include Alabama, Indiana, LSU, and Memphis. It seems that Watford might be looking to commit in April, at the Jordan Brand Classic in Las Vegas, NV.

Given the busy schedule for Duke, I wonder when a visit might occur. Hopefully, the next few weeks are off the table.

I think this is due diligence in case we don't get Hurt, but I would bet no offer comes, if ever, unless Hurt goes somewhere else or there is an unexpected departure that is unforeseen at the moment.

I think Cassius Stanley is a more intense recruitment, especially if Tre goes pro. Although, I think RJ Hampton reclassifying is the better option there if he's wiling in that situation.

[killerleft]

Absolutely concur. It looks to me like Tre’s comfortable jumpshot range only extends about 15 feet. On his three-point attempts it looks like it’s more of a push than a legit, smooth jumpshot. It seems that he can barely get the ball to the rim. He might have to consider altering his form. It’s amazing how good he is without having much of a jumpshot. If he could just improve that one area he would be a dynamite pro.

And there's the rub, if we'd like to keep Tre. If the jumpshot is Tre's major deficiency, the pros have specialists, like Duke grad Chip Engelland, who are likely better equipped to help him. I used to think he was over-aiming on his shot, but I now believe that little hitch before he lets go is just a natural motion for him.

[frb]

regarding Tre Jones...

I wonder how much his brother's NBA career thus far will influence his decision...

You can argue Tyus went to the NBA too early and now he's at the end of his rookie scale deal. He won't be getting a big extension. Perhaps he will get the qualifying offer ($3.5 million for Jones). I wonder if Tyus thinks it would have been smarter to stay at Duke another year or two to develop his game. The first NBA contract isn't the life changer (unless you're high lottery), it's the second and third NBA contracts that will set your great grandkids up for life.

So why be in a rush to get to the NBA when you're not ready and you're not going to play much..meanwhile the clock is ticking on the rookie deal and when your restricted free agency comes up, your first time with leverage, you really have no leverage. You haven't really done anything yet because when you arrived you weren't ready.

or perhaps it's just about the money right now. It's hard to turn down 7 figures guaranteed for 2 years (all NBA rookie deals are 2+1+1 deals).

I think it makes economic sense for Tre to stay even if he's projected in the 20-30 range in the draft. Getting to the NBA ASAP isn't always the best path to maximize career earnings.

[FerryFor50]

Let me summarize my conversations with an NBA scout on Reddish.

His view was that Reddish hadn't figured out how to co-exist with Williamson and Barrett. In high school, Reddish was his team's primary option. If he started a move and it wasn't working, he would give up the ball, get it back and start all over again.

Clearly, that isn't the case with this team. He can't be so deferential that he concedes all the shots to Williamson and Barrett. But he can't be the primary option, either. So, he's not quite sure how and when to hunt for his shot, while playing with the presumptive two top picks in the 2019 draft.

This scout, BTW, was very high on Reddish's NBA future.

I wonder if it would have made sense this season to have Cam be the primary scorer on the floor while RJ and Zion get some rest for a few minutes at a time. Like the star of the "B" team.

[Kedsy]

regarding Tre Jones...

I wonder how much his brother's NBA career thus far will influence his decision...

You can argue Tyus went to the NBA too early and now he's at the end of his rookie scale deal. He won't be getting a big extension. Perhaps he will get the qualifying offer ($3.5 million for Jones). I wonder if Tyus thinks it would have been smarter to stay at Duke another year or two to develop his game. The first NBA contract isn't the life changer (unless you're high lottery), it's the second and third NBA contracts that will set your great grandkids up for life.

So why be in a rush to get to the NBA when you're not ready and you're not going to play much..meanwhile the clock is ticking on the rookie deal and when your restricted free agency comes up, your first time with leverage, you really have no leverage. You haven't really done anything yet because when you arrived you weren't ready.

or perhaps it's just about the money right now. It's hard to turn down 7 figures guaranteed for 2 years (all NBA rookie deals are 2+1+1 deals).

I think it makes economic sense for Tre to stay even if he's projected in the 20-30 range in the draft. Getting to the NBA ASAP isn't always the best path to maximize career earnings.

Tyus Jones is a millionaire at age 22 and there's no chance of him not getting a second contract of some sort. If his career so far influences his brother, it would probably convince Tre to enter the draft. Obviously, we have no idea if Tyus has been as happy as a pro than he was at Duke, or how much happiness will be factored in by Tre, but my guess is if Tre is likely to go first round, he's likely to go.

[COYS]

I wonder if it would have made sense this season to have Cam be the primary scorer on the floor while RJ and Zion get some rest for a few minutes at a time. Like the star of the "B" team.

This is an intriguing idea in a vacuum. If we played 48 minute, high-tempo NBA games, this might be worth exploring. However, in the 40 minute college game with regular TV timeouts, I sincerely doubt Coach K will take RJ and Zion off the floor for anymore than a few minutes per game, especially as Zion gets back into full game shape (which, if he wasn't all the way back in game shape for the ACCT, then opposing teams should really fear him being even more fit!). Also, I don't think it's worth taking Cam's defense off the floor with the first team to try and make him a "B" team offensive star when the "B" team would be so lacking in offensive firepower that teams would more or less only need to guard Cam. It actually might make his struggles worse.

