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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    About 150 feet in front of the Duke Chapel doors.

    MBB: Duke vs. Florida (Tue, 12/6, 9:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

    Duke makes their annual December trip to New York City to play Florida. Put your pre-game and in-game thoughts here.
    JBDuke

    Andre Dawkins: “People ask me if I can still shoot, and I ask them if they can still breathe. That’s kind of the same thing.”

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    "drain the swamp"

    LGD!!!
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA

    So...

    ...what makes FL dangerous? They aren't a good 3pt shooting team (31.5% on the season. Only one player shoots better than 35%). They have one player who can rebound (John Egbundu, at 7.5pt per game). No player scorers more than 13ppg (3 do score more than 10ppg, though).

    Sounds like these boys like defense (#8, kenpom). But is that it?

    Not saying Duke will win, but Duke just looks so much better. And now, with big boy Marques in the middle, our biggest issues (defense and stopping penetration) are severely helped.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Inman, SC & Fort Myers, FL
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    "drain the swamp"

    LGD!!!
    Looks as though Alabama drained about half of it on Saturday, we just need to finish the job!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtr View Post
    Looks as though Alabama drained about half of it on Saturday, we just need to finish the job!
    The scary thing is -- Alabama can play a whole lot better than they did too.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    ...what makes FL dangerous? They aren't a good 3pt shooting team (31.5% on the season. Only one player shoots better than 35%). They have one player who can rebound (John Egbundu, at 7.5pt per game). No player scorers more than 13ppg (3 do score more than 10ppg, though).

    Sounds like these boys like defense (#8, kenpom). But is that it?

    Not saying Duke will win, but Duke just looks so much better. And now, with big boy Marques in the middle, our biggest issues (defense and stopping penetration) are severely helped.
    They don't particularly shoot well from 2 either (44%). Decent FT shooting team though (76%). I haven't seen them play but like you said it sounds like defense and an attacking offense. Hopefully Bolden is able to go, so we can see how having a rim protector will look.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Two things that I know make them dangerous:

    1. They are playing Duke on a big stage. We will get their best shot.
    2. We are still working in two players, and have an uncertain line-up.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  8. #8

    Minutes

    So glad to see Tatum and Bolden playing again. Not only excited to see these guys continue to integrate into the team, but fascinated to see how Coach K manages the team and playing time. Florida is for real and certainly has ability to beat Duke tomorrow so I think we will see Coach K overall plan for the team begin to crystalize. While Coach K does plant seeds (see Allen 2015), generally he puts the most talented players on the floor (with limited match up tweaks).

    I assume the starting point is the line-up and rotations we saw for MSU, URI, KU and even PSU games. To recap, Jeter averaged 14 minutes in those games (6 to 26 min) and rest of bench (Vrank, DeLaurier) less than 4 min. I think it's safe to assume Jeter is as far as we'll go and expect his minutes will decrease pretty much in line with Bolden's increase. Can Bolden play 10 minutes? 20? Sure this will depend on match-ups but will be surprised to see Bolden play 20 and completely leave Jeter on the bench. That said, can't see Jeter playing more than 10 minutes. Combined, see them playing 20-25 minutes - to some extent time capped by Tatum time at 4 - see below.

    More interesting is Tatum. Sat was easy. He played 20 minutes and his playing time was seemingly impacted by his cramp which seemed to happen early in 2nd half and him seating resulted in those odd late 2nd half line-ups (Jefferson as PG). Where do his minutes come from against FL and going forward? For Florida, Saturday's injuries suggest they will come from Jackson and Allen but also think rotations will give us a hint of the future. I like Jackson but feel like it's got to come from him (absent select match-ups). I expect Allen will ready to go for a game at garden against top 20 team which is also his home state school. How much will Coach K limit Allen's minutes in such a game? I can't see K sitting Allen, Kennard or Jones in any meaningful way - so where do Tatum's minutes come from? Tatum at the 4? Probably for a bit but that's not going to be enough - IMO. I've wondered all fall how rotations will go and excited to finally start to see.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Florida lost to Gonzaga by 5 and beat Miami by 9. I didn't see either game but after looking at the boxes it looks like they stayed in the game against the Zags by creating TOs (18). FL was 2-19 from 3 in that game, got out rebounded, and only lost by 5. The Zags also shot 52% from 2 and 44% from 3, so that is impressive to only lose by 5. FL only had 9 assists to 8 TOs, smells like a lot of ISO. They sound like a scrappy team.

