2017 Australian Open

[howardlander]

It'll be history no matter who wins. #18 for Fed or a double career Grand Slam for Rafa.

I'm seeing that Nadal has opened as a slight favorite (1.2 to 1) over Fed but I don't really believe it. I understand the logic -- extra day of rest for Fed, Rafa just played 5 hours, the conditions are fast -- but still, it's really hard to pick Fed to beat Nadal here. I'd make Fed more of a 3 to 1 underdog.

The extra day of rest is an advantage for Federer, but he is almost five years older than Rafa and seemed to have some kind of leg injury in the semi. These guys are used to playing every other day, I'm not sure the long match will matter much for Nadal. History says Nadal takes him, but it's been so long since they played in a final, I'm not sure history is much of a guide here. Luckily for me, I don't bet but if I did I'd take those odds on Rafa for sure.

Howard

[Tom B.]

Oldest Finals ever!!!

It is fun seeing Nadal and Federer playing great again. Hope the Final is this good.

The men's and women's singles finals at the Australian Open are rematches of the Wimbledon finals.

From 2008.

[Blue in the Face]

Early Sunday morning at 3:30am. Yeah, you have a tough one. Stay up late Sat night, or get up early Sun morning? Or DVR it and avoid spoilers?

Has anyone ever watched the replay ESPN broadcasts of international events early the next day? Staying up (or getting up early) probably isn't going to happen, and I'm not a dvr guy. ESPN2 is re-showing it at 9am sunday morning est, and I'm wondering if they're smart enough to not have the crawl going and spoiling the result during the broadcast. Seems obvious, but, well, I don't want to underestimate their ability to show limited competence.

[DukieInKansas]

Has anyone ever watched the replay ESPN broadcasts of international events early the next day? Staying up (or getting up early) probably isn't going to happen, and I'm not a dvr guy. ESPN2 is re-showing it at 9am sunday morning est, and I'm wondering if they're smart enough to not have the crawl going and spoiling the result during the broadcast. Seems obvious, but, well, I don't want to underestimate their ability to show limited competence.

I'm going with they aren't smart enough to do that. Hope they prove me wrong. Of course, I don't trust any station not to give it away ever since CBS ran an ad about the upcoming Tour de France show by saying stay tuned to see Greg Lemond win the Tour de France (or words to that effect). Lemond won on the final stage, a time trial, by 9 seconds. Sure did take the suspense out of watching - but I did still watch. (Way before internet days.)

[Troublemaker]

Has anyone ever watched the replay ESPN broadcasts of international events early the next day? Staying up (or getting up early) probably isn't going to happen, and I'm not a dvr guy. ESPN2 is re-showing it at 9am sunday morning est, and I'm wondering if they're smart enough to not have the crawl going and spoiling the result during the broadcast. Seems obvious, but, well, I don't want to underestimate their ability to show limited competence.

I would cover up the crawler. They're not smart enough to do it for their NFL programming (highlight shows), so I doubt they'd do it for tennis.

[Troublemaker]

And Serena does win her record 23rd slam in the Open era, breaking the tie with Graf. She's looked great all tournament. Props to Venus, too, for a great run to the final.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Has anyone ever watched the replay ESPN broadcasts of international events early the next day? Staying up (or getting up early) probably isn't going to happen, and I'm not a dvr guy. ESPN2 is re-showing it at 9am sunday morning est, and I'm wondering if they're smart enough to not have the crawl going and spoiling the result during the broadcast. Seems obvious, but, well, I don't want to underestimate their ability to show limited competence.

Well, I can't imagine this EVER happening again, and since Duke plays early today, I'm going to bed early and get up and watch it.

