Top 5 Movies of Winter 2016-17

[grad_devil]

The 0 people who voted for it will be really disappointed.

Welp, that's what I get for purposefully not reading this thread before voting. Sigh.

Hey, I enjoyed the books...what can I say?

[YmoBeThere]

Welp, that's what I get for purposefully not reading this thread before voting. Sigh.

Hey, I enjoyed the books...what can I say?

There exists the chance that you are correct and everyone else is wrong. That's why we play this game.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Thanks for the heartfelt apology, but from the reviews, and I read them all at RT, if one indeed enjoyed the books and previous movies, this one will be enjoyable as well.

Dan Brown isn't Umberto Eco (which can be a good thing), but he's entertaining. Tom Hanks and Felicity Jones together? Priceless.

I admit that I have a soft spot for mystery thrillers, especially if there's a "quest" involved (what's your favorite color?). Comic book-inspired films aren't my thing, and most of the childrens' films are more interesting for kids and their parents. Leaves me with chili.

Thanks for taking my post with the proper intention. We all have different tastes, and that is why these predictions are so tough. If it was a scientific process, imagine how boring it would be?

I am certain there are movies in my collection that would make you cringe. Perhaps another thread for another day.

[LegoBatman]

Long time watcher. First time player.

I went with:

• Fantastic Beasts (Nov 18) - Nature documentaries aren't usually blockbuster hits, but with the recent Pokemon Go craze and excitement around the trailer for Planet Earth II I think this one has a chance.
• Moana (Nov 23) - My son is too young to watch movies and his answer to most of my questions is "no", so I had to pick between Moana and Sing on my own. Maybe it's Lin-Manuel Miranda and my wife's excitement about all things Hamilton or maybe I'm a bit burned out on singing competitions after watching way too many seasons of American Idol and The Voice, but for some reason the Moana trailer appealed more to me.
• Rogue One (Dec 16) - A mash-up of Sarah Palin and space fantasy? How can you go wrong?
• Passengers (Dec 21) - Jennifer Lawrence and Chris Pratt plus the past success of Gravity, Interstellar, and The Martian.
• LEGO Batman (Feb 10) - I felt compelled to pick this one for some reason...

[JasonEvans]

I felt compelled to pick this one for some reason...

You are easily my favorite poster with less than 10 total posts!

[JasonEvans]

So, I think at least 10 people have so far picked Strange, Beasts, Moana, Rogue, and Lego**... if those 5 are it we are going to have more winners this winter than we have had in the history of all of our winter and summer contests.

-Jason "put another way, I am not picking those 5... even though I agree they are the 5 most likely to make the top 5. Of course, I have no idea yet which I will jettison and which films I will pick instead" Evans

**-- Including Udaman. I can't pick the same films as Udaman!??!?

[cato]

So, I think at least 10 people have so far picked Strange, Beasts, Moana, Rogue, and Lego**... if those 5 are it we are going to have more winners this winter than we have had in the history of all of our winter and summer contests.

-Jason "put another way, I am not picking those 5... even though I agree they are the 5 most likely to make the top 5. Of course, I have no idea yet which I will jettison and which films I will pick instead" Evans

**-- Including Udaman. I can't pick the same films as Udaman!??!?

There have only been a handful of contests with one winner, and we have never approached 10. So, my money is on some other top 5.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Long time watcher. First time player.

I went with:

• LEGO Batman (Feb 10) - I felt compelled to pick this one for some reason...

If you hadn't, I would have petitioned the mods for an infraction.

[luburch]

I went with Strange, Beasts, Moana, Rogue One, and Lego Batman as well. I really wanted to go with Passengers as my 5th pick, but a movie about space and such coming out a weekend after Rogue just didn't make much since to me.

