2017 Australian Open

[Mal]

You can see that with the exception of 12 vs 14 majors, Djokovic has really closed the gap on Nadal. If Novak can get back to the way he's looked pre-2016 Wimbledon, it will be interesting to see what this chart looks like in a couple years.

Agreed. Your "if" re: Djokovic looks like a bigger one than I could possibly have anticipated as late as the US Open. But he just looks off lately - is he already in decline, or will he retool and become again dominant force again (it was just 8 months ago when we were talking about calendar year slams)? Or, something in between?

Murray's also turning 30 this May, and a lifelong grinder. He reached the mountaintop last fall but didn't look that good here, where he's had great success in the past. Was going down easily to Zverev just a fluke?

It's something worth thinking about because of the final we just saw. Was this the last time we see Roger and Rafa (both or either) at a slam final again? Or are they back in a sustainable way and/or others are taking a step back that lasts? Nadal just last season, while rehabbing from various nicks and nagging injuries, looked for all the world like his punishing style had irrevocably torn him apart and he'd never be the same. Federer's chugged along in a slow decline for years but, while he's remained clearly a top 6 or 7 guy, as long as Murray was improving and Novak was indomitable, it felt like he was never going to get over the hump again. But here they were, and all it took was for Murray and Djokovic to falter simultaneously. Roger took out the 4 and 5 seeds, and Rafa took out the 3. We'll see, I guess. They mentioned that Carlos Moya has convinced Rafa he can't just pound people into submission with a million groundstrokes from 5 feet behind the baseline anymore or he'll end up injured again, and soon. That's probably right, but of course that takes away what made him so great. I really liked Federer's tactic of flattening out his backhand to take away Nadal's ability to generate huge topspin/run around the backhand/recover from running around the backhand, because he doesn't have time.

Other thoughts:

- Dmitrov may finally be figuring it out; it feels like he's been a "never fulfilled the hype" guy for years, but he's only 25 now. Maybe he just didn't have a rocket ride to the top and will now get there.

- First time in forever I've been mildly excited by the prospects of young American players, with Tiafoe and Opelka and Rubin all looking like they have bright futures. Opelka in particular - he looks like Mason Plumlee out there with a ridiculous level of athleticism for a 6'11" guy. Also, seeing him play against David Goffin, who's listed at 5'11" but I'd bet $100 he's no taller than 5'9", was hilarious. Goffin had to beat Karlovic, too.

- Man, Nadal should just emulate Agassi and shave his head. That rapidly thinning hair looks terrible.

[Troublemaker]

Taylor Fritz, too, Mal.

Of course, he just became a teenage daddy, so we'll see if he can focus.

[snowdenscold]

Agreed. Your "if" re: Djokovic looks like a bigger one than I could possibly have anticipated as late as the US Open. But he just looks off lately - is he already in decline, or will he retool and become again dominant force again (it was just 8 months ago when we were talking about calendar year slams)? Or, something in between?

Murray's also turning 30 this May, and a lifelong grinder. He reached the mountaintop last fall but didn't look that good here, where he's had great success in the past. Was going down easily to Zverev just a fluke?

Had all these same questions myself - should be an intriguing 2017!

It's something worth thinking about because of the final we just saw. Was this the last time we see Roger and Rafa (both or either) at a slam final again? Or are they back in a sustainable way and/or others are taking a step back that lasts? Nadal just last season, while rehabbing from various nicks and nagging injuries, looked for all the world like his punishing style had irrevocably torn him apart and he'd never be the same. Federer's chugged along in a slow decline for years but, while he's remained clearly a top 6 or 7 guy, as long as Murray was improving and Novak was indomitable, it felt like he was never going to get over the hump again. But here they were, and all it took was for Murray and Djokovic to falter simultaneously. Roger took out the 4 and 5 seeds, and Rafa took out the 3. We'll see, I guess. They mentioned that Carlos Moya has convinced Rafa he can't just pound people into submission with a million groundstrokes from 5 feet behind the baseline anymore or he'll end up injured again, and soon. That's probably right, but of course that takes away what made him so great. I really liked Federer's tactic of flattening out his backhand to take away Nadal's ability to generate huge topspin/run around the backhand/recover from running around the backhand, because he doesn't have time.

Other thoughts:

- Dmitrov may finally be figuring it out; it feels like he's been a "never fulfilled the hype" guy for years, but he's only 25 now. Maybe he just didn't have a rocket ride to the top and will now get there.

- First time in forever I've been mildly excited by the prospects of young American players, with Tiafoe and Opelka and Rubin all looking like they have bright futures. Opelka in particular - he looks like Mason Plumlee out there with a ridiculous level of athleticism for a 6'11" guy. Also, seeing him play against David Goffin, who's listed at 5'11" but I'd bet $100 he's no taller than 5'9", was hilarious. Goffin had to beat Karlovic, too.

