NCAA. Not negative - how many wins to make the tournament ?

[gofurman]

Not chicken little. Just a question. A few people have been negative so I'll bite... Ok, for fun, how many wins does Duke need to make the NCAA? A fun exercise. Kind of. Lol

I'd say we are in the NCAA EASY at 9-9 in the ACC. A lock. At 14-4 now (2-3) then 9-9 conference finish leaves us at 21-10. Duke easily gets in at 21-10. Easy. Maybe at 20-11. Which is 8-10 in the ACC. Now some depends on who you beat (good to have quality wins) and who you lost to (bad losses hurt more)

We already have varying level quality wins over Florida, Rhode Island and MSU. Those are good to very good.

Losses to VT (without Grayson), top 10 Kansas by 2, FSU by 16 (top 20 team), and Louisville by 9 (top 15 team). Not sure how long they will excuse it but these last two losses are without Amile. If Amile returns and we look better then they do put an asterisk beside the early losses


Thoughts?? Interested in your opinions. I don't see anyway they don't take a 20 win Duke team. Especially considering the acc is super hard this year.

[gofurman]

A little more. If we lose at home - right now UNC and FSU look probable, any could happen... Any! It's a nasty league this year. The easiest possible on road are Wake, Cuse, Miami in my opinion where we could grab an extra. Look, I am not saying the sky is falling. Just an exercise to calm the craziness on off week (which I think is a good time for off week)


Want to say the ACC is super tough this year and that does help us some. But also ANY game is tough on the road. Any and all. Unc escaped Clemson in ot and Wake. As someone else posted, almost no one is winning on the road games

[Devilwin]

Considering how tough the league is, 20, 21 should get us there. But we need the wins first...

[OldPhiKap]

My guess is that all ACC teams that finish .500 or better in the league are in; a game below is a sweat; and below that may be NIT bound or done.

[CDu]

A 9-9 ACC mark will get us in for sure.

There is very little reason to worry we won't get in.

[ricks68]

If this is not negativity, then what is? I suggest we wait until the results of the next few games until weighing in on this. Then we can think about adding a new Swamp Quitmore monument to our Mount Hatemore monument.😝😨

ricks

[mattman91]

its over.

[gofurman]

If this is not negativity, then what is? I suggest we wait until the results of the next few games until weighing in on this. Then we can think about adding a new Swamp Quitmore monument to our Mount Hatemore monument.😝😨

ricks

Not negative. I had seen a few posts indicating 'we better worry about making the tourney' or some such. Chicken little. I was trying to be reasonable and show all Duke has to do is go 9-9 in acc and they are a lock for NCAA. That's all. Nothing more.

On the other hand, every acc game without Amile is going to be tough. He means that much. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost at Wake without him. Unc escaped at wake. So did Clemson

[Wander]

If we get Jefferson back healthy, we'll be fine. Calm your nerves, we'll be a lock with no bad losses and good enough wins (and yes, 9-9 will definitely get us in).

The concern is more about seeding. Even if we do put it all together and go on a run, we may have to get to the Final Four as a 4 seed.

[CDu]

If we get Jefferson back healthy, we'll be fine. Calm your nerves, we'll be a lock with no bad losses and good enough wins (and yes, 9-9 will definitely get us in).

The concern is more about seeding. Even if we do put it all together and go on a run, we may have to get to the Final Four as a 4 seed.

Spot on.

[uh_no]

If this is not negativity, then what is? I suggest we wait until the results of the next few games until weighing in on this. Then we can think about adding a new Swamp Quitmore monument to our Mount Hatemore monument.😝😨

ricks

given that KP currently projects us at 10-8 in conference...and that's WITH amile for much of the weight, then I hardly think the discussion of finishing <.500 in conference is unwarranted. If the team continues to play as they have, we very well could be looking at the bubble.

In short there are a wide range of possibilities.

side 1...all these are reasonable possibilities
amile's career is over
harry gets reinjured, or is otherwise ineffective
none of the other big men come around
tatum continues to black hole
we don't make adjustments on defense

If all those things happen, we could reasonably miss the tournament.

side 2...also all reasonable
amile is back next week
harry becomes more and more confident and can stay out on the floor longer, and plays up to the talent he has
bolden starts providing useful minutes
jayson becomes more selective, meaning fewer low-efficiency posessions
the defense gels just a little bit...as we saw hints of against FSU early

If all those things happen, we're looking at a possible ACC title and deep run

Reality will almost assuredly be somewhere in between...but there is no harm in discussing the gamut of possibilities in an objective manner, which is what's going on here.

