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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I hate to feed the (apparently) irrational belief that Harry might come back for a second season, but this line from the article did stick out to me:



    -Jason "just saying... seems like he has not 100% made up his mind where he will play his basketball next year" Evans
    Ingram didn't make up his mind until the end. Jabari didn't make up his mind until the end. Kyrie didn't make up his mind until the end.

    Lip service or truly undecided? Don't know, but I do know that Harry is gone after this year.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I hate to feed the (apparently) irrational belief that Harry might come back for a second season, but this line from the article did stick out to me:



    -Jason "just saying... seems like he has not 100% made up his mind where he will play his basketball next year" Evans
    I'm of mind to say the article itself is really just a PR piece to get him into the draft.

    Bad season, great player, strong resiliant character. Some scout will read this and bump him up a notch on his board.

    Duke set up this interview and knows how to tell the tale.

    Giles is one and done, the hope is to guarantee a lottery pick

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I hate to feed the (apparently) irrational belief that Harry might come back for a second season, but this line from the article did stick out to me:



    -Jason "just saying... seems like he has not 100% made up his mind where he will play his basketball next year" Evans
    I am always of two minds when reading lines like the one you quoted, Jason. First, I am an optimistic and idealistic person by nature, so I think that THIS player is the one whose love of college/love of Duke/developmental needs/injury situation/character will finally push him to another year of school instead of being lured by the money of the NBA. Then, my rational side kicks in, I remember Luol, Kyrie, and Jabari, think of the rookie pay scale, recall that the NBA drafts on potential, and resign myself to the freshman's departure.

    ...but maybe Harry really IS the one for whom it makes the most sense to stay? Maybe?

    Maybe I'm not so resigned as I think.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    I'm of mind to say the article itself is really just a PR piece to get him into the draft.

    Bad season, great player, strong resiliant character. Some scout will read this and bump him up a notch on his board.

    Duke set up this interview and knows how to tell the tale.

    Giles is one and done, the hope is to guarantee a lottery pick
    I agree with your take except for the "bad season" part.

    1) There is still much basketball left to be played.

    2) I think Harry's season is solidly in the "fair" territory. I'd say that's his floor at this point. He has recently bumped that up into "good" territory this month. I still think the sky is the limit. We may not, as Coach Capel said, see the Harry of old this season, but I still think, depending on how March turns out, that Harry could still turn in a "really good", possibly "great" season, or at least a "great" March.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by IrishDevil View Post
    I am always of two minds when reading lines like the one you quoted, Jason. First, I am an optimistic and idealistic person by nature, so I think that THIS player is the one whose love of college/love of Duke/developmental needs/injury situation/character will finally push him to another year of school instead of being lured by the money of the NBA. Then, my rational side kicks in, I remember Luol, Kyrie, and Jabari, think of the rookie pay scale, recall that the NBA drafts on potential, and resign myself to the freshman's departure.

    ...but maybe Harry really IS the one for whom it makes the most sense to stay? Maybe?

    Maybe I'm not so resigned as I think.
    We will be lucky to get Bolden back, if we do. Harry is gone.

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by Skitzle View Post
    I'm of mind to say the article itself is really just a PR piece to get him into the draft.

    Bad season, great player, strong resiliant character. Some scout will read this and bump him up a notch on his board.

    Duke set up this interview and knows how to tell the tale.

    Giles is one and done, the hope is to guarantee a lottery pick
    A pretty cynical take. Giles is an interesting story due to his stature (and myth) from HS, compared to the game-to-game struggles as he tries to approach his former level of play.

    My prediction is that Giles will continue to improve with some up and down statistical outputs, with at least a couple great games thrown in between now and the end of the season. And those 1-2 great games (hopefully more) will shoot him right back to the top part of the first round. And then he'll leave, as predicted... Scouts just need to see that he can reach those heights again IMO.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    We will be lucky to get Bolden back, if we do. Harry is gone.
    I know, I know - I just won't be resigned to that fact for a while yet.