[YmoBeThere]

I pondered Lego Batman but was bothered by the timing. In a two week period that makes up many Christmas breaks, kids would be able to see a couple films and LB would appeal to the youngest of that crowd. Sure Rogue One is there and the timeframe is compressed but if you have a good product it will succeed. So, baffled by this I instead chose another film from another weekend that appears to have a snowball's chance in hell of making the top 5. Because that's what I do.

[JasonEvans]

So, here are my picks in order of the boxoffice return I expect from them:

1. Rogue One - If it only does 30% of what force Awakens did, it still makes over $280 million. Huge no brainer. It could be mediocre and still make $400 million with ease.
2. Moana - I think you bet against Lin Manuel Miranda at your own peril. Plus, Disney Animation Studios is on a real roll. In the past 4 years they've made Wreck-it Ralph, Frozen, Big Hero 6, and Zootopia... each a big hit. This feels like it has a lot of elements that will allow it to appeal to multiple demographic groups (LMM's songs will make this film waaay more popular with teens and young adults than most Disney Animated films). I'll bet it makes over $300 mil.
3. Dr. Strange - Betting against Marvel Studios is a bad idea and the early word is that this is one of the better comic book movies with perhaps the best acting of any film in the genre. The effects are said to be eye-popping and critics seems to love how weird and wild it is. So far, it is at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. I suspect it will be a film that comic book movie fans will go see multiple times, powering it to more than $230 mil in boxoffice.
4. Passengers - A sci-fi date movie is a rare thing, allowing a film to both bring in fanboys while also attracting a female audience. Guys who dread the "date movies" with the girlfriend/wife will see it for the sci-fi and women who dread being dragged to a space adventure with their boyfriend/hubby will see it for the romance. I also suspect it may garner some award attention which could help it to be a strong boxoffice player into late January. It figures to be the most obvious back up choice for folks who want to see Rogue One but find it to be sold out (which could be a lot of poeple!). I expect it to earn more than $210 million.
5. Fantastic Beats - Wait a second, Jason. What is this film doing in your #5 spot? Well, I think the Harry Potter franchise has gotten a little long in the tooth. It has been 5+ years since Deathly Hallows pt 2 and the teens who grew up on Potter are now young adults who may have moved on to something different. I know the Fantastic Beats book was completely different from the other Potter books, but its sales are something like 1/20th of what any other Potter book has done. The trailers have not really impressed me all that much -- I can't tell if this story is funny or thrilling -- and it feels like there is barely any connection at all to the characters we grew to love in the original story. I came very close to leaving this off my top 5 altogether (Lego Batman would have replaced it), but I included it because it has a very favorable release date that will allow it to bask in multiple big moviegoing weekends while many of the other contenders are just not coming out at times where people go to a lot of movies. I'm betting it makes $200 million.

That is it. As you can tell, I am extremely skeptical of Fantastic Beasts and will probably shoot myself if it fails to make the top 5, as I probably should not have voted for it at all. But, the power of Potter compels me.

-Jason "a few days ago, I was all set to vote for the same 5 as everyone else, subbing Lego for Passengers... but I fear doing the obvious as that never seems to work. As an aside, I would love love love for Dark Tower to crash the party. Please be good!!" Evans

[luburch]

So, here are my picks in order of the boxoffice return I expect from them:

5. Fantastic Beats - Wait a second, Jason. What is this film doing in your #5 spot? Well, I think the Harry Potter franchise has gotten a little long in the tooth. It has been 5+ years since Deathly Hallows pt 2 and the teens who grew up on Potter are now young adults who may have moved on to something different. I know the Fantastic Beats book was completely different from the other Potter books, but its sales are something like 1/20th of what any other Potter book has done. The trailers have not really impressed me all that much -- I can't tell if this story is funny or thrilling -- and it feels like there is barely any connection at all to the characters we grew to love in the original story. I came very close to leaving this off my top 5 altogether (Lego Batman would have replaced it), but I included it because it has a very favorable release date that will allow it to bask in multiple big moviegoing weekends while many of the other contenders are just not coming out at times where people go to a lot of movies. I'm betting it makes $200 million.


