MLB: 2016 Postseason

[Olympic Fan]

Having just watched Pedro Martinez's excellent interview of Bib Papi and observing the feel-good farewell tour, I have to think that Ortiz is going to break the known steroid user barrier in the HOF. At that point, how do you continue to keep other players out? Not saying it's right or wrong, but I think it will happen.

I brought this up a couple of months ago ... it's almost like there is a conspiracy to avoid mentioning Big Papi's connection to PEDs -- much stronger evidence than haunted Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell for so long.

I was happy to see the Indians squeak out a win in Game One of the ALDS, thanks to some heroic work from their bullpen (Miller and Allen each through 40 pitches). That's going to be tough to sustain.

Epic meltdown by the Rangers at home ... just one game, but that's got to hurt.

Four games Friday ... I'm salivating over the Scherzer-Kershaw matchup in Washington Friday night.

[luvdahops]

Isn't Game Two Saturday?

That's two days rest ... maybe if it were game seven of the World Series, but I very much doubt that the Giants use Bumgarner on two days this early in the NLDS. Maybe if there is a rainout and he can pitch Sunday on three days rest.

As it now stands, I think there is a safe bet he pitches Monday in Game Three on four days rest ... then if necessary, you can try the two-days rest thing for Game Five on Thursday. More likely, they start Moore in a game five and have Madbum ready to pitch long relief (as he did in Game 7 of the 2014 world series).

You are correct. Brain fart on my fart. Happy about this one, though 😀.

[Troublemaker]

I was happy to see the Indians squeak out a win in Game One of the ALDS, thanks to some heroic work from their bullpen (Miller and Allen each through 40 pitches). That's going to be tough to sustain.

Yes, and with Kluber fresh off a quad injury, it's hard to know whether he'll have the stamina to last deep into Game 2. Still, I'd have to say it was worth it for the Indians to use up Miller and Allen like that. They are now 1-0 with possibly 2 Kluber starts remaining, assuming no setbacks today. (I have to think if Kluber looks good today, he would bump Bauer for the Game 5 start.)

Man, the Indians have been rocked by injury, though. Their #2 (Carrasco) and #3 (Salazar) starters are done, and we'll find out about their #1 today. If they had all those guys healthy, I'd probably make them the AL favorites. That said, they may yet win the pennant anyway. 1-0 in the ALDS is a good start.

[Mal]

But the deciding factor was that that Bumgarner went nine innings vs. seven innings for Thor. ERA matters, but so does innings pitched. Strikeouts can impact a pitcher's ERA, but aren't in themselves valuable (low strikeouts and low ERA are much better than high strikeouts and higher ERA; plus high strikeouts inflate the pitch count, making it tougher for for high strikeout pitchers to go more innings).

Yeah, I didn't quite get the Mets' swing early and swing often approach the other night. The book on the Giants is get to the bullpen, so letting Bumgarner get through the first three innings on 20 pitches or whatever it was seemed rather dumb. If he's just absolutely pounding the strike zone and you have to swing, fine, but still, make him throw a couple.

I can almost guarantee that won't be the Cubs' approach Monday night. If Bumgarner is going to throw a first pitch fastball down the middle every time to get ahead in the count, Soler and Bryant may be told to go ahead and try to drill one, but everyone else will be trying to work deep counts, and Rizzo will be up there trying to foul off as many as possible. That's been one of the biggest strengths of the Cubs this year, wearing out starters and then jumping on bullpens in the 7th and 8th.

One advantage of the Cubs roster is that, with both Zobrist and Fowler being switch hitters, they can potentially have Rizzo as the sole left-handed bat in a lineup against Bumgarner. I would expect to see Zobrist in right instead of Heyward (who would likely be totally helpless against Bumgarner this year), Baez at 2nd, Soler in left, and Contreras or Ross catching Monday. That's huge, given his funky delivery that totally flummoxes lefties. His splits aren't extreme - he's very, very effective against righties, too - but it certainly helps.

[Olympic Fan]

I can almost guarantee that won't be the Cubs' approach Monday night. If Bumgarner is going to throw a first pitch fastball down the middle every time to get ahead in the count, Soler and Bryant may be told to go ahead and try to drill one, but everyone else will be trying to work deep counts, and Rizzo will be up there trying to foul off as many as possible. That's been one of the biggest strengths of the Cubs this year, wearing out starters and then jumping on bullpens in the 7th and 8th.