What worries me most (as a Fed fan) is Rafa's looping, extreme, whipping, topspin crosscourt forehand that will not only jump up high to Federer's one-handed backhand, but be running away from him as well. I see a potential tactic of Roger hitting backhands down the line/drifting toward the middle, then when Rafa runs around his backhand to hit his forehand, it will leave the court open for Roger to go wide to Rafa's forehand corner. I think Rafa has to be the favorite, and more than what was posted up thread - but I've never bet on tennis, so what do I know. What little of the Rafa -Dimitrov match I did see, I honestly thought both looked much better than what Roger looked against Stan. But should be fun and entertaining tomorrow nonetheless.

And Kudos to Troublemaker for starting this thread and all that have contributed.

[Troublemaker]

Well, I can't imagine this EVER happening again, and since Duke plays early today, I'm going to bed early and get up and watch it.

What worries me most (as a Fed fan) is Rafa's looping, extreme, whipping, topspin crosscourt forehand that will not only jump up high to Federer's one-handed backhand, but be running away from him as well. I see a potential tactic of Roger hitting backhands down the line/drifting toward the middle, then when Rafa runs around his backhand to hit his forehand, it will leave the court open for Roger to go wide to Rafa's forehand corner. I think Rafa has to be the favorite, and more than what was posted up thread - but I've never bet on tennis, so what do I know. What little of the Rafa -Dimitrov match I did see, I honestly thought both looked much better than what Roger looked against Stan. But should be fun and entertaining tomorrow nonetheless.

That would be my concern as well, that Roger turns into a shank machine against Rafa's crosscourt topspin. And since sunset Melbourne time is at 8:36pm (an hour or so into the match), for that first set, the ball will really be bouncing high off the court. The great thing about ESPN announcers is that they'll actually talk about the conditions. Watch for Gilbert to make mention of how high the bounce is while the sun is a factor.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Woke at 4:00 am just in time to see Federer serve out the first set in 34 minutes. Awesome. As McEnroe said, ideal set for Fed for a quick first set apparently without a lot of grinding points. Right now Nadal has won 6 of 7 points to start the 2nd set - so things could be a changing.

[Green Wave Dukie]

The tennis has been good - though not great - so far. If Fed can limit his forehand errors I think he can take the 5th set. We'll see. His cross court backhand has really been on.

[Green Wave Dukie]

After going down a break and then not being able to cash in on like 6 break opportunities, Federer broke back and held at love. Nadal serving at 3-4. As McEnroe just said " We could be here awhile".

Best tennis of the match so far for sure.


*. Am I the only fool who got up 3 hours ago???

[Troublemaker]

Epic, epic tournament. Probably the greatest tennis tournament I've ever seen, ending in Roger beating Rafa in a 5-setter.

Very, very happy for Fed, as he's come so close to #18 several times in recent years. And the fact that he beat Rafa kind of elevates that rivalry. They can each say they've broken each other's heart.

The GOAT debate is temporarily sealed but can be unsealed later if Djokovic and Nadal continue playing well into their 30s like Federer has.

[Troublemaker]

After going down a break and then not being able to cash in on like 6 break opportunities, Federer broke back and held at love. Nadal serving at 3-4. As McEnroe just said " We could be here awhile".

Best tennis of the match so far for sure.


*. Am I the only fool who got up 3 hours ago???

I, of course, watched it, my friend. Can't miss out on history.

I would say it's true that this match wasn't sustained excellence by both men. They both kind of just weathered each other's purple patches and then capitalized when the other would dip. Roger hit a purple patch last while Rafa dipped, so Roger wins the match. Great stuff. You're right that Roger's backhand held up well; it was actually his forehand that made an unusual amount of errors in this match.

[Green Wave Dukie]

I, of course, watched it, my friend. Can't miss out on history.

I would say it's true that this match wasn't sustained excellence by both men. They both kind of just weathered each other's purple patches and then capitalized when the other would dip. Roger hit a purple patch last while Rafa dipped, so Roger wins the match. Great stuff. You're right that Roger's backhand held up well; it was actually his forehand that made an unusual amount of errors in this match.

Glad I got up. Was doubting Roger when he was down a break in the fifth; and I doubted again when he was serving for the title and down 15-40. He just gutted it out. Or, as PMac said "He out-Rafaed Rafa".