That is it. As you can tell, I am extremely skeptical of Fantastic Beasts and will probably shoot myself if it fails to make the top 5, as I probably should not have voted for it at all. But, the power of Potter compels me.

Well, to be fair, Fantastic Beasts isn't really much of a book. It's really more of an encyclopedia. I think the trailers look outstanding. I'd be surprised if it doesn't finish in the top 3.

[Udaman]

So um...JE...I hate to be the bearer of bad news....but you ain't winning the Winter Pool. Not without picking the Lego Movie.

The first Lego movie made $258M - three years ago. Also released in February. My three kids - who are now 18, 16 and 13 have all said to me at one point or another, "Can't wait to see the Batman Lego movie," and then started singing the Batman Lego song. This movie comes out right before the Northeast holiday season, so it will do very, very well that first weekend, and then have absolutely no competition for kids under the age of 12 until March 17th, when Beauty and the Beast Comes out. Batman Lego is a lock for $250M, and our top 5.

But...if it makes you feel any better...I don't think those of us who picked the same Top 5 are going to win. Here's my breakdown (and yes, I played it safe, which is why I'm not going to win).

1. Star Wars. No brainer.

2. Strange Beasts. No brainer. Harry Potter fans number in millions, and they will all go see this movie, even if it isn't any good. They miss the Harry Potter world.

3. Lego Batman. See comments above.

Those three I'm absolutely certain of. Next two I'm more dicey on...

4. Moana. Disney animated film around the holidays...and there's not much competition until Sing comes out December 21st...so it should make the Top 5. But the Disney movies with a native slant (see Mulan and Pocahantas), haven't always done as well as they should for some reason (those two both made less than $150M). I put this up here only because of it's Thanksgiving market and no real kid competition...but I'm nervous about it.

5. Dr. Strange. Nervous here as well. Though the fact that it's getting good reviews makes me a bit more sanguine. Not a super known comic book person, and the movie seems pretty cerebral. Will have to see how that translates.

And for Dark Horses...(in no particular order)

Office Christmas Party (people like funny movies around the holiday)
Why Him (see Daddy's Home from last year)
Sing (animated movies always are a player in this thing)
The Passengers (for all the reasons JE listed)
Loving (will get tremendous reviews and is an incredible feel good story...needed in these times)
Founder (will also get great reviews)
The Dark Tower (millions of books sold, and a great cast...if it gets good reviews, definite "dark" horse. Ba dum dum).

If each of those 7 has just a 10% chance of cracking the top 5, then the odds none of them doing it are 48%. So odds are...one of them does.

[JasonEvans]

I think the trailers look outstanding.

The trailers have failed to connect me to Newt Scamander or explain much of who he is. What are his motives? Is he the good guy or a little bit of a bad guy? The trailer seems to imply that it is his fault the magical creates have escaped into our world, I think. Other than "the magical creates have escaped," I have no idea what the plot of the film is. Are we just going to go from place to place trying to recapture the fantastic beats? Is there something larger at play here?

The cast lacks star power in a big, big way -- I think Eddie Redmayne is a wonderful actor, but he does not have the look of someone around whom you would choose to build a multi-billion dollar franchise. Colin Farrell is a good bad guy, I guess... he is the bad guy, right? It appears that way but the trailers have not shown me enough story to really know. Is he a muggle or a magician? I cannot tell from the trailers if the film has any romance or even a female character worth knowing. It certainly looks like there is no strong female role model like Hermione Granger.

Perhaps most importantly, other than the telltale Potter music, there just doesn't seem to be any connection at all to the Potter characters we know and love. I know it takes place well before Harry and his classmates are born, but is Dumbledore in the film? What about a young Hagrid or Voldemort? Heck, at least show me a young version of Harry's parents or something like that.

