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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by DUKIECB View Post
    Good news for NC coastal areas as the updated track has shifted significantly to the east by the weekend. Florida is still on alert as any fluctuation to the west at all will have the storm making landfall there.
    Yep!!! I am once again making my plans to be at the game this weekend.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #22
    I'm really hoping this storm stays east. My mom is in south Florida, north of Miami, and the track is uncomfortably close to her right now.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    I'm really hoping this storm stays east. My mom is in south Florida, north of Miami, and the track is uncomfortably close to her right now.
    I know that feeling.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Chance of rain in Derm on Saturday down to 60% from 90-100% estimations from yesterday.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Santa Cruz CA
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Latest projection is moving Matthew a bit more to the east, which is good, but still landfall along the Outer Banks still very possible.
    I mentioned Hazel. I don't recall it, was only two, but old timers speak in quiet, reserved terms of that beast. She was more powerful than Matthew will be when she hit.
    Nearly destroyed our coastline. Long Beach, for example, saw only five of 357 structures still standing after she left! Authorities said that everything from the Cape Fear River to the SC/NC line was wiped clean, like the hand of God...
    I saw the area in TX where Alicia (1983) came ashore a few months later. It was kinda like that. For a mile or two, the only human evidence other than the road was a few stilts where houses used to be.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Santa Cruz CA
    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    Here's an interesting site for storm tracking: http://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

    My buddy who is a physical oceanographer says the GFDL ensemble is usually the most reliable.

    Howard
    Thanks for that link. Really great site. I have been watching these plots and the discussions the NOAA people post for about 20 years now, way before they were easy to find on the internet like they are now. Used to have to get them from odd places, like the University of Hawaii website.

    GFDL is the best one to look at. However, the most important thing is when most of the models you see here generally agree, you can expect the actual track to be pretty close to the middle of what they show. That's the case for Matthew to rake the coast of Florida the next couple days.

    This one is very odd in that it is predicted to run almost exactly up the coastline from Palm Beach to Wilmington. A few miles to either side will make a huge difference in the impact, and also in the future progress. If it goes a bit west and goes over land in south Florida, the impact there will be huge, but it likely reduces the impacts further north. A bit to the east and it will likely damage a much larger area, but not as badly in any one spot.

    Also, the current GFDL track has Nassau taking a pretty direct hit. Glad Duke isn't scheduled to play there this year.

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Latest has the storm grazing SC, then heading east. NC gets spared for the most part, but the beaches will see 50-80 mph wind and 3-6 inches of rain. Raleigh Durham area around two inches of rain, Greensboro less than an inch. Just got this info from Fox 8 ten minutes ago.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I am no hurricane expert, but it sure looks like a lot of these tracking forecasts have the storm grazing Florida/Ga/Carolina and then heading east, out to sea... but they then see it turning southwest and heading back toward Florida. This could be one of those rare double-dippers that wallops some place like West Palm or Daytona twice!

    Nasty!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #29
    They have also slowed the passage of the storm -- earlier models had it hitting or grazing the NC coast at dawn Saturday, which would have put it in position to punish the Triangle by late afternoon.

    Now the projections have it off Charleston, SC at 2 p.m. Saturday -- even if it doesn't turn east, it's not likely to hit the Triangle until Sunday.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northwest NC
    The pressure dropped 21 mb from 961 to 940 from 11pm last night to 8am this morning. That is significant and a sure sign Matthew is rapidly intensifying. It will be interesting to see if that trend continues when the 11am update is released. The wind speed in a hurricane usually lags somewhat behind the pressure dropping so it would not surprise me to see the winds increase further. Also, it still has 12-16 hours of time over very warm water with very little land interaction to continue to strengthen. If the track is west of where they think by even 20 miles this could be devastating.

    Almost the entire east coast of Florida could be in for a rough ride. We are talking about a potential upper level cat 4 hurricane buzzing an area of coast line over 300 miles long.
    "The future ain't what it used to be."

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    The GFDL model is a real disaster. It tracks the entire Southeast coast from just north of Miami to the North Carolina line. Moreover, the heaviest part of the storm is the northeast quadrant that blows directly on shore with its counter-clockwise winds. I hope there is a move to sea, as does my family in Charleston.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    This is bizarro:


    https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01614_5day.gif

    Look closely at the "predictions" for Monday and Tuesday of next week.
    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    This is bizarro:


    https://icons.wunderground.com/data/...01614_5day.gif

    Look closely at the "predictions" for Monday and Tuesday of next week.
    Yeah, I have heard grumblings that Matthew might come back for a second run at FL. That just doesn't seem fair.

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Yeah, I have heard grumblings that Matthew might come back for a second run at FL. That just doesn't seem fair.
    Latest predictions by the various models--



    It does seem like Matthew is tracking a shade more to the east then the early morning model runs expected, which may spare Florida a little bit on its first pass. Also, the experts are saying there is a good bit of high altitude wind shear around the time Matthew is expected to make its turn back to the SW for its second shot at Florida. If that happens, we may see it go all the way down to just a tropical storm and not be a hurricane any longer.

    -Jason "it may sound like I know what I am talking about, but I don't" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Jason "it may sound like I know what I am talking about, but I don't" Evans
    This is new? 😁😎

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    This is new? 😁😎
    Yes, I just sporked Indoor for nailing me
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Latest predictions by the various models--



    It does seem like Matthew is tracking a shade more to the east then the early morning model runs expected, which may spare Florida a little bit on its first pass. Also, the experts are saying there is a good bit of high altitude wind shear around the time Matthew is expected to make its turn back to the SW for its second shot at Florida. If that happens, we may see it go all the way down to just a tropical storm and not be a hurricane any longer.

    -Jason "it may sound like I know what I am talking about, but I don't" Evans
    I dunno, the center of the Amorphous Cone of Possibility still has places like Daytona/Melbourne pretty much lined up...gonna be interesting to watch, Jim Cantore is in seventh heaven...I suspect some place in Florida
    is going to take a lashing...

  18. #38
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Atlanta, GA
    You know it's bad when Disney World is closed.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by wilson View Post
    You know it's bad when Disney World is closed.
    I wouldn't get worried until the local Waffle House closes (although apparently those in mandatory evacuation areas will briefly close). The Waffle House index has been in use for years.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    If devildeac is wearing his kilt to the football game Saturday, someone please warn him about updrafts. No offense, but he's no Marylin Monroe.
    “That’s just, like, your opinion, man.”

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