NCAA top 16 revealed on Sat

[dukelifer]

The selection committee will reveal the top 16 on Saturday. A new twist. Will Duke make the top 16? I say yes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

The selection committee will reveal the top 16 on Saturday. A new twist. Will Duke make the top 16? I say yes.

Most definitely. I think we're a solid 4 seed now. Beat Clemson, let others lose, and Duke becomes a 3 seed really quickly. 2-seed? That's the goal. It's a challenging goal, but it's definitely doable. 1-seed? Nearly impossible. We need to win out and win the ACC Tournament. Nearly impossible.

[CDu]

Will we be in the top-16 this week? I don't know. And ultimately at this point I don't care. We have road games coming against UNC and UVa, a home game against FSU, and the ACC tournament. If we win most/all of those games, we'll be where we want to be come NCAA seed time.

[dukelifer]

Will we be in the top-16 this week? I don't know. And ultimately at this point I don't care. We have road games coming against UNC and UVa, a home game against FSU, and the ACC tournament. If we win most/all of those games, we'll be where we want to be come NCAA seed time.

Clearly it does not matter- too much basketball left to play. It is attempting to bring a little more official attention to the tourney and more fuel for sports radio.

[Reilly]

So if we let Kenpom pick it:

1: Gonzaga, UVA, L'ville, WVU
2: 'Nova, FLA, UK, Baylor
3: KU, UNC, Purdue, Wisc
4: FSU, Duke, SMU, St. Mary's

If we let SRS pick it (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...7-ratings.html)

1: WVU, Gonzaga, L'ville, UK
2: UVA, UNC, FLA, 'Nova
3: KU, Duke, Purdue, FSU
4: UCLA, Wisc, Baylor, Oregon

[Turk]

Lunardi does not have Duke in his top 16. Also, he went back and looked at his bracket from Feb 11 last year, just for giggles, and compared to the actual bracket. Three teams fell out of the top 16: Maryland - lost 4 of 6 to close out the regular season; Iowa - lost 5 of 6; Dayton lost 2 of 3 and ended up in a 3 way tie for the A-10 regular season title.

However, all this is just nonsense - the top 16 are probably the easiest to pick / guess. There will be a couple teams that fade down the stretch or are the last couple #4 seeds with no margin for error. Big deal.

In Duke's case, there are 7 games left. Win the three home games (Clem, WF, and F$U Senior Night). Split the four road games (UVa, Syr, Miami, UNCheat) to finish 5-2. That should remove all doubt for a #3. If the Devils win 3 of 4 road games and a couple games in the ACCT, that should put them in the mix for a #2.

[DavidBenAkiva]

So if we let Kenpom pick it:

1: Gonzaga, UVA, L'ville, WVU
2: 'Nova, FLA, UK, Baylor
3: KU, UNC, Purdue, Wisc
4: FSU, Duke, SMU, St. Mary's

If we let SRS pick it (http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...7-ratings.html)

1: WVU, Gonzaga, L'ville, UK
2: UVA, UNC, FLA, 'Nova
3: KU, Duke, Purdue, FSU
4: UCLA, Wisc, Baylor, Oregon

And if we let Sagarin pick it (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/):

1: Gonzaga, WVU, UVA, Louisville
2: Villanova, UK, KU, UNC
3: Florida, Duke, Wisconsin, Purdue
4: Baylor, UCLA, Oregon, FSU

And if we let BPI pick it (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi):

1: UVA, Villanova, WVU, Louisville
2: Florida, Gonzaga, Duke, UNC
3: Purdue, KU, UK, UCLA
4: Oregon, Wisconsin, Baylor, Saint Mary's

I think we'll be a 3 seed on Saturday, all things being equal. If I had to guess it based on the combination of these rating systems and my hunches about how the committee will see it, here's what I would go with (teams sorted by alphabetical order within seed):

1: Gonzaga, Louisville, Villanova, WVU
2: Baylor, KU, UNC, UVA
3: Duke, Purdue, Oregon, Wisconsin
4: Florida, FSU, UCLA, UK

I also anticipate that UK fans will I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. and moan about being a 4 seed while Duke is a 3 seed until you point out that our record against this field (2-3) is better than theirs (1-4) and against many of the same teams.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Lunardi does not have Duke in his top 16. Also, he went back and looked at his bracket from Feb 11 last year, just for giggles, and compared to the actual bracket. Three teams fell out of the top 16: Maryland - lost 4 of 6 to close out the regular season; Iowa - lost 5 of 6; Dayton lost 2 of 3 and ended up in a 3 way tie for the A-10 regular season title.

