MBB: Duke 65, UVA 55 Post-Game Thread

[CDu]

I've only watched UVA Thrice this year and Guy played poorly in all three games. He takes and misses a lot of difficult shots from what I've seen. I've heard announcers say he's a scorer but I just haven't seen it.

Guy is shooting 48% on 3s, 44% on 2s, and averaging 7.6 points per 17.4 minutes. He may have had bad games in the three games you saw, but he is and has been a really good offensive player.

[Troublemaker]

Collins and Bilas did a good job addressing the very high PNR Duke was repeatedly running in the 2nd half, but let's take a second look anyway. It's fun when the shoe is on the other foot and the opposing D is having trouble with Duke's PNR.

One thing to note is that towards the beginning of the half, the PNR ball-handler (usually Luke, who took over point b/c Grayson had re-sprained his ankle) had complete disinterest in driving. The PNR ball-handler was just a decoy; Duke's interest was to have UVA hard hedge and then move the ball to take advantage of the spacing that both the hedge and the roll by Duke's big man created. In other words, the PNR ball-handler became a pass-only position at first.

Duke started the half with a very high PNR. High-resolution version. Perrantes has to help on Amile's roll, and then Matt was able to attack his closeout. Because we ran the PNR so high, Luke's defender Hall was a non-factor to help on Matt's decisive, immediate drive; that's very un-PackLine like to not have perimeter defenders available to cut off the drive. AND the UVA big man Salt was still retreating with his back turned when Matt started the drive, another side effect of running it very high. Thankfully, Matt was able to finish.

[Troublemaker]

Even though this is a side PNR with Matt, the concept is the same. High-res version. He has no intention of driving. He just waits for UVA to come hedge, and then Duke attacks with its passing. Amile's roll sucked in the weakside defender covering Jayson, and Grayson makes a good skip pass to Jayson for the wide-open three.

[Troublemaker]

We ran it almost every trip down the court. I'm only showing a few examples. Here's one with Grayson as the PNR ball-handler. High-res version. Look how high this is run! Grayson passes to the wing Matt, who makes the entry pass into the paint. Harry gets fouled. That's pretty offense. Harry rolls down the left side of the lane, so the weakside help almost certainly can't contest this entry pass and will end up on Harry's back. Matt actually had options on this play. He could've skipped it to Jayson for a wide-open three as well.

[Troublemaker]

Towards the middle of the half, UVA's players began playing Duke's tendency to pass from the PNR ball-handler position. This opened up the drive. On this play (high-res version), Luke's defender Hall was playing the pass as much as the drive. So Luke makes a beautiful pivot and drives him and gets 2 free throws out of it.

[Troublemaker]

Similar to the above, here Luke uses a pass-fake to get the defender Shayok off-balance to begin his drive. High-res version. If he were guarding mere mortals, Shayok actually did a nice job recovering, but here Luke doesn't let him escape the torture chamber. Finishes Shayok with a beautiful spin for a soft 2-pt mid-ranger.



That is all for now, folks. Time for another cup of coffee and to start my day.

[MChambers]

Thanks for PNR explanations, Troublemaker!

[BandAlum83]

Excellent posts and education, Troublemaker! (of course I can't Spork you)

ETA: I guess I've been promiscuous lately. I was able to spork you.

[Duke76]

If you're talking about on the current roster, then yes, definitely.

I don't think they come close to top 5 all time though...

Maggette, Dahntay Jones, Gerald, MP1, and G. Hill rank ahead of them IMO.

no i am not talking about the current roster. I am talking about all time and I am talking about from a standing position going straight up for a rebound on either end. maybe it is their arm length plus their vertical jump...they just look on tv to be up there...said another way I'd like to see how high on the backboard they can touch from a standing position

[Doria]

Thanks for PNR explanations, Troublemaker!

Yes, thank you! I was trying to explain the PNR to my roommate, but visuals definitely help (I was reduced to using household items to stand in for players; perhaps needless to say, it was less than enlightening to him).

[davekay1971]

Excellent posts and education, Troublemaker! (of course I can't Spork you)

ETA: I guess I've been promiscuous lately. I was able to spork you.

Agreed. That was a great series of posts. I'm also being told to engage in promiscuous sporking before sporking Troublemaker again. Otherwise...yeah, you'd get a morning sporking.

[Indoor66]

Agreed. That was a great series of posts. I'm also being told to engage in promiscuous sporking before sporking Troublemaker again. Otherwise...yeah, you'd get a morning sporking.

Nothing like sporking in the morning. Gets the day going in the right mood.

[Wahoo2000]

Been without my macbook for a week (logic board failed), and my strong dislike of navigating/posting on a phone means I missed my favorite week of the year (leadup to the Duke/UVa game).

Now that things are back in working order, wanted to be sure to drop by and offer my congratulations on the win. You guys are moving in the right direction for sure. We're doing.... something else.

