MLB: 2016 Regular Season

[Bob Green]

Opening Day! Cardinals play the Pirates in Pittsburgh at 1 pm.

[weezie]

Play ball!

I need a break from bad calls by basketball refs. Time to flex for bad calls from umpires.

[Olympic Fan]

I'm pumped for the new season -- even if my Yankees are one of the most fragile teams in baseball starting the season.

Our starting lineup, our rotation and our bullpen look very good on paper, but ...

-- We have one of the oldest starting lineups in baseball. Will McCann, Texeira and A-Roid still be able to play at a high level? Was last year just a bad year or is Beltran aging out? Which Gardner-Ellsbery will we see -- the all-star quality guys who played the first half of last season or the useless, injured guys who finished the season?

-- Will the glass arms of our rotation hold together. If they are healthy, Tanaka, Eovaldi and Pineda are terrific ... all missed time last season with injury. Sabathia looked to be done last year, then he finished up with a very strong month ... then he went into rehab. Nova has been crippled for two years. Only the kid, Severino, doesn't have injury issues.

-- We'll have to wait 30 games to see "the greatest closing trio ever assembled" -- when Chapman comes off suspension. Until then we still have last year's fabulous closing duo of Bettances and Miller (although Miller will be pitching with bone chip in his non-pitching wrist). Will they make up for the question marks we have in middle relief?

If everything goes right, I could see the Yankees winning the AL East and being a viable postseason contender. If the age and injuries catch up to use, I could see us finishing last in the division. But I suspect a lot of teams could say the same. That's the beauty of opening day -- there is always mystery and hope.

I think the AL East is wide, WIDE open. The Red Sox finished last a year ago, but spent a ton in the off-season and seem to be slightly favored by most media sources. The Blue Jays won the division with a great second half last season, but seem to have taken a step back (switching Price from Toronto to Boston is a big move). Tampa Bay has some good young talent ... I thought Baltimore had the worst offseason and they are my pick for last, but this division is so wide open that probably means they win it.

One team in the other league I'll be watching closely will be the Cardinals. A great organization that consistently survives off-season losses and remains competitive. But they also had a terrible off-season and now they're playing in the best division in baseball -- the Cubs are rising and the Pirates remain very strong. Will this be the year the Cardinals drop off?

And will the underachieving Nats live up to their potential a year late? The Mets remain a major obstacle, but except maybe for Miami, the rest of the division is in the toilet.

So much to look forward to. Play ball!

[devildeac]

Have the Braves been eliminated yet?

[duke74]

Opening Day! Cardinals play the Pirates in Pittsburgh at 1 pm.

Yay...love this thread opening. Especially with windy, 37 degree weather here in NYC.

LGM! Interesting start to the season tonight v the Royals...and more interesting in the third game with Thor (Noah) on the mound. Retaliation for the WS pitch?

[Olympic Fan]

Interesting piece on ESPN (insider, so I can't link) projecting the incoming season.

The predictions aren't all that interesting in themselves (about what you'd expect), but the author raises an interesting point -- the difference between the two leagues.

The National League includes (by ESPN's measure) the six strongest teams in baseball (and seven of the top eight) ... along with the six weakest teams in baseball.

So a huge gap between the top (Cubs, Mets, Nats, Cards, Dodgers, Giants and No. 8 Pirates) and the dregs (Braves, Phillies, Reds, Padres)

On the other hand, the American League appears to be wonderfully balanced. ESPN projects just a nine-game difference between the best team in the league and the worst. They have the Astros finishing with the best record in the AL -- with just 86 wins.

That should make for a very interesting season ... what's really interesting to me is that the seven super powers in the NL are fighting for the five postseason spots (and it would be a shock if any other team cracked that competition), while almost every team in the AL starts with a realistic chance as at least a wild card.

[Reilly]

... I thought Baltimore had the worst offseason and they are my pick for last, but this division is so wide open that probably means they win it. ...

That would be the Baltimore club with more wins since 2012 than any other AL East team, and as many playoff appearances? Don't think any/many thought Wieters, O'Day, and Chris Davis would be back, much less all three, so keeping that core (along with Machado and Jones) may pay off, and Showalter is a tremendous manager.

[Olympic Fan]

That would be the Baltimore club with more wins since 2012 than any other AL East team, and as many playoff appearances? Don't think any/many thought Wieters, O'Day, and Chris Davis would be back, much less all three, so keeping that core (along with Machado and Jones) may pay off, and Showalter is a tremendous manager.

