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  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Anybody watch the championship? That was the only game I watched. Pretty fun with a back and forth affair but actually the ending wasn't as dramatic with the Ohio St alumni taking control and then winning on FTs which isn't as much fun. Regardless, I like the ending personally.
    Agree it seems anticlimactic at first, but then I thought about the pressure of stepping to the line knowing you can end the game right there. Could you make a free throw with $2 million on the line? Kind of like a last-minute penalty kick in soccer. It really amps up the pressure.

  2. #122
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    Anybody watch the championship? That was the only game I watched. Pretty fun with a back and forth affair but actually the ending wasn't as dramatic with the Ohio St alumni taking control and then winning on FTs which isn't as much fun. Regardless, I like the ending personally.
    I watched the final. I thought that, despite the somewhat anti-climatic ending of the Ohio State alumni winning the game with a made free throw, the Elam Ending probably provided a better finish (from a casual viewer's perspective) than what would likely have happened with the normal rules.

    Based on this play-by-play description, it appears that Buford's game winning free throw put the Ohio State team up by 6 with what would have been 1:10 on the clock in a normal game. If there was still 1:10 left on the clock, I would expect a "normal" game to end with a series of increasingly more desperate three point attempts by the Marquette team, followed by a series of time consuming series trips to the free throw line by Ohio State (interrupted by a several timeouts by both coaches). Now if Marquette made a couple threes and Ohio State missed a couple free throws, this might have led to a more compelling viewing experience. However, the odds a pretty good that a "normal" game would have taken 10+ minutes of real time without ever getting closer than 4 points. At some point, if I was a casual viewer, I might change the channel during one of the commercial breaks and not go back.

    ####################

    One other thing that occurred to me last night is that, while the Elam Ending succeeds in removing the incentive for the trailing team to foul intentionally, I wonder if it creates scenarios where the leading team has an incentive to foul intentionally. For example, in last night's game, Marquette had the ball needing 6 points to win. At this point, Ohio State only needed 2 points (one basket) to win. Marquette's best chance of winning probably involved making a pair of 3 pointers and getting one defensive stop.

    If I am Ohio State, why not foul intentionally every time Marquette gets the ball? If this happens, Marquette's best chance is probably to make all their free throws. Even if this happens, Ohio State is guaranteed to get at least two possessions to get the one basket they need to win. More realistically, Marquette is probably going to miss at least one free throw (a 70% shooter only has about a 10% chance of making six in a row). In this case Ohio State gets now gets at least three possessions to make the one basket they need.

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    Agree it seems anticlimactic at first, but then I thought about the pressure of stepping to the line knowing you can end the game right there. Could you make a free throw with $2 million on the line? Kind of like a last-minute penalty kick in soccer. It really amps up the pressure.
    I suppose the closest the Elam Ending gets to the feeling of a do-or-die buzzer beater is when each team is within one basket of winning. While no single shot is going to be win or lose the game, the stakes are very high for each possession.

    I guess this scenario probably feels somewhat like Duke's final possession versus Kansas in 2018. If Grayson's shot goes in, Duke wins. If he misses, the game goes on. If you compound that feeling over a couple possessions (if each team keeps getting stops) and you get some pretty good drama. But still nothing like the drama of the Laettner or Heyward shots.

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    Agree it seems anticlimactic at first, but then I thought about the pressure of stepping to the line knowing you can end the game right there. Could you make a free throw with $2 million on the line? Kind of like a last-minute penalty kick in soccer. It really amps up the pressure.
    But uh...isn't ending the game at the free throw line supposed to be what the Elam ending solves? I thought we had (apparently) decided that wasn't an acceptable ending.

  5. #125
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    But uh...isn't ending the game at the free throw line supposed to be what the Elam ending solves? I thought we had (apparently) decided that wasn't an acceptable ending.
    I think itís trying to end the all too common parade of free throws...

    -jk

  6. #126
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    I think it’s trying to end the all too common parade of free throws...

    -jk

    Sorry, I was just kind of being tongue in cheek ("free throws at the end of games are terrible, but this free throw at the end of the game was what basketball is all about!"), I do understand that. I just think the Elam ending is a bad solution. Neat, but not something I want to see 30-60 times a year or whatever while watching basketball.

  7. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Sorry, I was just kind of being tongue in cheek ("free throws at the end of games are terrible, but this free throw at the end of the game was what basketball is all about!"), I do understand that. I just think the Elam ending is a bad solution. Neat, but not something I want to see 30-60 times a year or whatever while watching basketball.
    That's a fair point.

