2016-2017 Hot Stove Baseball

[FadedTackyShirt]

The Reds are shopping Billy Hamilton, who greatly improved his hitting numbers last year. I'm encouraged to see a bit more base stealing as I grew up in the era where Tim Raines 70 stolen bases in '86 were only 4th best and 37 off Coleman's pace.

Besides a closer (Melacon and/or Holland), my Giants need another OF. Don't have the prospects to get McCutchen, so likely honing in on Dexter Fowler as a free agent or trading for JD Martinez or Jay Bruce. A young Hamilton with multiple years of club control would be very tempting if the Reds didn't demand Christian Arroyo or Tyler Beede.

[Olympic Fan]

The Pirates' effort to deal McCutchen is one of the biggest stories in the offseason.

Two years ago, I would have included him as one of the three or four best position players in baseball. He is coming off a poor year (he was just a bit above average as a hitter in 2016), but he had some nagging injuries that may have caused that -- he will be 30 years old this coming season and he's under team control through 2018 (the team has a $14.75 million option that season.

I think he would be an awesome pickup by somebody (hoping my Yankees deal some of their recent prospect pickup for him). A small gamble, I know, because of his 2016 slump, but that happens -- Bryce Harper slumped almost as badly and nobody is giving up on him.

This is one trade story I'll be following closely (assuming, of course, that w don't get a lockout tonight at midnight).

[JBDuke]

The Pirates' effort to deal McCutchen is one of the biggest stories in the offseason.

Two years ago, I would have included him as one of the three or four best position players in baseball. He is coming off a poor year (he was just a bit above average as a hitter in 2016), but he had some nagging injuries that may have caused that -- he will be 30 years old this coming season and he's under team control through 2018 (the team has a $14.75 million option that season.

I think he would be an awesome pickup by somebody (hoping my Yankees deal some of their recent prospect pickup for him). A small gamble, I know, because of his 2016 slump, but that happens -- Bryce Harper slumped almost as badly and nobody is giving up on him.

This is one trade story I'll be following closely (assuming, of course, that w don't get a lockout tonight at midnight).

There's been some noise about going after him here in DC as well, given that most folks see Turner moving to his natural position of shortstop, that Ben Revere is no longer needed at the top of the lineup and had such an awful year, and that the Nationals could use some right handed power. McCutchen has been one of my favorite non-Nats in recent years, so I'd love to see him here.

[duke74]

I think he would be an awesome pickup by somebody (hoping my Yankees deal some of their recent prospect pickup for him). A small gamble, I know, because of his 2016 slump, but that happens -- Bryce Harper slumped almost as badly and nobody is giving up on him.

Do you really? Wouldn't that be backtracking from what appeared to be excellent, strategic moves by Cash at the deadline to replenish a pretty barren farm system? Now, if you could offer lesser prospects and dump Ellsbury and/or Gardner...interesting...

I guess you trade for assets to use them for other assets, etc...

[FadedTackyShirt]

Cubs, Nats, Giants, Dodgers, Mets, Indians, Red Sox, Os, 'Stros, Jays, Rangers, Royals, and M's should be buyers. Bucs and Tigers should be sellers. McCutchen and Sale are interesting trade bait right now. Verlander will command a higher price at the trade deadline. Brewers are screwed with Braun's baggage, age, and contract.

[Olympic Fan]

Jason Stark of ESPN says that Nats are close to a deal for McCutcheon:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...drew-mccutchen

They want to get the deal done today -- the Nats have to decide Friday whether to tender an offer to free agent shortstop Espinoza (if they get McCutcheon, Turner moves to short and they cut Espinosa loose; if they don't they hang on to Espinoza). It will be interesting to see the package of prospects the Nats offer.

[YmoBeThere]

Cubs, Nats, Giants, Dodgers, Mets, Indians, Red Sox, Os, 'Stros, Jays, Rangers, Royals, and M's should be buyers. Bucs and Tigers should be sellers. McCutchen and Sale are interesting trade bait right now. Verlander will command a higher price at the trade deadline. Brewers are screwed with Braun's baggage, age, and contract.

The Brewers aren't the only NL Central team holding on to bad contracts. The Reds have both Votto and Homer Bailey.

[FadedTackyShirt]

The out years on some of the long pitching contracts are hideous. Giants had to suck it up on Zito, Timmy, and Cain. Cueto's contract is a time bomb if he doesn't opt out after 2017. With some clarity on the CBA, Giants can extend Bum so he retires a Giant.

Verlander's and Bailey's deals are brutal for non-mega clubs that won't be contenders any time soon.

[A-Tex Devil]

Cubs, Nats, Giants, Dodgers, Mets, Indians, Red Sox, Os, 'Stros, Jays, Rangers, Royals, and M's should be buyers. Bucs and Tigers should be sellers. McCutchen and Sale are interesting trade bait right now. Verlander will command a higher price at the trade deadline. Brewers are screwed with Braun's baggage, age, and contract.

