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  1. #21
    i bet there'll be a fair amount of misguided hype for the conference to be first with 2 teams in the playoff - if louisville and clemson keep winning, the acc has a fair shot.

  2. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    i bet there'll be a fair amount of misguided hype for the conference to be first with 2 teams in the playoff - if louisville and clemson keep winning, the acc has a fair shot.
    Why do you call it misguided? There don't seem to be a lot of dominant teams out there. Do you see the ACC as undeserving?

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Tripping William View Post
    Stick a fork in 'em. They done.
    During the WVU game Brady Quinn was whining that if not for the botched ending of the Central Michigan game Oklahoma State would be a one loss team and, if they won out, Big 12 champs with a shot at the playoff. Now he can add the conference won't get a team in the playoff to the list of unfortunate consequences he rattled off today. Of course he made no mention of the fact that Oklahoma State could have a) taken a knee, b) defended the hail mary, or c) not have been in a 1 possession game with a middle of the pack MAC team and then that call doesn't happen or matter anyway.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Why do you call it misguided? There don't seem to be a lot of dominant teams out there. Do you see the ACC as undeserving?
    my comment was not specific to the acc, nor to this season. i believe there are a lot of superior methods of assessing conference quality than whether you get 2 teams in the playoff (it's like assessing basketball conference quality by # of bids). i'd love it if the acc could pull it off this season and win the title too - lots of positive attention for that!

  5. #25
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Washington improves to 8-0 with a 31-24 victory over Utah. On the decisive 58 yard punt return for a TD, there were potentially three illegal blocks in the back with no flags thrown.
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I saw the same thing -- one of them, near midfield was absolutely blatant. I was amazed that in several replays, the announcers never mentioned them.

    The win keeps Washington in the Final Four (at the moment).

    West Virginia drops out of the national title picture with a loss to Oklahoma State (Bama, OSU, Clemson, Louisville might get in with one loss, but not West Virginia).

    As of thus moment (Clemson at FSU pending in less than an hour), I think the four playoff teams are Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington.

    Baylor and a bunch of one-loss teams have to keep winning and hope for help.
    If Refs are going to be that blind/ignorant/asleep at the wheel on blocks in the back that lead directly to game winning, Touch Downs on games with a high impact on the National Scene like this one, and in Regular Season games with teams in the hunt for a Division Win and a better bowl like Duke/Miami last season, then the powers that be should make plays like that reviewable for the block in the back or other penalties. It just isn't right for a team to be allowed to win a game based on blatant, obvious block in the back penalties that go uncalled for whatever reason.

    Rant Over

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    my comment was not specific to the acc, nor to this season. i believe there are a lot of superior methods of assessing conference quality than whether you get 2 teams in the playoff (it's like assessing basketball conference quality by # of bids). i'd love it if the acc could pull it off this season and win the title too - lots of positive attention for that!
    Ah, I misunderstood. Carry on!

  7. #27
    With Clemson and Washington surviving today, the Michigan-Ohio State game looms large. If Michigan wins, the current top four will probably stand. If OSU wins, then it gets interesting.

  8. #28
    Four unbeaten teams went down today -- Baylor and West Virginia (bye-bye Big 12), Nebraska and Boise State.

    That leaves the Big Four -- Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington ... plus (ta-da!) Western Michigan. I doubt WMU gets in the playoff mix, but they are clearly positioned to get the Power Six bowl bid that's reserved for the best "other five team".

    The Big Four I mentioned will clearly be the top four in the first poll next week.

    Losses could still upset things.

    I'd say the next co0ntenders in line (in order) are:

    (1) Ohio State (because they get a shot at Michigan).

    (2) Louisville (but Houston's slump has hurt their case)

    (3) Florida (if the Gators win out, beat FSU, then upset Bama in the SEC title game, it makes a good case)

  9. #29
    I agree with the posts above mentioning the possibility of a playoff with 2 teams from one conference. The most likely scenario for that to happen probably includes Ohio State and Michigan. Two ACC teams is not completely implausible, but I don't think Louisville's resume is going to look quite as good at the end of the season as we thought it would mid-season.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I agree with the posts above mentioning the possibility of a playoff with 2 teams from one conference. The most likely scenario for that to happen probably includes Ohio State and Michigan. Two ACC teams is not completely implausible, but I don't think Louisville's resume is going to look quite as good at the end of the season as we thought it would mid-season.
    agree that michigan & osu could create a strong argument, but that one is very dependent on osu winning out, and that path includes games against nebraska, michigan and the tbd west champ. osu is playing mediocre right now, so that is well below a 50/50 bet in my eyes.

    texas a&m has an easier path and, if they finished with 1 loss, would probably have the upper hand over a 1-loss louisville too. but i'd put them substantially below 50/50 as well as they still have lsu and mediocre, but dangerous, ole miss and miss st. aggie fans know their team loves to break their hearts.

