Redick to the Sixers

[JNort]

I don't think Klay Thompson qualifies as a "LEGIT superstar," especially if you look at his advanced stats. He's a heckuva fourth-best player, though.

He's frequently ranked as one of the top 15 to 20 players in the league.

[Kedsy]

He's frequently ranked as one of the top 15 to 20 players in the league.

That may be, but his PER in 2016-17 was 87th in the NBA; his true shooting percentage was 77th; his win shares per 48 was 95th; his box-plus-minus was a three-way tie for 124th and his VORP was a seven-way tie for 73rd. His assist% was 269th; his rebound% was 390th; his steal% was 335th; and his block% was 247th.

If you'd rather look at per36 numbers, his per36 scoring was 23rd in the NBA (which is good, but still behind, among others, Lou Williams, Enes Kanter, Brook Lopez, and Kemba Walker, none of whom I would consider superstars); per36 rebounding was 372nd; per36 assisting was 274th; per36 stealing was 302nd; and per36 blocking was 258th.

He has a strong defensive reputation, but he didn't make either 1st or 2nd NBA All-Defensive team in any of the past three seasons (he would have been 3rd team the past two seasons, if such an honor existed).

So, he's a top 15 guy on defense, a top 25 scorer, and a top 100 guy based on metrics. That's a really good player, but doesn't sound to me like a "LEGIT superstar." YMMV.

[sagegrouse]

That may be, but his PER in 2016-17 was 87th in the NBA; his true shooting percentage was 77th; his win shares per 48 was 95th; his box-plus-minus was a three-way tie for 124th and his VORP was a seven-way tie for 73rd. His assist% was 269th; his rebound% was 390th; his steal% was 335th; and his block% was 247th.

If you'd rather look at per36 numbers, his per36 scoring was 23rd in the NBA (which is good, but still behind, among others, Lou Williams, Enes Kanter, Brook Lopez, and Kemba Walker, none of whom I would consider superstars); per36 rebounding was 372nd; per36 assisting was 274th; per36 stealing was 302nd; and per36 blocking was 258th.

He has a strong defensive reputation, but he didn't make either 1st or 2nd NBA All-Defensive team in any of the past three seasons (he would have been 3rd team the past two seasons, if such an honor existed).

So, he's a top 15 guy on defense, a top 25 scorer, and a top 100 guy based on metrics. That's a really good player, but doesn't sound to me like a "LEGIT superstar." YMMV.

These darned pronouns are killing me. I finally figured out this wasn't about JJ.

[Troublemaker]

Edit: Darn you, Troublemaker and your fast fingers. Because I spent time on my post I'm leaving it here

Early bird gets the worm, tbyers!

[SilkyJ]

Question for the NBA experts on the board... why just a 1-year deal with JJ and Philly?

From Philly's perspective

• The Sixers want to maintain cap room for 2018 free agency, so they are only offering 1-year deals to free agents (at least to costly free agents). If Fultz, Simmons, and Embiid show promise this season, it's not unthinkable that Philly could land a big-name free agent next summer.
• In order to still land free agents THIS summer, since players are usually looking for longer-term security, the Sixers are paying a premium on the 1-year deal. If JJ were to sign a 3-year-contract with someone else, his annual salary would probably be more in the neighborhood of $16M. So $23M looks pretty nice for that 1 year. Likewise, Amir Johnson would not receive $11M annually on a long-term deal.
• JJ is 33 years old. For now he's a great shooter / okay defender, but pretty soon, he's going to be a great shooter / bad defender.

From JJ's perspective

• I think if JJ had been willing to go to a bad team like the Nets or Kings, he probably could've eventually landed a 3 year, $45M contract from somebody (because shooting ages nicely). But JJ wasn't willing to waste his Age 33 to 35 seasons of his career on an irrelevant team. It's not that the Sixers are a good team yet, but they are highly relevant next season. Everybody will be excited to see what the young core looks like, and the Sixers should be able to contend for the playoffs in the weak East.
• It's very flattering to be entrusted with the role of mentor/leader to a bunch of young studs. Not just anyone would get this offer from Philly. Again, relevancy is important, and JJ is very relevant next season now.
• JJ's willing to bet on himself and enter the market again next season. If all goes well this season, maybe Philly will give him a long-term deal, or if not, maybe there will be another relevant team with cap room willing to give him years.

