NBA Non-Duke Draft Decisions (Declaring, Signing with Agents, Returning, etc)

[CDu]

Yes, I'd already mentally counted Justin Jackson as gone. Same for Isaacs. Perhaps I shouldn't do that though, so I understand including them on a list.

I would love to assume Jackson is leaving UNC. But I have been burned before. I will consider him an uncertain until/if he declares.

[Ultrarunner]

Oly, part of my post is a rant, none of which is directed at you. Yours was just the best post so far to reply too. I fully agree with you on the stupid decisions and that's what my rant will be on...

I'm in the minority for sure (and will be labeled as nuts for certain) but I'm not convinced any of Kennard, Allen, Giles, and Bolden will go. Out of the 4 I would put Giles as the most likely, but in my opinion he has no business going and NBA teams have no business drafting him. I love the kid but he has in no way shown that he can make it all the way back to the player he used to be. I think it would be much smarter for him to come back and spend another year rehabbing and developing his mental and physical abilities. If he is to be the player he used to be, he could play his way right back into a Top 3 Pick next year. I assume everyone will push him out the door like they do every other kid with even a hint of talent though.

Bolden needs a lot of development just to become a solid ACC Player. Anyone advising him to leave for the NBA does not really care about him and certainly doesn't have his best interests in mind.

Allen has lost all of his draft potential and needs to come back to earn it back. He is still not fully healthy which will only hurt him even more at the evaluations.

Kennard is the most established player of them all at this point, but he is pretty much on record as saying he expected to be an off the bench role player this past season, which means he was certainly not planning to be a 1 and done or 2 and done player and most likely came in expecting to play 3 or all 4 years. He certainly has a lot of areas where he needs to improve with defense being at the top of that list. But yet again, all the armchair QB's are screaming go go go Luke which maybe/possibly is changing his own personal viewpoint.


I'm just sick of it all. People rush these kids (like Bolden which is absurd, and Kennard) out of school and a very large percentage of the guys that give up their college careers and legacies, end up as journeyman NBA players at best and out of the league all together in a lot of cases. All in the name of the almighty dollar which most of them end up blowing anyway. There is more to life than money. Way more. Far more. I will honestly be glad when the bubble bursts and it all comes crashing down. The Major League Baseball rule should be implemented for Basketball. Go into the draft and/or D League right out of High School or go to College for 3 years. That would be much better than the mess we have now, but there is just too much greed involved for the powers that be to institute that model.

Rant over...

Everyone back to pushing non-ready players out the door...

Drat! Epic rant that deserves major sporks and I get the spread-it-around pop-up.

Much to agree with. All of them should test the waters and get feedback from the NBA folks on what their weaknesses are at the next level. That said, Bolden should come back, as should Luke, each for development. Grayson I'm ambivalent on. I can make the case either way but can't explain why he should want to put up with the nastiness another season. Harry? Again, I'm ambivalent. I think his body needs more time to heal and strengthen, his game needs to mature. But, if someone tosses a couple of million dollars his way, it's insurance for life if the knees don't hold.


Based on Oly's #6 post, 70+ college players declared early and stayed in the draft last year. That's double the number of draft positions available. Most of these young men are not comparable to Jayson. They would do well to stay in school, hone their skills, and get an education.

[RPS]

I'm just sick of it all. People rush these kids (like Bolden which is absurd, and Kennard) out of school and a very large percentage of the guys that give up their college careers and legacies, end up as journeyman NBA players at best and out of the league all together in a lot of cases. All in the name of the almighty dollar which most of them end up blowing anyway. There is more to life than money. Way more. Far more. I will honestly be glad when the bubble bursts and it all comes crashing down. The Major League Baseball rule should be implemented for Basketball. Go into the draft and/or D League right out of High School or go to College for 3 years. That would be much better than the mess we have now, but there is just too much greed involved for the powers that be to institute that model.

