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  1. #1
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    Feb 2007
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    MBB: Duke vs Louisville Pre-Game and In-Game Thread (noon, ESPN)

    Okay, we've had about 20 hours of self flagellation over the FSU game. It's probably time to move on to starting thinking about the next game.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Okay, we've had about 20 hours of self flagellation over the FSU game. It's probably time to move on to starting thinking about the next game.
    I'm hoping more flagellation isn't in order after the next one, but...
    I'm assuming that Louisville isn't quite as good this year as FSU, so maybe the outcome will be better. I dunno. Not very confident right now.

  3. #3
    If there's any game to use a lot of zone in... this is it. Have you see their shooting? yuck. Capel should be spending the next couple days practicing that zone and getting guys good at finding a body when a shot goes up. If you play solid zone defense, the only way you lose this game is if you get murdered on the glass and give up a ton of stickbacks. (ok, there's also the chance that a couple of their guys have out-of-body shooting nights, but if that's the case you probably lose no matter what kind of defense you play).

    Your offense is more than good enough to win, the defense and control of the defensive glass will tell the tale.

    edited to add this:
    Feel like Pitino's teams have been poor at shooting and playing halfcourt offense in recent seasons, probably why we've owned them. The packline (or a good zone) forces them to shoot jumpers. Limit transition, pack it in, and don't give up offensive boards. That's Louisville kryptonite.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    Charlotte, North Carolina
    Assuming Grayson is playing after bonking his head in the FSU game, I am breathlessly awaiting what the official ESPN Grayson Allen Super Slow-Mo Analysis Team finds for us. Will Grayson appear to touch an opponent with is toe? Nudge a cheerleader on an out-of-bounds play? Blow a booger out of his nose on someone? Will his shorts ripple with flatus in the direction of Rick Pitino?

    This might end up becoming a good ESPN drinking game...

  5. #5
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    Feb 2007
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    Brooklet, GA
    I've watched every televised Duke game for 25+ years when at all possible. I'm going to skip this one. I simply can't deal with ESPN's hard hitting, in-game reporting and Grayson cam extravaganza. Just can't do it. Will they have one or two sideline reporters? Have they found elementary school footage that shows Grayson tripping little Tommy Wilson while playing kickball at recess? ESPN doesn't get my eyeballs this weekend. Y'all hold it down and I'll catch you in the post game.

    Sorry to be negative, but when it's no longer enjoyable, what's the point? Damn shame.

  6. #6
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    Winston’Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    Assuming Grayson is playing after bonking his head in the FSU game, I am breathlessly awaiting what the official ESPN Grayson Allen Super Slow-Mo Analysis Team finds for us. Will Grayson appear to touch an opponent with is toe? Nudge a cheerleader on an out-of-bounds play? Blow a booger out of his nose on someone? Will his shorts ripple with flatus in the direction of Rick Pitino?

    This might end up becoming a good ESPN drinking game...
    He is going to slam hiis face into some poor Louisville player's elbow. Like last year.
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  7. #7
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Okay, so we just got through our toughest game to date. The reward? We get a similarly-tough matchup against Louisville. Yay.

    There are some similarities between Louisville and FSU. Both teams are long and athletic, both teams employ a center by committee approach, and both teams play a relatively deep bench. But there are some differences. For one thing, the Cardinals don't shoot well, whereas FSU can shoot it. Another is that Louisville is a much bigger user of the press, and more willing to play zone than FSU.

    Up front, Louisville primarily rotates between Anas Mahmoud (7'0", 215lb junior from Egypt) and Mangok Mathiang (6'10", 230lb senior from Australia). Mahmoud is the silkier player, with a bit of an offensive game. Mathiang is a bit more rugged and less polished offensively. The two combine for about 11 ppg, 10 rpg, and 4 bpg and 5.5 fpg in 39 mpg. Mathiang is the better rebounder, Mahmoud the better shotblocker. Neither is really a go-to presence on offense and get most of their buckets off the backs of their guards and putbacks. In case of emergency, they'll throw Matz Stockman (7'0", 240lb junior from Norway) in there. Stockman is the least skilled but most rugged of the trio. But he plays very sparingly.