- Man, Nadal should just emulate Agassi and shave his head. That rapidly thinning hair looks terrible.

Agreed with almost all of this - great analysis.

I find it hard to believe both Murray and Djokovic will stumble again simultaneously in the early rounds, so I'd have to put money on a Roger/Raja final meaning at least 1 of them took out Andy/Novak, but nothing's certain anymore.

Last time we thought Dimitrov was breaking through ('14 Wimbledon), he went into a long period of mediocrity. Let's see if what he showed us vs. Nadal can be sustained, because if so, he will be a force to reckon with this season.

In regards to Opelka, when did the phrase "He moves very well for an almost 7 footer" enter the tennis lexicon ? What is going on here??

And yeah - Nadal's hair was a little uncomfortable to watch.

[Blue in the Face]

Opelka in particular - he looks like Mason Plumlee out there with a ridiculous level of athleticism for a 6'11" guy. Also, seeing him play against David Goffin, who's listed at 5'11" but I'd bet $100 he's no taller than 5'9", was hilarious. Goffin had to beat Karlovic, too.

I was at the match Karlovic played against Donald Young at the US Open last summer. Young's listed at 6'0", and while I'm sure he's taller than Goffin, he too is listed generously. It was like Ivo was playing a youth clinic. (And seeing Karlovic in person, from a baseline seat, it was most impressive to me when he was at the other end. When he's right in front of you, sure he's big, but you're up close and personal. But when he's on the other side - man, he's all the way down there and he's still that big.

[duke4ever19]

Yeah, Nadal's numbers would've been even better if he had just stayed healthy more consistently. But then again, staying healthy is part of the game, or at least part of the career in tennis. Djokovic has probably had the better career, in part because he almost never missed time due to injury. I also think peak Djokovic on slow courts is the most dominant tennis player I've seen. Same with peak Federer on fast courts.

2011 Djokovic was the best I've seen anyone ever play tennis. He went 10-1 vs. Federer and Nadal.

[Mal]

In regards to Opelka, when did the phrase "He moves very well for an almost 7 footer" enter the tennis lexicon ? What is going on here??

Good question. We're definitely in a heyday of really tall players, though. Evolution of the game, or evolution of the humans? With the prevalence of baseline play over the last 15 years feeling like it's starting to give way to a variety of styles, it doesn't surprise me that much to see larger players who would have just worn down playing a grinding baseline style having more success these days. On the other hand, I can't put my finger on any specific reason some giant couldn't have dominated Wimbledon with a serve and volley game at just about any time in history, though, like Sampras on stilts.

Anyway, Opelka has athleticism Isner can only dream of. Wouldn't it be cool to see a final 4 at Wimbledon of some combo of Isner, Anderson, Karlovic, Raonic and Opelka? The ace records would be demolished.

That's the seeds of a pretty solid NBA Development League team, too. Nadal could run point.

[CDu]

I'll admit I was sad to see Federer win over Nadal. I wanted to see Nadal get the double career slam. And I wanted to see the chase of Federer get more exciting. I think Nadal is likely now no longer a threat to end up with the most slams. Djokovic certainly still poses a threat, assuming he rebounds from his recent woes. But had it been 17, 15, 12, I think it would have made a really compelling next few years.

As is, we'll now go to the French with two new players looking for the career double slam: Federer and Djokovic. And of course Nadal will be looking for French title #10. Should be a fun year.

Congrats to Federer though. He was a deserving champion.

[duke79]

Good question. We're definitely in a heyday of really tall players, though. Evolution of the game, or evolution of the humans? With the prevalence of baseline play over the last 15 years feeling like it's starting to give way to a variety of styles, it doesn't surprise me that much to see larger players who would have just worn down playing a grinding baseline style having more success these days. On the other hand, I can't put my finger on any specific reason some giant couldn't have dominated Wimbledon with a serve and volley game at just about any time in history, though, like Sampras on stilts.

Anyway, Opelka has athleticism Isner can only dream of. Wouldn't it be cool to see a final 4 at Wimbledon of some combo of Isner, Anderson, Karlovic, Raonic and Opelka? The ace records would be demolished.

That's the seeds of a pretty solid NBA Development League team, too. Nadal could run point.

I've been predicting this for years. That we're going to see, in professional tennis (men's, at least) more and more tall (over 6'4"), strong, athletic players who will just crush the ball on the serve and ground strokes. Admittedly, none have risen to the very top YET but I'm guessing we'll see a number one player in the near future who fits this physical profile. I'm surprised we don't see more tennis balls literally being crushed by some of these players.

[Troublemaker]

We probably would've already seen it, but unfortunately, Juan Martin can't stay healthy. Delpo definitely has #1-type talent.

His injuries probably have helped the Big 4 net a few more majors than they otherwise would've.

[snowdenscold]

Nice article/interview w/ Chris Fowler about broadcasting this year's Aussie Open:
http://www.si.com/tech-media/2017/01...l-chris-fowler