MBB: Duke at FSU (1/10, 8:00pm, ACCN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[uh_no]

1) Can we watch on ESPN3 in the triangle?
2) Amile?
3) if amile doesn't play, will we do better than the showing after he went out vs BC?

FSU is a REALLY good team. KP 20, coming off a road win vs UVA and home vs VT (who you might recall whupped us...)

[CDu]

FSU is GOOD this year. Interestingly, though, they aren't your typical FSU squad. Yes, they do have a pair of guys over 7-feet tall, but this year's team largely plays small. Ojo (7'1", 290) plays about 15 mpg. Koumadje (7'4", 235) plays about 10 mpg. The dup combines for about 9 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.5 bpg, and 4 fouls/game in 25 mpg. They are tall, but not overly skilled. Jarquez Smith (6'9", 225) plays the rest of the minutes. He is active and athletic, but not very skilled.

Where this team differs from past FSU squads is that they play smaller and more spread out. I already mentioned that Smith gets about 15 mpg as an undersized C. The PF spot is manned by frosh Jonathan Isaac, a 6'10", 210lb (not a typo) do-it-all combo forward. Isaac shoots 3s (35.7%), leads the team in rebounding, and is second in steals and blocks. He is long, lean, athletic, and pretty darn good. His backup is Cofer (6'8", 205), who is basically minutes-filler. Sometimes Cofer slides to C when FSU goes really small.

Where FSU excels is on the wings. Bacon is the star. A 6'7" athlete who is all forward, he returned as a soph after a great freshman year to prove he can shoot. So far, so good. Bacon leads the team in scoring and shoots 37% on 3s. He will be a handful snd then some. Alongside him is Terance Mann, a 6'6" wing who doesn't shoot well but is athletic and does the dirty work (4.8 rpg). Angola-Rodas and Savoy also play, and both can shoot it.

The primary ballhandlers are Rathan- Mayes (6'4", 190) and Forrest (6'5", 210). Rathan-Mayes came to FSU as a scorer, but like Allen has taken on more of a distributor role with more talent around him. But make no mistake, he can still light it up. He has won games for them almost single-handedly. Forrest is a talented frosh who is big, athletic, physical, not much of a shooter, but leads the team in steals.

These Noles just don't play like the Noles of yore. They play up-tempo, and are very good offensively. Conversely, they aren't the defensive juggernaut like usual. They are actually fun to watch.

Their pace of play makes me nervous. We have not played good transition D (especially when the freshman bigs play) and FSU can go get it. If Jefferson is out, FSU could put a hurting on us. They are especially tough at home, but they have also already beaten UVa on the road. They have a variety of scoring weapons, and they have great athleticism. We may need to play small, as their "4" can abuse a big on the perimeter. We may have to play Tatum exclusively at the 4 so as to handle their spread offense.

It is going to be a tough, tough game.

[uh_no]

It is going to be a tough, tough game.

That's especially true given how much trouble we had with our last wing heavy team: VT. I'm very very worried about this game if Amile is unavailable....Luke showed he is not always up to the task (though I hope he was sick or SOMETHING last night), and Matt, though fortuantely has found some of his shot again, has not been the best on the other end.

Tatum is our only real wing....and unless we can afford to go really small (tatum at 5), we may have a really really tough time defending these guys.

I hate to say I don't think Duke will win, but I have a hard time figuring out how duke wins this game unless absolutely everything goes right on the offensive end.

[DukieInBrasil]

1) Can we watch on ESPN3 in the triangle?
2) Amile?
3) if amile doesn't play, will we do better than the showing after he went out vs BC?

FSU is a REALLY good team. KP 20, coming off a road win vs UVA and home vs VT (who you might recall whupped us...)

