Top Movies of Summer 2017

[davekay1971]

I don't think we should start underestimating Pixar. Before I saw Toy Story 3, I considered it too late and unnecessary, but it was ultimately a film worth making. (I did not love it because I am wise to their primary directive of making adults cry.) Now, we have a Cars 3 which is too late and unnecessary, and yet...

The teaser and the trailer pretty clearly tell us one thing: this is not like Cars 2. We are going back to basics. We will remind you of Hudson Hornet. We will keep Mater to a minimum. We are not making the movie to sell merchandise, though you may notice our Disney Stores are suddenly well stocked with Cars 3 stuff.

How you feel about Cars 3 should reflect how you felt about the first one. I thought it was fine but not that memorable. That said, I'm low on excitement and often in the minority that way.

I thought, excluding perhaps The Good Dinosaur, Cars (Doc Hollywood on Wheels) was the least inspired and least inspiring of the Pixar original movies (meaning movies that weren't sequels). I am aware that the sequel was made for two reasons: (1) Cars was always a pet project of John Lasseter; and (2) Cars made LOTS of merchandising bank. But the sequel was uniformly worse than the first. Unlike Toy Story 3, which followed a classic first entry and very good second entry, Cars follows a mediocre first entry and bad second entry. I'm just not convinced the basic world of Cars allows for a really good movie to be made. I will be paying attention to the reviews, but I'm honestly a little sad, having kids in the prime Pixar age range, that my summer choices for kids are Captain Underpants, another DM movie, and another Cars movie.

[JasonEvans]

I thought, excluding perhaps The Good Dinosaur, Cars (Doc Hollywood on Wheels) was the least inspired and least inspiring of the Pixar original movies (meaning movies that weren't sequels). I am aware that the sequel was made for two reasons: (1) Cars was always a pet project of John Lasseter; and (2) Cars made LOTS of merchandising bank. But the sequel was uniformly worse than the first. Unlike Toy Story 3, which followed a classic first entry and very good second entry, Cars follows a mediocre first entry and bad second entry. I'm just not convinced the basic world of Cars allows for a really good movie to be made. I will be paying attention to the reviews, but I'm honestly a little sad, having kids in the prime Pixar age range, that my summer choices for kids are Captain Underpants, another DM movie, and another Cars movie.

Turn out the lights at home, pop some popcorn, and plop them down with DVDs or Netflix to watch some decent kids stuff. There is a DVD of all the Pixar short films that is just amazing!



-Jason "for the record, I am not sandbagging about Cars 3... no chance I vote for it" Evans

[Udaman]

Votes are in.

Three are absolute locks in my mind:

1. Galaxy. No brainer.

2. Despicable Me 3. No brainer

3. SpiderMan. Mostly a no brainer (but only because of the Avengers connection...and that Spiderman was a great addition to CA - Civil War).

so that left me with a bunch of movies that could certainly end up in the Top 5: Aliens, Wonder Woman, Dunkirk, Cars 3, Planet of Apes, Pirates.

In the end went with

4. Pirates. All of the other movies made north of $200M, and this one has Javier Bardem. And this is a series that my teenage daughters absolutely love...as does my son. I think kids 20 and under will want to see it.

As for #5....went with Field. Why? Because I don't think Aliens will get to the top 5, because Wonder Woman is DC Comics, and they haven't made a good movie since they lucked into Heith Ledger as the Joker, because Dunkirk is a war movie in a time when millions of American's aren't really feeling that patriotic and are worried about war, because Cars 3 can't be much better than Cars 2 and Cars 2 was awful, and because Planet of the Apes just doesn't seem to appeal to enough people to get there. So I'm pulling for a darkhorse...realizing that even if one does make it into the Top 5, it likely will likely be at Pirates (or Spidermans) expense...because I never go 5 for 5. Ever.

[Olympic Fan]

Tough for me in the summer ... because there are so many strong franchises that I just don't get. The Transformers are a good example ... I just can't imagine any adult (even young adult) paing to see one of these ... but they do. Pirates is only a little better.

Obviously, Guardians in the one absolute lock. Didn't somebody really leave it off their picks? I'd love to hear the explanation for that.