Astros going hard after Sale, but I think Bregman will be a sticking point. Frankly, I think the Stros can afford to let him go given they have Gurriel and Correa on left side, but I get the hesitancy. He rocketed up to the majors and will be a stud.

Astros also in the Encarnacion sweepstakes.

The Astros have about a 3 year window while they still have all of these guys (Kuechel, Springer, Correa, McCullers, Bregman, Gurriel, etc.) on lockdown. They need to be buying.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Jason Stark of ESPN says that Nats are close to a deal for McCutcheon:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...drew-mccutchen

They want to get the deal done today -- the Nats have to decide Friday whether to tender an offer to free agent shortstop Espinoza (if they get McCutcheon, Turner moves to short and they cut Espinosa loose; if they don't they hang on to Espinoza). It will be interesting to see the package of prospects the Nats offer.

Slightly OT, but what is Nats' long term plan for Harper? Has two more arbitration years left and the numbers thrown out there ($50M/year, $750 contract!?!) are cartoonish.

[CDu]

Cubs, Nats, Giants, Dodgers, Mets, Indians, Red Sox, Os, 'Stros, Jays, Rangers, Royals, and M's should be buyers. Bucs and Tigers should be sellers. McCutchen and Sale are interesting trade bait right now. Verlander will command a higher price at the trade deadline. Brewers are screwed with Braun's baggage, age, and contract.

I don't see the Cubs being big buyers this year. They were BIG buyers last year, and don't have a ton of needs. Plus, they have to start planning for next year's free agency (Arrieta and Lackey are FA after 2017) and the coming arb years for their young stud offensive players.

I think this offseason will have a few peripheral free-agent pieces (Jon Jay already added as a backup OF; probably a few lower-cost arms for the pen) and possible trades from the OF surplus for pitching. I think they largely decide to run it back minus Fowler, Chapman, Hammel, and Ross but with healthier Schwarber, Rondon, and Strop.

[JBDuke]

Slightly OT, but what is Nats' long term plan for Harper? Has two more arbitration years left and the numbers thrown out there ($50M/year, $750 contract!?!) are cartoonish.

The Nationals' front office is pretty stingy on leaks, so anything you hear about transactions or future moves is likely speculation as much as anything. That being said, the Nationals have the inside track on Harper. The Lerner's have shown a willingness to lay out big money - witness Sherzer's and Strasburg's contracts. Harper appears to really enjoy playing in the city, the fans love him, and everything you hear from the club is positive.

That being said, if his 2017 numbers more closely resemble his 2016 ones instead of his 2015 ones, talk of a monstrous contract will start to wane. If he has another MVP-candidate type year, then they'll ramp up again.

Harper's agent is Scott Boras. Boras usually recommends to his clients that they try the free agency waters rather than committing to a long-term deal with their current club before hitting the open market. That's why Strasburg's contract extension this year was such a surprise - he's another Boras client. I don't see Harper following in Strasburg's footsteps here.

So, my speculation is that he'll get nice raises via arbitration for 2017 and 2018. And then he'll be a free agent. If the Nationals are still fighting Peter Angelos for fair TV rights money, I don't think the club will compete with clubs willing to offer him historic money. I'm not sure they'd do it anyway if they can construct a club that can contend without Bryce. If he doesn't return to his MVP form, he'll be in less demand, and it'll be more likely that he stays.

For now, I'm going to enjoy watching him be a part of this club.

[Olympic Fan]

Speaking of Harper, the current theories seem to be that he will wind up in pinstripes, along with Orioles' third-baseman Manny Machado, who will also be a free agent after 2018:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.470d2066fc04

Just google "Bryce Harper Yankees" and you will be inundated by stories. Buster Olney just posted a story claiming the new CBA makes it more likely that the Yankees can land Harper.

Of course, a long way to go -- and as JB Duke suggests -- his value will be shaped by what kind of seasons he has in 2017 and 2018. Will he regain his MVP status from 2015 or remain at the slightly-above average level of last summer?

As for the Yankees, there is apparently a lot of interest in mid-level free agents. The only big money guy that the Yanks are pursuing seems to be Chapman, who wants to return to NY. The Yankees may deal some of their new prospects for a starting pitcher of note (Sale?).

But the speculation I read (and I read a lot of Yankee stuff) is that the team will be making just minor moves until the potentially great free agent class of 2018 -- Harper, Machado, Donaldson, Harvey, etc. That's when they re-open the vault.

[duke74]

Speaking of Harper, the current theories seem to be that he will wind up in pinstripes, along with Orioles' third-baseman Manny Machado, who will also be a free agent after 2018:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.470d2066fc04

Just google "Bryce Harper Yankees" and you will be inundated by stories. Buster Olney just posted a story claiming the new CBA makes it more likely that the Yankees can land Harper.