    At the forward, Johnson (6'9", 230lb junior) and Spalding (6'10", 215lb sophomore) eat up the minutes at PF. They combine for 15 ppg and 12.5 rpg in about 39.5 mpg. Both are long and athletic and aggressive in the paint. Neither is much of a shooter, but shots are easier to make from 0-2 feet. And they get a lot of those.

    On the wings, the Cardinals have a trio of talented slashers. Mitchell (6'3", 200lb sophomore), Adel (6'7", 200lb sophomore from Australia), and King (6'6", 190lb freshman) can score. Mitchell and King were both top-30 recruits in their classes, and both are good athletes. Adel wasn't rated out of high school, but the Cardinals are very high on his potential. He's stepped into more of a starring role this year (behind leading scorer Mitchell). Mitchell and Adel are both very inconsistent as shooters but both are explosive athletes and can get to the rim. King is a little less explosive, but has the highest 3pt % on the team by far. But it is on a very low number of attempts (8 of 19). He didn't come to college with the reputation as a shooter, but so far he's exhibiting it (80.6% from the line).

    The PG spot is manned primarily by Quentin Snider (6'2", 175lb junior). Snider shot really well last year, but that hasn't carried over to this year. As a PG, he is more of a caretaker than a playmaker. Behind him is senior transfer Tony Hicks (6'1", 175lb senior from UPenn). Hicks is sort of like Snider in that he isn't a playmaking PG but can score a little.

    Lack of shooting and lack of a PG have been Louisville's biggest weaknesses the past couple of years, and this year appears to be more of the same. The Cardinals really stagnate in the half-court offense. A good zone can make them look like a joke offensively. UVa brought their pack line approach (which is closer to a compact zone than extended man-to-man) and walloped the Cardinals in Louisville too. The zone was a key to us giving the Cards a beatdown last year. And I'd suggest that trying to play extended man-to-man defense against them is a recipe for trouble. Louisville has the size and athleticism to punish us on the glass, and we really want them shooting jumpers rather than getting into the paint.

    But one of the main ways Louisville scores is via turnovers. They press a lot, and they can go on extended runs by forcing turnovers with that pressure. They are a terrible half-court team offensively, but they mask that with a frenetic full-court defense that gets them easy buckets.

    If we do get them in the half court game, they will be very physical, and they will contest everything around the basket. But they can be had in the half-court defensively.

    Needless to say, though, getting back on defense is going to be critical. We want to make Louisville a half-court team. They are not very impressive at all in a half-court game.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    Assuming Grayson is playing after bonking his head in the FSU game, I am breathlessly awaiting what the official ESPN Grayson Allen Super Slow-Mo Analysis Team finds for us. Will Grayson appear to touch an opponent with is toe? Nudge a cheerleader on an out-of-bounds play? Blow a booger out of his nose on someone? Will his shorts ripple with flatus in the direction of Rick Pitino?

    This might end up becoming a good ESPN drinking game...
    And heaven forbid he "waves his private parts at their aunties."

    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by davekay1971 View Post
    Assuming Grayson is playing after bonking his head in the FSU game, I am breathlessly awaiting what the official ESPN Grayson Allen Super Slow-Mo Analysis Team finds for us. Will Grayson appear to touch an opponent with is toe? Nudge a cheerleader on an out-of-bounds play? Blow a booger out of his nose on someone? Will his shorts ripple with flatus in the direction of Rick Pitino?

    This might end up becoming a good ESPN drinking game...
    I like Tripping William's response.
    Quote Originally Posted by jacone21 View Post
    I've watched every televised Duke game for 25+ years when at all possible. I'm going to skip this one. I simply can't deal with ESPN's hard hitting, in-game reporting and Grayson cam extravaganza. Just can't do it. Will they have one or two sideline reporters? Have they found elementary school footage that shows Grayson tripping little Tommy Wilson while playing kickball at recess? ESPN doesn't get my eyeballs this weekend. Y'all hold it down and I'll catch you in the post game.