I've known since Nichols was suspended that we were probably in for a tough season (by our newly raised expectations due to performance over the last 3 years). Our junior class of Hall, Wilkins, Shayok, Thompson are just not quite what we need from a talent standpoint to beat the VERY best teams in the country. To maintain our level of play from recent years, one of those guys really needed to step up a la Harris/Anderson/Brogdon. Still, thanks to Bennett's outstanding coaching, we're better than MOST teams, and can compete with (if not beat) the truly elite teams.

I think the game with you guys came down to 2 things:
1 - Poor 3pt shooting. We have little/no inside presence offensively this season (again, thanks to Austin Nichols). We MUST make a good % of our 3pt attempts to win big games. We were shooting very well as a team (top 10 nationally) from deep into January, but have cooled off significantly lately. In our last six games, where we've gone 2-4, we are shooting 39-114 (34%) from deep. All of those losses are games that came down to 1-2 possessions, too.
2 - The move by K to run that PNR soooo very high. As far out as Duke was initiating that play, I think Bennett made a mistake by still having our bigs hedge so aggressively. It created too much of an advantage with the additional space. We should have allowed the on-ball defender to go under the screens at anything out near 30 feet and if Luke/Grayson/whoever was going to drain 33-35 footers, so be it. Instead, the additional space behind the play meant that when the screener slipped, you were basically running a "mini" 4-3 break to the basket. Hopefully we see some adjustment if we play you guys in the ACC tourney.

One bright spot for me was that Jerome, Diakite, and Guy were more than serviceable. I expect that with an offseason of S&C and the experience gained this year, those guys will form a formidable core moving forward for us. 2 guys redshirting right now too that I'd put on par with those 3. Better years ahead for my Hoos, I think.

At this point, I think the only thing limiting Duke from reaching the preseason potential is Allen and Giles really finding their groove and playing their best. IF they do, you could probably run roughshod over the field to a title. Even if they don't pick it up though, you're still going to be one of the top 10 teams in the mix (nationally, not ACC).

Last - the one bit of solace I'll take in the loss is that even despite our shortcomings, we forced Duke to convert very low % (by the stats) in crunchtime to beat us. Maybe someday, the Allens/Suliamons/Joneses/Tatums WON'T make huge dagger shots down the stretch to beat us....... :-(

[OldPhiKap]

Been without my macbook for a week (logic board failed), and my strong dislike of navigating/posting on a phone means I missed my favorite week of the year (leadup to the Duke/UVa game).

Now that things are back in working order, wanted to be sure to drop by and offer my congratulations on the win. You guys are moving in the right direction for sure. We're doing... something else.

I've known since Nichols was suspended that we were probably in for a tough season (by our newly raised expectations due to performance over the last 3 years). Our junior class of Hall, Wilkins, Shayok, Thompson are just not quite what we need from a talent standpoint to beat the VERY best teams in the country. To maintain our level of play from recent years, one of those guys really needed to step up a la Harris/Anderson/Brogdon. Still, thanks to Bennett's outstanding coaching, we're better than MOST teams, and can compete with (if not beat) the truly elite teams.

I think the game with you guys came down to 2 things:
1 - Poor 3pt shooting. We have little/no inside presence offensively this season (again, thanks to Austin Nichols). We MUST make a good % of our 3pt attempts to win big games. We were shooting very well as a team (top 10 nationally) from deep into January, but have cooled off significantly lately. In our last six games, where we've gone 2-4, we are shooting 39-114 (34%) from deep. All of those losses are games that came down to 1-2 possessions, too.
2 - The move by K to run that PNR soooo very high. As far out as Duke was initiating that play, I think Bennett made a mistake by still having our bigs hedge so aggressively. It created too much of an advantage with the additional space. We should have allowed the on-ball defender to go under the screens at anything out near 30 feet and if Luke/Grayson/whoever was going to drain 33-35 footers, so be it. Instead, the additional space behind the play meant that when the screener slipped, you were basically running a "mini" 4-3 break to the basket. Hopefully we see some adjustment if we play you guys in the ACC tourney.

One bright spot for me was that Jerome, Diakite, and Guy were more than serviceable. I expect that with an offseason of S&C and the experience gained this year, those guys will form a formidable core moving forward for us. 2 guys redshirting right now too that I'd put on par with those 3. Better years ahead for my Hoos, I think.

At this point, I think the only thing limiting Duke from reaching the preseason potential is Allen and Giles really finding their groove and playing their best. IF they do, you could probably run roughshod over the field to a title. Even if they don't pick it up though, you're still going to be one of the top 10 teams in the mix (nationally, not ACC).

Last - the one bit of solace I'll take in the loss is that even despite our shortcomings, we forced Duke to convert very low % (by the stats) in crunchtime to beat us. Maybe someday, the Allens/Suliamons/Joneses/Tatums WON'T make huge dagger shots down the stretch to beat us.... :-(

We're all pulling for you tonight in Chapel Hill!