However, all this is just nonsense - the top 16 are probably the easiest to pick / guess. There will be a couple teams that fade down the stretch or are the last couple #4 seeds with no margin for error. Big deal.

In Duke's case, there are 7 games left. Win the three home games (Clem, WF, and F$U Senior Night). Split the four road games (UVa, Syr, Miami, UNCheat) to finish 5-2. That should remove all doubt for a #3. If the Devils win 3 of 4 road games and a couple games in the ACCT, that should put them in the mix for a #2.

I don't see how Lunardi has Duke as a 5 seed below Cincinnati (4), Florida (4), Kentucky (3), or Wisconsin (3). How do any of those teams have a better resume than Duke? Ultimately, it matters not. Duke has opportunities each of the next three weeks to win against teams currently seeded 2 (UNC), 3 (Florida State and Virginia), and 11 (Syracuse), and more during the ACC Tournament. If Duke does well, losing no more than once, against the remaining schedule, then the team will have earned as high as a 2 seed. I can live with that. Heck, if we win out and win the ACC Tournament, which is unlikely but possible, Duke could have a strong case as a 1 seed.

[jv001]

And if we let Sagarin pick it (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaab/sagarin/):

1: Gonzaga, WVU, UVA, Louisville
2: Villanova, UK, KU, UNC
3: Florida, Duke, Wisconsin, Purdue
4: Baylor, UCLA, Oregon, FSU

And if we let BPI pick it (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bpi):

1: UVA, Villanova, WVU, Louisville
2: Florida, Gonzaga, Duke, UNC
3: Purdue, KU, UK, UCLA
4: Oregon, Wisconsin, Baylor, Saint Mary's

I think we'll be a 3 seed on Saturday, all things being equal. If I had to guess it based on the combination of these rating systems and my hunches about how the committee will see it, here's what I would go with (teams sorted by alphabetical order within seed):

1: Gonzaga, Louisville, Villanova, WVU
2: Baylor, KU, UNC, UVA
3: Duke, Purdue, Oregon, Wisconsin
4: Florida, FSU, UCLA, UK

I also anticipate that UK fans will I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. and moan about being a 4 seed while Duke is a 3 seed until you point out that our record against this field (2-3) is better than theirs (1-4) and against many of the same teams.

Why are all the media types raving about Arizona? I have not seen them play this year and honestly don't know much about them. GoDuke!

[OldPhiKap]

I don't begrudge anyone for not having us in their top 16 before the UNC game.

*Assuming* we take care of business against the Tigers, I don't see how anyone would have us out of that group.

No worries, so long as we just keep taking care of business. TCB, Baby.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Why are all the media types raving about Arizona? I have not seen them play this year and honestly don't know much about them. GoDuke!

I have not seem them play too much, but the games I have seen make them look pretty good. They have some unique and talented players. The most intriguing is Lauri Markkanen from Finland. The Big Fin is a 7 foot scorer putting up 15.6 pts and 7.3 rebs on 47.5% shooting from 3 and 50.0% overall. He's a surprisingly talented offensive force, although his block rate is surprisingly low for a guy his size and reasonable level of athleticism. He looks very much like the next Dirk Nowitzki. They also have a trio of high quality guards/wings in (until recently suspended) Allonzo Trier, Rawle Alkins, and Kobi Simmons. Trier is a Sophomore while Alkins and Simmons are freshmen. I think a lot of their appeal comes from having nearly as much high quality young talent as almost anyone in the country. But they lack a true point guard (sound familiar?) and have good but not great efficiency stats (25th in both offensive and defensive efficiency using KenPom). They had a big win against UCLA not too long ago when Allonzo Trier made his season debut. They were subsequently blown out by Oregon but don't have any bad losses on their schedule, losing close games against Gonzaga and Butler. They had a close victory against Michigan State but haven't really had more than that one signature victory against UCLA. I think their appeal comes from the unknown of that young talent.

