Baseball Hall of Fame - 2017

[JasonEvans]

Good article here summing up the HOF ballots that have been made public so far and guessing at who is going to get in. It appears Bagwell, Raines, and probably Pudge are going to make it... perhaps Vlad too. But, the real shocker is that the poster boys for steroids (Bonds and Clemens) are gaining a lot of strength:

Both are polling at 71.1 percent, huge leaps from how they finished last year. (Clemens at 45.2 percent; Bonds at 44.3 percent.) Even if you factor in losses similar to their drops between polling and voting last year (Clemens -5.5 percent; Bonds -6.9 percent), they’ll be incredibly close—right around 65 percent. Only two men have ever gotten more than 50 percent and not eventually made it in.

The BBWAA as a whole appears to have finally come around on Bonds and Clemens, likely because the membership has changed drastically. Last year the Hall of Fame announced new rules that takes the vote away from older, inactive BBWAA members who haven’t covered the sport in more than a decade. That change, plus the growing acceptance of the steroid era for what it was—an important, pervasive, unignorable sea change in the game, without which the history of the sport can’t accurately be told—means that Bonds and Clemens, each with five more years on the ballot after this one, are Cooperstown-bound. Just not yet.

-Jason "I'm not sure how I feel about this... except to note that if you are going to give Bonds and Clemens a pass and put them into the Hall, how can you not put McGuire and Sosa in too?" Evans

[chris13]

Good article here summing up the HOF ballots that have been made public so far and guessing at who is going to get in. It appears Bagwell, Raines, and probably Pudge are going to make it... perhaps Vlad too. But, the real shocker is that the poster boys for steroids (Bonds and Clemens) are gaining a lot of strength:



-Jason "I'm not sure how I feel about this... except to note that if you are going to give Bonds and Clemens a pass and put them into the Hall, how can you not put McGuire and Sosa in too?" Evans

Bagwell (who was unfairly tainted with steroids accusations) and Raines should be in. Honestly, so should Bonds and Clemens (and ARod, when the time comes). I feel like MLB looked the other way on steriods during the late 90s in a reaction to the fallout from the 1994 lockout. Also, as Jim Bouton, told us in Ball Four, plenty of 60s and 70s era players took amphetamines, which were also illegal. I know this is a minority opinion, but I would not penalize any player from the steriod era for HoF eligibility.

based on the numbers, Bonds and Clemens are way better players than McGwire and Sosa. Their numbers are HoF worthy, not sure if that is true of McGwire or Sosa.

[Olympic Fan]

Bagwell (who was unfairly tainted with steroids accusations) and Raines should be in. Honestly, so should Bonds and Clemens (and ARod, when the time comes). I feel like MLB looked the other way on steriods during the late 90s in a reaction to the fallout from the 1994 lockout. Also, as Jim Bouton, told us in Ball Four, plenty of 60s and 70s era players took amphetamines, which were also illegal. I know this is a minority opinion, but I would not penalize any player from the steriod era for HoF eligibility.

based on the numbers, Bonds and Clemens are way better players than McGwire and Sosa. Their numbers are HoF worthy, not sure if that is true of McGwire or Sosa.

Barry Bonds is one of the three best hitters in baseball history (after Ruth and Williams, right there and maybe a bit ahead of Gehrig). Clemens is one of the five best pitchers in the modern era (I haven't had time to break down Martinez, Maddox, Seaver, Johnson and Clemens, but he's in that mix).

Clearly, they have the numbers to be first-ballot HOFs.

BUT THEY TOOK PERFORMANCE ENHANCING DRUGS

Putting them in the Hall would cheapen every record, every accomplishment that we honor. Lance Armstrong dominated cycling for a decade. He's the greatest ever right? So what if he cheated?

I have no sympathy for the cheaters -- whether we're talking about Lance Armstrong, UNC basketball, Marion Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Barry Bonds or David Ortiz (amazing how the media adoration for the aging slugger left out his PED roots).

I'll be disappointed and dismayed if the voters let them in.

