Originally Posted by
CDu
With the 2016 NBA Finals now complete, the second season begins. The Offseason (draft and free agency) provide teams a chance to change their fortunes. For the most part, it is all movement around the margins. But every so often something big happens. This offseason, some of the big storylines will be:
1. What does Kevin Durant do? Does he stick it out in OKC for one year (with option)? Does he sign a short-term deal with the Warriors? Does he go home and sign a max deal to play with John Wall and Brad Beal in Washington? The decision by Durant will likely have major implications on who wins the title next year.
2. What does LeBron do? The obvious answer here is "stay home". Yes, he won a title and fulfilled his promise to Cleveland. Does he decide that he's done enough for the city and go elsewhere as a "screw you" to Dan Gilbert? Highly doubtful. I think he's locked in to stay home at this point, and he knows he has a team good enough to win for a few more years.
3. What does Golden State do? They have two pending restricted free agents in Barnes and Ezeli. Both were (perhaps still are?) set to make substantial raises this summer. However, both got glaringly exposed for their limitations in this series. If the Warriors let them both walk, they will have enough money to legitimately pursue Durant. If they retain either player by matching another team's offer, it limits what they can do. And signing either guy will make it that much harder on them financially when their stars come up for new deals. I suspect they let both guys walk. I think Barnes' production could be replaced by a ring-chasing wing willing to take the minimum (a la Richard Jefferson this year for the Cavs), and Ezeli played such a small role that his loss won't be noticed.
4. Can any other teams make the jump? Here's where Durant's decision is interesting. If he stays in OKC, the Thunder remain a viable threat for a title (they actually looked better against the Warriors than the Cavs did minus one game). If he goes to Washington, that team (with Wall, Beal, Porter, and Gortat) becomes an interesting challenger for the Cavs. If he goes to Golden State the Warriors obviously become prohibitive favorites again. Outside of Washington, I can't see another team threatening the top 3 (Cleveland, Golden State, OKC). The Clippers can't shoot enough and aren't versatile enough defensively, the Spurs are just too old at key spots (even without Duncan), don't have enough depth of talent. The Raptors weren't good enough before, and they may lose DeRozan and Biyombo.
Other free agents of note after Durant include DeRozan, Dwight Howard, Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside and Mike Conley. There are a bunch of others, but those are the major names.