[CDu]

I don't see how Lunardi has Duke as a 5 seed below Cincinnati (4), Florida (4), Kentucky (3), or Wisconsin (3). How do any of those teams have a better resume than Duke? Ultimately, it matters not. Duke has opportunities each of the next three weeks to win against teams currently seeded 2 (UNC), 3 (Florida State and Virginia), and 11 (Syracuse), and more during the ACC Tournament. If Duke does well, losing no more than once, against the remaining schedule, then the team will have earned as high as a 2 seed. I can live with that. Heck, if we win out and win the ACC Tournament, which is unlikely but possible, Duke could have a strong case as a 1 seed.

If we win out (including the ACC tourney), I think there is no way we are anything but the #1 seed in either the East or South region.

Not to be lost, but two of our losses were without Jefferson. The committee should be taking that into account.

[Philadukie]

If we win out (including the ACC tourney), I think there is no way we are anything but the #1 seed in either the East or South region.

Not to be lost, but two of our losses were without Jefferson. The committee should be taking that into account.

They will also discount the losses without K if we win out.

[CDu]

They will also discount the losses without K if we win out.

Excellent point. Between finishing the season 29-5, on a 14-game winning streak, winning one of the two toughest conferences in basketball (and the toughest at the top), likely finishing in the top-5 in RPI and other metrics (we'd almost have to end up there if we keep winning against this conference), and having the potential to have three of our losses heavily discounted due to a missing player and/or coach, there is just no way we'd end up as anything but a 1 seed.

Now, I don't think that's a likely scenario at all. But if we did run the table, there is no way we aren't a 1 seed.

ETA: the loss to Va Tech was without Allen too. And the Kansas loss was without Tatum (and Giles and Bolden, though those guys are backups). So all five of our ACC losses came without one of our All-ACC caliber starters. And three of the losses came without our head coach.

[jv001]

Excellent point. Between finishing the season 29-5, on a 14-game winning streak, winning one of the two toughest conferences in basketball (and the toughest at the top), likely finishing in the top-5 in RPI and other metrics (we'd almost have to end up there if we keep winning against this conference), and having the potential to have three of our losses heavily discounted due to a missing player and/or coach, there is just no way we'd end up as anything but a 1 seed.

Now, I don't think that's a likely scenario at all. But if we did run the table, there is no way we aren't a 1 seed.

ETA: the loss to Va Tech was without Allen too. And the Kansas loss was without Tatum (and Giles and Bolden, though those guys are backups). So all five of our ACC losses came without one of our All-ACC caliber starters. And three of the losses came without our head coach.

Not that the committee would take it into consideration, all the practice time missed by all of our rotation players with the exception of Luke. When you take everything into account, we're blessed to be in a situation that the team can get a 1-4 seed. GoDuke!

[mgtr]

I went to a high school in the Midwest which was always competitive in basketball (this was well before schools were put in brackets by size, everybody competed for the same prize). One year our coach was criticized for the team not being ranked higher than it was. His answer -- do you want a team to peak in midseason or at the end of the season? This has always made sense to me.

[wilko]

So by having a lower seed we play earlier, right? Im ok with an afternoon game and not the nightcap for a change...

[Troublemaker]

I'll take a stab at this using the latest Bracket Matrix released today at 6:06pm

East	MidWest	West	South
1. Villanova	1. Kansas	1. Gonzaga	1. Baylor
2. UNC	2. Louisville	2. Arizona	2. Florida St
3. Wisconsin	3. Oregon	3. UVA	3. UCLA
4. Duke	4. Butler	4. Florida	4. Kentucky

[devildeac]

I'll take a stab at this using the latest Bracket Matrix released today at 6:06pm

East	MidWest	West	South
1. Villanova	1. Kansas	1. Gonzaga	1. Baylor
2. UNC	2. Louisville	2. Arizona	2. Florida St
3. Wisconsin	3. Oregon	3. UVA	3. UCLA
4. Duke	4. Butler	4. Florida	4. Kentucky

Cleanest post I've read this evening.

[subzero02]

The staged sixteen will be announced at 1230pm on CBS... the result of the game vs. Clemson will not be factored in.

http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-...and-everything