One advantage of the Cubs roster is that, with both Zobrist and Fowler being switch hitters, they can potentially have Rizzo as the sole left-handed bat in a lineup against Bumgarner. I would expect to see Zobrist in right instead of Heyward (who would likely be totally helpless against Bumgarner this year), Baez at 2nd, Soler in left, and Contreras or Ross catching Monday. That's huge, given his funky delivery that totally flummoxes lefties. His splits aren't extreme - he's very, very effective against righties, too - but it certainly helps.

That all sounds good ... except that Bumgarner was 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA against the Cubs this year. And a year ago (against a very similar Chicago lineup), he was 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA.

I agree that the key is to make him throw a lot of pitches and get into the very suspect San Francisco bullpen.

But even with the edge in matchups, I wouldn't be all that optimistic about doing a lot of damage to Bumgarner himself.

[gurufrisbee]

Personally rooting this round for:

Cubs
Blue Jays
Indians
Giant sink hole (LA/Wash is like rooting for a UConn/Kentucky college hoops game)

[YmoBeThere]

Personally rooting this round for:

Dodgers
Blue Jays
Indians
Giants in a sinkhole (Bay area teams versus anyone is like rooting for UNC in anything)

Fixed it for you...

[CDu]

It is a game of who will blink first in Chicago. Lester and Cueto have been dealing through 7. Lester is about 22 pitches below Cueto, who might be done with his spot due up this inning. Check that - Cueto will pitch the 8th after batting with two outs. Bold call - he is at 99 pitches, but with the bottom of the Cubs' lineup coming.

[CDu]

Decision to keep Cueto in proves costly, as Baez takes a 3-2 pitch yard. If the Giants are to win, they will have to get to Chapman in the 9th.

[CDu]

Holy wow! Posey came about 5-10 feet (heightwise) from tying the game up in the 9th. But, alas, it went for a 2-out double, and he was stranded.

It was a well-pitched game, with no walks and only a handful of well-hit balls. Tough loss for the Giants. Big win for the Cubs. We will see if their other Cy Young candidate can match what Lester did.

[Troublemaker]

Holy wow! Posey came about 5-10 feet (heightwise) from tying the game up in the 9th. But, alas, it went for a 2-out double, and he was stranded.

It was a well-pitched game, with no walks and only a handful of well-hit balls. Tough loss for the Giants. Big win for the Cubs. We will see if their other Cy Young candidate can match what Lester did.

I love these pitchers' duels. The Giants must be kicking themselves for losing a leadoff runner twice in the early innings, once on a steal attempt and once on a great designed pickoff play by the Cubs, catcher to first. (That Cubs catcher has quite an arm.) And if Posey had more power, Maddon would've been kicking himself for not sending out Lester in the 9th having only thrown 86 pitches. Obviously Chapman is a great closer but the way Lester was rolling, I'm sure Giants fans were happy with the pitching change despite having to go against the fireballing closer. Part of Maddon's calculation, I'm sure, was that he wanted Lester to pitch on short rest in Game 4 if needed, and Hendricks can then pitch Game 5 if needed. But I think that's a pitching change you make if you're leading 3-0 in the 9th instead of just 1-0. In the end, though, Posey didn't have the power to homer Chapman's mistake and he was stranded after a double, like you said.

[Olympic Fan]

Some great pitching Friday -- Lester for sure ... Cueto, even in the loss ... Kluber was great for the Indian ... Happ was pretty good for the Blue Jays.

The one disappointment was the Scherzer-Kershaw matchup.

I was hoping for a gem, but Scherzer was bombed early (but he did bounce back and pitch well late, saving the Nats' bullpen) and Kershaw barely shaped through five innings, giving up three runs.

I mentioned before the playoffs that Kershaw needed a strong postseason to solidify his argument as the greatest pitcher in modern times. Well, he got his third postseason win, but his postseason ERA actually got WORSE (now 4.65).

He almost certainly gets another start (unless the Nats sweep the next three games ... if the Dodgers sweep, he starts Game 1 of the NLCS).

[CDu]

Cubs did what they had to do: took both home games to take the pressure off for game 3 (the Bumgarner start). Losing either of those two at home would put them in a bind, needing either to win against Bumgarner or to then win games 4 and 5. Thankfully for this Cubs fan, they now get three chances to win one. Obviously I would prefer the sweep, but hopefully they can close it out in San Fran one way or the other.

