Nelson's free throw shooting

[jimsumner]

"carrawell and jones were better, but not surprisingly so, ditto c-doo."

Yes, cause nobody was surprised when Carrawell went from third-team All-ACC as a junior to ACC POY and first-team All-American as a senior. Natural progression.

[Devilsfan]

to paraphrase "Yogi". I sometimes believe that Duke kids think too much instead of just playing. Although Jason, Burgess, and Nelson might be able to get cards in the "Masons' Union".

[jimsumner]

Jason's inability to make free throws at a higher level was and is perplexing but he is nowhere near the brick-mason's-hall-of-fame.

Or have we all forgotten Billy King.

[mapei]

I remember Jason as being way streaky as a shooter, on and off the FT line. And he did, unfortunately, come up short against IU and one or two other pretty high-profile games. He was the most exciting Duke player I can remember when he was on his game, though.

Others, like Shane IIRC, shot their best FTs when it mattered most. Laettner too. The only ones I remember being absolute money were Trajan and JJ.

As for DeMarcus, I hope he can improve FTs, because it's been a liability for us. Personally, I think he has earned his captainship, but I don't necessarily think he will be our *best* player. I think he (and the team as a whole) may function best when we don't need him to be.

[Clipsfan]

Yes and no. Hard work often pays off, and nelson is certainly a very hard worker and I am sure he worked hard on this in the off-season. Moreover, he has had injury problems with his hand so I'm not sure if what we have seen is indicative of the norm for him.



While most people here are disagreeing with you on this, I think they are missing the point which is that Demarcus probably played a little too much last year. He had to play inside and out, and carried a lot of the load on offense and defense.

If we are going to run and be up temp this year, we need his minutes to come down to about 29-30mpg so he is fresh throughout and especially at the end of games.

I think you are right that if he is playing 32-33mpg that means that our other wing players arent performing like they should on at least one side of the ball and Coach is being forced to put Demarcus out there more than he would like.

I guess that I don't think that 32 minutes (he played 31.9 last year) really is a sign that he is out there too much. Maybe my perception is warped by the minutes guys like JJ pulled out there, but 32 seems like he's getting some decent rest.

[Clipsfan]

"Yes, having our captain and best defender/leading scorer from last year playing minutes would definitely be a bad thing. Is that really what you think?"

apparently i have been unclear. i don't think he should be playing as many minutes as he did last year. silkyj gets it, although i probably think he should have fewer minutes than silkyj does.

he was leading scorer on a team that could not shoot and best(?) defender on a team that couldn't stop anybody once ACC play started. i am not sure how much that is worth.

frankly, i have not, even given latitude for his unfortunate many injuries, been impressed. if we can't put better talent on the floor, i will be distressed.

I understand what you are saying, and as I just said in a response to Silkyj, I don't necessarily think that 32 minutes is too many considering how me makes the various units work. We need someone who can rebound as we go small, for instance. I think that the only reasons he would play a lot less would be if he plays poorly (which I definitely am not rooting for) or if K starts platooning the players, which could work very well with this year's team. Even so, he and Singler are probably the guys who enable the small ball due to speed and ability to play larger than they are on defense (I'm going off what people have said about Singler here).

[DukeVu]

Grossbus is right on. At the end of the season, Duke was the worst defensive and perhaps offensive team that I can remember in many years. Coach K has got to make some changes or the players have got to be monumentally improved. Only Paulus was a decent shooter in the season ending debacle and NOONE showed a propensity to defend. People are talking about Henderson going PRO, well I did not see any indication that he is close to going pro. Missed free throws killed Duke. I do not see how anyone, yes anyone on this team can claim an uncontested starting position.
There is much potential there but potential does not win championships. I for one hope the coaching staff has done their homework in preparing this team.

[SilkyJ]

I guess that I don't think that 32 minutes (he played 31.9 last year) really is a sign that he is out there too much. Maybe my perception is warped by the minutes guys like JJ pulled out there, but 32 seems like he's getting some decent rest.

It can be a lot of minutes when you have to be a big part of the offense and have to chase the best perimeter player around all the time on defense. JJ also wore down at the end of every season until his senior year.

[OldPhiKap]

JJ also wore down at the end of every season until his senior year.

There aught to be a lesson there, methinks.

In any event, I don't think Nelson will care whether he is playing 28 mpg or 32 mpg if Duke is winning consistently. Also, I think all of the players would prefer to play all-out for as long as they can and then sub out, as opposed to have to pace themselves on the court.

My bet is that, with this team, Nelson can expend more productive energy in a game than he did last year -- even if it is over fewer minutes. And as a captain, I am sure he will lead by example. The biggest growth I am hoping for in Nelson is not his court skills, but his leadership skills.

[grossbus]

"Yes, cause nobody was surprised when Carrawell went from third-team All-ACC as a junior to ACC POY and first-team All-American as a senior. Natural progression."

the fact that he was underrecognized by some doesn't mean that you could not see it coming. i certainly did.

[throatybeard]

There aught to be a lesson there, methinks.

Ah, I love me some ergative verbs.

[jimsumner]

Grossbus, if you want to argue that a player who went from 9.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 45.4 fg%, and 57.7 ft% to 17.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 48.6fg%, and 77.8 ft% over the course of one season, did so without showing surprising improvement, fine.

