Tough Week

[CameronBlue]

Someone drop some positivity for me?

You should get some satisfaction from looking back upon a year that saw Duke beat the cheats in FB, WBB (sweep) and MBB (2-1). Duke pushed its lead back out to 2 official conference championships in MBB increasing the probability that when K and Roy have both retired Duke will be the leader in ACC Championships for Men's Basketball. In FB Duke has won 3 of the last 5 and recruiting continues to improve year over year. If UNC wins the NCAAs it will sting the Blue Devil faithful but the sting will subside over a much shorter time than it will take UNC to shake its reputation as the Cheatingest athletic program in NCAA history, east or west of the Pecos. The vast majority of UNC fans will have transitioned from this life before UNC is once again a respected athletic entity in college sports.

[FadedTackyShirt]

And every single one of those teams had great upperclassmen on their rosters. I'm only saying this because people in the 2017 recruiting thread seem to think we can win a championship with a "Fab 5" type of team with 5 freshmen starters next year. It's never been done.

Duke has a huge fan base and that big tent occasionally becomes unwieldy. Experience whiplash reading posts claiming Duke can't win with multiple OADs or that Duke can only win with five or six new shiny recruits every year. Single elimination tournaments are inherently a crapshoot and K's sell by date is rapidly approaching. Heightens both the sense of urgency and the anxiety.

[English]

I don't believe I've mocked anyone for their optimism for incoming recruits, but just check out all 4 final four teams. What do you see? Juniors and seniors up and down each roster. And not just this year. Every year. Maybe once every 4 or 5 years, a UK or Duke team with a bunch of star freshmen/sophomores breaks through, but that's the exception, not the rule.

Well, I suppose you could say OADs (and even 2ADs) are also the exception and not the rule, which sounds a lot like selection bias to me. Two of the last five national championship teams have been led by elite freshmen and sophomore players. Other F4 teams in the past five years have had OAD and/or 2AD representation. In as much as there are only a handful of OADs each year, some have broken through each year (possibly this year excluded).

I don't subscribe to the idea that a team led only by top young talent, at the expense of upperclass leadership, is the ideal. However, 1) that doesn't preclude anyone from getting very excited about incoming 5-star talent, from where I sit; and 2) we don't really have a choice for this season.

Now, again, to some of the hyperbole flying around DBR in the last few days around these players & a Fab Five rotation, that's not me. I suspect some are getting worked up at the prospect of an influx of talent to wash away the perceived disappointment of this season's conclusion.

[kAzE]

Well, I suppose you could say OADs (and even 2ADs) are also the exception and not the rule, which sounds a lot like selection bias to me. Two of the last five national championship teams have been led by elite freshmen and sophomore players. Other F4 teams in the past five years have had OAD and/or 2AD representation. In as much as there are only a handful of OADs each year, some have broken through each year (possibly this year excluded).

I don't subscribe to the idea that a team led only by top young talent, at the expense of upperclass leadership, is the ideal. However, 1) that doesn't preclude anyone from getting very excited about incoming 5-star talent, from where I sit; and 2) we don't really have a choice for this season.

Now, again, to some of the hyperbole flying around DBR in the last few days around these players & a Fab Five rotation, that's not me. I suspect some are getting worked up at the prospect of an influx of talent to wash away the perceived disappointment of this season's conclusion.

I'm not against signing OADs at all. Just as long as we get some guys who will stick around to lead and teach the young guys the ropes. Unless Luke or Grayson sticks around, the cupboard is pretty bare in terms of that next year. That's why I keep hoping those guys come back.

[COYS]

Okay, so that's like 5-6 teams in the last 7 years, out of 28 teams. Maybe my "every 4-5 years" comment was off, but the vast majority of final four teams are still heavily laden with older players.

I think it's also important to remember that there are a finite number of elite freshmen who are capable of taking a team to the Final Four in any given season. I think a more interesting question would be to see what percentage of teams that feature multiple top freshmen* makes it to the Final Four. Some high school classes are weaker than others. There are only so many elite freshmen to go around. There are probably only 1-3 teams per year that really fit the description of a One-and-Done-led team. In this sense, I actually think the track record is pretty dang good for these types of teams. UK has had lots of success reaching the Final Four while staring multiple freshmen who are also top NBA prospects. Obviously, 2015 Duke counts, too. And I still think Duke 2017 would have been much better if we had been able to play our top freshmen more, because that would mean they were healthy and playing up to their ability instead of trying to shake off the rust or get up to speed after preseason injuries.

I totally agree that a team full of OAD talent benefits from veteran talent, as well. But I also think the track record of OAD-led teams has been pretty good, too. Considering how few teams with multiple OAD's compete every year, 5-6 teams over that span is a pretty good success rate.


*I am open to figuring out how to define "multiple top freshmen." I would probably argue for: multiple freshmen ranked in the top 20 of the RSCI that are expected to be lottery picks in a consensus of mock drafts.

[left_hook_lacey]

Harry is finito at Duke. Just announced.