-Jason "my kids, who made us see every Potter movie on opening night and often went multiple times, say they don't really care whether they see this film. If the reviews and buzz is good, they'll see it but if not, they don't mind missing it" Evans

[JasonEvans]

The first Lego movie made $258M - three years ago. Also released in February. My three kids - who are now 18, 16 and 13 have all said to me at one point or another, "Can't wait to see the Batman Lego movie," and then started singing the Batman Lego song. This movie comes out right before the Northeast holiday season, so it will do very, very well that first weekend, and then have absolutely no competition for kids under the age of 12 until March 17th, when Beauty and the Beast Comes out. Batman Lego is a lock for $250M, and our top 5.

If I had any guts, I would have dropped Beasts and picked Lego. Heck... if the community tells me it is not too late to do that, I may change my picks.

2. Strange Beasts. No brainer. Harry Potter fans number in millions, and they will all go see this movie, even if it isn't any good. They miss the Harry Potter world.

It is telling to me that you do not even know the title. Fantastic Beasts, not Strange Beasts.

And, for what it is worth, I agree that fans miss the Harry Potter world, but merely having magic does not make it the Harry Pottery world. We will not get any of the same characters and it won't even be set in the same time period. Fantastic Beasts is, in some ways, no more connected to Harry Potter than Dr. Strange is.

-Jason "the fact that Harry once read the book upon which this movie is based does not make this a Harry Potter movie in my opinion. I will happily wager with you on it making $250 mil (which would be the worst of any Potter movie)" Evans

[Udaman]

That would be an interesting bet....does Fantasitly Strange Beasts make north of $250M. I would vote yes...but what would the stakes be? Dinner for the next time one of us in Boston or Atlanta? Let's ponder.

And of course you can change your pick...it's not the deadline yet...and your the Mod! (and yes, Lego Batman is an absolute lock).

[luburch]

The trailers have failed to connect me to Newt Scamander or explain much of who he is. What are his motives? Is he the good guy or a little bit of a bad guy? The trailer seems to imply that it is his fault the magical creates have escaped into our world, I think. Other than "the magical creates have escaped," I have no idea what the plot of the film is. Are we just going to go from place to place trying to recapture the fantastic beats? Is there something larger at play here?

The cast lacks star power in a big, big way -- I think Eddie Redmayne is a wonderful actor, but he does not have the look of someone around whom you would choose to build a multi-billion dollar franchise. Colin Farrell is a good bad guy, I guess... he is the bad guy, right? It appears that way but the trailers have not shown me enough story to really know. Is he a muggle or a magician? I cannot tell from the trailers if the film has any romance or even a female character worth knowing. It certainly looks like there is no strong female role model like Hermione Granger.

Perhaps most importantly, other than the telltale Potter music, there just doesn't seem to be any connection at all to the Potter characters we know and love. I know it takes place well before Harry and his classmates are born, but is Dumbledore in the film? What about a young Hagrid or Voldemort? Heck, at least show me a young version of Harry's parents or something like that.

-Jason "my kids, who made us see every Potter movie on opening night and often went multiple times, say they don't really care whether they see this film. If the reviews and buzz is good, they'll see it but if not, they don't mind missing it" Evans

Well, the trailers can't exactly give away the entire plot, because then what is the point of seeing the movie. Personally, I always like to know as little as possible when going into a film.

Regarding your questions, though. Newt, will be viewed as a good guy by most I would imagine. He's certainly a bit eccentric and was expelled from Hogwarts before he worked for the Ministry in London.

I'm not sure how you can reasonably watch these two trailers and not have a semblance of the plot:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YdgQj7xcDJo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vso5o11LuGU

Newt's creatures escaped. The American ministry wants to get them back, because non-magic folk would be extremely confused. Farrell's character, as the previews show, is not only a wizard but works in the American ministry. He is tired of living in hiding and wants to weaponize Newt's creatures from what I can gather in those previews.

