The Road to First Place

[Skitzle]

Hi Friends,

Today I did the math.

Steps to first place
1) Duke wins out
2) Virginia and UNC split but win every other game
3) Florida State loses a game to someone not named Duke.

In this case Duke has 4 losses and everyone else has at least 5.

Alternative case:
Duke goes back in time and wins the NC state game, then the road to first place is Duke wins out.
If anyone can make this happen, I'm happy to help.

[CDu]

Hi Friends,

Today I did the math.

Steps to first place
1) Duke wins out
2) Virginia and UNC split but win every other game
3) Florida State loses a game to someone not named Duke.

In this case Duke has 4 losses and everyone else has at least 5.

Alternative case:
Duke goes back in time and wins the NC state game, then the road to first place is Duke wins out.
If anyone can make this happen, I'm happy to help.

It is actually simpler than that. Your scenario would give us the outright regular season crown. But if we win out, we hold the tiebreakers over both UVa and UNC. So it wouldn't matter if they split. And we would have a split with FSU, so it would just come down to records against the next best team (in a two-way tie) or pooled head-to-head (in a 3-way tie).

The simplest path is for Duke to win out and for UNC to win all other non-Duke games. That would give us a share of first place, and by virtue of tiebreakers the #1 seed. But that is yucky because we would share the crown with UNC.

Aside from that, we would just need for UNC to be ahead of Louisville, VT, and State for us to take the #1 spot if we win out.

[Troublemaker]

I'm still not going to get my hopes up until after we beat Clemson and UVA. We lose either of those games, and we're pretty much done, right? For the regular season crown, I mean. We'd be 8-5 with 3 tough road games remaining (@Cuse, @Miami, @UNC) and a home game against an FSU team that's playing lights out right now.

But, your mileage may vary on when hopes should be gotten up.

[vfefrenzy]

Option B: Don't worry about seeds. Beat the teams we play in the ACC Tournament and win the only ACC Championship there is.

[MCFinARL]

Hi Friends,

Today I did the math.

Steps to first place
1) Duke wins out
2) Virginia and UNC split but win every other game
3) Florida State loses a game to someone not named Duke.

In this case Duke has 4 losses and everyone else has at least 5.

Alternative case:
Duke goes back in time and wins the NC state game, then the road to first place is Duke wins out.
If anyone can make this happen, I'm happy to help.

Sure wish I could. In the meantime though, in your first scenario I assume step 2 means "every other game except for their games against Duke," yes?

[CDu]

I'm still not going to get my hopes up until after we beat Clemson and UVA. We lose either of those games, and we're pretty much done, right? For the regular season crown, I mean. We'd be 8-5 with 3 tough road games remaining (@Cuse, @Miami, @UNC) and a home game against an FSU team that's playing lights out right now.

But, your mileage may vary on when hopes should be gotten up.

Even at 8-5, we wouldn't be done. We'd just be back to about a 3-5% chance of winning the regular season title.

If we win those two games, though, I'd say we'd be up into the 25-30% chance of winning that title.

[CDu]

Sure wish I could. In the meantime though, in your first scenario I assume step 2 means "every other game except for their games against Duke," yes?

Yes, because we largely need UNC to beat Louisville (barring some funky tiebreaker scenarios).

[jv001]

Yes, because we largely need UNC to beat Louisville (barring some funky tiebreaker scenarios).

CDu, I don't think I can root for the cheats even if it meant a first place finish in the ACC. I would look at the situation and think well it did help Duke. But to actually root for them, not even if they play Satan and his imps. GoDuke!

[stedge]

Option B: Don't worry about seeds. Beat the teams we play in the ACC Tournament and win the only ACC Championship there is.

bingo
w the uneven regular season the best team may not have the best record. just play the games and get the bye.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

CDu, I don't think I can root for the cheats even if it meant a first place finish in the ACC. I would look at the situation and think well it did help Duke. But to actually root for them, not even if they play Satan and his imps. GoDuke!

The way this season has played out, the losses will be there if we can get the Ws

[uh_no]

bingo
w the uneven regular season the best team may not have the best record. just play the games and get the bye.

i wish conferences were smart enough to only award one game in the record even if you play a game twice. you either finish 1-0, 0-1, or .5-.5....you could fix unbalanced schedules instantly.

[duke2x]

Sitting as the current 6 seed, I will be happy with a top 4 finish, which I still think is a reasonable goal at 7-4. I'm not sure 12-6 guarantees at top 4 seed. The games with UVA and Syracuse become big for tiebreakers.

The location of the ACC tournament is favorable. We need Syracuse, NY's UNC in terms of ticket availability, to lose. Go Pitt.

[UrinalCake]

I agree, I'm more interested in winning the ACC Tournament than I am in winning the mythical regular season title. And I think just being in the top 4 is huge. I don't see much difference in being seeded 1-4 in terms of likeliness of winning the ACCT.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I agree, I'm more interested in winning the ACC Tournament than I am in winning the mythical regular season title. And I think just being in the top 4 is huge. I don't see much difference in being seeded 1-4 in terms of likeliness of winning the ACCT.

Not the way the bottom half of the league has been playing. I agree with you. GaTech or Miami or NCSU might give us more of a game than some of the upper echelon teams.

[NYBri]

Personally, I'm in favor of winning out. That means an ACCT and Natty title, with a good chance at the mythical tossed in. I'd be happy with that.