[elvis14]

I really hope Bonds and Clemons get it (and McGuire and Sosa). Sorry, I don't feel the need to cry 'cheaters' when MLB knew 100% what was going on and ignored it to make games more exciting and make more $$$. Bonds is the best hitter I've ever seen. Clemons won 78 Cy Young awards. McGuire and Sosa saved baseball with that epic chase. And while you're at it, put #14, Pete Rose, in as well, he's given his pound of flesh.

[Indoor66]

I really hope Bonds and Clemons get it (and McGuire and Sosa). Sorry, I don't feel the need to cry 'cheaters' when MLB knew 100% what was going on and ignored it to make games more exciting and make more $$$. Bonds is the best hitter I've ever seen. Clemons won 78 Cy Young awards. McGuire and Sosa saved baseball with that epic chase. And while you're at it, put #14, Pete Rose, in as well, he's given his pound of flesh.

I wholeheartedly agree. They probably will not. Baseball is full of childish hypocrites.

[cspan37421]

Clemons won 78 Cy Young awards.

Sounds like a record unlikely to be broken.

[Olympic Fan]

I guess we just have a philosophical disagreement that can't be solved.

Frankly, I don't understand the attitude that cheating doesn't matter.

It's true that the baseball establishment turned a blind eye to PED use for a long time. But that's how the establishment always acts (and not just baseball). The cheating scandal that exploded with the Black Sox in 1919 (actually the scandal didn't break until 1920) was the result of more than a decade of gambling and game-fixing that was widely known, but ignored. Go back and read about Hal Chase and his dishonorable career -- how such luminaries as Ban Johnson and John McGraw covered up his crimes.

That disgraceful behavior doesn't mean that the nine Black Sox shouldn't have been punished for throwing the series.

And baseball's lethargy in confronting the steroid/PED issue doesn't mean we should forgive the cheaters.

Bonds, Clemens, McGuire and Sosa are scum who should not be honored by the HOF ... just as Joe Jackson, Lance Armstrong, Pete Rose, Marion Jones and the UNC basketball program are scum who have subverted sports.

You want to honor Bonds and Clemens? Do you also want to forgive Lance Armstrong? Do you want to drop the investigation into UNC's cheating?

Where do you want to draw the line? Do you even want a line at all?

Obviously, we're not going to agree on this issue. I suspect that sooner or later, people who think like you will prevail and the cheaters will be honored. But that will be a sad day for baseball.

[CDu]

Barry Bonds is one of the three best hitters in baseball history (after Ruth and Williams, right there and maybe a bit ahead of Gehrig). Clemens is one of the five best pitchers in the modern era (I haven't had time to break down Martinez, Maddox, Seaver, Johnson and Clemens, but he's in that mix).

Clearly, they have the numbers to be first-ballot HOFs.

BUT THEY TOOK PERFORMANCE ENHANCING DRUGS

Putting them in the Hall would cheapen every record, every accomplishment that we honor. Lance Armstrong dominated cycling for a decade. He's the greatest ever right? So what if he cheated?

I have no sympathy for the cheaters -- whether we're talking about Lance Armstrong, UNC basketball, Marion Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Barry Bonds or David Ortiz (amazing how the media adoration for the aging slugger left out his PED roots).

I'll be disappointed and dismayed if the voters let them in.

Except Shoeless Joe Jackson didn't cheat. He may or may not have been involved in the gambling scandal, but he didn't cheat. His stats were legitimately earned. And it is not like his performance in that World Series suggests he was throwing the series.

[OldPhiKap]

Barry Bonds is one of the three best hitters in baseball history (after Ruth and Williams, right there and maybe a bit ahead of Gehrig). Clemens is one of the five best pitchers in the modern era (I haven't had time to break down Martinez, Maddox, Seaver, Johnson and Clemens, but he's in that mix).

Clearly, they have the numbers to be first-ballot HOFs.

BUT THEY TOOK PERFORMANCE ENHANCING DRUGS

Putting them in the Hall would cheapen every record, every accomplishment that we honor. Lance Armstrong dominated cycling for a decade. He's the greatest ever right? So what if he cheated?