    i think a 1 loss big 12 champ might sneak back into the conversation (depending on the still not clearly established value of being a conference champion), but both wvu and baylor aren't all that good and have plenty of potential challenges left (including oklahoma and each other).

    of course for any of this to be relevant something weird needs to go down, since we have clear favorites for the 4 slots today. i think in order for things to open up, either clemson or washington needs to not win their conference title games. beyond that, alabama in theory could drop 2, but, well... that seems really unlikely.

    here are some fun scenarios i'd love people's opinions on, what if wisconsin or nebraska wins the big 12 championship over michigan? or a 2 loss florida wins the sec title over alabama? how do those teams stack up (even against each other - do you still take michigan over wisconsin)? if washington loses pac 12 title game, are they still likely to be ahead of louisville (or a 2 loss pac 12 champ colorado or utah for that matter)? i guess the point is that there is waaaay too much football left to be played (and uncertainty about the process) to really say much - there are probably still a dozen or so live teams.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    here are some fun scenarios i'd love people's opinions on, what if wisconsin or nebraska wins the big 12 championship over michigan? or a 2 loss florida wins the sec title over alabama? how do those teams stack up (even against each other - do you still take michigan over wisconsin)? if washington loses pac 12 title game, are they still likely to be ahead of louisville (or a 2 loss pac 12 champ colorado or utah for that matter)? i guess the point is that there is waaaay too much football left to be played (and uncertainty about the process) to really say much - there are probably still a dozen or so live teams.
    I totally agree that there are a lot more live teams than people generally talk about. I think the best way to categorize them at this point is by tiering them into teams that control their own destiny and teams that need help. I'd say...

    Teams that are basically guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out
    Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Clemson, Washington

    Teams that could make the playoffs if they win out, and some realistic other stuff happens
    Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Louisville

    Teams that could make the playoffs if they win out, and some highly unlikely other stuff happens
    Western Michigan, every power 5 team with 2 losses not listed above

    Auburn and Oklahoma are the least talked about teams on my list, but that will change if they keep winning.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I totally agree that there are a lot more live teams than people generally talk about. I think the best way to categorize them at this point is by tiering them into teams that control their own destiny and teams that need help. I'd say...

    Teams that are basically guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out
    Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Clemson, Washington

    Teams that could make the playoffs if they win out, and some realistic other stuff happens
    Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Texas A&M, Louisville

    Teams that could make the playoffs if they win out, and some highly unlikely other stuff happens
    Western Michigan, every power 5 team with 2 losses not listed above

    Auburn and Oklahoma are the least talked about teams on my list, but that will change if they keep winning.
    this simplifies things quite nicely. just focusing on your top line, we can bracket it a bit given many of those are on collision courses.

    Teams that are basically guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out
    At most one of: Alabama, Florida, Auburn,
    At most one of: Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska,
    Clemson,
    Washington

    Of course, this just reinforces the simple 4 conference champ/big 12 out scenario is pretty obvious at the moment. if clemson or washington don't win their conferences, well, that's the obvious way to start making things spicy.

    Auburn is interesting. I'm not confident, but I think they would lose a 3 team tie with alabama and A&M (it would go to alabama) if it came to that. I don't think a 2-loss not conference champ auburn is likely to get in and they'd probably be behind 1 loss not conference champ A&M (who has the head-to-head) and potential 1 loss conference champ alabama (who has the conference championship) in that scenario.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    Auburn is interesting. I'm not confident, but I think they would lose a 3 team tie with alabama and A&M (it would go to alabama) if it came to that. I don't think a 2-loss not conference champ auburn is likely to get in and they'd probably be behind 1 loss not conference champ A&M (who has the head-to-head) and potential 1 loss conference champ alabama (who has the conference championship) in that scenario.
    Oops, you're right... Auburn would likely not win a 3-way tie with Alabama and Texas A&M (it depends on what the east teams do). So move Auburn down to the second tier of "needs help that is realistic." Good call.

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post

    Teams that are basically guaranteed to make the playoffs if they win out
    Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Michigan, Ohio State, Nebraska, Clemson, Washington
    Florida would have a very nice resume if they win out, but I don't think they would be a cinch to make the playoffs without a few of the others stumbling.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by ipatent View Post
    Florida would have a very nice resume if they win out, but I don't think they would be a cinch to make the playoffs without a few of the others stumbling.
    interesting. could you provide 4 teams who would be ahead of florida in a scenario where florida wins out?

  16. #36
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    Four unbeaten teams went down today -- Baylor and West Virginia (bye-bye Big 12), Nebraska and Boise State.