The key problem (it seems to me) is the need for players to get off their rookie contracts to get "real" money (if they can earn it). Every year a player stays in school is thus a peak earning year lost (given the typical career length). Plus, it makes it harder to get the big money since older players don't as readily get the "potential pass." If I were in charge, I'd propose starting the "clock" for contract purposes after one year out of high school and run it whether the player stays in college or not. That way, a player who stays four years in college can negotiate for big money and forfeits "only" rookie contract money by staying in school. Pursuant to that paradigm, the incentive to go would be dramatically lower. A player who stayed in this set-up is still giving up money but a lot less and the NBA should get better prepared players since more will likely stay.

[gam7]

Bacon and Isaacs are pretty important too.

Yes, I'd already mentally counted Justin Jackson as gone. Same for Isaacs.

Ok, I'll be that guy - it is Isaac. As a person with a last name that an inordinate number of people add an "s" to when saying or spelling it, this one hits a bit close to home. I know how you feel, Jonathan!

And while I'm on a roll, I've noticed that almost every front page article over the last week that mentions Bolden (both Al Featherston and jk) has been spelling his first name "Marquise". I've seen it about four different times. Marques, guys.

[ncexnyc]

Drat! Epic rant that deserves major sporks and I get the spread-it-around pop-up.

Much to agree with. All of them should test the waters and get feedback from the NBA folks on what their weaknesses are at the next level. That said, Bolden should come back, as should Luke, each for development. Grayson I'm ambivalent on. I can make the case either way but can't explain why he should want to put up with the nastiness another season. Harry? Again, I'm ambivalent. I think his body needs more time to heal and strengthen, his game needs to mature. But, if someone tosses a couple of million dollars his way, it's insurance for life if the knees don't hold.


Based on Oly's #6 post, 70+ college players declared early and stayed in the draft last year. That's double the number of draft positions available. Most of these young men are not comparable to Jayson. They would do well to stay in school, hone their skills, and get an education.

When you say, "get an education," you wouldn't be suggesting these kids stick around and get a degree like they give away at UNC would you?

[Olympic Fan]

Everyone back to pushing non-ready players out the door...

Good rant, but this is the part I don't understand.

WE are not "pushing" anybody out the door, merely observing a process that is the way of the world. Or trying to observe it objectively.

A large percentage of today's big-time college basketball players are merely using college basketball as a stepping stone to the pros -- not even the NBA ... some would rather get paid to play in Europe or the NBADL than linger in college.

Last year, the NBA drafted 60 players in two rounds -- and 92 underclassmen gave up their college eligibility to make themselves eligible for the draft. With seniors and foreign pros filling several draft slots, that means that more than half essentially made stupid decisions. That doesn't count he 70 or so other underclassmen who declared for the draft, but withdrew by the deadline.

I think every kid should declare for the draft every year. If he's not invited to the NBA developmental camp, then he should return to college. If he is invite to the camp, then go, participate, get as much feedback as possible, then make an informed decision whether to stay in the draft or return top college.

Personally, I'm sorry so many kids are in such a hurry to get to the NBA. I love college basketball and can't stand the NBA game.

If I could convince Tatum, Kennard, Giles and Allen to stay at Duke, I'd be a happy man.

But ranting about the system now in place doesn't do anybody any good. It's not like our opinions have any influence on whether these guys stay or go.

I'm sorry that our speculation bothers you ... all I can say is don't click on thread. It's going to happen whether we talk about t or not.

[Ultrarunner]

When you say, "get an education," you wouldn't be suggesting these kids stick around and get a degree like they give away at UNC would you?

You know, tried dancing around that for the broader point, but the fact that a university thought it acceptable to cheat its students angers me more than I can tell you.

[Newton_14]

Good rant, but this is the part I don't understand.

WE are not "pushing" anybody out the door, merely observing a process that is the way of the world. Or trying to observe it objectively.