Of course, a long way to go -- and as JB Duke suggests -- his value will be shaped by what kind of seasons he has in 2017 and 2018. Will he regain his MVP status from 2015 or remain at the slightly-above average level of last summer?

As for the Yankees, there is apparently a lot of interest in mid-level free agents. The only big money guy that the Yanks are pursuing seems to be Chapman, who wants to return to NY. The Yankees may deal some of their new prospects for a starting pitcher of note (Sale?).

But the speculation I read (and I read a lot of Yankee stuff) is that the team will be making just minor moves until the potentially great free agent class of 2018 -- Harper, Machado, Donaldson, Harvey, etc. That's when they re-open the vault.

And the local papers are projected a lot of cap space (i.e. No tax) when contracts come off the board and the CBA increase the level.

[jimsumner]

Speaking of Harper, the current theories seem to be that he will wind up in pinstripes, along with Orioles' third-baseman Manny Machado, who will also be a free agent after 2018:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.470d2066fc04

Just google "Bryce Harper Yankees" and you will be inundated by stories. Buster Olney just posted a story claiming the new CBA makes it more likely that the Yankees can land Harper.

Of course, a long way to go -- and as JB Duke suggests -- his value will be shaped by what kind of seasons he has in 2017 and 2018. Will he regain his MVP status from 2015 or remain at the slightly-above average level of last summer?

As for the Yankees, there is apparently a lot of interest in mid-level free agents. The only big money guy that the Yanks are pursuing seems to be Chapman, who wants to return to NY. The Yankees may deal some of their new prospects for a starting pitcher of note (Sale?).

But the speculation I read (and I read a lot of Yankee stuff) is that the team will be making just minor moves until the potentially great free agent class of 2018 -- Harper, Machado, Donaldson, Harvey, etc. That's when they re-open the vault.

The Yankees don't seem to have much interest in a blockbuster trade for Sale. They seem to be focusing on Chapman, Rich Hill (meh) and one of the DH/1B types, Encarnacion, Beltan, Napoli, et. al.

Wouldn't it be weird if the Yankees signed Chapman and Beltran months after moving them and acquiring some top prospects? Especially Arizona Fall League MV_ Gleyber Torres.

Talk about renting.

I've read that the Yanks like Beltran in part because he's a positive influence on young Latin players. A mentor. Torres, Jorge Mateo, Luis Cessa and others could benefit.

As could other young Latin players on other teams.

BTW, a friend of mine worked the AFL and tells me that Torres was far and away the best prospect there. A future five-tool star.

He also said that Tim Tebow seemed like a genuinely nice guy. Not an act. No chance to ever play in the majors. But a nice guy

[CDu]

Looks like Beltran to the Astros.

[FadedTackyShirt]

Melancon offers are allegedly around $60/4 years. Chapman/Jansen deals will be uuuuge.

[Olympic Fan]

Looks like the Yankees just picked up Matt Holliday -- a one-year deal for $13 million

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...m-deal-yankees

He's coming off an injury plagued year, but at age 37, he ought to be able to DH and maybe play a little first base. Not a bad gamble for a one-year deal.

[jimsumner]

Looks like the Yankees just picked up Matt Holliday -- a one-year deal for $13 million

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/1...m-deal-yankees

He's coming off an injury plagued year, but at age 37, he ought to be able to DH and maybe play a little first base. Not a bad gamble for a one-year deal.

I love this deal.

In 2009.

Now? Meh.

I guess I'm in the go-big-or-go-home-camp. I hoped the Yankees would either go for Encanarcion or just sit it out and give the youngsters a chance.

I guess Holliday does give them a right-handed bat. But he didn't look like he had that much left in the tank last season.

[Olympic Fan]

I love this deal.

In 2009.

Now? Meh.

I guess I'm in the go-big-or-go-home-camp. I hoped the Yankees would either go for Encanarcion or just sit it out and give the youngsters a chance.

I guess Holliday does give them a right-handed bat. But he didn't look like he had that much left in the tank last season.

I respectfully disagree -- about 1,000 percent.

(1) Encanarcion would have bee a long-term deal that which would be repeating the kind of financial decision that has hamstrung the Yankees over the last few years. Yeah, he's great for year 1 and maybe 2, but then you are stick with an aging non-contributor. Getting Holliday for one year is the key.

(2) This IS giving the youngsters a chance. Holliday is a veteran right-handed bat who will supplement the kids -- not take a spot in the lineup away from them (as Encanarcion would do).

(3) Holliday may not have a lot in his tank, but he may have jus been the victim of an injury-riddled year (actually, two in a row). But he's just 37 and lot's a players that age still have some punch. Even last season, he had 20 home runs (and 20 doubles) in just 382 at bats. He came back from injury late and finished the season with two at bats -- a home run and an RBI single.

Okay, he's a terrible defensive outfielder, a below-average first baseman and he can't run (all criticisms that apply to Encanarcion), but he's a professional hitter.

All and all, a very low risk gamble.