    That leaves the Big Four -- Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington ... plus (ta-da!) Western Michigan. I doubt WMU gets in the playoff mix, but they are clearly positioned to get the Power Six bowl bid that's reserved for the best "other five team".

    The Big Four I mentioned will clearly be the top four in the first poll next week.

    Losses could still upset things.

    I'd say the next co0ntenders in line (in order) are:

    (1) Ohio State (because they get a shot at Michigan).

    (2) Louisville (but Houston's slump has hurt their case)

    (3) Florida (if the Gators win out, beat FSU, then upset Bama in the SEC title game, it makes a good case)
    Western Michigan is my dark horse candidate as they also have a Harbaugh on the coaching staff:

    http://www.wmubroncos.com/sports/200...aspx#football


    (friend of the family )
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  17. #37
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    IMG_0190.jpg

    Georgia-Florida yesterday from the Bob Uecker seats in Jacksonville. UF's defense looked strong although to be fair UGa's offense was fairly inept. UF's offense was pretty much sweep runs and button hooks -- not much in the way of deep threat bombs or power runs. Great punting game and kick-offs, shaky FG kicker. At least, that was my impression from one game -- I do not pretend to have studied them all year.

    UF deserves the ranking it has, which is somewhere in the second ten. If they win out and beat Alabama, obviously they are a contender for the playoffs. Their last four games are @ Arkansas; host the Gamecocks; @ LSU and then @ FSU. Plus Alabama in the conference championship. You win that out, you're certainly poised to argue that you are a top-4 team.

    IMG_0132.jpg
    Last edited by OldPhiKap; 10-30-2016 at 02:43 PM.
    “Fútbol is life!” — Dani Rojas, Richmond Greyhounds

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    interesting. could you provide 4 teams who would be ahead of florida in a scenario where florida wins out?
    Any combination of an undefeated Clemson, an undefeated Washington, an undefeated or one loss Michigan, a one loss Ohio State, a one loss Texas A&M, a one loss Louisville and even a one loss Alabama with a close loss to Florida in the SEC title game could edge a one loss Florida out. Florida would have an argument, but I don't think its a cinch.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by ipatent View Post
    Any combination of an undefeated Clemson, an undefeated Washington, an undefeated or one loss Michigan, a one loss Ohio State, a one loss Texas A&M, a one loss Louisville and even a one loss Alabama with a close loss to Florida in the SEC title game could edge a one loss Florida out. Florida would have an argument, but I don't think its a cinch.
    you are implicitly saying the following teams with 1 loss and no conference championship would be ahead of a 1 loss SEC champion florida team that has just finished the season with wins at lsu, at florida st. and in the title game against one of then top 10 alabama, texas a&m or auburn:
    - louisville (best win home against fsu, 2nd best win ??? home vs. wake? at houston?)
    - michigan (best win home against wisconsin, 2nd best win ??? home vs. psu, colorado?)
    - texas a&m (best wins at auburn, home against lsu)
    - alabama (head to head loss to finish the season for the conference championship)
    * OSU either has 2 losses (and presumed to be out) or is conference champion and presumed to be in ahead of michigan

    i don't see it, but, then again, i think the conference championship is worth something. if you value conference championship at zero, i see how you could start making the argument for these teams. it would be really funny to watch the committee try to explain why they took texas a&m or alabama over a 1-loss conference champ florida - everyone would go completely nuts!

    i guess this is also partly of strength of victory vs. strength of loss situation - all of those teams would have a 'less bad' loss than at tennessee.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by bob blue devil View Post
    you are implicitly saying the following teams with 1 loss and no conference championship would be ahead of a 1 loss SEC champion florida team that has just finished the season with wins at lsu, at florida st. and in the title game against one of then top 10 alabama, texas a&m or auburn:
    - louisville (best win home against fsu, 2nd best win ??? home vs. wake? at houston?)
    - michigan (best win home against wisconsin, 2nd best win ??? home vs. psu, colorado?)
    - texas a&m (best wins at auburn, home against lsu)
    - alabama (head to head loss to finish the season for the conference championship)
    * OSU either has 2 losses (and presumed to be out) or is conference champion and presumed to be in ahead of michigan

    i don't see it, but, then again, i think the conference championship is worth something. if you value conference championship at zero, i see how you could start making the argument for these teams. it would be really funny to watch the committee try to explain why they took texas a&m or alabama over a 1-loss conference champ florida - everyone would go completely nuts!

    i guess this is also partly of strength of victory vs. strength of loss situation - all of those teams would have a 'less bad' loss than at tennessee.
    Agreed. I don't see how a one-loss SEC team, in about every year over the last twenty, is not a top-four team. The league is just that good, even if weighed towards the West division many of those years.

    Having said that, Florida won't be that team.
    “Fútbol is life!” — Dani Rojas, Richmond Greyhounds

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