Lot of us fall in that category. Basically varying levels of guessing.
I can almost guarantee the actual track is going to be east of where the forecast is. The forecast is purposely skewed towards the highest concentration of people to get more compliance with evacuation goals.
In any event, my educated (to some degree) guess is that this thing is going to come scooting up the coast with the center staying between 30-50 miles offshore from Palm Beach all the way to Wilmington. The worst damage will happen in the Daytona Beach area, partly because of the timing of tides. I expect there will be a Weather Channel guy standing on the boardwalk in Daytona at sunrise if they aren't already there.
I don't believe any of the looping around and coming back to Florida plots and forecasts. I think it will go offshore somewhere between Charleston and Wilmington and head for Europe.
Any opinion of what it will be like in Orlando. Some of my wife's brasillian family are there. You don't get these things in Brazil so the whole family is going crazy!
Sage Grouse
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'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013
Shouldn't be too much cause for concern unless it intensifies a lot over the next few hours. They'll lose power and might have some damage depending on roof type/condition, or if they haven't boarded/shuttered windows and there's debris around. According to the most recent Melbourne, FL advisory they'll receive Hurricane force winds, but I'd expect them to be on the low side and Florida homes are built for them. Just hope for no tornadoes. That - or living in a mobile home, or doing something stupid like going outside during a lull/touching downed power lines while scavenging for neat traffic light souvenirs - is where the real danger lies.
Devastation in Haiti unfortunately. Death toll currently at 264. I have friends trying to book flights now to get there as soon as possible to help. I also have a coworker who was born and raised in South Haiti. He was trying all day to get a report/status on family members there but just not possible yet. The pictures coming out so far are terrible. The last thing that Country needed...
So some idiot in South Carolina arose yesterday and got on the road evacuating. (You won't believe where this is headed and ends!)... He apparently loses patience with the pace of the traffic evacuating, and apparently disagrees with the State on the spot where police are redirecting the traffic along the evacuation route. So what does he do?? gets out of his car, moves the cones and takes off down the empty road in the direction police were not allowing cars to travel. But wait, there's more! The cops chase him and he eventually ends up on a dead end road so they have him trapped. What does this genius do? Gets out of his car, and starts shooting at the police officers! Who of course return fire. Dude made it through the night and then died this morning...
So you start your day evacuating due to a hurricane.... Its nuts! This is just one of the dumbest things I have read in my life. Unreal!
AND PLEASE NO COMMENTARY ON POLICY OR GUN CONTROL OR ANYTHING OF THE NATURE IN REPLIES!
You can read about it on CNN's main article covering Matthew.
Link to a live Reddit thread with lots of updates and good links:
https://www.reddit.com/live/xpidtdeqm42u/
JBDuke
Andre Dawkins: “People ask me if I can still shoot, and I ask them if they can still breathe. That’s kind of the same thing.”
I am in Hillsboro Beach and relocated to a friend west of 95 to get off the beach. As it turns out I had no need to leave. This morning it is uvercast with 5 to 10 MPH breezes. The parking lot and the top over the carports for the building are bone dry. Matthew, in this area, was more bust than boom.