Love you optimism ... don't blame me if I don't share it. The Orioles did do a good job of holding on to their core this off-season, especially since many thought Davis and Wieters would be gone.

The trouble is that the Oriole' core won 81 games a year ago -- finishing dead last in the AL East in OPS-plus (despite hitting a ton of home runs) and next to last (to a Red Sox staff that seriously upgraded in the off-season) in ERA. To me (and others I respect) the Orioles did little to upgrade in the off-season. Mark Trumbo? A fading Gallardo? The loss of Chen (last years top starter) suggests the weak rotation will even worse this season.

Vegas rates the Orioles fourth in the AL East at 22-1 odds ... behind Boston (6-1), Toronto (6-1) and New York (10-1) .. ahead of Tampa Bay (25-1):

http://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/odds/futures/

Sports Illustrated projects the Orioles to finish with 69 wins ... I think that is a little harsh, but I'd be surprised if they top last year's total of 81:

http://www.si.com/mlb/2016/03/21/bal...eason-preview#

Hey, when I posted the disparaging remarks, I admitted that I could be wrong (I joked that by picking them last in the AL East, they'd probably win it). But my low opinion of the Orioles' chances is hardly a minority opinion.

[Reilly]

Love you optimism ... But my low opinion of the Orioles' chances is hardly a minority opinion.

Oh, I don't think my expectation (or post) is optimistic. There are serious concerns with the Orioles' starting pitching. That said, there is a little bit of Rodney Dangerfield/Duke football/no respect thing going on with the Orioles the past four years. Nobody in the AL East has won more games than them. Nobody in the AL East has been to the playoffs more than them. I'd be curious -- if you can find it -- to see some site's pre-season predicted win total going in to each of the past four seasons. The Orioles really are similar to Duke football over these past four years: a shrewd, experienced head coach, and a core of likeable, hard-working players who the pundits generally undervalue. Maybe the pundits are right this year -- not really expressing an opinion on that -- but I think (don't know for sure) the pundits have been generally wrong about the Orioles lately.

[JasonEvans]

One team in the other league I'll be watching closely will be the Cardinals. A great organization that consistently survives off-season losses and remains competitive. But they also had a terrible off-season and now they're playing in the best division in baseball -- the Cubs are rising and the Pirates remain very strong. Will this be the year the Cardinals drop off?

I'll go on the record right now saying the Cards finish below .500 this season.

--Jason "oh, and opening day in Yankee stadium... snowed out. Wow!" Evans

[Mal]

I'll go on the record right now saying the Cards finish below .500 this season.

I wouldn't go that far, given that while they're sharing a division with Chicago and Pittsburgh, nearly a quarter of their schedule shows games with the Brewers and the Reds.

That said, losing Heyward may be a big deal for this team. It always struck me as odd to have him batting second and Carpenter leading off, but in any case they've lost their #2 guy in the lineup and are relying on Pham (now hurt for two weeks right off the bat) stepping up into that spot. They also need Holliday, who's 36 and in decline statistically, to stay healthy and productive, they're putting a lot of faith in Grichuck becoming a legitimate cleanup guy, and they need Piscotty/Wong/Peralta/Molina to not fall off and Gyorko to be good. Those all sound like reasonable bets individually, but it's unlikely that all of them work out. Combine that with a likely regression to mean in relationship of WHIP and runs allowed from a couple of the starting pitchers (possibly countered by a full season of Wainright, of course), and I think it likely the Cards take a step back. Not from being a hundred game winner to .500, though.

All that said, there are plenty of pitfalls for the Cubs (was that the real Jake Arrieta and how tired is he? does Lackey have anything left in the tank? is Schwarber a NL player? will Bryant have a sophomore slump? will Russell? bullpen? can they somehow not implode from the pressure of expectations that this is the year to break the curse?), too, and the Pirates rotation is likely to see a dropoff from recent years. So, I could see St. Louis winning the division yet again, too.

[Bob Green]

I'll go on the record right now saying the Cards finish below .500 this season.

I'll go on the record right now saying Jason Evans will be wrong.

The Cardinals have a tough task in front of them competing with the Cubs and Pirates but I'm not seeing a losing season. Injuries mounted throughout the season in 2015 with 2016 looking as it will be the same; however, the Cardinals have depth and are one of the best organizations in MLB. They will persevere.