A large percentage of today's big-time college basketball players are merely using college basketball as a stepping stone to the pros -- not even the NBA ... some would rather get paid to play in Europe or the NBADL than linger in college.

Last year, the NBA drafted 60 players in two rounds -- and 92 underclassmen gave up their college eligibility to make themselves eligible for the draft. With seniors and foreign pros filling several draft slots, that means that more than half essentially made stupid decisions. That doesn't count he 70 or so other underclassmen who declared for the draft, but withdrew by the deadline.

I think every kid should declare for the draft every year. If he's not invited to the NBA developmental camp, then he should return to college. If he is invite to the camp, then go, participate, get as much feedback as possible, then make an informed decision whether to stay in the draft or return top college.

Personally, I'm sorry so many kids are in such a hurry to get to the NBA. I love college basketball and can't stand the NBA game.

If I could convince Tatum, Kennard, Giles and Allen to stay at Duke, I'd be a happy man.

But ranting about the system now in place doesn't do anybody any good. It's not like our opinions have any influence on whether these guys stay or go.

I'm sorry that our speculation bothers you ... all I can say is don't click on thread. It's going to happen whether we talk about t or not.

Oly, my bad, I didn't mean to imply you or others in this thread who merely speculate, are the folks pushing kids out the door. Sorry that it came across that way and I should have clarified. I think talking heads, talking heads on ESPN, the folks that run the mock drafts, and the hangers-on's/"advisors" are the ones pushing the kids out the door. And to a lesser degree social media.

Despite my disdain for the current mess, I will still read and participate in this thread because I do want to know who declares an who doesn't for Duke and all other ACC teams. Like you I love college hoops and the ACC an want to stay in the know on upcoming rosters even though I hate the incredible amount of turnover from early departures and transfers.

The speculating doesn't bother me... it's the system itself and the folks that post 'Player X should absolutely go" and their reasoning is always the same; money. I think Tim Duncan, Grant Hill, Shane Battier, and a host of others have plenty money in the bank..

But again, my apologies. I wasn't clear enough in my original post.

[mr. synellinden]

Every year a player stays in school is thus a peak earning year lost (given the typical career length).

This is the part I always have a big issue with. It's not necessarily true. In fact, I would argue it's not true for many top players. Going to the NBA at 19 or 20 is hard. You play 82 games and travel a lot. If you only have so much mileage you can put on your body, why not stay in college and let your body develop more physically so you are ready for the grind and can have a longer career. If you can play from age 22-37, isn't that better than playing from 20-33? Every year you stay might "earn" you one or two on the back end of your career. Tim Duncan and Grant Hill played for 20 years. They stayed four years. Vince Carter is still playing. He stayed three years. Kobe and Garnett are out of the league already. Let's see how long LeBron and Durant last compared to a guy like Curry. I think elite players can make more money by staying and being more ready for the grind of the NBA, lessening their chance for injury and making more money on the back end. Jabari has had two major injuries already. Kyrie has had some as well. How long are they going to last in the NBA. Yeah, Kyrie is making max money but maybe he would have made more if he could have had a longer career. What if Jabari never gets back to full strength mentally or physically. There are risks to starting your NBA career at 19 or 20 instead of 22 or 23.

[MChambers]

The key problem (it seems to me) is the need for players to get off their rookie contracts to get "real" money (if they can earn it). Every year a player stays in school is thus a peak earning year lost (given the typical career length). Plus, it makes it harder to get the big money since older players don't as readily get the "potential pass." If I were in charge, I'd propose starting the "clock" for contract purposes after one year out of high school and run it whether the player stays in college or not. That way, a player who stays four years in college can negotiate for big money and forfeits "only" rookie contract money by staying in school. Pursuant to that paradigm, the incentive to go would be dramatically lower. A player who stayed in this set-up is still giving up money but a lot less and the NBA should get better prepared players since more will likely stay.

I've been saying the same thing for years. Kids who stay in college ought to get a shorter rookie salary cap. It would improve both the college and the pro game.