The next time you have that prescient feeling come over you, give me a call and we'll talk Wall Street.

BTW, note the dramatic improvement in foul shooting the next time somebody tells you that a senior can't improve from the line. In case you're wondering, CC shot 57.4% from the line as a freshman, 64.1% as a sophomore.

[OldPhiKap]

"Yes, cause nobody was surprised when Carrawell went from third-team All-ACC as a junior to ACC POY and first-team All-American as a senior. Natural progression."

the fact that he was underrecognized by some doesn't mean that you could not see it coming. i certainly did.

Interesting, because you said this previously about Nelson:


"he is a senior. what you have seen is what you will get. don't expect any changes in his game."


I guess some seniors just underachieve (?!?)

[grossbus]

carawell's game didn't change. all the skillz were already there and developed. as "the man" in his senior year, he got more opportunity to exhibit them.

[grossbus]

"The next time you have that prescient feeling come over you, give me a call and we'll talk Wall Street."

wasn't prescient, it was observation. the guy could play. it wasn't until he was a senior that he could be the focus of the offense. prior to that he naturallly deferred to upperclassmen.

in the case of nelson, certain learned things about his game are unlikely to change. his shot mechanics, for instance. i realize his freshman hand injury led to an odd release, but his natural release that you see now results in a very flat shot. he uses the same release on his foul shot. he does not elevate on his shot (compare photos of JJ taking a jumper and markie taking a jumper, JJ is 18 inches off the floor, markie is up on his toes) which contibutes to the flat arc. as the game progresses, the likelihood of his shot from the field or the line being short increases. his misses at the line last year late in games were entirely predicatble. i called almost everyone (my nephew was witness). these mechanics will not change.

what also will not change is his method of driving to the basket where he stops with both feet on the floor and attempts to elevate straight up for the shot. this probably worked really well in HS, but in college it results in a lot of logo imprints on his forehead. compare that to a hendu or marty who elevate to the hoop as part of the progress to the hoop. he has done this for three years. i think it will continue.

with some exceptions (brian davis is my favorite example), players GAMES don't change much from jr to sr years. they may get more opportunity to display their games (as is what happened with chris) or they may get healthier (as happened with meek).

time will tell. i am willing to observe actual play and be delighted.

[jimsumner]

Brian Davis improved all four years at Duke. But how did his GAME change?

[Johnboy]

IIRC, Billy McCaffrey left his feet slightly when he shot FTs. He basically shot a mini-jumper.

In his freshman year, Billy McCaffrey shot a little jumper from the FT line and shot nearly 80% (.793).

http://www.sportsstats.com/bball/ind...player1278.txt

ETA: I didn't mean to pile on there.

[yancem]

wasn't prescient, it was observation. the guy could play. it wasn't until he was a senior that he could be the focus of the offense. prior to that he naturallly deferred to upperclassmen.
.

Actually, he was deferring as much to underclassman as upperclassman. Brand and Avery were sophomores, Maggette a freshman and Langdon a senior (the four players averaged more points a game):
http://goduke.statsgeek.com/basketba...season=1998-99

Regardless of year though, Carrawell isn't a very good comparison to Nelson. Carrawell saw mass defection from 4 first round draft picks after his junior year. He obviously wasn't going to be a star in '99 with the talent surrounding him. In '00 he was able to show what he was capable of. On the other hand, who was Nelson deferring to last year? Don't get me wrong, I think that Nelson is capable of making strong improvements (you don't become the all time scoring champion of California if you don't have some game) but unlike Carrawell, he was given a chance to shine as a junior. I'm also not saying he didn't have a fine year but he was far from dominant.

Also, with regard to Nelson's minutes effecting team success, I think some of the supporters for him playing lots of minutes may be missing a key point. We already know basically what he is capable of. While many may argue how much he will improve, I doubt anyone thinks that he will regress. If we can agree to this point than the only reason (other than injury) for him to be on the bench would because someone else (Henderson, Scheyer,Smith, Pocius, King) has really stepped it up. This would be a good thing, no?

I also agree with an earlier post that if Nelson is the leading scorer, that probably is not a good sign. That is unless he takes a large step forward to the 18-20 point a game range. One of the problems I think Duke had last year was not knowing where to go when we needed a bucket. If Nelson is the leading scorer again this year with an average of about 14 ppg, we'll be in the same boat.

[dukemomLA]

The ability to hit FT's is NOT a coaching problem. IMHO, this is up to the players themselves. Get out there and shoot at least 100 throws a day -- some of them with eyes shut.

If one can't hit at least 20 in a row, start over. FTs should be a GIVEN -- that's why they're call FREE. Duh...any elite athlete should be able to hit at least 75% or they're not doing their job.

I was appalled and dismayed at our FTs last season. Again, anything under...let's say 70% for the team is not acceptable. Step it up, Dukies. Do your basketball homework. I'm rooting for a 80% this year, so guys...don't let me down. Your FTs could mean success of failure in game after game. If you want to win, do it!

[grossbus]

"Brian Davis improved all four years at Duke. But how did his GAME change?"

he had no (as in zero) outside shot as a freshman (and by outside i mean anything outside of 6 feet). as a senior, he was a reliable and willing three point shooter.