[brevity]

If this is not negativity, then what is?

Every postgame thread?

As I understand it, the concern here can be translated as "A bunch of fans are freaking out, and a bunch of fans think we'll be fine. I don't think I should worry just yet, but in NCAA Tournament bubble terms, at what point should I worry?"

That's not a bad question. So far the answer has been laid out in terms of Duke's regular season record, which is fine, but can be a long wait. I think you can reasonably worry in an earlier timeframe if we lose multiple home games (to anybody) or multiple road games (to teams that are clearly lower-tier).

This week, for example, was not a worrisome week with regards to Duke's tournament chances. Two road losses to Top 15 teams that will likely end up in the upper half of the regular season hierarchy. There are legitimate worries: freshman development, team chemistry, defense, the Grayson-adjacent noise. But none of that threatens the whole season. You may predict that it does, and you eventually may be right, but saying it now serves little purpose and satisfies no one.

I deliberately left off injuries to Amile Jefferson and Coach K, which are the only factors out there that really could make or break the season. It's not really worth speculating on either, as any information is made available to us when the principals desire it, and no sooner.

[ipatent]

The top forty-some in the Pomeroy rankings will get in, and Duke is eleventh right now.

[YmoBeThere]

Five wins at most. The ACC Tourney winner is still an automatic qualifier.

[UrinalCake]

I think it depends WHEN those wins happen. If we lose our next six games but then K comes back and everyone gets healthy and we win the next seven after that, putting us at 9-9, then we're looking pretty good. I think the NCAA would factor in all of those injuries including K's and look at how we're playing more recently. They wouldn't totally ignore the first 3/4 of the season, but they would take it into account.

OTOH if we play pretty much the same for the rest of the season, beat the lower teams but lose to all of the top teams, and we still wind up at 9-9 and lose in the first round of the ACCT, then we could definitely get left out. Right now our best win is probably Florida. I haven't done the math to see how the rest of the schedule would shake out, but if that ends up being our best win for the season then that's not much.

[gofurman]

Every postgame thread?

As I understand it, the concern here can be translated as "A bunch of fans are freaking out, and a bunch of fans think we'll be fine. I don't think I should worry just yet, but in NCAA Tournament bubble terms, at what point should I worry?"

That's not a bad question. So far the answer has been laid out in terms of Duke's regular season record, which is fine, but can be a long wait. I think you can reasonably worry in an earlier timeframe if we lose multiple home games (to anybody) or multiple road games (to teams that are clearly lower-tier).

This week, for example, was not a worrisome week with regards to Duke's tournament chances. Two road losses to Top 15 teams that will likely end up in the upper half of the regular season hierarchy. There are legitimate worries: freshman development, team chemistry, defense, the Grayson-adjacent noise. But none of that threatens the whole season. You may predict that it does, and you eventually may be right, but saying it now serves little purpose and satisfies no one.

I deliberately left off injuries to Amile Jefferson and Coach K, which are the only factors out there that really could make or break the season. It's not really worth speculating on either, as any information is made available to us when the principals desire it, and no sooner.

exactly. It's just a reasonable / objective question. Nothing more. Something of interest on a site where I often see 30 pages debating a possible high school kid's decision - a guy who may never turn out to be good or suit Up for us... And, as uh_no pointed out, it is possible that Amile never returns. If that is the case we are in for some tough tough games even at home. Look at the second half of BC. That's our one example of not having Amile at home. BC outplayed us that half. BC ! Worst team in the conference possibly

But I sincerely hope Amile returns and we win the national title. Absolutely ! I was just looking at the schedule (literally going game by game) and saw similar things to uh_no. It's completely wide open at this point from final four to no tourney.

[westwall]

[IF]the defense gels just a little bit...as we saw hints of against FSU early

Did you mean "against Louisville early"?? I thought the "hints" were much more evident in that game.

[uh_no]

Did you mean "against Louisville early"?? I thought the "hints" were much more evident in that game.

yes yes. good catch.

[jipops]

I'm predicting we go 8-5 the rest of the way. That would put us at 22-9. We're in with that. The seed would be pretty bad though. It would not be a first round game to look forward to.

[gofurman]

I'm predicting we go 8-5 the rest of the way. That would put us at 22-9. We're in with that. The seed would be pretty bad though. It would not be a first round game to look forward to.

A 22-9 Duke team would probably be a 6 seed? Right now we are kenpom number 11. 8-5 the rest of the way probably makes us ranked twenty fith or so?