I have no sympathy for the cheaters -- whether we're talking about Lance Armstrong, UNC basketball, Marion Jones, Shoeless Joe Jackson, Barry Bonds or David Ortiz (amazing how the media adoration for the aging slugger left out his PED roots).

I'll be disappointed and dismayed if the voters let them in.

Yup. Lance Armstrong has the most impressive results of any TdF competitor ever. By a large margin. But he deserves to rot without any recognition.

Shoeless Joe didn't cheat but likely knew it was going on. I would have no problem with him in the Hall. And if you are ever in Spartanburg I really recommend the Shoeless Joe museum, next to the minor league park.

[Olympic Fan]

Yup. Lance Armstrong has the most impressive results of any TdF competitor ever. By a large margin. But he deserves to rot without any recognition.

Shoeless Joe didn't cheat but likely knew it was going on. I would have no problem with him in the Hall. And if you are ever in Spartanburg I really recommend the Shoeless Joe museum, next to the minor league park.

You are confusing Jackson with Buck Weaver, who sat in on the meeting where first baseman Chick Gandil laid out the scheme. Weaver told his teammates that he would not participate, but he didn't tell his manager or owner about the fix and for that he was banned for life.

Jackson agreed to throw the series and, in fact, received $1,500 (somewhat less than he was promised) from the gamblers for his services. Did he do anything to actually throw the games? That point is in dispute -- but Hugh Fullerton (the writer who essentially broke the scandal) and Christy Mathewson, who were covering the series together looking for shenanigans, cited three suspicious outfield plays by Jackson in the first two games. He also hit poorly in the games they were trying to lose (1,2, 4 and 5) -- 4 for 16 with 1 run and 0 RBIs, but hit VERY well in the games the Black Sox were trying to win (3,6,7 ... in game 8, pitcher Lefty Williams was tanking, but nobody else) -- 8 for 16 with 4 runs and 6 RBIs.

It's not really a disputed fact that Jackson 1) agreed to throw the series and 2) took money for it.

There is debate as to whether he actually underperformed at any point, but I think the evidence is that he did.

I would have a big problem with Jackson going into the Hall of Fame.

(Note: the whole issue -- which few understand -- is that the Black Sox did not try and throw EVERY game. After throwing the first two games, the rumors of the fix were so widespread that the bookies could not lay off any bets. So the Sox tried to win Game 3. After that, they threw 4 and 5, but when they didn't get paid what they were promised by the gamblers, they tried to win games 6-7-8 (it was a best of 9-game series that year). They won games 6 and 7, but in Game 8, starter Lefty Williams single-handedly threw the game (the rumors was that his wife's life was threatened).

[FadedTackyShirt]

Lifelong Giants fan who loved Bobby Bonds, but could never understand the adoration Barry received in SF. Very gifted player and an incredible hitter, but a surly a-hole who didn't run out ground balls and was lackadaisical in the field late in his career. Despite that, he consistently received standing ovations in China Basin. Incredibly disciplined hitter, who would only see one or two hittable pitches per game and inevitably pounced on them more often than not.

Barry, Clemens, and ARod were HOF quality players before PEDs, but they still opted to cheat. McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro weren't HOF players without PEDs.

Saw Junior Griffey at his first or second Spring Training. He was incredibly skinny at 18 or 19 and never bulked up. Barry looked similar early in his career.

Was listening to SF sports talk radio one night during the height of the Dot Com Era. Giants utility OF Marvin Bernard was complaining bitterly about being booed regularly by home fans. Even in Silicon Valley, not many people make $3M annually and very few who do are crappy at their jobs. Was no surprise that Bernard was later cited for using PEDs.

Don't think you penalize great players for being bad guys, but you also shouldn't honor and reward them for breaking the rules. Fully expect Bonds, Clemens, and ARod to be in the HOF at some point, but won't be supportive or approving.

[Avvocato]

I guess we just have a philosophical disagreement that can't be solved.

Frankly, I don't understand the attitude that cheating doesn't matter.