I've never liked Spiderman, but the connection to the Avengers (and the appearance of Iron Man) make it a lock.

I know Wonder Woman is DC, but while on the whole DC movies tend to be inferior to Marvel Movies, several recent DC movies have made big money (especially the terrible Batman vs. Superman, which featured Wonder Woman)

I think Despicable Me 3 is the strongest of the kid movies and at least one will be in the top five.

I feel pretty good about those four, but after that, I don't know. I think Transformers and Pirates are both running out of steam a little bit. The Cars franchise has been the weakest of the Pixar movies, both on the screen and at the box office (why keep remaking this bomb? Why don't they give us an Incredibles 2?). Dunkirk is the only summer movie I'm pumped to see, but I've learned that my enthusiasms do not match the public at large. I liked Prometheus, despite its flaws, but Alien Covenant seems to be more of an Aliens remake than a Prometheus sequel.

I finally rolled the dice with Planet of the Apes ... the franchise films (in the current run) have usually been well reviewed and well received and the last one made $208 million. That might be enough this summer.

[DU82]

The Cars franchise has been the weakest of the Pixar movies, both on the screen and at the box office (why keep remaking this bomb? Why don't they give us an Incredibles 2?).

Coming next summer (and hopefully again, "No Capes!")

[IrishDevil]

Your thought process and picks parallel mine, Oly, except I grew up with Spiderman and I don't see Apes pulling it off. Rather than go with another franchise for my last pick, I went with the summer comedy in Baywatch. Less adult than some of our other Top 5 surprises, but the Rock and Zac Effron have both been doing pretty darn well lately. Not saying the movie will be quality, mind you, but I could see it sneaking into that 5th spot.

[El_Diablo]

Your thought process and picks parallel mine, Oly, except I grew up with Spiderman and I don't see Apes pulling it off. Rather than go with another franchise for my last pick, I went with the summer comedy in Baywatch. Less adult than some of our other Top 5 surprises, but the Rock and Zac Effron have both been doing pretty darn well lately. Not saying the movie will be quality, mind you, but I could see it sneaking into that 5th spot.

That's not a bad sleeper pick, actually. And to be clear, it most definitely is an adult movie: R rating for nudity, sexual content, and (as evidenced by the trailer below) lots and lots of profanity.



I read that it has tested well and would not be surprised if it outperformed expectations if it is actually funny.

[Olympic Fan]

That's not a bad sleeper pick, actually. And to be clear, it most definitely is an adult movie: R rating for nudity, sexual content, and (as evidenced by the trailer below) lots and lots of profanity.



I read that it has tested well and would not be surprised if it outperformed expectations if it is actually funny.

Maybe ... as I said, I have no faith in my last pick. Baywatch could easily do it instead.

But I don't think so, based on by first look at a TV spot (during the NFL draft). The trailer seemed to emphasize that the movie is a tongue in cheek remake of a cheesy old TV show. One character kept pointing out how stupid the plot was. In my opinion, that kind of approach can generate some laughs, but I doubt that it creates a huge box office.

But, hey, what do I know? I'm not pugged into the tastes of the mass of summer movie-goers.

[luburch]

Ended up going with the three locks (imo): Guardians, Spider-Man, and DM3. That left two more that i'm not overly confident in.

I went with Wonder Woman as my fourth choice. I feel fairly confident it will make enough money regardless of what the reviews say.

The last one was tough. I could have gone with Pirates, Apes, or Transformers. Instead I went for Baywatch. It's a comedy. It has The Rock, who is as big as any movie star right now. I thought it would be a less popular selection than the others and a decent darkhorse selection.

[camion]

That's not a bad sleeper pick, actually. And to be clear, it most definitely is an adult movie: R rating for nudity, sexual content, and (as evidenced by the trailer below) lots and lots of profanity.



I read that it has tested well and would not be surprised if it outperformed expectations if it is actually funny.

There's also merchandising. Note the Baywatch watch on Dwayne Jonhnson's wrist in the picture.

bay-watch.jpg

Or perhaps you didn't even notice Dwayne Johnson in the picture.

