Elam's Main Point: 'Fouling' Almost Never Works
Elam has three main points:
- Foul-fests in futile attempts to overcome a lead are awful experiences for the fans.
- Intentional fouling rarely results in a changed outcome. So, the pain is pointless.
- The Elam Ending would solve the problem -- by making the goal the number of points scored and get rid of the game clock (but not the shot clock).
OK. Lots of people on this thread hate #3. I am skeptical but would like to see it tried somewhere.
My main interest in this post (#10,003 on DBR, but who's counting?) is point #2. Here's the excerpt from the Zach Lowe ESPN story:
Elam has tracked thousands of NBA, college, and international games over the last four years and found basketball's classic comeback tactic -- intentional fouling -- almost never results in successful comebacks. Elam found at least one deliberate crunch-time foul from trailing teams in 397 of 877 nationally televised NBA games from 2014 through the middle of this season, according to a PowerPoint presentation he has sent across the basketball world. The trailing team won zero of those games, according to Elam's data.
That undersells the effectiveness of the strategy, of course. Elam's sample doesn't include most NBA games. There were a lot of instances in which fouling teams came from behind to tie games, but lost later.
Still: The process was ugly, and it rarely upended outcomes. It didn't seem worth it to Elam. "Comebacks are just so startlingly rare," Elam said. "And the method teams used to get there was so artificial and unsightly." He would devise a better way.
"...in 397 of 877 nationally televised NBA games from 2014 through the middle of this season ... [t]he trailing team won zero of those games, according to Elam's data.
The "foul-fest strategy" worked ZERO times out of 397. Is that really true? Then, maybe we should shoot the losing coach who tries this strategy if it is painful to watch and doesn't change the outcome. I wonder if Elam's data are correct, and what the comparable data are for college hoops.
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013