Nelson's free throw shooting

[OldPhiKap]

"Brian Davis improved all four years at Duke. But how did his GAME change?"

he had no (as in zero) outside shot as a freshman (and by outside i mean anything outside of 6 feet). as a senior, he was a reliable and willing three point shooter.

I guess what confuses me about your posts is why you think Davis or Carrawell had the ability to raise the level of their games from junior to senior year, but Nelson does not. I would foresee the same type of growth in Nelson, particularly in his maturity and leadership roles. That is more important to my mind than any measure of pure production, because we have a more balanced offensive tool box this year.

[grossbus]

"I guess what confuses me about your posts is why you think Davis or Carrawell had the ability to raise the level of their games from junior to senior year, but Nelson does not. I would foresee the same type of growth in Nelson, particularly in his maturity and leadership roles. That is more important to my mind than any measure of pure production, because we have a more balanced offensive tool box this year."

well, you have confused what i have said. davis elevated his game by developing skills that were absent or nominal. carrawell did NOT raise the level of his game, he just got the opportunities to display his game that he did not get in prior years because of other talent on the floor. his game was pretty much complete after his shoulder(s?) got repaired.

i think nelson's game is as complete as it is going to be, which is incomplete. the areas where he needs to grow/change have not in three years, so why would they now?

we might as well wait until we get into ACC play and then resume the discussion. nothing is likely to be revealed until this.

[grossbus]

"I think that Nelson is capable of making strong improvements (you don't become the all time scoring champion of California if you don't have some game)"

i have been asking for two years if someone actually saw him play in cali because "all time scoring champion" does not equate to what i have seen. i suspect, and only suspect as i have no data whatsoever, that he got lots of points in transition and overpowered equal sized or smaller players with the near-the-hoop move i described earlier that gets him into trouble against bigger players now.

i can tell you this, he is not a shooter.

[OldPhiKap]

"i think nelson's game is as complete as it is going to be, which is incomplete. the areas where he needs to grow/change have not in three years, so why would they now?

I think we just disagree on that point, and as you say it will play itself out.

To my mind, Nelson had injuries to deal with early in his career and has not had the benefit of three full years of full health. He also had to shoulder the load last year and as a junior had some difficulty making that adjustment. It is hard to go from a support role to being the leader and a prime scoring option.

I think there is a lot of room for growth with Nelson, and I have faith that K knows how to shape and reach that potential. There will be more scorers on the floor this year, with better balance, so that should make it easier for everyone. Add in the fact that he's trying to lead folks with an extra year of experience, and that he has an extra year of experience, and I don't see how anyone can write off even the possibility of growth of his game.

Assuming he stays healthy, I'd be willing to wager that he is a Second- or Third-team All-ACC player by the end of the year (if not better). That would certainly show improvement over last year, when he was an honorable mention.


"i can tell you this, he is not a shooter."

Didn't he have the same three-point % as Scheyer? Maybe I'm wrong about that. I guess I'm not sure what you're comparing here. For my money, if he has a good enough shot to make the defender body up and play him honestly, that allows him to drive and makes room for someone on the post. We can live with that.



As far as Davis and Carrawell, my bad if I misunderstood your point. I confuse myself on a daily basis. I'm not sure I agree with your distinction, but that's a topic for another thread I guess.

Peace out, OPK

[jimsumner]

"as a senior, he [Brian Davis] was a reliable and willing three point shooter."

As a senior Brian Davis attempted 39 three-point shots. He made 8. That's 20.5%.

Chris Carrawell was 0-2 on 3s as a freshman. As a senior he was 29-77.

As a freshman Chris Carrawell had 34 assists and 29 turnovers. As a senior, he had 110 assists and 69 turnovers.

As a freshman Chris Carrawell made 57.6% of his free throws. As a senior, he made 77.6%.

Over the course of his career at Duke Carrawell significantly improved his 3-pt fg%, his a/to ratio, and his ft%. It it quacks like a duck. . .

[grossbus]

"Didn't he have the same three-point % as Scheyer?"

i don't think scheyer is a shooter either (many in-season posts about that last year).

[Duke12]

Wasn't Ricky Price a (the) leading scorer in California as well? CA high school basketball must favor crossover type slashing player

[yancem]

"I think that Nelson is capable of making strong improvements (you don't become the all time scoring champion of California if you don't have some game)"

i have been asking for two years if someone actually saw him play in cali because "all time scoring champion" does not equate to what i have seen. i suspect, and only suspect as i have no data whatsoever, that he got lots of points in transition and overpowered equal sized or smaller players with the near-the-hoop move i described earlier that gets him into trouble against bigger players now.

i can tell you this, he is not a shooter.

I've also been wondering how he became the all time scoring champ in CA. I agree that based on what he's done at Duke that it would appear that he scored most of his points in transition/drives to the hoop but with the 3 pointer being such a big part of the game, I would think that he had to make a fair number of 3's. Did anyone see him play in HS?

[Clipsfan]

"I think that Nelson is capable of making strong improvements (you don't become the all time scoring champion of California if you don't have some game)"

i have been asking for two years if someone actually saw him play in cali because "all time scoring champion" does not equate to what i have seen. i suspect, and only suspect as i have no data whatsoever, that he got lots of points in transition and overpowered equal sized or smaller players with the near-the-hoop move i described earlier that gets him into trouble against bigger players now.

i can tell you this, he is not a shooter.

I saw him play against Lincoln about 5-6 years ago (Telfair was on that Lincoln team). He actually got a lot of his points by making some long range 3s (he started lighting it up in the second half).

[jimsumner]

FWIW, DeMarcus Nelson has already identified the player he thinks will break his career scoring record; his younger brother. I believe his name is Darius but I didn't write it down and may have misremembered it. In any event his brother is 6'5" and in the 9th grade.

[Jumbo]

Well, there is one mechanical difference, perhaps not trivial: you're not allowed to jump when shooting a free throw. You must keep your feet on the ground. That's a fundamental difference from nearly all other shots players take.

Also even your best 3pt shooters are going to be 40-45% from the 3pt line. Only the very worst are that low for FT shooting.

You're allowed to jump on a FT. You just can't cross the FT line until the ball hits the rim.

[Jumbo]

I've also been wondering how he became the all time scoring champ in CA. I agree that based on what he's done at Duke that it would appear that he scored most of his points in transition/drives to the hoop but with the 3 pointer being such a big part of the game, I would think that he had to make a fair number of 3's. Did anyone see him play in HS?

He played against a low level of competition. California is a pretty large state, in case you haven't heard. The whole "leading scorer in CA history" thing is a giant red herring.