[NashvilleDevil]

Don't like my picks but here they are:

Guardians
Wonder Woman
Spider-Man
Despicable Me 3
Transformers

I wanted to vote for Dunkirk but I think this will be the one Nolan movie that does not make the top 5. It is the movie I will see this summer but I think that the subject matter is not well known in the States and therefore will not be a big draw.

[JasonEvans]

So, I am seeing a screening of Guardians 2 on Monday at 7pm, which would allow me to see it prior to the close of this poll at 11:27pm on Monday. Do I need to make my picks prior to then or can I wait?

-Jason "kidding... there is pretty much nothing I could see Monday night that would dissuade me from voting for Guardians... and the buzz from screenings this past week has been excellent" Evans

[PackMan97]

So, I am seeing a screening of Guardians 2 on Monday at 7pm, which would allow me to see it prior to the close of this poll at 11:27pm on Monday. Do I need to make my picks prior to then or can I wait?

-Jason "kidding... there is pretty much nothing I could see Monday night that would dissuade me from voting for Guardians... and the buzz from screenings this past week has been excellent" Evans

In the interest of fairness, I'd be find with prior to the screening, you declare whether you will or won't pick Guardians.

[JasonEvans]

WEll, I went ahead and voted now anyway. Not that it mattered, Guardians is the mortal lock of this contest.

Actually, I think there are 4 locks... 4 films that are all going to make well over $250 million. In order, I believe they are:

Guardians - $400 mil+ in total boxoffice
Spiderman: Homecoming - $320+ mil in total boxoffice
Despicable Me 3 - $300+ mil in total boxoffice
Wonder Woman - $250+ mil in total boxoffice

Yup, those are locks. I'll be very surprised if any of them come up short. But the 5th, whew was that ever a hard choice!

I am not picking Cars. The first 2 sucked and Pixar isn't the automatic pick that it once was. 4 of the past 6 Pixar films (Good Dino, Monsters U, Brave, and Cars 2) were just mediocre-good films, not the great stuff we are used to getting from the studio. It is clear that the push to make more films is decreasing Pixar's quality. I think Cars 3 will be low-quality as well and there just isn't that much good will for the Cars franchise these days. I bet it makes about $180 million.

I am similarly not taking Transformers 5(?). That franchise is also really getting old and isn't nearly as cool as it once was. That said, I think Trans 5 will still make over $200 mil, but just barely and it will not be enough to hit the #5 spot in our contest.

I think Pirates 5 will be better than Pirates 4, but that is a franchise that really shows signs of aging. I'm surprised that the trailers are not focusing more on the return of the Will Turner character. It seems Disney thinks "Johnny Depp looking funky will sell anything" but I think that day passed about 5 years ago. Depp has chosen lots of poor scripts lately and his boxoffice cache is pretty low. I bet this film only makes about $150 mil.

So, my pick came down to Dunkirk or War of the Planet of the Apes. Dunkirk looks fabulous and I can't believe I picked against Christopher Nolan, but WWII flicks just don't tend to be huge boxoffice winners, even with a great director at the helm. The cast is good, but none of Kenneth Branagh, Tom Hardy, Cillian Murphy, or Mark Rylance are big-time stars. Star power matters when it comes to summer flicks. I think Dunkirk will make something like $170 mil, but that won't be enough.

I went with the Apes. The previous 2 films have been excellent and there is tremendous fan good will as a result. Woody Harrelson provides some star power and I think director Matt Reeves is consistently very good. The last one made $208 mil, about 15% more than the first and I could see another 10% jump here. That would put it at $230 million, which will be enough to be our #5 film.

-Jason "if I am wrong, I think it will be because either Transformers or Pirates will actually be a good film and will hit the $240 mil+ level" Evans

[IrishDevil]

-Jason "if I am wrong, I think it will be because either Transformers or Pirates will actually be a good film and will hit the $240 mil+ level" Evans

For my and luburch's sakes, here's to hoping you're wrong twice then

[mkirsh]

Here are my final five;

Guardians. Only real lock in my book. Loved the first one, and have learned not to bet against Chris Pratt in the summer.

DM3. Should be the best summer option for younger kids. Worry somewhat about diminishing interest in the third movie of the franchise, but still expect it to do well.