I've been a big Cam fan all season. I really thought his offense would progress more than it has and that he would become more of a playmaker off the dribble. However, his offense has been much slower to develop than his defense. Personally, I'm ok making him a low-to-medium usage spot-up shooter who can attack the hoop opportunistically and is the fourth option to handle the ball behind Tre, RJ, and Zion. That's essentially the role he played against FSU and it was a fantastic game for him. Zero turnovers. All of his drives were more or less under control and led to free throws. He missed his threes, save for that dagger towards the end of the game. But even with those misses, his offensive rating was 118 for the game thanks to zero turnovers. His overall usage rate was 13%. That's a perfect spot for him, in my opinion. 15% usage rate (which is easier to achieve if he has low turnover totals since turnovers count towards usage rate) while taking 8-12 shots with most of those being threes. Then he can concentrate on being a terror on the defensive end. And hopefully he still has a few more games (like, maybe six) in which he gets hot from three and cashes in those spot-up opportunities.

[KandG]

I am not sold on Reddish. I think he has a quite a few issues to overcome, some achievable and some of real concern:
1a. Guile/savvy: this is related to what you said; he doesn't have any guile to his game; he's a straight-line, one-pace driver at this point
1b. Bball IQ: along with the lack of guile, he doesn't seem to know when to do what. He's constantly making his decisions in advance regardless of the defense, and they are often bad decisions.
2. His dribbling: it's way too sloppy. He has no tightness to his handle. It's loose, it's too high, and it is often careless.
3. His shooting: he has a decent touch in a standstill shot. But he's just REALLY inconsistent in his prep and release on the jumpshot. Good shooters are able to replicate their form over and over again. Reddish doesn't seem to do that; he drifts in all directions, doesn't find himself in the same squared position at release, etc
4. Physical strength: this one he can develop, but he certainly doesn't have the physicality to go into traffic.

I think 3 and 4 can be worked out with time. And if so, he becomes a potentially great 3-and-D player. But 1a, 1b, and 2 are much harder to develop skills. Especially 1a and 1b. He just doesn't seem to have a great feel for the game at all. And that's a concern with regard to him getting to stardom at the NBA level. The stars are either really smart players who can recognize an advantage situation innately and punish it, or they are so physically dominant that they can overcome bball IQ issues.

I have to go along with kAzE here that I do think 1a and 1b can be worked on. Some of Cam's moves to generate a stepback jumper are remarkably crafted for such a young player (though given his inexperience, his footwork could be improved and he benefits from his height in getting the jumper off). He does have some guile, but he's not close to elite yet in reading the defense's reaction to his moves in tight spaces.

I'm with those who feel Cam's especially hindered by playing with two of the best offensive players in the country, and that his leash is just shorter with his more limited role on offense. With that said, I think CDu's point 3 is interesting: for someone with the reputation of being such a quality shooter, I find I rarely believe Cam's going to go a hot streak, even when he makes a jumper or free throw. The inconsistent way his shots miss and the general drifting on the shot are red flags, though again that can be coached at the next level.

[golfinesquire]

For what it is worth, Sam Vecenie has a pre-NCAA tournament 2019 mock draft up in The Athletic. It has Cam going at #5.

[CDu]

For what it is worth, Sam Vecenie has a pre-NCAA tournament 2019 mock draft up in The Athletic. It has Cam going at #5.

Oh yeah, he is absolutely going to be a lottery pick. That part isn’t really in question.

[JayZee]

regarding Tre Jones...

I wonder how much his brother's NBA career thus far will influence his decision...

You can argue Tyus went to the NBA too early and now he's at the end of his rookie scale deal. He won't be getting a big extension. Perhaps he will get the qualifying offer ($3.5 million for Jones). I wonder if Tyus thinks it would have been smarter to stay at Duke another year or two to develop his game. The first NBA contract isn't the life changer (unless you're high lottery), it's the second and third NBA contracts that will set your great grandkids up for life.

So why be in a rush to get to the NBA when you're not ready and you're not going to play much..meanwhile the clock is ticking on the rookie deal and when your restricted free agency comes up, your first time with leverage, you really have no leverage. You haven't really done anything yet because when you arrived you weren't ready.

or perhaps it's just about the money right now. It's hard to turn down 7 figures guaranteed for 2 years (all NBA rookie deals are 2+1+1 deals).

I think it makes economic sense for Tre to stay even if he's projected in the 20-30 range in the draft. Getting to the NBA ASAP isn't always the best path to maximize career earnings.

100% Agreed. Someone at Fuqua should be able to help to create some sort of risk adjusted present value calculation that accounts for basketball skills and development at Duke versus the NBA.

Maybe the "point" is, for a smaller player like Tre, you gotta be ready to contribute pretty soon at the NBA level, or you will get discarded and will have a much tougher road. The NBA will have more patience for physical specimens that for the little guys.