Originally Posted by
scottdude8
I consider speculating optimistically about next season as the second step in getting over the hangover of the end of the season (the first, of course, is blaming every possible circumstance besides us not playing well, i.e. the refs, essentially playing on the road, etc.). So I'm totally on board for doing that, here instead of in my own thread since you essentially beat me to the punch, lol.
I view our potential losses in three categories:
-Definite, or almost so: Amile, Matt, Jayson (99.9%)
-More than likely, but reasonable possibility of return: Harry, Grayson
-More than likely to return, but probably more like 50/50: Luke, Marques
-I think we can agree anyone else leaving, at this moment, would be a shock
As you mentioned, we gain Carter, Trent, and McConnell for sure, with the possibility of some other recruits, but I won't speculate on any of that.
Considering all that, lets think about three cases:
1) We get extremely lucky and everyone who has a reasonable chance of returning does. Such a roster could look like
-Starters: Frank, Luke, Grayson, Harry, Wendell Carter
-Key Bench: Gary Trent, Marques, Chase, Vrank
-Reserves: McConnell, DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This is a top 5 team, not even considering the possibility of new recruits. It would have a legitimate 4 or 5 man big rotation, and a potential top 10 NBA pick coming off the bench in a four man guard rotation
2) We lose the most likely players to go in Harry and Grayson
-Starters: Frank, Luke, Trent, Marques, Carter
-Key Bench: Chase, Vrank, McConnell
-Reserves: DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This is still a national championship contender, but significantly shorter rotation. This team would probably need a boost from a late recruit to be a major contender
3) Worst case scenario, where we lose everyone we could reasonably lose
-Starters: Frank, Trent, ?, ?, Carter
-Everybody else: Chase, Vrank, McConnell, DeLaurier, White
Conclusion: This would be painful, since we'd essentially be losing any sort of continuity from the last two seasons into this one. We'd need a few late recruits and would be a Kentucky like team of mostly freshman.
My overall takeaway: if the right guys come back, next season could be what we were hoping this season could be, i.e. a once-in-a-lifetime talented team. With reasonable attrition, we're still a legit national title contender. With crazy attrition, I would rail against the one-and-done system harder than I ever have before.
Let the countdown clock begin!