Hurricane Matthew

[Olympic Fan]

I heard a weather expert talking about the potential for a loop last night on CNN (or was it MSNBC? I was switching back and forth).

He thought a loop was very likely, but didn't seem concerned -- he said that after looping over the relatively cold mid-Atlantic, it would be a mere Tropical Storm when it re-crossed its path.

[DUKIECB]

I heard a weather expert talking about the potential for a loop last night on CNN (or was it MSNBC? I was switching back and forth).

He thought a loop was very likely, but didn't seem concerned -- he said that after looping over the relatively cold mid-Atlantic, it would be a mere Tropical Storm when it re-crossed its path.

He is right and that is what the hurricane center is predicting to happen at this point. However, if it doesn't dissipate completely and stays on that path it will eventually re-enter warmer waters and has the potential to enter the gulf like Ivan did. Depending on the atmospheric conditions at that time (still a week away) re-strengthening could occur. The water in the gulf is warm and if the conditions were favorable it doesn't take storms long to ramp up considerably there.

Not saying it will happen but definitely a possibility.

[OldPhiKap]

A tropical storm can do a lot of damage.

A tropical storm hitting a place with saturated soils, weakened trees, debris in the streets, lack of power, sporatic utility service, and stretched/tired first responders can be very problematic.

Tough week to live in the Jacksonville-Daytona Beach corridor.

[Tripping William]

The 5:00 p.m. NOAA/NHC advisory (and attendant maps) have been posted. Looks like the storm has weakened a bit; they no longer explicitly reference it as being a Category 3, although they do say sustained winds are at 110 mph (which is Cat-3 territory). The pressure has come up a bit, to 948 mb. Tracking now due north, headed for Savannah, but still, currently, predicted to take a bit of a right turn and always to stay offshore.

Looks like Florida avoided the worst-case scenario, although I'd imagine things were still a rough ride today from Melbourne to Jacksonville.

[BigWayne]

As an armchair meteorologist and a veteran of hurricanes in my yout' in Charleston, I don't like what I see on the storm track. First, the storm is already west of Charleston (80th longitude). Second it has been heading NNW for the past couple of days. It needs to seriously bend to avoid making landfall in South Carolina and hitting North Carolina hard. Maybe the forecast bend will happen, but it hasn't occurred yet.

My brother will leave his sea island home and stay with Mom (>90), so I hope the family will be OK. And maybe this storm will bend out to sea.

South Carolina coast is definitely in a bit of danger. Until the last few hours, the storm has been consistently been staying to the east of the GFDL model. The last 6 hours or so, it is staying with the GFDL model. The GFDL model right now shows the center of the eye on the beach for about 60 miles centered on Charleston. Hopefully it will weaken a bit over the next few hours.

[BigWayne]

I think you bring up a very interesting point. I really enjoy studying weather, and am a big fan of following weather geeky stuff...you mention that you think they might skew the path of the storm
towards populated areas to get people to pay attention. I really don't think they do that, this is pretty scientific stuff and the guys who do the forecasting are dead serious and are judged
on their accuracy...but what you say is definitely plausible...I may have to investigate...I'd bet a modest sum they don't perform this skewage, but would love to know.

If you go to wunderground.com and look at the hurricane page and click on storm details, you will see a few paragraphs of text discussing the rationale for the forecasts ending with the data like below that gets put into those forecast maps:

Init 07/2100z 30.2n 80.7w 95 kt 110 mph
12h 08/0600z 31.7n 80.7w 90 kt 105 mph
24h 08/1800z 33.0n 79.0w 80 kt 90 mph
36h 09/0600z 33.8n 76.7w 65 kt 75 mph
48h 09/1800z 33.5n 75.0w 60 kt 70 mph
72h 10/1800z 30.0n 74.5w 40 kt 45 mph
96h 11/1800z 27.0n 76.0w 35 kt 40 mph
120h 12/1800z 26.0n 77.0w 30 kt 35 mph
$$

forecaster Avila

You will also see the forecaster's name. In this case Avila. Avila has been there a long time.

You used to have to know some obscure websites to be able to see these writeups and they were written with a lot of meteorologist lingo that the average person wouldn't be able to figure out. They were not used to the general public looking at this stuff. At that time, they would specifically mention that they would make the forecast with the goal of making sure people that needed to evacuate did so. I believe I recall him once referring to it as the forecast of least regret.