Wonder Woman. Despite the fact that DC without Nolan has been a hot mess, I think there will be pent up demand for a female super hero.

Transformers. I loved the toys and cartoon as a kid, but think the movies have all sucked. However people still seem to see these in droves even when reviews are awful. Think this one can get there.

Baywatch. Most summers have an adult comedy that does well, and I think the Rock, Effron, and cheesy 90s nostalgia may get there.

I left off spider man which everyone else is high on, but can't imagine why the world needs another spider man reboot with yet another spidey. Probably will be wrong there. Also left of Pirates (first movie was released in 2003, this franchise is pretty tired IMO), and Apes and Alien as having too small target audiences. Struggled with Cars, as I think it will do better than most are giving it a chance of doing, but ultimately couldn't move anything else out of my five.

As always, sure to be wrong. Good luck everyone.

[JasonEvans]

I left off spider man which everyone else is high on, but can't imagine why the world needs another spider man reboot with yet another spidey. Probably will be wrong there.

Here is the full list of all the films featuring RDJr as Iron Man that have made less than $300 million: _____________________

And here is the full list of all the films featuring Spider Man that have made less than $200 million: _____________________

Here is the average domestic boxoffice for all films featuring RDJr. as Iron Man: $421.7 million

Here is the average domestic boxoffice for all films featuring Spider Man: $315.7 million

It is worth noting that the trailers look excellent so far and the fact that Spidey was so well received in Civil War probably ensures this film makes well over $100 mil its opening weekend even if the reviews are not good... and I expect the reviews to be very good (especially because critics will compare it to the very mediocre ASM 2 of a few years ago).

-Jason "two words describe this film's chances of making the top 5 of summer: Mortal Lock!"

[CameronBornAndBred]

Here is the full list of all the films featuring RDJr as Iron Man that have made less than $300 million: _____________________

And here is the full list of all the films featuring Spider Man that have made less than $200 million: _____________________

Here is the average domestic boxoffice for all films featuring RDJr. as Iron Man: $421.7 million

Here is the average domestic boxoffice for all films featuring Spider Man: $315.7 million

It is worth noting that the trailers look excellent so far and the fact that Spidey was so well received in Civil War probably ensures this film makes well over $100 mil its opening weekend even if the reviews are not good... and I expect the reviews to be very good (especially because critics will compare it to the very mediocre ASM 2 of a few years ago).

-Jason "two words describe this film's chances of making the top 5 of summer: Mortal Lock!"

I WANTED to vote against Spidey for the reasons that Mkirsh gave, and because it seems every movie (since the original, which I liked) has been a letdown. But, for the reasons that Jason gave, it was too hard to say no.
If by some miracle it tanks, (and thus I lose), I won't be a bit bummed out.

[JasonEvans]

I WANTED to vote against Spidey for the reasons that Mkirsh gave, and because it seems every movie (since the original, which I liked) has been a letdown. But, for the reasons that Jason gave, it was too hard to say no.
If by some miracle it tanks, (and thus I lose), I won't be a bit bummed out.

I think at this point it is worth noting that an comparison of this Spidey with previous ones are probably flawed because a whole new studio/production is behind the new version. Sony gets to distribute the flick, but the Marvel (Kevin Fegie) folks are completely in control creatively. The only comparison that makes sense would be the Spidey of Civil War.

-Jason "for the record, I loved what Rami did a couple decades ago... though his magic had worn out by the time we got to Spideyman 3" Evans

[davekay1971]

I think at this point it is worth noting that an comparison of this Spidey with previous ones are probably flawed because a whole new studio/production is behind the new version. Sony gets to distribute the flick, but the Marvel (Kevin Fegie) folks are completely in control creatively. The only comparison that makes sense would be the Spidey of Civil War.

-Jason "for the record, I loved what Rami did a couple decades ago... though his magic had worn out by the time we got to Spideyman 3" Evans

Agreed with all of this; but I still feel it was a tragic waste that Raimi's Spiderman never, not even once, said, "All right you primitive screwheads, listen up. This...is my BOOMSTICK." Sure, that would have required Spidey to be holding a shotgun. But that's okay.

PS: Would it have been so unbelievable for Peter Parker to have had a weekend job at S-Mart?