We didn't have Grayson vs. VaTech, so that took the wind out of our offense. Not having Amile will take the wind out of our defense as we saw vs. BoCo. Does the offense provided by Grayson outweigh the defense (and offense) of Amile? I don't like that trade-off personally.
Will FSU's size give us too many problems? Will Duke look to go small with Tatum at the 4 and cycle 4 guys between 3 spots (AG, MJ, FJ and LK)? Will Jeter or DeLaurier be available? If Capel commits to going small, will Jack White play if there's foul trouble among the 4 guards? Are the matchups of Ojo vs Bolden or Giles vs Isaac good for Duke to exploit? Since most of FSU's strengths lie in the backcourt, will our backcourt win that matchup?
Looks like FSU has NINE guys who can reasonably be expected to take and make 3s, although none of the guys who play in every, or most, games shoots better than 39% from 3. Duke has 2 guys shooting at or above 40% from 3, 2 more shooting 33% or better and Tatum, who hasn't shot all that many 3s yet, at 28%. FSU shoots 3s at a marginally better rate than Duke, 37.5 vs 37.0%. Seems like a lot will depend on who get the most from their 3pt shooting. Overall, Duke's 3pt shooting has been on the upswing the last 2 games, shooting better than the season average in both.
I think offensive rebounding for Duke will be important in this one. FSU doesn't play their experienced big man, Ojo, all that much, and deservedly so, the dude's a stiff. Huge, but a stiff, and only averages 5ppg. I expect Bolden to come in any time Ojo is in. I expect Giles to match up against J Isaac whenever possible. It remains to be seen what Duke might do vs 7'4 Koumadje, but he only averages 4/2 p/rpg anyway.
FSU has a lot of tall players, with 10 guys 6'6 or taller, and Duke is pretty tall, with only 1 player listed at 6'3 and 8 guys 6'6 or taller, 3 of whom might not be available though.
Hopefully, Duke's skill will overcome their depth.

[Troublemaker]

3) if amile doesn't play, will we do better than the showing after he went out vs BC?

Definitely. Against BC, we didn't get a chance to gameplan or practice for Amile's absence. Plus, the players were probably a little shellshocked from yet another injury, to a beloved captain, in the same foot that knocked him out for the season last year. One of the reasons why Amile came out of the locker room was probably just to attempt to calm the team down.

So yeah, we'll be better prepared and at a higher level for Amile's absence on Tuesday, but that doesn't mean Duke is going to beat Florida St. This is a road game against a very good ACC team.

CDu - excellent preview.

[Troublemaker]

We may need to play small, as their "4" can abuse a big on the perimeter. We may have to play Tatum exclusively at the 4 so as to handle their spread offense.

Will Duke look to go small with Tatum at the 4 and cycle 4 guys between 3 spots (AG, MJ, FJ and LK)? Will Jeter or DeLaurier be available? If Capel commits to going small, will Jack White play if there's foul trouble among the 4 guards?

I consider Tatum at the 4 to be a near-lock.

At their current level of play and conditioning, I'm just hoping Harry and Marques can combine for 40 minutes at center, probably with some spot minutes from Chase if he's available.

Even if Amile were healthy, we were probably going to play small a good amount to match up with Isaac. But now with Amile out, we'll see Jayson almost exclusively at the 4.

[CDu]