[BigWayne]

He is right and that is what the hurricane center is predicting to happen at this point. However, if it doesn't dissipate completely and stays on that path it will eventually re-enter warmer waters and has the potential to enter the gulf like Ivan did. Depending on the atmospheric conditions at that time (still a week away) re-strengthening could occur. The water in the gulf is warm and if the conditions were favorable it doesn't take storms long to ramp up considerably there.

Not saying it will happen but definitely a possibility.

It's possible, but extremely unlikely. I think the Nicole storm is messing up their models beyond a day or two. If Matthew starts to try to turn south, I think the interaction with Nicole will prevent it heading back to Florida and doing any damage. Of course, it's all just guessing.

[Newton_14]

Thanks for that! I was banging my head trying to remember the storm that made it to Canada and back! It was Ivan! Also I remember Charlie well. I had a golf tournament and it got cancelled and we had to play it a week later. Had my swing all dialed in and then could not hit the broadside of a barn the week later.

Charley was what I recalled as well, although that was not strictly a loop but rather a curve that had its vertex on Cuba and therefore hit a very large area of Florida.



As it happens, Frances and Jeanne both did the same thing, with their curves being centered on Florida.





The only one to complete the true loop was none other than Ivan, although it was no longer a hurricane when its remnants showed back up, and it hit different parts of the state.





Boy, I am glad the 2004 hurricane season is over.

[devildeac]

Here's another model:

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01614_5day.gif

[BigWayne]

Good news is that it turned away from the coast somewhat and is starting to weaken. Looks like Charleston won't get hit too badly, but it looks like a really wet day for football in the triangle area.

[Tripping William]

Anybody have a sense of conditions in the southern Sandhills? My son is supposed to play in a youth golf tournament down there tomorrow afternoon. Thinking it ain't gonna happen...

[diablesseblu]

Anybody have a sense of conditions in the southern Sandhills? My son is supposed to play in a youth golf tournament down there tomorrow afternoon. Thinking it ain't gonna happen...

Just talked to a friend who lives near there. They're getting some of the worst rain in the state, and its duration has been longer than for many of us near the coast. I cannot fathom (bad pun) how any tournament could be held tomorrow.

[Devilwin]

Flooding near Candor. Friend said they've had nearly nine inches so far there. Storm didn't do the early easterly move they predicted.. Prayers for all of our friends down east.

[wavedukefan70s]

We did ok in the charleston area.
Wasnt a picnic.wasnt hugo either.
Quite a few new roofs will be needed.power is back on for a lot of us.to be honest this storm was more stressful than hugo for me.
I had no one but me to take care of then.that being said.i would be happy never to be in a hurricane again.nothing compares to hearing a tree pop and wondering which end of the house to run too.

[-jk]

We did ok in the charleston area.
Wasnt a picnic.wasnt hugo either.
Quite a few new roofs will be needed.power is back on for a lot of us.to be honest this storm was more stressful than hugo for me.
I had no one but me to take care of then.that being said.i would be happy never to be in a hurricane again.nothing compares to hearing a tree pop and wondering which end of the house to run too.

Trees "popping" is a visceral childhood memory of ice storms in NC. Except it was more like a cannon... Scary nonetheless.

-jk

[Devilwin]

That much ballyhooed "turn to the east" never happened. Just glad we didn't get hit any worse than we did. Flooding will be an issue for several days however.
Gotta give the authorities credit, they were ready, and there's no telling how many people were not injured or worse because of the evac orders placed. All the meteorologists were talking about the turn ( a couple of models, however got the track right) and God knows what could have happened if many took the "not gonna be bad, I'll ride it out" attitude.

[rthomas]

The flooding in coastal NC looks really bad on the Weather Channel. Good luck to everyone down there. Thinking about my peeps in coastal NC and SC.

[Tripping William]

Golf tournament at Deercroft cancelled, not surprisingly.

[budwom]

wearing lime green pants is always a good idea if you think you need to be rescued...there IS a purpose to golf...

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If anyone has information or updates regarding Ocracoke Island, I would be appreciative