[Wahoo2000]

That said... I hate to rain on the parade but it is now an obvious pattern and plan to play Bolden in the first half only unless someone kidnaps Amile and Harry, and to only sub Frank in for Grayson. Even though he played great tonight, if Amile doesn't pick up the quick 4th foul, I don't think Giles sees the floor in the 2nd half. I do not understand it and I do not agree with it, but the GOAT has 1000+ more wins than me. Why we aren't interchanging the 4 of Grayson, Matt, Luke, Frank in the 3 slots (PG/Wing/Wing) the entire game, getting ea of them x amount of rest the entire game, and likewise interchanging the 4 of Amile, Tatum, Harry, Bolden for the 2 spots (PF-Stretch Forward/Center) the entire game, getting ea of them x amount of rest the entire game is just baffling to me. I don't find it necessary for Luke, Matt, and Tatum to play every single second of every single second half of games. We have a tremendous amount of talent. Chase, Vrank, Javin, and Jack would get minutes on a lot of ACC teams imo. Bolden would be a starter on most ACC teams imo.


I hate being Debbie Downer here, as tonight was a huge win and the guys are now playing Top 10 Level basketball, but in my humble opinion, the current formula will not get us an ACC Tournament Championship and will not get us a Regional Championship to make the Final 4. It will get us a lot of wins, probably a top 4 finish in ACC Regular Season, a semi-finals appearance in the ACC Tournament, and a Sweet 16 appearance with collective fatigue ending our run in all 3 of those competitions.

Regarding the bolded portion, I agree that the short bench and heavy minutes are likely a huge factor in Duke's lack of an ACC tournament championships over the last few years. If you're going to have to play a minimum of 3 games in 3 days, with at least 2 games likely vs top-shelf competition, you just aren't going to be successful playing multiple guys 33+ minutes. By the time you get to the title game, those guys are going to be a little drained.

I'd disagree with the assertion that it would keep the team from making a run in the NCAA's though - with a caveat: guys can probably be around 33-35 min with only one day of rest (and then a 3-5 day rest before moving to regionals/ff), but maybe not 37-40 min. Still, even with only playing Jackson about 5 min, and Bolden about 5, nobody else should have to be over 35ish min. I think a recipe for success for Duke in the NCAAs would be to have Allen/Kennard/Jones all around 32-33mpg each and the remainder of backcourt/wing min made up by Jackson (5) and Tatum (about 5-7 on the wing). The 80 frontcourt minutes can be split between Jefferson/Tatum (about 28-30 min each), Giles (about 15-18 min), and Bolden (5 min).

I absolutely think Duke could also be successful playing Jackson a little more and lightening the burden on Allen/Kennard/Jones. Don't really think you need Bolden as much though, especially as Giles continues to improve and Tatum plays a bulk of his time at the 4.

[Kedsy]

Regarding the bolded portion, I agree that the short bench and heavy minutes are likely a huge factor in Duke's lack of an ACC tournament championships over the last few years. If you're going to have to play a minimum of 3 games in 3 days, with at least 2 games likely vs top-shelf competition, you just aren't going to be successful playing multiple guys 33+ minutes. By the time you get to the title game, those guys are going to be a little drained.

Not sure I agree with this. Here are Duke's top five minute-getters in each game for our last five ACC championships:

2011:
39,38,31,31,24
39,39,36,26,22
39,39,33,28,27

2010:
38,37,32,27,19
39,38,31,28,26
39,38,30,28,23

2009
40,39,36,25,22
40,37,33,30,23
40,38,38,25,19

2006
40,38,32,29,27
36,35,34,39,38
37,37,32,25,22

2005
36,32,31,29,24
40,39,33,30,24
40,38,37,36,24

14 of the 15 games (all wins, obviously) had multiple Duke players logging 33+ minutes (and the only exception had a 36 and a 32 in the first Duke game of the 2005 ACCT). In fact, in 13 of the 15 games, we had multiple guys playing 37+ minutes. So I don't think it's the high mpg that's been keeping Duke from winning ACC tournaments recently.

[Highlander]

To be fair, UVa's 21 fouls was inflated by the foul fest at the end. UVa had just 13 fouls with 1:36 to go in the game, but fouled us 8 times (3 times just to get into the bonus, and then 5 more times after that).

Of course, both teams committed way more than 12/13 fouls in the game. The officials were just letting them play so to speak.

That's true, but subtract out all those fouls and Duke is still lower, albeit by only one. My point is really a gripe that the announcer's never commented once on DUKE'S ability to "play without fouling," while I heard that comment at least 3-4 separate times on UVA. Even if you subtract all of UVA's intentional fouls, Duke still was called for fewer.

And the officials certainly did let everyone play, except for Amile Jefferson. I probably said "moving screen" an average of 2 times per offensive possession for UVA.