[COYS]

Well, I suppose you could say OADs (and even 2ADs) are also the exception and not the rule, which sounds a lot like selection bias to me. Two of the last five national championship teams have been led by elite freshmen and sophomore players. Other F4 teams in the past five years have had OAD and/or 2AD representation. In as much as there are only a handful of OADs each year, some have broken through each year (possibly this year excluded).

I don't subscribe to the idea that a team led only by top young talent, at the expense of upperclass leadership, is the ideal. However, 1) that doesn't preclude anyone from getting very excited about incoming 5-star talent, from where I sit; and 2) we don't really have a choice for this season.

Now, again, to some of the hyperbole flying around DBR in the last few days around these players & a Fab Five rotation, that's not me. I suspect some are getting worked up at the prospect of an influx of talent to wash away the perceived disappointment of this season's conclusion.

You beat me to it. If you're playing the percentages, it seems that teams with multiple OAD players fare very well in the tournament while teams with multiple OAD players + a few talented veterans are ideal.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I was sort of hoping this thread might contain some optimism rather than yet another OAD discussion group.

[English]

I'm not against signing OADs at all. Just as long as we get some guys who will stick around to lead and teach the young guys the ropes. Unless Luke or Grayson sticks around, the cupboard is pretty bare in terms of that next year. That's why I keep hoping those guys come back.

I suspect you and I don't have much ground for disagreement on any of these points. I also suspect this will be the first time in memory that Duke fans will be waiting with bated breath for the deadline for NBA Draft withdrawal...i.e., I anticipate Luke & Grayson (and possibly Marques) to at least test the waters.

[Rich]

I will say that our bum coaches who everyone hates now have been working their tails off since the SC loss. They have done an amazing job recruiting both high school targets and a current Duke player over the past 8 days. Things are looking good, but nothing is finalized until it's finalized.

Recruiting a current Duke player? Is that a euphemism for convincing someone considering transferring to stay?

And as I type this, Harry Giles has announced he's gone.

[TKG]

I was sort of hoping this thread might contain some optimism rather than yet another OAD discussion group.

The competition for playing time will be fierce this summer and into the fall. Given the exodus which has occurred, thus far, I would think minutes will be up for grabs. We might be forced to play more than 7 players.

[Olympic Fan]

And every single one of those teams had great upperclassmen on their rosters. I'm only saying this because people in the 2017 recruiting thread seem to think we can win a championship with a "Fab 5" type of team with 5 freshmen starters next year. It's never been done.

I read the same threads and haven't seen that.

Yes, there are those who want a Fab Five ... but the same people want a solid core coming back -- Jackson and either Allen or Kennard at the very least.

[Wander]

I feel like you did no research in to this, and just assumed all of UK's teams are underclassmen. With the exception of 2014 (when they were an 8 seed), each of those UK final four teams had at least 3 upperclassmen in their top 7 rotation. That's not "a bunch of freshmen and sophomores."

I think you're being a little nitpicky. It's logistically nearly impossible to literally field a team of all freshmen since teams play rotations of 7+ guys. Kentucky's Final Four teams are, in fact, focused on underclassmen.

[Jeffrey]

I was sort of hoping this thread might contain some optimism rather than yet another OAD discussion group.

Coach K announced he is returning next year!

[kAzE]

I read the same threads and haven't seen that.

Yes, there are those who want a Fab Five ... but the same people want a solid core coming back -- Jackson and either Allen or Kennard at the very least.

Here's one:

The plan is Duval-Trent-Knox-Carter-Bamba.

I speculate we close this recruiting cycle with a bang.

Guards- Trevon Duval, Gary Trent Jr., and Alex O'Connell
Wings- Kevin Knox
Bigs- Wendell Carter and Mohamed Bamba

That is a preseason number 1 team in America based on freshmen alone.

I think the Knox choice is pretty simple. Come be the next Tatum/Winslow/Parker/Ingram.

I also think the Bamba choice is pretty simple. Kentucky has a ton of bigs and they aren't a "smart" school with a great network like Duke. I just can't envision him going to Michigan or Texas.

Duval gets the keys to be the starting PG on the number 1 team in America.



I think this is going to be a very exciting couple of weeks.

I'd remind this poster that UK's 2012-13 team was ranked #1 in the preseason and missed the NCAAT entirely.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Coach K announced he is returning next year!

Did he? I would totally accept that. We have gotten to the point where every year I wonder...

[Jeffrey]

Did he? I would totally accept that. We have gotten to the point where every year I wonder...

Yes, he did.

My optimistic work is complete.... now, back to kAzE.

[hudlow]

Someone drop some positivity for me?

You're still a Duke fan.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Yes, he did.

My optimistic work is complete... now, back to kAzE.

I totally accept that answer.

[kAzE]

Yes, he did.

My optimistic work is complete... now, back to kAzE.

Whoa, since when was I the pessimist of this board? I've ALWAYS been an optimist on this forum. If you think otherwise, I'd direct you to this post, which I made at halftime of the Duke/UNC game in the ACC tournament this year:

click the link

I'll just be less so if we don't have a returning upperclassmen. I still think even with Frank Jackson leading the team, we're a sweet 16 team. I'd just temper championship expectations.