I'm about as big of an HP fan as you'll find, so I'm certainly biased, but I can't see how this movie does poorly. I imagine I'll see it twice, all the HP fans I know are dying to see it, everyone at HP World two weeks ago seemed rather excited for it. Anecdotal evidence, sure, but there seems to be quite a bit of excitement around it to me.

[Chicago 1995]

So, here are my picks in order of the boxoffice return I expect from them:

1. ...
2. Fantastic Beats - Wait a second, Jason. What is this film doing in your #5 spot? Well, I think the Harry Potter franchise has gotten a little long in the tooth. It has been 5+ years since Deathly Hallows pt 2 and the teens who grew up on Potter are now young adults who may have moved on to something different. I know the Fantastic Beats book was completely different from the other Potter books, but its sales are something like 1/20th of what any other Potter book has done. The trailers have not really impressed me all that much -- I can't tell if this story is funny or thrilling -- and it feels like there is barely any connection at all to the characters we grew to love in the original story. I came very close to leaving this off my top 5 altogether (Lego Batman would have replaced it), but I included it because it has a very favorable release date that will allow it to bask in multiple big moviegoing weekends while many of the other contenders are just not coming out at times where people go to a lot of movies. I'm betting it makes $200 million.

-Jason "a few days ago, I was all set to vote for the same 5 as everyone else, subbing Lego for Passengers... but I fear doing the obvious as that never seems to work. As an aside, I would love love love for Dark Tower to crash the party. Please be good!!" Evans

Seeing the crowds at Universal Studio's Wizarding World of Harry Potter -- I'd completely disagree with the idea that people have moved on. (And if you are a Potter fan, I'd highly recommend you go. So much fun.). I run in a different crowd than some here -- mean streets of Chicago's northern burbs -- but there's a ton of buzz about Fantastic Beasts in our circles and almost none for Lego Batman - and my kids LOVED the Lego Movie. I get that's a small sample size and doesn't mean a whole lot, but I can't help think it means something.

[brevity]

Regarding your questions, though. Newt, will be viewed as a good guy by most I would imagine. He's certainly a bit eccentric and was expelled from Hogwarts before he worked for the Ministry in London.

Then Dumbledore must love him. He kept Hagrid around even though he was (wrongly) expelled. He kept Trelawney around despite placing no value in her Divination classes. He excused the entire school of exams in the Goblet of Fire year. He left the school without explanation on numerous occasions. He was somewhat responsible for three Weasley brothers leaving the school, plus Harry and Hermione.

Look. Dolores Umbridge was a disagreeable person, but she wasn't wrong about the state of Hogwarts education. Dumbledore manipulated his headmaster position to achieve less-than-educational goals, and was totally guilty of cronyism. He was, essentially, building an army, even if he was mostly hoarding resources (the half-giant liaison, the woman with the prophecy, the Chosen One). And it's interesting that his legacy was a war that was actually staged on campus.

Albus Dumbledore: smart wizard, mostly good man, procrastinating educator, corrupt employer, crappy administrator, legal nightmare.

[JasonEvans]

Then Dumbledore must love him. He kept Hagrid around even though he was (wrongly) expelled. He kept Trelawney around despite placing no value in her Divination classes. He excused the entire school of exams in the Goblet of Fire year. He left the school without explanation on numerous occasions. He was somewhat responsible for three Weasley brothers leaving the school, plus Harry and Hermione.

Look. Dolores Umbridge was a disagreeable person, but she wasn't wrong about the state of Hogwarts education. Dumbledore manipulated his headmaster position to achieve less-than-educational goals, and was totally guilty of cronyism. He was, essentially, building an army, even if he was mostly hoarding resources (the half-giant liaison, the woman with the prophecy, the Chosen One). And it's interesting that his legacy was a war that was actually staged on campus.

Albus Dumbledore: smart wizard, mostly good man, procrastinating educator, corrupt employer, crappy administrator, legal nightmare.

You must spread some Comments around before commenting on brevity again.

Dude, that was awesome!!