    In the 9 point victory over Miami, Florida forced 13 TOs and held Miami to a poor shooting day (38% from 2, 29% from 3, and 67% FT [good ft defense]). While Florida got out rebounded again by 4 and only had 11 assists to 9 TOs, they did block 11 shots (they blocked 6 against the Zags). Again, it sounds like a swarming defense and ISO on offense.

    It should be a good test for the Duke team. I like the odds if Duke matches their energy and keeps the TOs down. And on defense, prevent easy baskets, make them earn it.

  10. #10
    Florida is coached by Michael White, who is the son of Duke's athletic director Kevin White.

    I've seen parts of Florida games the past two seasons, and Michael is super intense on the sidelines. I haven't watched any interviews to see if there's a contrast there, but on the sidelines, he's like a young Frank Martin from KSU. Eyeballs bulgingly intense.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Delaware
    One thing not mentioned that Florida has done well so far this year is getting to the foul line. I saw it mentioned that they shoot well once they get there, but just as notable is that they get there often. They averaged 10.5 more foul shots than their opponent in the Miami and Gonzaga games. Also in the rebounding department, while they don't have someone who grabs a lot of rebounds by volume, both the team and Egbunu are top 50 in the country in OR%, so keeping them off the offensive glass will be important.
    Last edited by SCMatt33; 12-05-2016 at 10:08 AM. Reason: Spelling
       

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Macon, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by whereinthehellami View Post
    Florida lost to Gonzaga by 5 and beat Miami by 9. I didn't see either game but after looking at the boxes it looks like they stayed in the game against the Zags by creating TOs (18). FL was 2-19 from 3 in that game, got out rebounded, and only lost by 5. The Zags also shot 52% from 2 and 44% from 3, so that is impressive to only lose by 5. FL only had 9 assists to 8 TOs, smells like a lot of ISO. They sound like a scrappy team.

    In the 9 point victory over Miami, Florida forced 13 TOs and held Miami to a poor shooting day (38% from 2, 29% from 3, and 67% FT [good ft defense]). While Florida got out rebounded again by 4 and only had 11 assists to 9 TOs, they did block 11 shots (they blocked 6 against the Zags). Again, it sounds like a swarming defense and ISO on offense.

    It should be a good test for the Duke team. I like the odds if Duke matches their energy and keeps the TOs down. And on defense, prevent easy baskets, make them earn it.
    Yea looking at their numbers on Kenpom they are 14th in the country at forcing turnovers, (about 25% of possessions) and eighth in the country at blocking shots. Looks like their attempts at shot blocking give up a lot of offensive rebounds though which Amile and Marques would have a field day with.

  13. #13
    I wonder who Alex Murphy will be rooting for?

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Sounds like this game will be a really good test for us as we have been pretty turnover-prone and could be even more so while we work the new guys into the lineup. I predict Tatum will start as he did in the Maine game, but with Grayson and Frank back (presumably) we'll have to see whose spot he ends up taking. K is going to play the game to win, as he always does, so it will be interesting to see how he manages the lineup. I haven't watched Florida either but everything I've heard from people who have suggests they are a really solid team.
       