We didn't have Grayson vs. VaTech, so that took the wind out of our offense. Not having Amile will take the wind out of our defense as we saw vs. BoCo. Does the offense provided by Grayson outweigh the defense (and offense) of Amile? I don't like that trade-off personally.
Will FSU's size give us too many problems? Will Duke look to go small with Tatum at the 4 and cycle 4 guys between 3 spots (AG, MJ, FJ and LK)? Will Jeter or DeLaurier be available? If Capel commits to going small, will Jack White play if there's foul trouble among the 4 guards? Are the matchups of Ojo vs Bolden or Giles vs Isaac good for Duke to exploit? Since most of FSU's strengths lie in the backcourt, will our backcourt win that matchup?
Looks like FSU has NINE guys who can reasonably be expected to take and make 3s, although none of the guys who play in every, or most, games shoots better than 39% from 3. Duke has 2 guys shooting at or above 40% from 3, 2 more shooting 33% or better and Tatum, who hasn't shot all that many 3s yet, at 28%. FSU shoots 3s at a marginally better rate than Duke, 37.5 vs 37.0%. Seems like a lot will depend on who get the most from their 3pt shooting. Overall, Duke's 3pt shooting has been on the upswing the last 2 games, shooting better than the season average in both.
I think offensive rebounding for Duke will be important in this one. FSU doesn't play their experienced big man, Ojo, all that much, and deservedly so, the dude's a stiff. Huge, but a stiff, and only averages 5ppg. I expect Bolden to come in any time Ojo is in. I expect Giles to match up against J Isaac whenever possible. It remains to be seen what Duke might do vs 7'4 Koumadje, but he only averages 4/2 p/rpg anyway.
FSU has a lot of tall players, with 10 guys 6'6 or taller, and Duke is pretty tall, with only 1 player listed at 6'3 and 8 guys 6'6 or taller, 3 of whom might not be available though.
Hopefully, Duke's skill will overcome their depth.

I don't think Giles will play on Isaac much at all, except if caught on switches. Isaac is 6'10", but he is more perimeter-oriented. It just isn't a good matchup for Giles. I think Tatum and Jones will share the assignment of Isaac.

Ojo just isn't good, so I wouldn't worry about which center is guarding him. Any of Giles, Jeter (if available), Bolden, or Vrankovic would do fine defending Ojo. FSU doesn't run any real offense through him anyway. Koumadje is springy and long snd can catch alley-oops, but he is rail-thin. Like Ojo, they don't dump it to him in the post. The important thing in defending either is to not lose track of them off-ball around the basket. Their offense comes almost exclusively off drive-and-dish, alley-oops, and putbacks.

[Furniture]

Definitely. Against BC, we didn't get a chance to gameplan or practice for Amile's absence. Plus, the players were probably a little shellshocked from yet another injury, to a beloved captain, in the same foot that knocked him out for the season last year. One of the reasons why Amile came out of the locker room was probably just to attempt to calm the team down.

So yeah, we'll be better prepared and at a higher level for Amile's absence on Tuesday, but that doesn't mean Duke is going to beat Florida St. This is a road game against a very good ACC team.

CDu - excellent preview.

I agree with this and that could be a good observation about why Amile came back out although I also hope that it was because his injury just isn't that bad. Let's not forget that we should see more improvement from Harry and Marquis too.

[gofurman]

I agree with this and that could be a good observation about why Amile came back out although I also hope that it was because his injury just isn't that bad. Let's not forget that we should see more improvement from Harry and Marquis too.

Three things I want. In order


Good news about Amile. .. Improvement by Harry and Bolden. ... A win

I would easily take a loss to hear good news about Amile. Hope this is A chance for Harry to improve. This will be a game that I would actually be surprised if Duke won. I just don't see us winning without Amile. You all saw our second half v bc. Hopefully Tuesday is better but it's a lot to ask of Harry in his sixth game or whatever to get those rotations right. I fear a lot of open layups.

[jipops]

I was hoping we got our seasonal blowout over with after the VTech game. Now with Amile likely being out, that may not be the case. Seems probable that FSU will put a hurtin' on us at their place. I just don't see how we can defend these guys. Except for Tatum, we're largely void of a defensive presence in the front court now. Giles and Bolden are a long ways away from being effective in that dept. And as was mentioned up thread, we haven't shown much of an ability to defend teams that get out in transition. I fear this game may be reminiscent of that Miami game in '13 in Coral Gables when Ryan Kelly was out with his foot injury. But if it is, we'll learn from it and move on. If not, then it's a big bonus win without Amile.

[ipatent]

FSU is better than VA Tech, and their bigs will be a real test if Jefferson is out.