It's true that the baseball establishment turned a blind eye to PED use for a long time. But that's how the establishment always acts (and not just baseball). The cheating scandal that exploded with the Black Sox in 1919 (actually the scandal didn't break until 1920) was the result of more than a decade of gambling and game-fixing that was widely known, but ignored. Go back and read about Hal Chase and his dishonorable career -- how such luminaries as Ban Johnson and John McGraw covered up his crimes.

That disgraceful behavior doesn't mean that the nine Black Sox shouldn't have been punished for throwing the series.

And baseball's lethargy in confronting the steroid/PED issue doesn't mean we should forgive the cheaters.

Bonds, Clemens, McGuire and Sosa are scum who should not be honored by the HOF ... just as Joe Jackson, Lance Armstrong, Pete Rose, Marion Jones and the UNC basketball program are scum who have subverted sports.

You want to honor Bonds and Clemens? Do you also want to forgive Lance Armstrong? Do you want to drop the investigation into UNC's cheating?

Where do you want to draw the line? Do you even want a line at all?

Obviously, we're not going to agree on this issue. I suspect that sooner or later, people who think like you will prevail and the cheaters will be honored. But that will be a sad day for baseball.

I am 100% in this category. Guys like Bonds, Clemens and the others get to keep the millions they made during their career. They have kept their records (which I still hate but admit that it's hard to cherry pick what stands and what should go, so am okay with that as of now - I just ignore them). But there is nothing that says they must be honored with the hall of fame. That was their trade off. To me, they sacrificed their hall eligibility when they cheated. I think the Lance Armstrong example is a great one. I also acknowledge that I think the winds are blowing towards letting some of these cheaters in, and I am disappointed by this. It's also why the baseball hall of fame, like its records, means less and less to me as time goes by. That's a shame, because growing up baseball stats and the hall had more meaning than any other sport.

[JasonEvans]

Barry, Clemens, and ARod were HOF quality players before PEDs, but they still opted to cheat. McGwire, Sosa, and Palmeiro weren't HOF players without PEDs.

Was McGwire not on a HOF course before he started PEDing? I dunno.

Obviously, one of the questions we have to answer is when did he start taking drugs? The best bet is probably 1996. He was a consistent big, but not mammoth, homerun hitter prior to that. He banged 49 in his rookie year in 1987 (and no one thinks he was on roids then, he was actually pretty slim at that point). For the next 5 years he was an annual all-star and consistently hit 30-40 dingers, which is very nice. Had he continued at that pace into his 30s, which seems reasonable, he likely ends his career with 500+ homers which is the traditional metric for a homerun hitter (before steroids made normal numbers seem tiny).

In 1993 and 94, he missed 2 key seasons to injuries and only played 70 games in those two years. He may have started on the juice after that in an effort to get him back on the field. Many folks say the major impact of drugs is to keep you healthier and enable quicker recovery. In 1995, he hit 39 homers in 104 games, which is a bit of a faster pace than we had seen from him in the past, but not anything crazy. It is 1996 where his numbers start to jump. He hit 52 dingers that year and 58 the next.

[DU82]

Of the 35 players on the ballot, I believe reasonable arguments can be made for 19 of them. (The full list is below, and I’ve starred the 19.)

*Jeff Bagwell, Casey Blake, *Barry Bonds, Pat Burrell, Orlando Cabrera, Mike Cameron, *Roger Clemens, J.D. Drew, *Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Guillén, *Trevor Hoffman, *Jeff Kent, Derrek Lee, *Edgar Martínez, *Fred McGriff, Melvin Mora, *Mike Mussina, Magglio Ordóñez, *Jorge Posada, *Tim Raines, *Manny Ramirez, Edgar Rentería, Arthur Rhodes, *Iván Rodríguez, Freddy Sanchez, *Curt Schilling, *Gary Sheffield, *Lee Smith, *Sammy Sosa, Matt Stairs, Jason Varitek, *Billy Wagner, Tim Wakefield, *Larry Walker.