Unfortunately, you and I are not in the majority on this.

[Troublemaker]

I've been saying the same thing for years. Kids who stay in college ought to get a shorter rookie salary cap. It would improve both the college and the pro game.

Unfortunately, you and I are not in the majority on this.

I think you are in the majority, just not the significant one. You have to be part of a majority of NBA owners to enact change. Unfortunately, NBA owners probably don't mind the rookie contract length being the same for both a 19-yr-old and a 22-yr-old.

Unfortunate. I agree it's a very good idea.

[Spanarkel]

Drat! Epic rant that deserves major sporks and I get the spread-it-around pop-up.

Much to agree with. All of them should test the waters and get feedback from the NBA folks on what their weaknesses are at the next level. That said, Bolden should come back, as should Luke, each for development. Grayson I'm ambivalent on. I can make the case either way but can't explain why he should want to put up with the nastiness another season. Harry? Again, I'm ambivalent. I think his body needs more time to heal and strengthen, his game needs to mature. But, if someone tosses a couple of million dollars his way, it's insurance for life if the knees don't hold.


Based on Oly's #6 post, 70+ college players declared early and stayed in the draft last year. That's double the number of draft positions available. Most of these young men are not comparable to Jayson. They would do well to stay in school, hone their skills, and get an education.

Not that I've done it, but in today's world it would seem to be pretty easy to spend several million dollars in a few years. 70% of lottery winners(with windfalls in the tens of millions)end up broke in a few years. I am not sure that a few million dollars would give HG, or anyone else, "insurance for life."

[MChambers]

I think you are in the majority, just not the significant one. You have to be part of a majority of NBA owners to enact change. Unfortunately, NBA owners probably don't mind the rookie contract length being the same for both a 19-yr-old and a 22-yr-old.

Unfortunate. I agree it's a very good idea.

The owners also have to get the union to agree, so that may be part of the issue.

Wouldn't the owners would prefer a more polished NBA game, with better prepared players? I think it would increase interest in the league.

The true stars would still go pro early and live with the rookie cap, so the owners would still get the salary savings from that. It's the good but not great players who would stay 3 or 4 years, and I don't think they would get huge contacts when they entered the league. (Putting aside those insane contracts that were signed last off-season.)

[MCFinARL]

This is the part I always have a big issue with. It's not necessarily true. In fact, I would argue it's not true for many top players. Going to the NBA at 19 or 20 is hard. You play 82 games and travel a lot. If you only have so much mileage you can put on your body, why not stay in college and let your body develop more physically so you are ready for the grind and can have a longer career. If you can play from age 22-37, isn't that better than playing from 20-33? Every year you stay might "earn" you one or two on the back end of your career. Tim Duncan and Grant Hill played for 20 years. They stayed four years. Vince Carter is still playing. He stayed three years. Kobe and Garnett are out of the league already. Let's see how long LeBron and Durant last compared to a guy like Curry. I think elite players can make more money by staying and being more ready for the grind of the NBA, lessening their chance for injury and making more money on the back end. Jabari has had two major injuries already. Kyrie has had some as well. How long are they going to last in the NBA. Yeah, Kyrie is making max money but maybe he would have made more if he could have had a longer career. What if Jabari never gets back to full strength mentally or physically. There are risks to starting your NBA career at 19 or 20 instead of 22 or 23.

This is an interesting point, and I agree that some players may not be physically (or mentally, for that matter) ready to take the beating of an NBA season at 19 or 20. I also agree that, as college fans, we would be much better off with a system that provided more incentives for players to stay in college. But I wonder if your analysis of how early entry affects career length is a bit oversimplified, or at least supported only by anecdotal evidence. Ability to stay in the league for 15 to 20 years depends on a lot of factors, and very few players manage to do it, regardless of when they began their pro careers.