    I was trying to come up with a comparison of a game where un-timed free throws decided the outcome. The only one I could think of was the 2005 Conference USA finals, which is one of the most agonizing, gut-wrenching things I've ever seen on a basketball court:



    Not sure how this evidence weighs in favor or against the Elam ending, just wanted to point out this historical precedent.

  8. #128
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Truth&Justise View Post
    That's a fair point.

    I was trying to come up with a comparison of a game where un-timed free throws decided the outcome. The only one I could think of was the 2005 Conference USA finals, which is one of the most agonizing, gut-wrenching things I've ever seen on a basketball court:



    Not sure how this evidence weighs in favor or against the Elam ending, just wanted to point out this historical precedent.
    Darius Washington's miss in the aforementioned game inspired a Phish song, "The Line". It's not their best song, but interesting source material:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5OcUhg2ttOM

  9. #129
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    I watched the final. I thought that, despite the somewhat anti-climatic ending of the Ohio State alumni winning the game with a made free throw, the Elam Ending probably provided a better finish (from a casual viewer's perspective) than what would likely have happened with the normal rules.

    Based on this play-by-play description, it appears that Buford's game winning free throw put the Ohio State team up by 6 with what would have been 1:10 on the clock in a normal game. If there was still 1:10 left on the clock, I would expect a "normal" game to end with a series of increasingly more desperate three point attempts by the Marquette team, followed by a series of time consuming series trips to the free throw line by Ohio State (interrupted by a several timeouts by both coaches). Now if Marquette made a couple threes and Ohio State missed a couple free throws, this might have led to a more compelling viewing experience. However, the odds a pretty good that a "normal" game would have taken 10+ minutes of real time without ever getting closer than 4 points. At some point, if I was a casual viewer, I might change the channel during one of the commercial breaks and not go back.

    ####################

    One other thing that occurred to me last night is that, while the Elam Ending succeeds in removing the incentive for the trailing team to foul intentionally, I wonder if it creates scenarios where the leading team has an incentive to foul intentionally. For example, in last night's game, Marquette had the ball needing 6 points to win. At this point, Ohio State only needed 2 points (one basket) to win. Marquette's best chance of winning probably involved making a pair of 3 pointers and getting one defensive stop.

    If I am Ohio State, why not foul intentionally every time Marquette gets the ball? If this happens, Marquette's best chance is probably to make all their free throws. Even if this happens, Ohio State is guaranteed to get at least two possessions to get the one basket they need to win. More realistically, Marquette is probably going to miss at least one free throw (a 70% shooter only has about a 10% chance of making six in a row). In this case Ohio State gets now gets at least three possessions to make the one basket they need.


    Kidding aside, this is a really interesting angle I hadn't thought about while casually following this thread since it resurfaced. It seems to make sense for the winning team to foul in the scenario you described. I guess it's somewhat similar to the winning team fouling intentionally while up three to prevent the losing team from having the ability to tie the game with one shot. But with the Elam ending, that strategy could play out over a greater number of possessions if the winning team struggles to get those final points.

  10. #130
    I know the bookmakers would find a way but seems like it would be more difficult to handicap games this way. A lot of people are still watching 21 point blowouts with bated breath and every made or missed free throw is meaningful. Letís not underestimate how much gambling drives revenue for televised sporting events.

  11. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    I know the bookmakers would find a way but seems like it would be more difficult to handicap games this way. A lot of people are still watching 21 point blowouts with bated breath and every made or missed free throw is meaningful. Let’s not underestimate how much gambling drives revenue for televised sporting events.
    I think the Elam Ending is perfect for bookmakers. They will still be able to handicap games and additionally there will be plenty of live betting opportunities once the Elam Ending's target score is set. People will still be watching 21 point blowouts with bated breath. I think the Elam Ending could have an impact on the over/under. With less intentional fouling at the end of games, point totals should be lower on average.

  12. #132
    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Kidding aside, this is a really interesting angle I hadn't thought about while casually following this thread since it resurfaced. It seems to make sense for the winning team to foul in the scenario you described. I guess it's somewhat similar to the winning team fouling intentionally while up three to prevent the losing team from having the ability to tie the game with one shot. But with the Elam ending, that strategy could play out over a greater number of possessions if the winning team struggles to get those final points.

    Ah yes, the law of unintended consequences rearing its head.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

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