I basically agree with all of this as a response to Newton's question. I had the same question--why not take a 2-3 year deal, especially when the Twolves were interested as well, reportedly. I get saying no to the Nets, but the Twolves are very similar to the 6ers in the west--lots of good young talent, considered a major up and comer, and they just added a superstar that could make them real players in the west in the next couple years. That's the one thing I didn't fully understand, although Jimmy Butler is a wing guard (sometimes WF) so JJ would almost definitely have been coming off the bench there. JJ will almost certainly start for the 6ers.

To those of you who follow NBA closely..Legit shot at playoff for Sixers?

If they — and by they I mean Embiid — stay healthy? Absolutely. Especially in the East.

I'm tempted to say yes, but realistically its tough to know. Their core 3 of Embiid, Fultz, and Simmons has played a grand total of ~30 games. Of course, with just Embiid last year and a mediocre supporting cast they went something like 13-12 over the course of December & January. You would think that an infusion of talent including two #1 overall picks would certainly improve their talent, but even good rookies struggle a bit when placed right into staring roles. The RoY last year was brogdon who mostly came off the bench and averaged 12ppg.

The east isn't super strong so they have a legit shot to be in the 6/7/8 conversation, but my guess is it will be close. In 1-2 years though, I fully expect them to be in the top half of the east.

That may be, but his PER in 2016-17 was 87th in the NBA; his true shooting percentage was 77th; his win shares per 48 was 95th; his box-plus-minus was a three-way tie for 124th and his VORP was a seven-way tie for 73rd. His assist% was 269th; his rebound% was 390th; his steal% was 335th; and his block% was 247th.

If you'd rather look at per36 numbers, his per36 scoring was 23rd in the NBA (which is good, but still behind, among others, Lou Williams, Enes Kanter, Brook Lopez, and Kemba Walker, none of whom I would consider superstars); per36 rebounding was 372nd; per36 assisting was 274th; per36 stealing was 302nd; and per36 blocking was 258th.

He has a strong defensive reputation, but he didn't make either 1st or 2nd NBA All-Defensive team in any of the past three seasons (he would have been 3rd team the past two seasons, if such an honor existed).

So, he's a top 15 guy on defense, a top 25 scorer, and a top 100 guy based on metrics. That's a really good player, but doesn't sound to me like a "LEGIT superstar." YMMV.

Focusing on Klay's stats in 2016-2017 and not over the course of the last 3 years is not fair and you know it--you know perfectly well that he sacrificied his stats in 2017, as did everyone else on the warriors to win a title. In '16, for example, he was 15th in scoring per 36 (up from 23rd in '17), 6th in 3pt%, etc. I bet if you re-run the numbers for '15 & '16 he looks much better. Shame on you for cherry picking last year's numbers only.

Moreover, the advanced stats don't tell enough of the story here. Klay is an All-NBA player, Olympian, and is one of the best scorers and shooters in the league. At time he would carry a team that had the MVP on it (anyone remember Game 6 against the thunder in '16? or when he scored 37 points in quarter?)

Klay is a beast on offense and a stalwart defender to boot. After sweeping the west Klay was 3rd overall in defensive rating in the playoffs. I think he's safely in the top 20 players in the L.

[Troublemaker]

I basically agree with all of this as a response to Newton's question. I had the same question--why not take a 2-3 year deal, especially when the Twolves were interested as well, reportedly. I get saying no to the Nets, but the Twolves are very similar to the 6ers in the west--lots of good young talent, considered a major up and comer, and they just added a superstar that could make them real players in the west in the next couple years. That's the one thing I didn't fully understand, although Jimmy Butler is a wing guard (sometimes WF) so JJ would almost definitely have been coming off the bench there. JJ will almost certainly start for the 6ers.