Real good match, great tournament, and fantastic drama.

Feds cross court backhand was fantastic. Amazed how seldom he sliced it. And his serve was outstanding.

[Blue in the Face]

Wow. Roger really looked in trouble after the 4th, and in major trouble after going down the break in the 5th. So impressive the way both players went through down stretches and rebounded. Very fitting finale from these guys.

[snowdenscold]

Incredible match - had to watch and DVR and I'll admit I got so nervous I had to cheat and look up the winner after the 4th set.
I was pulling for Roger, though I would have been happy to see Rafa win as well. It's just so nice to see them still competing at the highest level for GS trophies even after all these years. I really do like all of the Big 4, each in their own way, and who I root for often ends up being who I feel "needs it most" at that given time. Given his age, the 4.5 year drought and the long injury layoff, that clearly was Federer today.
(Though I didn't see the scoreline, so there was at least some suspense as to how the set played out)

Anyway, wonderful weekend of tennis!

Out of curiousity, I put together a little chart to compare accomplishments of the "Big 4" plus Stan, mostly to note the differences between him and Murray. They might both have 3 G.S. titles, but other than that, it's not even close. And I like Stan too, just wanted to point how the danger of focusing only on G.S. titles to compare careers.

Screen Shot 2017-01-30 at 10.47.33 AM.jpg

[Troublemaker]

Incredible match - had to watch and DVR and I'll admit I got so nervous I had to cheat and look up the winner after the 4th set.
I was pulling for Roger, though I would have been happy to see Rafa win as well. It's just so nice to see them still competing at the highest level for GS trophies even after all these years. I really do like all of the Big 4, each in their own way, and who I root for often ends up being who I feel "needs it most" at that given time. Given his age, the 4.5 year drought and the long injury layoff, that clearly was Federer today.
(Though I didn't see the scoreline, so there was at least some suspense as to how the set played out)

Anyway, wonderful weekend of tennis!

Out of curiousity, I put together a little chart to compare accomplishments of the "Big 4" plus Stan, mostly to note the differences between him and Murray. They might both have 3 G.S. titles, but other than that, it's not even close. And I like Stan too, just wanted to point how the danger of focusing only on G.S. titles to compare careers.

Thanks for doing that!

Yeah, the lone Masters title for Stan really jumps out. He's basically a best-of-5 specialist. Which isn't a bad thing to be, of course. Got him 3 Slams so far.

[snowdenscold]

Thanks for doing that!

Yeah, the lone Masters title for Stan really jumps out. He's basically a best-of-5 specialist. Which isn't a bad thing to be, of course. Got him 3 Slams so far.

What's really crazy is not only he 3 for 3 in grand slam finals, but all 3 of his trophies came against the World #1 at the time!


Also realized I should have added a couple rows to my sheet - I'll update when I get a chance: Weeks at #1, Year End #1's, World Tour Finals champ.

[snowdenscold]

Updated chart. First in bold, second in underline.

Screen Shot 2017-01-30 at 2.07.20 PM.jpg


You can see that with the exception of 12 vs 14 majors, Djokovic has really closed the gap on Nadal. If Novak can get back to the way he's looked pre-2016 Wimbledon, it will be interesting to see what this chart looks like in a couple years.

[Troublemaker]

Updated chart. First in bold, second in underline.


You can see that with the exception of 12 vs 14 majors, Djokovic has really closed the gap on Nadal. If Novak can get back to the way he's looked pre-2016 Wimbledon, it will be interesting to see what this chart looks like in a couple years.

Yeah, Nadal's numbers would've been even better if he had just stayed healthy more consistently. But then again, staying healthy is part of the game, or at least part of the career in tennis. Djokovic has probably had the better career, in part because he almost never missed time due to injury. I also think peak Djokovic on slow courts is the most dominant tennis player I've seen. Same with peak Federer on fast courts.