Looking at this by position and WAR:

The best players at each position by WAR would be (separating starters and relievers): Clemens, Hoffman, Rodriguez, Bagwell, Kent, Martinez (putting him at third instead of DH), Renteria, Bonds, Cameron and Walker.

I don’t see Renteria or Cameron as HoF worthy, so substitute the next two on WAR, Mussina and Schilling. Because of PEDs, most will drop Clemens and Bonds (and Ramirez and Scheffield), and substitute Raines and Guerrero as the next on the WAR list. (I'd advance Raines over Schilling anyway mainly because it's his last year on the ballot and he is a very worthy candidate.)

You can drop Hoffman if you don’t like closers who don’t play much (and their WAR reflects that) and bring in McGriff as the tenth on the list.

(edit to add source of WAR and other stats: http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2017.shtml )

[Blue in the Face]

Good article here summing up the HOF ballots that have been made public so far and guessing at who is going to get in. It appears Bagwell, Raines, and probably Pudge are going to make it... perhaps Vlad too. But, the real shocker is that the poster boys for steroids (Bonds and Clemens) are gaining a lot of strength:

In past years early revealed votes were generous compared to the population as a whole, so I think Vlad's level doesn't bode too well for his chances this year. For context, this article from 12/23 last year had Piazza at 91.6% (of course he made it, but with 83%), Bagwell with 83% (he wound up below 72%) and Raines at 80% (he wound up just below 70%). Bond and Clemens were both above where they ended up, but only about 5%. (This article was earlier in the votes than what you've posted though, so yours is a more indicative sample).

As for McGwire and Sosa, I don't think it's inconsistent to put in Clemens and Bonds but not them. As others have posted, they were not just hall of fame caliber performers, they were historically elite. Sosa was clearly not. His career HR total is obviously phenomenal. But he was a wholly unexceptional player until 1998, when presumably he started using. And even with his steroid use, his career numbers, other than HR's, are unexceptional. I don't think it's unreasonable to vote for PED players, but also try to make some kind of adjustment to consider how good they were without the PED's. If you wipe out a bunch of Sosa's HR's, he had a very long, very good career. Not a hall of fame career, or even close to one.

McGwire is a much tougher case. Prior to 1998 he was vastly superior to Sosa. Sosa played a lot longer beyond that point, but McGwire continued to perform at a greater level during those years, and was a much better career hitter, albeit with meaningfully fewer games. But it's harder to pinpoint when he started using. He's acknowledged using since very early in his career, though as far as I know he's never gone into detail as to how regularly. I could see a voter assuming his entire career was basically fake, and not voting for him. If I was going to consider voting for PED players I think I would vote for him, but I can understand not doing so. At any rate, he's off the ballot, so...

I've always assumed the ped guys wouldn't get in, but I've heard some people speculating that now that Selig is in, voters figure the whole issue is now off the table for the hall of fame, so it's ok to vote for these guys. We'll see.

[luvdahops]

Was McGwire not on a HOF course before he started PEDing? I dunno.

Obviously, one of the questions we have to answer is when did he start taking drugs? The best bet is probably 1996. He was a consistent big, but not mammoth, homerun hitter prior to that. He banged 49 in his rookie year in 1987 (and no one thinks he was on roids then, he was actually pretty slim at that point). For the next 5 years he was an annual all-star and consistently hit 30-40 dingers, which is very nice. Had he continued at that pace into his 30s, which seems reasonable, he likely ends his career with 500+ homers which is the traditional metric for a homerun hitter (before steroids made normal numbers seem tiny).