Yep, like you said, JJ would've been coming off the bench for the Wolves, most likely.

Also:
(1) Taj Gibson used up all of Minny's cap space with his 2 year, 28 million dollar deal. Would you rather have 2 years, 28 million or 1 year, 23 million?

(2) Philly is only 2 hours away from JJ's Brooklyn penthouse home. I'm not sure how he and his family will set things up, but one possibility is that his wife and son will live in the Brooklyn home and then occasionally make it to his home games. (A hassle for the rest of us, but for the very wealthy like JJ, I'm thinking at least a car service and perhaps a charter plane that the Sixers set up for his family.) With a 1-year contract, JJ himself will probably live in an apartment near the practice facility.

[Kedsy]

Focusing on Klay's stats in 2016-2017 and not over the course of the last 3 years is not fair and you know it--you know perfectly well that he sacrificied his stats in 2017, as did everyone else on the warriors to win a title. In '16, for example, he was 15th in scoring per 36 (up from 23rd in '17), 6th in 3pt%, etc. I bet if you re-run the numbers for '15 & '16 he looks much better. Shame on you for cherry picking last year's numbers only.

In 2015-16, Klay's advanced stats didn't look that much different than in 2016-17:

PER: 66th (just behind Ed Davis and John Henson and just ahead of Clint Capela);
True shooting %: 52nd;
win shares per 48: 84th;
box plus/minus: 117th;
VORP: 68th (just behind Chandler Parsons, Aaron Gordon, and Marcin Gortat);
rebound%: 357th;
assist%: 248th;
steal%: 361st;
block%: 211th.

I'll grant you his advanced stats in 2014-15 were excellent, but that's one year out of his career (and if that's all you're relying on, then who's cherry-picking?).

But, yeah, shame on me.

[DukeTrinity11]

In 2015-16, Klay's advanced stats didn't look that much different than in 2016-17:

PER: 66th (just behind Ed Davis and John Henson and just ahead of Clint Capela);
True shooting %: 52nd;
win shares per 48: 84th;
box plus/minus: 117th;
VORP: 68th (just behind Chandler Parsons, Aaron Gordon, and Marcin Gortat);
rebound%: 357th;
assist%: 248th;
steal%: 361st;
block%: 211th.

I'll grant you his advanced stats in 2014-15 were excellent, but that's one year out of his career (and if that's all you're relying on, then who's cherry-picking?).

But, yeah, shame on me.

Eye test, Kedsy, eye test.

Klay is ranked 4th in RPM for the SG position after Butler, Harden and Ginobili. After discounting Manu since he seems to be playing efficiently on fewer minutes unlike Klay who is playing bonafide starter minutes, the most highly touted advanced stat out there suggests Klay is the 3rd best SG in the NBA.

You could maybe argue Beal, DeRozan and McCollum as being better than Klay but I don't think any of those guys are as complete of a player as Klay is.

We can argue semantics all day but its clear Klay is a star and at the very least a top 25 player in the NBA.

[phaedrus]

And thus was a war fought over whether Klay Thompson was the 13th-best player in the NBA, or merely the 19th-best. It was far from the dumbest war fought.

[Indoor66]

And thus was a war fought over whether Klay Thompson was the 13th-best player in the NBA, or merely the 19th-best. It was far from the dumbest war fought.

This IS DBR. We can have a Donnybrook over whether the Sun will rise tomorrow and then move on to whether the event will happen in the West or the East.

[NSDukeFan]

This IS DBR. We can have a Donnybrook over whether the Sun will rise tomorrow and then move on to whether the event will happen in the West or the East.

Since many of the East's best players have gone out west, I don't think any of the teams in the East will rise to the level of the West's.

[JasonEvans]

This IS DBR. We can have a Donnybrook over whether the Sun will rise tomorrow and then move on to whether the event will happen in the West or the East.

Are you saying the North has been completely ruled out here? My friend, I have one thing to say to you...

[mgtr]

Are you saying the North has been completely ruled out here? My friend, I have one thing to say to you...