    In the meantime, I will just enjoy the ride!

  8. #28
    It actually looks good for getting Bolden and Frank Jackson back (both were potential lottery picks before the season).

    On the other hand, Kennard is suddenly in play.

    Take it FWIW, but I talked to an NBA scout last week and from what he hears, Tatum, Allen and Giles are all gone ... Bolden and Jackson are not on the NBA radar.

    Save your hopes and prayers for Kennard -- he's definitely a possibility, but he could definitely stay for another year.

    PS Just checked the two main mock draft sites. NBA.net projects Tatum (6), Giles (11) Kennard (21) in the first round, along with Dennis Smith, John Collins, Dwayne Bacon, Justin Jackson and Tony Bradley all as first round picks. Draftexpress lists Tatum (5), Giles (19), Kennard (23) and Allen (5 in the second round), along with Smith, Issac, Collins, Lydon, Mitchell and Jackson in the first round.
    Last edited by Olympic Fan; 02-17-2017 at 02:27 PM.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Ingram didn't make up his mind until the end. Jabari didn't make up his mind until the end. Kyrie didn't make up his mind until the end.

    Lip service or truly undecided? Don't know, but I do know that Harry is gone after this year.
    I think you are right. But I also think Harry's situation is unique compared to Duke's other recent true OAD players. The benefit to him is far more than the typical fan argument, "He could really benefit from one more year of development to improve/polish his game for the pros." In reality, staying another year could only cost those OAD players money and delay them getting to that second contract by a year. There were no real pros to them staying from a business/professional standpoint.

    With Harry, as of right now, there are legitimate pros to staying one more year. Everything I say after this sentence could obviously change if Harry continues to progress and impress through February and March. His draft stock could easily shoot back up depending on how he performs going forward.

    With that caveat in mind: In Harry's case, staying one more year could actually make him millions of dollars more over the course of his first contract. Right now he likely would not be a lottery pick. He might even be a "late first rounder." If he stays one more year, gets healthy, and plays up to his potential, he will be a top-5 pick next year. That could mean upwards of $2-3 million more per year over his rookie contract. That's not insignificant. Of course, coming back comes with the obvious risk of injury, which is a big deal given Harry's history. Harry also would have to truly believe that he's fully capable of being the player everyone projected him to be in HS. I believe he still is, but he basically says in the interview he isn't all the way back mentally, yet. So Harry needs to believe it, too.

    I think it's unlikely Harry returns, but unlike most of Duke's recent OAD players, Harry actually has legitimate reasons to consider it.

    *EDIT* I just read Olympic Fan's posts on projected draft positions. If Harry is still a projected lottery pick, which was not the sense I had going into this post, then he should go.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Take it FWIW, but I talked to an NBA scout last week and from what he hears, Tatum, Allen and Giles are all gone ... Bolden and Jackson are not on the NBA radar.

    PS Just checked the two main mock draft sites. NBA.net projects Tatum (6), Giles (11) Kennard (21) in the first round, along with Dennis Smith, John Collins, Dwayne Bacon, Justin Jackson and Tony Bradley all as first round picks. Draftexpress lists Tatum (5), Giles (19), Kennard (23) and Allen (5 in the second round), along with Smith, Issac, Collins, Lydon, Mitchell and Jackson in the first round.
    Do those mock drafts truly lead you to believe the scout is correct and Allen is gone? Allen partially derailed this season and will have less competition in next year's draft. Allen may have had a better chance going in last year's first round.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    Do those mock drafts truly lead you to believe the scout is correct and Allen is gone? Allen partially derailed this season and will have less competition in next year's draft. Allen may have had a better chance going in last year's first round.
    I think you can count on Allen being gone...he's going to graduate...he's packed four years of experiences (good and bad) into a three year Duke career. Hopefully some more good stuff to come.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I think you can count on Allen being gone...he's going to graduate...he's packed four years of experiences (good and bad) into a three year Duke career. Hopefully some more good stuff to come.
    I agree it was clearly the preseason plan (shown by the academics). However, getting a Duke graduate degree and significantly increasing his chances to go in the 1st round would not be an irrational consideration or decision. Where do you think he would have gone in last year's draft?