Similarly, are we sure that injuries to players like Kyrie (who, as we know, had already sustained a major injury in college) and Jabari would not have occurred if they had entered the NBA a couple of years later than they did? Granted their bodies would be more mature, that's not necessarily a defense against injury, which can be affected by things like individual constitution, style of play, and straight up bad luck.

I agree with Newton_14 that there is too much pressure on these kids to leave school, which is in line with the increasing emphasis in our society over the past 30 years or so on wealth as the only measure of personal worth and success (sorry for brief descent into possible PPB territory). But I also think there is no right answer that fits every kid. Most of these kids aren't going to be in the NBA for a long time, and many of them don't see a lot of options beyond basketball for ensuring their financial security. Some of them, clearly, are in college in the first place only because they are not allowed to go directly to the NBA and playing in college seems like an easier and more attractive option than trying to find a spot in the D-League or on a team abroad.

And there is risk either way. Grayson Allen and Harry Giles present two good examples. By coming back, Grayson clearly hurt his draft stock badly. He may well not regret that decision, because he is a good student and he has said that getting a college degree has always been an important part of his plan. But for another kid, less able in the classroom or less academically motivated, what has happened to Grayson this year might have been a disaster.

Harry, on the other hand, faces a tough decision. In one sense, he clearly would be better off to come back to college for another year, to make more progress in getting all the way back--or as far as he can--from his injuries, to build another year's worth of physical strength and maturity, and also, frankly, just to get more playing experience. But there is a high risk involved in staying, too--right now, he can be drafted on his potential; after next season, he could go much higher or, if he sustains another injury, not at all. If he doesn't see another clear life plan for himself outside of basketball, I could hardly blame him if he decided to take what money he can get now and hope it works out.

[bluedev_92]

This is the part I always have a big issue with. It's not necessarily true. In fact, I would argue it's not true for many top players. Going to the NBA at 19 or 20 is hard. You play 82 games and travel a lot. If you only have so much mileage you can put on your body, why not stay in college and let your body develop more physically so you are ready for the grind and can have a longer career. If you can play from age 22-37, isn't that better than playing from 20-33? Every year you stay might "earn" you one or two on the back end of your career. Tim Duncan and Grant Hill played for 20 years. They stayed four years. Vince Carter is still playing. He stayed three years. Kobe and Garnett are out of the league already. Let's see how long LeBron and Durant last compared to a guy like Curry. I think elite players can make more money by staying and being more ready for the grind of the NBA, lessening their chance for injury and making more money on the back end. Jabari has had two major injuries already. Kyrie has had some as well. How long are they going to last in the NBA. Yeah, Kyrie is making max money but maybe he would have made more if he could have had a longer career. What if Jabari never gets back to full strength mentally or physically. There are risks to starting your NBA career at 19 or 20 instead of 22 or 23.

Great points. To add to this, isn't it possible that the additional time in college helps you to perform better those first few years, resulting in a larger contract once the rookie contract is over (even if rookie contract length stays as is). As opposed to coming out early, not being particularly ready, not performing well & getting a smaller contract or no contract at all after the rookie contract.

[MCFinARL]

Not that I've done it, but in today's world it would seem to be pretty easy to spend several million dollars in a few years. 70% of lottery winners(with windfalls in the tens of millions)end up broke in a few years. I am not sure that a few million dollars would give HG, or anyone else, "insurance for life."

Well, sure, but it depends on what you do with it, and what your options are. It is pretty easy to spend several million dollars in a few years, and I am sure the lifestyle of many professional athletes encourages that. But if your option is risking a career ending knee injury before you get a contract, a few million dollars, wisely handled, could be a very nice nest egg even if it isn't likely provide a long life on easy street.

FWIW, too, I think lottery winners may be kind of different. There is, perhaps, more incentive to blow money that comes your way as a total windfall rather than as a reward for (or an advance on) your own talents and efforts. And maybe even more than professional athletes (although I could be wrong here), lottery winners are besieged by people wanting to share the largesse--long lost "relatives," people with sob stories, con artists.

