MBB Dork Polls/Stats: 2016-17 Edition

[Troublemaker]

Matt Norlander ‏@MattNorlander 3h3 hours ago
KenPom’s 2016-17 rankings are live. Key to remember that Ken’s system admittedly doesn’t work out the kinks for the first month, at least.


http://kenpom.com/

[Kedsy]

Matt Norlander ‏@MattNorlander 3h3 hours ago
KenPom’s 2016-17 rankings are live. Key to remember that Ken’s system admittedly doesn’t work out the kinks for the first month, at least.


http://kenpom.com/

Looks like he re-did his ratings again and changed past years retroactively (compare what was on his page six months ago to what's there now). Good news is our 2016 defense improved from 107th to 86th!

[BD80]

Looks like he re-did his ratings again and changed past years retroactively (compare what was on his page six months ago to what's there now). Good news is our 2016 defense improved from 107th to 86th!

That's concrete evidence of successful off-season coaching!

[JasonEvans]

I know it is early, but it is still impressive that we are tied for #1 in Strength of Schedule and also tied for #1 in Luck. A lucky team that plays a tough sked... not bad!

-Jason " "Evans

[DavidBenAkiva]

I was noticing the number of ACC teams in the top of the rankings.

#1 Overall (Duke)
4 of the Top 10 (Add in Virginia, UNC, and Louisville)
7 of the Top 25 (Add in Syracuse, Clemson, and Miami)
10 of the Top 40 (Add in NC State, Virginia Tech, and Florida State)
11 of the Top 50 (Add in Notre Dame)
12 of the Top 51 (Pitt is #51)

There are other conferences with multiple teams in the top 50, of course. Here's the count:

Big 12: 8
B1G: 7
Big East: 7
AAC: 3
PAC 12: 3
SEC: 3
West Coast Conference: 2

[Ichabod Drain]

Duke has the number one offense and is eighteenth in defense. I expect the offense to still be top 5 at the end of the year. If our defense is still in the top 20 then we have a really good shot. This team will be able to fill it up all year, the question will be if we can stop other teams from doing the same.

Also and FYI for people who like Kenpom a lot, there is a Kenpom APP that works really well. It's not quite as robust as the actual site but it has probably 75% on the info and is easy to view and sort through.

[DoubleBlue]

Then there's the College Basketball Ranking Composite by Massey Ratings which shows the average of over 50 rating systems. The current page shows last year's final composite and will switch to the current year once the season gets underway. There are links to each of the individual ratings sites at the top. Click on the school names to see the game schedule and results for each team. I've found this to be helpful throughout the season especially when the major polls (AP, USA Today, ESPN and RPI) are conflicting. Of course the conmposite is steadier and less prone to week-to-week emotional bias or perceived favoritisms. http://masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm

[Troublemaker]

Looks like he re-did his ratings again and changed past years retroactively (compare what was on his page six months ago to what's there now). Good news is our 2016 defense improved from 107th to 86th!

Good catch! His blog explains the change here. There's a lot of boring stuff in there but I'm excited about his last paragraph where he says he intends to determine site-specific home court advantage numbers. That's something I've wanted somebody to study statistically for awhile now. Where do Cameron Indoor, Allen Field House, etc really rank in home court advantage?

[Troublemaker]

SI releases their full computer projections

Duke is #1 with projected #1 offense and #11 defense

[MChambers]

If this team has the #11 defense, I think we'll all be very happy.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If this team has the #11 defense, I think we'll all be very happy.

Could not agree more. #11 is pretty amazing, given our heavy involvement of freshman in the rotation (arguably at least 50% of the rotation) and select returning players not known for their defense.

[Ichabod Drain]

Still #1 in Kenpom... just saying.

[JasonEvans]

Still #1 in Kenpom... just saying.

Funny quirk to Kenpom -- right now, Kansas has the 10th toughest SOS. I was sorta floored by this as they have played Duke (#1) and Indiana (#13) thus far. I mean, how much tougher could anyone's first couple games be?

The #2 team is Marist, who have played Duke (#1) and Rhode Island (#31). So, why are they ahead of Kansas in SOS? Because Kansas's two games were both on neutral floors while poor Marist had to play both games on the road. Makes sense and really shows how significant a disadvantage it is to play on the road.

The toughest schedule so far belongs to William & Mary. They have played Bridgewater (DIII team) and at Louisville. Even though KenPom says W&M is 1-1, I don't think he counts the Bridgewater game in their stats. It would seem that playing Louisivlle on the road is tougher than Duke and Rhode Island on the road or Duke and Indiana in neutral sites.

-Jason "all of this will sort out nicely in the next week or two" Evans

[Troublemaker]

Luke Winn's first Power Rankings of the season

(Note: I'll link Winn's weekly power rankings in this thread because they are usually stats-heavy.)

Some nice praise for Kennard, who Winn calls Duke's "offensive MVP" so far. There's a video in the Duke section showing various plays of Kennard operating in Duke's Horns set, which Winn refers to as an "A set"

[uh_no]

Still #1 in Kenpom... just saying.

you would expect very minimal change in such a tight game with a team that kenpom rates so highly...a 10-20 point loss could possibly have been enough to knock us down a peg.

[Ichabod Drain]

you would expect very minimal change in such a tight game with a team that kenpom rates so highly...a 10-20 point loss could possibly have been enough to knock us down a peg.

It's not so much the win/loss of a game, more in how you actually perform. We still had the #1 offense and our defense is still relatively the same. If we had given up 1.25 ppp and still lost by two I would have expected a larger change in our defensive efficiency rating.

[uh_no]

It's not so much the win/loss of a game, more in how you actually perform. We still had the #1 offense and our defense is still relatively the same. If we had given up 1.25 ppp and still lost by two I would have expected a larger change in our defensive efficiency rating.

sure, but we would have had a bump in offense after scoring 1.22 ppp against a defense that normally gives up .9, meaning our overall rating probably wouldn't have been hugely affective given that the rankings are strictly additive now, instead of being pythagorean.

[Isaac Sours]

Luke Winn's first Power Rankings of the season

(Note: I'll link Winn's weekly power rankings in this thread because they are usually stats-heavy.)

Some nice praise for Kennard, who Winn calls Duke's "offensive MVP" so far. There's a video in the Duke section showing various plays of Kennard operating in Duke's Horns set, which Winn refers to as an "A set"

thanks for posting that. I really like Winn's work, he's thorough and well-spoken. the gifs embedded in the story are a nice touch.

[Troublemaker]

With Syracuse continuing to inch on up the Kenpom rankings, the ACC currently has 5 of the top 8 teams. Crazy.

[JasonEvans]

With Syracuse continuing to inch on up the Kenpom rankings, the ACC currently has 5 of the top 8 teams. Crazy.

9 days later and the ACC still has a crazy high Pomeroy rating. We have the top 3 teams (Duke, Virg, UNC) and 5 of the top 9 (Lou #7, Syr #9).

Generally, the top 40 teams in Pomeroy's rankings make the field. In addition to the 5 teams in the top 10, the ACC also has Miami (#26), Notre Dame (#29), Clemson (#33), FSU (#36), and Va Tech (#39) in good shape to make the dance if the tourney were today. That's 10 teams and it does not even include NC State, a team that many expect to be fairly strong in the league as the season moves along.

-Jason "Duke #1 in offense, Virginia #1 in defense... clash of the titans Feb 15 in Charlottesville" Evans