We're two weeks away from the first playoff poll, but I would argue that we're down to 13 teams left with a realistic chance of being in the playoffs.

My reasoning is this a team either has to be unbeaten or a one-loss team from a power conference. Houston might have made it unbeaten, but not with a loss to Navy. But Louisville, with a loss to Clemson, is still in the running.

Here are the unbeaten teams that are still in the chase:

Alabama
Texas A&M
Washington
Michigan
Ohio State
Nebraska
Clemson
Baylor
West Virginia

Also: Boise State has an outside chance if they stay unbeaten. I should mention that Western Michigan is also unbeaten, but I don't believe they can win a spot in the playoffs, even with a perfect record. There is a spot in the major bowls for a non-power 5 team, but I think WMU will have a hard time beating Boise, Houston and maybe even Navy of that spot.

At the moment, there are just three one-loss power five teams:
Louisville
Utah
Florida

Obvious this list will change a lot by the first poll, much less by selection Sunday -- this week alone, Alabama and Texas A&M meet, so one has to lose. Only one of the three Big Ten teams can finish unbeaten. Only one of the two unbeaten Big 12 teams can stay that way.

Until I'm proven wrong, I believe:

(1) Any unbeaten power 5 team is a lock for the playoffs (technically, it's possible to have six unbeaten P5 teams -- one from each P5 conference plus Notre Dame, but that's extremely unlikely to ever happen).

(2) Any two loss team is out. Again, there is always an extreme set of circumstances that could let a two-loss team in, but I don't think it will happen.

That still leaves us with a handful of real contenders for the four playoff spots. It will be fun to track the contenders and cross them out as they get to two losses.