In 1993 and 94, he missed 2 key seasons to injuries and only played 70 games in those two years. He may have started on the juice after that in an effort to get him back on the field. Many folks say the major impact of drugs is to keep you healthier and enable quicker recovery. In 1995, he hit 39 homers in 104 games, which is a bit of a faster pace than we had seen from him in the past, but not anything crazy. It is 1996 where his numbers start to jump. He hit 52 dingers that year and 58 the next.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/12/sp...anted=all&_r=0

They NYT story linked above says, based on McGwire's own statements, that he began regularly using after the 1993 season. If you look at his career up to that point and after, the contrast is pretty stark:

Up to 1993
943 games (so equivalent of 6 full seasons), slash line of .249/.359/.509/.868, OPS+ of ~142, 229 HR (38 per year), 632 RBI (105)

1994-2001
931 games (also equivalent to 6 full seasons), slash line of .277/.429/.674/1.103, OPS+ of ~185, 354 HR (59), 782 RBI (130)

Full career
1874 games (equivalent of 12 full seasons), slash line of .263/.394/.588/.982, OPS+ of 163, 583 HR (49), 1414 RBI (118)

The up to 1993 numbers are still very good in most respects, but not by themselves Hall-worthy in my view. Especially when you consider that McGwire was a below average defensive player and baserunner even before bulking up. And while McGwire did make the A-S game 6 times thru 1993, in only 3 of those years did he have a WAR of 5+, generally considered the A-S threshold under today's metrics.

Also, FWIW Jason, McGwire's 39 HRs in 104 games in 1995 equate to 61 over 162 games, a pace that represented a sharp upward deviation from even his previous best (49 in 151 games as a rookie).

[Olympic Fan]

It's an interesting theoretical debate -- was McGwire a HOF quality player without the PEDs?

I say theoretical because from my point of view it doesn't matter. Yes, Bonds and Clemens and A-Roid were clearly Hall of Fame quality before they started to cheat. So what? Shoeless Joe Jackson was clearly a Hall of Fame player before he took money to throw the 1919 World Series. Pete Rose was clearly a HOF player before he was proven to have bet on baseball as the Reds manager.

None of them deserve election.

The official HOF selection criteria states:

5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

I contend that no matter how good any of the cheaters are or would have been without cheating, they did not meet the standards of "integrity, sportsmanship, character" that are required for election.

[rasputin]

It's an interesting theoretical debate -- was McGwire a HOF quality player without the PEDs?

I say theoretical because from my point of view it doesn't matter. Yes, Bonds and Clemens and A-Roid were clearly Hall of Fame quality before they started to cheat. So what? Shoeless Joe Jackson was clearly a Hall of Fame player before he took money to throw the 1919 World Series. Pete Rose was clearly a HOF player before he was proven to have bet on baseball as the Reds manager.

None of them deserve election.

The official HOF selection criteria states:

5. Voting: Voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.

I contend that no matter how good any of the cheaters are or would have been without cheating, they did not meet the standards of "integrity, sportsmanship, character" that are required for election.

Agreed, about none of them deserving election.

I think McGwire was clearly NOT a HOF player without the PED's. He was, for most of his career, a guy who hit a lot of HR's and drew a lot of walks, and did nothing else well. There were years when his OBP was much higher, because he was hitting for average in those years, as well as with power. But there were years when his OBP was really low, like in 1991 (when his BA was .201 and his other numbers were low too, leading to an OPS+ of 103). He played well in '92 (4th in MVP voting), but then missed most of 1993 injured (and only played in 47 games in the strike-shortened 1994 season). He went back to being an All-Star beginning in 1995, obviously using steroids by this time.

[elvis14]

It's an interesting theoretical debate -- was McGwire a HOF quality player without the PEDs?

Was McGwire a HOF quality player if he's not facing pitchers day in day out that are taking PEDs? Did he start taking the PEDs to even the playing field or did he just get pulled in by Jose Conseco?

[Olympic Fan]

Was McGwire a HOF quality player if he's not facing pitchers day in day out that are taking PEDs? Did he start taking the PEDs to even the playing field or did he just get pulled in by Jose Conseco?

I think that's a gross exaggeration ...

I know it's one of the mantras of the apologists that "everybody" was doing PEDs in that era. That's just not true.

When all players were tested in for the Mitchell Report, just 89 (of about 800 players tested) tested positive.

So there were a lot of cheaters, but not near "everybody" and not near a majority.

The great majority of cleam players deserved a level playing field. And the cheaters who denied it to them deserved every bit of scorn we can heap on them.