    Sorry to be negative, but when it's no longer enjoyable, what's the point? Damn shame.
    Tommy is still pretty upset about that, though he , of course, was never in any risk of getting injured.
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    He is going to slam hiis face into some poor Louisville player's elbow. Like last year.
    That was the first thing I thought as well.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
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    Colorado
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Okay, so we just got through our toughest game to date. The reward? We get a similarly-tough matchup against Louisville. Yay.

    There are some similarities between Louisville and FSU. Both teams are long and athletic, both teams employ a center by committee approach, and both teams play a relatively deep bench. But there are some differences. For one thing, the Cardinals don't shoot well, whereas FSU can shoot it. Another is that Louisville is a much bigger user of the press, and more willing to play zone than FSU.

    Up front, Louisville primarily rotates between Anas Mahmoud (7'0", 215lb junior from Egypt) and Mangok Mathiang (6'10", 230lb senior from Australia). Mahmoud is the silkier player, with a bit of an offensive game. Mathiang is a bit more rugged and less polished offensively. The two combine for about 11 ppg, 10 rpg, and 4 bpg and 5.5 fpg in 39 mpg. Mathiang is the better rebounder, Mahmoud the better shotblocker. Neither is really a go-to presence on offense and get most of their buckets off the backs of their guards and putbacks. In case of emergency, they'll throw Matz Stockman (7'0", 240lb junior from Norway) in there. Stockman is the least skilled but most rugged of the trio. But he plays very sparingly.

    At the forward, Johnson (6'9", 230lb junior) and Spalding (6'10", 215lb sophomore) eat up the minutes at PF. They combine for 15 ppg and 12.5 rpg in about 39.5 mpg. Both are long and athletic and aggressive in the paint. Neither is much of a shooter, but shots are easier to make from 0-2 feet. And they get a lot of those.

    On the wings, the Cardinals have a trio of talented slashers. Mitchell (6'3", 200lb sophomore), Adel (6'7", 200lb sophomore from Australia), and King (6'6", 190lb freshman) can score. Mitchell and King were both top-30 recruits in their classes, and both are good athletes. Adel wasn't rated out of high school, but the Cardinals are very high on his potential. He's stepped into more of a starring role this year (behind leading scorer Mitchell). Mitchell and Adel are both very inconsistent as shooters but both are explosive athletes and can get to the rim. King is a little less explosive, but has the highest 3pt % on the team by far. But it is on a very low number of attempts (8 of 19). He didn't come to college with the reputation as a shooter, but so far he's exhibiting it (80.6% from the line).

    The PG spot is manned primarily by Quentin Snider (6'2", 175lb junior). Snider shot really well last year, but that hasn't carried over to this year. As a PG, he is more of a caretaker than a playmaker. Behind him is senior transfer Tony Hicks (6'1", 175lb senior from UPenn). Hicks is sort of like Snider in that he isn't a playmaking PG but can score a little.

    Lack of shooting and lack of a PG have been Louisville's biggest weaknesses the past couple of years, and this year appears to be more of the same. The Cardinals really stagnate in the half-court offense. A good zone can make them look like a joke offensively. UVa brought their pack line approach (which is closer to a compact zone than extended man-to-man) and walloped the Cardinals in Louisville too. The zone was a key to us giving the Cards a beatdown last year. And I'd suggest that trying to play extended man-to-man defense against them is a recipe for trouble. Louisville has the size and athleticism to punish us on the glass, and we really want them shooting jumpers rather than getting into the paint.

    But one of the main ways Louisville scores is via turnovers. They press a lot, and they can go on extended runs by forcing turnovers with that pressure. They are a terrible half-court team offensively, but they mask that with a frenetic full-court defense that gets them easy buckets.

    If we do get them in the half court game, they will be very physical, and they will contest everything around the basket. But they can be had in the half-court defensively.