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Ichabod Drain View Post
    Yea looking at their numbers on Kenpom they are 14th in the country at forcing turnovers, (about 25% of possessions) and eighth in the country at blocking shots. Looks like their attempts at shot blocking give up a lot of offensive rebounds though which Amile and Marques would have a field day with.
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Sounds like this game will be a really good test for us as we have been pretty turnover-prone and could be even more so while we work the new guys into the lineup.
    Yeah, a turnover is the worst thing we can do tomorrow. Because if Duke can just get a shot up on the rim, there's a good chance our bigs can get the offensive rebound even if it misses. Also, Florida probably will have a lot of trouble scoring in the halfcourt against Duke and will need that extra boost of scoring in transition off of live-ball turnovers.

    Unfortunately, as UrinalCake points out, we might be more turnover-prone than usual while working Tatum and Bolden back into the swing of things and building chemistry. I'm not expecting Duke to bring our A-game tomorrow because it's too soon, and the #12 kenpom team Florida can definitely win.

    It'll be a very good test offensively for Duke's perimeter. Florida's guards are ballhawks and overall they have a very athletic team.

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Won't Be Surprised if tTHis Game is a Challenge

    We have a ton of new talent, now all together on the floor for the first time. Jayson and Marques have practiced very little with the others. Why would we expect the team to function smoothly and effectively? I think we can be saved if Luke, Grayson and Frank shoot well, but I look for some rough edges tomorrow night.

    Kindly,
    Sage
    'Best games I have seen at Duke? Against UNC at Wojo's farewell in 1998. Against UNC on the occasion of the Heyman-Larry Brown fight'
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  17. #17
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Cabbagetown, Atlanta, GA
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    We have a ton of new talent, now all together on the floor for the first time. Jayson and Marques have practiced very little with the others. Why would we expect the team to function smoothly and effectively? I think we can be saved if Luke, Grayson and Frank shoot well, but I look for some rough edges tomorrow night.

    Kindly,
    Sage
    'Best games I have seen at Duke? Against UNC at Wojo's farewell in 1998. Against UNC on the occasion of the Heyman-Larry Brown fight'
    Giles maybe, but Jayson and Marques were at least playing with their teammates all summer. Duke in MSG with a huge advantage in talent? I'd be surprised if this game is close.

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Ichabod Drain View Post
    Yea looking at their numbers on Kenpom they are 14th in the country at forcing turnovers, (about 25% of possessions) and eighth in the country at blocking shots. Looks like their attempts at shot blocking give up a lot of offensive rebounds though which Amile and Marques would have a field day with.
    Good observation! I was going through TeamRankings to see other stats at which they are particularly efficient or deficient.

    Florida...
    - has a high offensive rebounding rate (35.6%/28th in the nation) but very low defensive rebounding rate (69.5%/256th). With a very high block rate (10.9%/12th), this suggests that Florida attempts to block everything and put them in a vulnerable position on the defensive glass. Similarly, they crash the boards on offense. Jefferson, Jeter, and Bolden will have to fight for defensive boards to limit their opportunities.
    - is pretty good at stealing the ball (10.0%/39th) and doesn't get their pocket picked, either (5.6%). Their turnover rate (13.6%/25th) and number of turnovers generated (20.6%/29th) further support the idea that their guards are sure handed and swipe the ball a ton.
    - not so good behind the arc. The Gators shoot just 31.5% from 3 as a team (262nd in the nation).

    This is all to say that Duke needs to limit dribble penetration, hold onto the basket, and control the rebounding game to win. Seems easy enough with our players, but it always comes down to execution.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidBenAkiva View Post
    G Seems easy enough with our players...
    But which players will we have? If Allen and Jackson play (and Tatum/Bolden, of course) then this should be a fairly safe game for Duke. But, if Allen is out we could struggle. He's a junior who understands how our guards play D. Don't discount the importance of that.

    Also, someone asked about who starts -- I expect it will be Jones, Allen, Kennard, Tatum, and Jefferson. Bolden and Jackson will each get 15+ minutes. I'm not sure how much we will see Jeter, likely less than 5 minutes. The other guys won't play unless we have a larger than 10 point lead.

    -Jason "I'm really hoping to see the real Tatum... he wasn't himself against Maine" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    Is there any further word on Giles' condition? Any chance we'll get to see him play tomorrow?

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