In the meantime, I would just like to get my power back. That said, I feel blessed to be able to communicate still, and feel bad for those closer to the coast who have it much worse.

[Troublemaker]

Even though the Cubs lost Game 3 after Chapman blew the save in the 8th inning, I thought it was important that Kris Bryant homered in the 9th to take it into extra innings. It sent a message to both themselves and the Giants that, "We're not heartbroken. We're going to keep coming." They're up 2 games to 1 and they probably have pitching advantages in Games 4 and 5, albeit slight. How about that Conor Gillaspie drilling a 103 mph pitch for the tying and go-ahead runs for the Giants?

In the AL, the Indians completed an impressive sweep of the Red Sox, who many thought were the second-best team in the playoffs behind the Cubs.

[Olympic Fan]

Interesting that Bumgarner wasn't superhuman in his start Monday night. Does he have another postseason miracle in him -- like maybe a long relief stint in a potential Game 5 in Chicago?

Tonight, Kershaw gets another chance to make a memorable postseason start. At some point, his postseason mediocrity has to offset to some degree his regular season excellence. It's almost like he's Peyton Manning while Madison Bumgarner is Tom Brady.

[CDu]

Even though the Cubs lost Game 3 after Chapman blew the save in the 8th inning, I thought it was important that Kris Bryant homered in the 9th to take it into extra innings. It sent a message to both themselves and the Giants that, "We're not heartbroken. We're going to keep coming." They're up 2 games to 1 and they probably have pitching advantages in Games 4 and 5, albeit slight. How about that Conor Gillaspie drilling a 103 mph pitch for the tying and go-ahead runs for the Giants?

In the AL, the Indians completed an impressive sweep of the Red Sox, who many thought were the second-best team in the playoffs behind the Cubs.

Just to be clear, Cubs fans don't feel all that great about having the pitching advantage in games 4 and 5. We only have to look back to 2003, when we were up 3-1 going into game 5 of the NLCS vs Florida. We had Mark Prior and Kerry Wood lined up for games 6 and 7, so the conventional wisdom was that game 5 was like playing with house money.

Well, we lost game 5, and everything looked great in game 6 until... well, we all know what happened.

Losing that game last night after being up 3 and knocking Bumgarner around early hurts, no way around it. I doubt many Cubs fans are feeling all that comfy right now. As we speak, it's 1-1 in the 4th, and I'm very nervous. If this goes to game 5, there is a TON of pressure on the Cubs, at home, in an elimination game. And there will be zero pressure on the Giants. That's not where I want to be at all.

[CDu]

And feeling far less comfortable down 3-1 in the 4th with threats still there. That 2-run HR by Bryant last night is feeling awfully empty right now.

[Olympic Fan]

Interesting that the Dodgers win Kershaw's start again, but once again, he is less than dominating, charged with five runs in 6 2/3 innings.

Actually,three of them scored after he left the game, but he did leave the bases loaded for his successor. And for the second time in this postseason, his career postseason ERA climb again (it's almost 5.00)

At least the NLDS moves back to Washington for a game five ... just waiting to see if the Cubs-Giants do the same.

BTW: Watching the playoffs is a lot less stressful when your team is not involved.

[CDu]

BTW: Watching the playoffs is a lot less stressful when your team is not involved.

As a Cub fan, I can confirm this is factually correct.

[Troublemaker]

Just to be clear, Cubs fans don't feel all that great about having the pitching advantage in games 4 and 5. We only have to look back to 2003, when we were up 3-1 going into game 5 of the NLCS vs Florida. We had Mark Prior and Kerry Wood lined up for games 6 and 7, so the conventional wisdom was that game 5 was like playing with house money.

Well, we lost game 5, and everything looked great in game 6 until... well, we all know what happened.

Losing that game last night after being up 3 and knocking Bumgarner around early hurts, no way around it. I doubt many Cubs fans are feeling all that comfy right now. As we speak, it's 1-1 in the 4th, and I'm very nervous. If this goes to game 5, there is a TON of pressure on the Cubs, at home, in an elimination game. And there will be zero pressure on the Giants. That's not where I want to be at all.

Oh yeah. I was really only referring to the players themselves. I'm sure Cubs FANS are pooping their pants about not closing out the Giants when Chicago had a golden opportunity to do so last night.