    Needless to say, though, getting back on defense is going to be critical. We want to make Louisville a half-court team. They are not very impressive at all in a half-court game.
    I was working on my analysis but you said it better. I agree.

    I'm going to the game. One of my friends has kept his Louisville season tickets for 25+ years despite practicing law in Denver. We made the trip two years ago and I still remember a point in the game where I thought the Louisville defensive pressure would turn the game. Tyus Jones, of course, handled it.

    Go Duke!

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Last night was rough, but we played pretty well before the roof caved in. I'm still optimistic that this team will continue to improve and be a strong unit come March and April.

    -I think it is clear to everybody, especially after last night, that Grayson needs to be the PG and setting up the offense. This will be a really, really good test for him doing just that. He forced a couple of outside shots last night, he needs to work on finding his outside shot within the rhythm of the offense.
    -I always like playing teams that can't shoot. Here is hoping that we take care of the ball and don't create easy offense for Louisville.
    -Curious to see how Tatum reacts to last night. It seemed like we tried to play through him in the second half and the results were awful. He had a couple of humbling moments at the rim and trying to force passes that weren't there.
    -Jeter was one of the bright spots last night. I would like to see him to continue to get minutes, but someone between him and Bolden is probably going to have to sit.
    -I'm hoping the defense can improve. I'm assuming we will see some sort of zone like we have done with them in the past.
    -Most importantly, this team needs a big road win. I think can could do a lot to bring these guys closer together.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA

    Optimist

    The best way to fight all the negative press is to win and let haters fume about it.

    Embrace the hate, play aggressively, if there are "gray" areas who cares. The folks on this site will have your back.

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    I don't think we can re-create 2015 by surprising Louisville with a zone. We should play man because the Cardinals are a team we should be able to defend in man. They play 2 bigs who can't shoot, which will allow us to have more help around the basket. Continue to get those man2man reps in.

    On the offensive end, Jayson will need to take advantage of a big man guarding him. Make good decisions. Pass when he forces help.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    On the wings, the Cardinals have a trio of talented slashers. Mitchell (6'3", 200lb sophomore), Adel (6'7", 200lb sophomore from Australia), and King (6'6", 190lb freshman) can score. Mitchell and King were both top-30 recruits in their classes, and both are good athletes. Adel wasn't rated out of high school, but the Cardinals are very high on his potential.
    Not sure where are you are looking, but Adel was rated out of prep school in Bradenton, Fla. -- he was the No. 37 prospect in ESPN's 2015 rankings and as high as No. 23 by Scout. He was No. 34 nationally in the RSCI -- just a little behind Mitchell (No. 27 in the 2015 RSCI) and King (No. 25 in the 2016 RSCI)

    Otherwise, a fine analysis.

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I don't think we can re-create 2015 by surprising Louisville with a zone. We should play man because the Cardinals are a team we should be able to defend in man. They play 2 bigs who can't shoot, which will allow us to have more help around the basket. Continue to get those man2man reps in.

    On the offensive end, Jayson will need to take advantage of a big man guarding him. Make good decisions. Pass when he forces help.
    They want you to help off of those bigs. Their best offense is to draw your bigs away from their men, throw up an awful shot, and leave their big guys in good position for an offensive rebound and an easy stickback. If you want to play man and succeed, you've got to be able to stop penetration off the bounce, and if help is needed, it needs to get there before they get into/near the paint. Don't let them reach the lane off the dribble or you're toast. Their offensive efficiency is 47th, and probably 90% of that is due to a VERY good OR% and easy buckets they get from turnovers and in transition.

    You only have to do 3 things to win:
    1) Make them play a halfcourt game. Be patient offensively, don't turn it over, & GET BACK on defense
    2) Keep them out of the paint and make them shoot jumpers
    3) Keep them off the offensive glass

    You do all three, and you win going away. Probably by double digits.