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by tux View Post
    A pretty cynical take. Giles is an interesting story due to his stature (and myth) from HS, compared to the game-to-game struggles as he tries to approach his former level of play.

    My prediction is that Giles will continue to improve with some up and down statistical outputs, with at least a couple great games thrown in between now and the end of the season. And those 1-2 great games (hopefully more) will shoot him right back to the top part of the first round. And then he'll leave, as predicted... Scouts just need to see that he can reach those heights again IMO.
    Harry's story is a movie in the making..All it needs is the happy ending. Final 4 MVP? NBA Allstar? NBA Championship? NBA MVP?

    Depends on when you write the final chapter.

  14. #34
    I don't think it's a guarantee that Giles goes. I think Bolden would be crazy to leave or a.GM would be crazy to draft him. He's relatively unproven at this point.

  15. #35

    quick and dirty PV analysis

    So Harry's decision from a purely money perspective is maybe not so clear.

    I ran a SUPER simple analysis, comparing the present value of a #20 pick in 2017 versus a #1 in 2018. I assumed in both cases that the player would start his 5th season at KD's current salary (26 million) and grow 10% a year for 10 years. So a 14 year NBA career at near top dollar. I know the cap will probably increase, but just to keep it simple.

    The PV of those two cash flows came out to within 2 million of each other, with the 2018 start being the higher one. The difference of starting at 5 million versus 1.2 or so is a pretty big headwind, even though going early gets "the clock" going.

    On the spectrum, no where near enough analysis even if this were only a financial decision, but I was surprised it came out so closely.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    I liked when this thread was about Harry, not the after-season decision he will need to make.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    Harry's story is a movie in the making..All it needs is the happy ending. Final 4 MVP? NBA Allstar? NBA Championship? NBA MVP?

    Depends on when you write the final chapter.
    I see a steadily improving Harry and rock solid Amile sharing duties in the post throughout the ACC and NCAA tournaments, with the two of them anchoring a nasty defense, controlling the boards, and providing solid offense as Duke follows an ACC tournament championship with the University's 6th Natty. They both ride off into the sunset (and the NBA), to much success and deserved acclaim.

    K, of course, sticks around because 7 is better than 6.

    PS: OPK...why enjoy the season when we can fret about the post-season?

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    I see a steadily improving Harry and rock solid Amile sharing duties in the post throughout the ACC and NCAA tournaments, with the two of them anchoring a nasty defense, controlling the boards, and providing solid offense as Duke follows an ACC tournament championship with the University's 6th Natty. They both ride off into the sunset (and the NBA), to much success and deserved acclaim.

    K, of course, sticks around because 7 is better than 6.

    PS: OPK...why enjoy the season when we can fret about the post-season?
    I need to know if I should include him in my 2017-18 minutes projection thread or not.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by WVDUKEFAN View Post
    I don't think it's a guarantee that Giles goes. I think Bolden would be crazy to leave or a.GM would be crazy to draft him. He's relatively unproven at this point.
    he's big and tall and can tell a basketball from a watermelon. (and more, I'm sure...). Not to mention he's shown a knack for blocking shots.

    that's more than enough potential to get drafted.
    1200. DDMF.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    new york
    I view the Harry version of the will he stay or go
    melodrama differently than all the others. I want him to go.
    Absent His draft stock collapsing, it's clearly in his
    best interest to go and that by a wide margin trumps whatever
    he might mean for next years team. With his
    injury history, were he my son, it's a no brainer
    to go. I hope he has a long career and does turn
    Into Chris Webber or Kevin Garnett but he shouldn't play for free next year unless he has an
    insurance policy that sets him for life no matter what -- and even then I'm not so sure. Seems
    like a great kid. Hope he wins a Natty this year and kills it in the league for many years after that.

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