[Edouble]

I was hoping we got our seasonal blowout over with after the VTech game. Now with Amile likely being out, that may not be the case. Seems probable that FSU will put a hurtin' on us at their place. I just don't see how we can defend these guys. Except for Tatum, we're largely void of a defensive presence in the front court now. Giles and Bolden are a long ways away from being effective in that dept. And as was mentioned up thread, we haven't shown much of an ability to defend teams that get out in transition. I fear this game may be reminiscent of that Miami game in '13 in Coral Gables when Ryan Kelly was out with his foot injury. But if it is, we'll learn from it and move on. If not, then it's a big bonus win without Amile.

Putting the ball in the basket will go a long way towards solving this problem. The lineup of Grayson, Luke, Frank/Matt (whose shot has returned), Jayson, and Harry is a pretty potent offensive lineup.

[Furniture]

Putting the ball in the basket will go a long way towards solving this problem. The lineup of Grayson, Luke, Frank/Matt (whose shot has returned), Jayson, and Harry is a pretty potent offensive lineup.

In the spirit of optimism here is an interesting stat.

Assists last 2 games: 44
Assists previous 2 games: 15
That = new PG

[moonpie23]

harry and jayson are jonsing for this opportunity...they're both (bolden as well) looking to live up to the hype. With Amile out, and Grayson singed by the microscope, look for the frosh to ratchet up the reason they came to duke...


i may have to eat these words later, but i'm thinking these guys are coming to prove something...

[uh_no]

Putting the ball in the basket will go a long way towards solving this problem. The lineup of Grayson, Luke, Frank/Matt (whose shot has returned), Jayson, and Harry is a pretty potent offensive lineup.

I was going to spout something about how the offense wasn't that good last night, especially in the half court, especially when Amile was out...but

the two lineups you point out were +8 in 14:33 last night...given, it should be better given how bad BC is, BUT it could be worse.

That said, At some point Jayson will need a sit down...and replacing Jayson with the other guard in that lineup resulted in -5 in 3:36. Pulling Grayson was a -2 in :40.

Those numbers are of course, very limited, and harry is getting better, and they haven't played without amile yet...there are a ton of factors...but not having amile leaves us (again) with precious little wiggle room...Giles, Jayson, Kennard, and Grayson would pretty much have to play the whole game.

[jipops]

Putting the ball in the basket will go a long way towards solving this problem. The lineup of Grayson, Luke, Frank/Matt (whose shot has returned), Jayson, and Harry is a pretty potent offensive lineup.

Offense is not so much of what I'm worried about. We can still score 75 or 80 points and lose by a decent margin.

[CDu]

FSU is better than VA Tech, and their bigs will be a real test if Jefferson is out.

FSU's bigs are not the threat. Their guards and wings and their ability to score in transition are the threat. If FSU wants to try to beat us inside, that plays as advantage Duke.

[DukieInBrasil]

Offense is not so much of what I'm worried about. We can still score 75 or 80 points and lose by a decent margin.

I would suspect that scoring 75 or 80 would be tantamount to losing for this squad w/o Amile.
I agree that i am not nearly as worried about the offense as withe defense.

[Troublemaker]

FSU's bigs are not the threat. Their guards and wings and their ability to score in transition are the threat. If FSU wants to try to beat us inside, that plays as advantage Duke.

Yep, agreed. If we can see Michael Ojo posting up anyone -- even if it's, say, Matt Jones on a switch -- that's a win for Duke.

Flipping it to the other side of the court, though, FSU's bigs probably ARE a nice test to try to score around. They're becoming a good Leonard Hamilton team (which he hasn't built in a few years) that holds down the opponent's 2-pt percentage with their size.

[Saratoga2]

I am hoping that Luke will show up in this game and be more aggressive. For whatever reason, Luke seemed to disappear offensively in the last game after the first few minutes and actually did a similar thing in parts of the game prior to that. His defense was also not as solid. He switches well but was driven past at will. Has he been ill or is having a reaction to the return of Grayson? We need him to return to what he has been doing for the majority of the season.