  16. #16
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    They want you to help off of those bigs. Their best offense is to draw your bigs away from their men, throw up an awful shot, and leave their big guys in good position for an offensive rebound and an easy stickback. If you want to play man and succeed, you've got to be able to stop penetration off the bounce, and if help is needed, it needs to get there before they get into/near the paint. Don't let them reach the lane off the dribble or you're toast. Their offensive efficiency is 47th, and probably 90% of that is due to a VERY good OR% and easy buckets they get from turnovers and in transition.

    You only have to do 3 things to win:
    1) Make them play a halfcourt game. Be patient offensively, don't turn it over, & GET BACK on defense
    2) Keep them out of the paint and make them shoot jumpers
    3) Keep them off the offensive glass

    You do all three, and you win going away. Probably by double digits.
    I mostly agree. Defensive rebounding will be key, and that will sometimes mean that a wing has to rotate over to cover for a big man that is helping.

    I think you may have a warped sense of how easy it is to beat the Cardinals because UVA has owned them. For other teams, we shouldn't expect to be Lville by double-digits. On the road.

    That said, Duke did play them very well twice last season. We could've / should've had a sweep but I think Derryck Thornton, who was playing well in the 2nd game, went down with an injury and Louisville made a run. Pretty sure we played mostly m2m against them last year. The two Lville games were part of Duke's hot streak when we played top-5 ball for a few games.

  17. #17
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    They want you to help off of those bigs. Their best offense is to draw your bigs away from their men, throw up an awful shot, and leave their big guys in good position for an offensive rebound and an easy stickback. If you want to play man and succeed, you've got to be able to stop penetration off the bounce, and if help is needed, it needs to get there before they get into/near the paint. Don't let them reach the lane off the dribble or you're toast. Their offensive efficiency is 47th, and probably 90% of that is due to a VERY good OR% and easy buckets they get from turnovers and in transition.

    You only have to do 3 things to win:
    1) Make them play a halfcourt game. Be patient offensively, don't turn it over, & GET BACK on defense
    2) Keep them out of the paint and make them shoot jumpers
    3) Keep them off the offensive glass

    You do all three, and you win going away. Probably by double digits.
    All of this is dead-on... but easier said than done. Especially with a young team like ours.

    You guys have a veteran team with an organized defense and very reliable ballhandlers. Thus, doing the things you said is easy. When you struggle to defend dribble penetration, it gets much harder to defend Louisville.

    It is so hard to predict how the game will turn out, because Louisville is so mercurial and inconsistent. If we do the things you've said sufficiently, we will win. But, that is easier said than done.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    All of this is dead-on... but easier said than done. Especially with a young team like ours.

    You guys have a veteran team with an organized defense and very reliable ballhandlers. Thus, doing the things you said is easy. When you struggle to defend dribble penetration, it gets much harder to defend Louisville.

    It is so hard to predict how the game will turn out, because Louisville is so mercurial and inconsistent. If we do the things you've said sufficiently, we will win. But, that is easier said than done.
    Yeah, I didn't mean to make it sound like it was easy to do those things. If it was, everyone would do it and Louisville would be terrible. You have to control the things you can control. Capel should spend the next couple of days beating it into their heads: be patient/slow down and make it a halfcourt grind, value the ball, work for a good shot. Get back, close off driving lanes (if that means going zone, so be it), send everybody to the defensive glass. It's not easy to do, of course, but I feel like the roadmap to beating Louisville is clearer-cut (and easier to execute) than it is vs other top-tier teams who don't rely as heavily on very specific areas of the game to be successful (turnovers, transition, and offensive rebounds).

    Even if you guys can't routinely stop penetration, if you can just clean up the defensive glass, limit turnovers, and play a halfcourt grind, I still think you win.

  19. #19
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Wahoo2000 View Post
    If there's any game to use a lot of zone in... this is it. Have you see their shooting? yuck.
    With six minutes to go in 1st half, Louisville is 4-6 on 3 PT FGs against Pitt.
    Bob Green

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    With six minutes to go in 1st half, Louisville is 4-6 on 3 PT FGs against Pitt.
    That is, needless to say, anomalous. But it bodes well for our game!

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