[CDu]

This is the part I always have a big issue with. It's not necessarily true. In fact, I would argue it's not true for many top players. Going to the NBA at 19 or 20 is hard. You play 82 games and travel a lot. If you only have so much mileage you can put on your body, why not stay in college and let your body develop more physically so you are ready for the grind and can have a longer career. If you can play from age 22-37, isn't that better than playing from 20-33? Every year you stay might "earn" you one or two on the back end of your career. Tim Duncan and Grant Hill played for 20 years. They stayed four years. Vince Carter is still playing. He stayed three years. Kobe and Garnett are out of the league already. Let's see how long LeBron and Durant last compared to a guy like Curry. I think elite players can make more money by staying and being more ready for the grind of the NBA, lessening their chance for injury and making more money on the back end. Jabari has had two major injuries already. Kyrie has had some as well. How long are they going to last in the NBA. Yeah, Kyrie is making max money but maybe he would have made more if he could have had a longer career. What if Jabari never gets back to full strength mentally or physically. There are risks to starting your NBA career at 19 or 20 instead of 22 or 23.

I don't think you chose the best examples for your argument. Garnett played more years (21) than any of those guys. Bryant (20) was next, and could certainly still be playing if he was willing to be a role player like Hill and Carter were for the last several years of their careers. Duncan played 19 seasons and was a role player in his last two seasons. Carter is in his 19th season and has been a role player for the last 8 years. Hill played 18 seasons over 19 years but was a role player for the last 6-7 years.

[Troublemaker]

The owners also have to get the union to agree, so that may be part of the issue.

Wouldn't the owners would prefer a more polished NBA game, with better prepared players? I think it would increase interest in the league.

The true stars would still go pro early and live with the rookie cap, so the owners would still get the salary savings from that. It's the good but not great players who would stay 3 or 4 years, and I don't think they would get huge contacts when they entered the league. (Putting aside those insane contracts that were signed last off-season.)

That's hypothetical, though. Without certainty, the owners probably just want to default to slapping the rookie scale on anyone who enters the league.

Perhaps I am being too cynical, though.

[sagegrouse]

I don't think you chose the best examples for your argument. Garnett played more years (21) than any of those guys. Bryant (20) was next, and could certainly still be playing if he was willing to be a role player like Hill and Carter were for the last several years of their careers. Duncan played 19 seasons and was a role player in his last two seasons. Carter is in his 19th season and has been a role player for the last 8 years. Hill played 18 seasons over 19 years but was a role player for the last 6-7 years.

Just musing, CDu, not arguing. Role player? Depends on the definition, which I seem to think means "coming off the bench" or playing few minutes. No question that Grant Hill was not the NBA All-Star he was before the injuries after his sixth season, but he was a starter every single year except his final one. Until his final season, he averaged basically 30 minutes per game, although his scoring was about one-half what it was early in his career.

[CDu]

Just musing, CDu, not arguing. Role player? Depends on the definition, which I seem to think means "coming off the bench" or playing few minutes. No question that Grant Hill was not the NBA All-Star he was before the injuries after his sixth season, but he was a starter every single year except his final one. Until his final season, he averaged basically 30 minutes per game, although his scoring was about one-half what it was early in his career.

Yes, it appears we have different definitions for role player. Role player - to me - is someone who isn't one of the go-to offensive players. A role player can be a starter or a reserve. Similarly, one can be a reserve and not a role player (think Grayson Allen as a reserve late this year - primary offensive player who happened to come off the bench). Joakim Noah is a role player, and has been for most of his career except for a brief run as "point-center" for the Bulls.

Hill was a starter for nearly his entire career. And up into his 30s, he was not a role player. But he ceased to be a primary offensive player in his mid-30s. Hence, he became a role player despite being a starter. He devoted himself to being a defensive-minded, off-ball player as he got older. Similar story for Carter, minus the horrific ankle injuries. Duncan also became a role player in his last couple of years.