If you are talking about the War of Northern Aggression, I thought it was the south that remembered.

[Furniture]

John Snow is the King of the North!!

[Pghdukie]

Bird in the hands worth ??

[YmoBeThere]

John Snow is the King of the North!!

I thought he was Treasury Secretary?

[Kedsy]

Eye test, Kedsy, eye test.

Klay is ranked 4th in RPM for the SG position after Butler, Harden and Ginobili. After discounting Manu since he seems to be playing efficiently on fewer minutes unlike Klay who is playing bonafide starter minutes, the most highly touted advanced stat out there suggests Klay is the 3rd best SG in the NBA.

You could maybe argue Beal, DeRozan and McCollum as being better than Klay but I don't think any of those guys are as complete of a player as Klay is.

We can argue semantics all day but its clear Klay is a star and at the very least a top 25 player in the NBA.

I don't know much about ESPN's "real plus-minus" stat, but if you do I'll take your word that it's a highly touted and well-conceived advanced stat. It's interesting that Klay was ranked 4th among SGs in 2016-17, since he was 44th overall. Maybe SGs don't perform so well in that stat, or maybe it was a 2017 anomaly. In 2015-16, he was 65th overall (8th best SG), and in 2014-15 he was 30th overall (but still 8th best SG).

But even so, being 44th, 65th, and 30th in his past (and best) three seasons doesn't scream either "LEGIT superstar" or "at least a top 25 player in the NBA," or at least it doesn't to me. Whatever, he is a three-time All-Star and a two-time third-team All NBA, so maybe you all are right.

[SilkyJ]

In 2015-16, Klay's advanced stats didn't look that much different than in 2016-17:

PER: 66th (just behind Ed Davis and John Henson and just ahead of Clint Capela);
True shooting %: 52nd;
win shares per 48: 84th;
box plus/minus: 117th;
VORP: 68th (just behind Chandler Parsons, Aaron Gordon, and Marcin Gortat);
rebound%: 357th;
assist%: 248th;
steal%: 361st;
block%: 211th.

I'll grant you his advanced stats in 2014-15 were excellent, but that's one year out of his career (and if that's all you're relying on, then who's cherry-picking?).

But, yeah, shame on me.

I don't know much about ESPN's "real plus-minus" stat, but if you do I'll take your word that it's a highly touted and well-conceived advanced stat. It's interesting that Klay was ranked 4th among SGs in 2016-17, since he was 44th overall. Maybe SGs don't perform so well in that stat, or maybe it was a 2017 anomaly. In 2015-16, he was 65th overall (8th best SG), and in 2014-15 he was 30th overall (but still 8th best SG).

But even so, being 44th, 65th, and 30th in his past (and best) three seasons doesn't scream either "LEGIT superstar" or "at least a top 25 player in the NBA," or at least it doesn't to me. Whatever, he is a three-time All-Star and a two-time third-team All NBA, so maybe you all are right.

I am generally a fan of data & stats, but this may be a circumstance where the advanced stats fail us--not too dissimilar from your framework for projecting minutes based on RSCI ranking. 80-90% of the time its pretty usable, but you simply can't account for every circumstance.

Klay plays on a team where he is asked to fill very specific roles. The dubs have 4 olympians on their team so he doesn't have to do everything (actually, steph didn't make it in 2012 and chose not to play in 2016, but still, they have 4 guys that would make team USA. That's incredible.) Klay is asked to shoot 3s and shoot them a lot. And he's asked to defend the other team's best guard/wing. He does both of them outstandingly well.

For example, you said he's 52nd in TS%--what if you ran those numbers just for guards and/or guys who shot a certain % of their shots from 3? I bet he jumps way up.

Relying on the advanced stats here doesn't seem to tell the full story. The warriors went to back-to-back finals, won 73 games, and set several other records with Klay as the #2 option to Steph in '15 & '16, pre-Durant. The dude is legit.

[dball]

I thought this thread was about Clay.

[camion]

I thought this thread was about Clay.

Isn't it really all about play dough?