[duke74]

--Jason "oh, and opening day in Yankee stadium... snowed out. Wow!" Evans

Actually, Jason, it's the rain up here. No snow today. Same result though.

Anyhow the real NYC team is in KC starting the season badly. (Sorry, OF) LGM!

[Reilly]

... I'd be curious -- if you can find it -- to see some site's pre-season predicted win total going in to each of the past four seasons. The Orioles really are similar to Duke football over these past four years: a shrewd, experienced head coach, and a core of likeable, hard-working players who the pundits generally undervalue ...

SI has a nice vault with all old past issues. Over the past four years, the O's have not finished 4th or 5th, despite being predicted to do so 3 out of the 4 years. Last year's prediction was the only one that got the place right, so maybe SI gets it right two years in a row.

2012, SI, on p. 86, predicts 63 wins (I think, hard to read), 5th place … Orioles won 93 games (+30 wins over prediction), finished 2nd

http://www.si.com/vault/issue/1009531/86/2

2013, SI, on p. 73, predicts 82 wins, 4th place … Orioles won 85 games (+3 over prediction), finished 3d

http://www.si.com/vault/issue/1010898/73/2

2014, SI, on p. 74, predicts 78 wins, 4th place … Orioles won 96 games (+18 over prediction), finished 1st

http://www.si.com/vault/issue/1012605/74/2

2015, SI, on p. 84, predicts 82 wins, 3d place … Orioles won 81 games (-1 under prediction), finished 3d

http://www.si.com/vault/issue/1015939/84/2

[crimsondevil]

On the other hand, the American League appears to be wonderfully balanced. ESPN projects just a nine-game difference between the best team in the league and the worst. They have the Astros finishing with the best record in the AL -- with just 86 wins.

These kinds of team-by-team projections are most likely going to be close-to-correct for some, but others will undoubtedly over/underperform. Thus it's not going to give an accurate range of records for the league as a whole. It's pretty unlikely the whole AL is within 9 games at the end of the season, as is the top team finishing with only 86 wins.
(The last time a league leader won that few - excluding strike years - was the NL in 1959 in a 154-game schedule and 8 teams - and technically, the Dodgers that year won 88, since they tied with the Braves with 86 and played a best-of-3 playoff, which counted as regular season stats). http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/NL/

[DukieInKansas]

Actually, Jason, it's the rain up here. No snow today. Same result though.

Anyhow the real NYC team is in KC starting the season badly. (Sorry, OF) LGM!

Although I loved the outcome of the game last night and the pregame celebrations, it just seemed wrong to do most of it when KC played the Mets last night. (And again on Tuesday whent the team receives their rings. I am waiting for Karma to bite them in the behind.

The first pitch was an interesting process and a fundraiser for MLB Urban Youth Baseball Academy. For a donation, you got to stand in the line from Union Station, past the Negro League Baseball Museum, and on to Kauffman Stadium. It took around 4 hours, had over 2000 participants, went 9-10 miles before delivering the ball to the stadium. I thought it was a really neat idea.

[CDu]

I am a lifelong, die-hard Cubs fan... and I agree with Bob Green that I can't see the Cards having a losing season.

For one thing, they have two absolute doormats within the division. For another, their pitching should be healthier this year than last.

I don't think they will be as good as the Cubs, but I certainly don't think they will be bad. I think they stand a strong chance of winning a Wild Card spot, and a not-insignificant chsnce at the division title.

It certainly didn't help that the Cubs added a #3 starter who was St Louis' #2 last year, snd it definitely hurt that the Cubs took their best hitter. But I think they will still be in the playoff hunt this year.

[BeachBlueDevil]

Have the Braves been eliminated yet?

They have the Nationls a good game and lost in extras by a run. That's how most of this season will go... So in short, yea they have been eliminated.

[Olympic Fan]

They have the Nationls a good game and lost in extras by a run. That's how most of this season will go... So in short, yea they have been eliminated.

That's an odd way of describing Monday's loss -- to me. it looked like they choked away a win -- blowing a one-run lead in the top of the ninth, then losing in 10.

Not eliminated yet, but on the clock.

[throatybeard]

I'll go on the record right now saying the Cards finish below .500 this season.

I'm thinking something like 80-85 wins. The team is already nearly as injured as it was late in the year last year, and the guys in their 30s are all a year older.

I'd have to look it up but I think the last losing record was in 1990.