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  1. #1
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    Winter Box Office Contest a Possiblility?

    Across the street from my office is a small movie theater, that for over a year has sat empty. The sign at some point changed from "closed" to "available for private showings" a few months ago, but mostly advertised for a larger theater in town that the same people own.
    Last week, finally, those signs were replaced with "Now Showing" notices, and I saw a bus full of kids being unloaded for a matinee.

    And then there's this bit of good news, as A Quiet Place Part II is turning a profit in the theaters.
    Still, though, it made good money, and now it has continued to make money over the last few weeks. In fact, it has now much so much money that A Quiet Place Part II is officially the first movie to cross $100 million at the U.S. box office during “the pandemic era.”
    So with things looking up, is there a chance we'll have a Winter contest this year? I haven't even looked to see what's coming out, and I know movies are still being shuffled to further dates, but I am guessing the competition will be normal enough to make it happen.

    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/quie...222400388.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #2
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    They still make movies? I thought we were just doing premium subscription miniseries now.

  3. #3
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    Yeah, it is too late to try for the summer contest and the summer schedule is still a bit spotty to make the contest much fun.

    The winter does seem like a reasonable time to get things moving against. The mixing of streaming with regular theatrical release will make it a real challenge. I mean, how do you deal with films like Matrix 4 and Dune which are going to get simultaneous theatrical and HBO Max releases? Not hard to imagine that the HBO Max release will peel off $50 or $100 mil in boxoffice... maybe more.

    The films coming from October to Feb include:

    Dune - Oct 1
    No Time To Die (James Bond) - Oct 8
    Halloween Kills - Oct 15
    Eternals - Nov 5
    Ghostbusters: Afterlife - Nov 11
    Top Gun: Maverick - Nov 19
    King Richard - Nov 19
    West Side Story - Dec 10
    Spider-man: No Way Home - Dec 17
    Sing 2 - Dec 22
    Matrix 4 - Dec 22
    Downton Abbey 2 - Dec 22
    Morbius - Jan 28
    Uncharted - Feb 18

    (I think we should we get and early start date so we can include Venom 2 on Sept 24, amiright?)
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, it is too late to try for the summer contest and the summer schedule is still a bit spotty to make the contest much fun.

    The winter does seem like a reasonable time to get things moving against. The mixing of streaming with regular theatrical release will make it a real challenge. I mean, how do you deal with films like Matrix 4 and Dune which are going to get simultaneous theatrical and HBO Max releases? Not hard to imagine that the HBO Max release will peel off $50 or $100 mil in boxoffice... maybe more.

    The films coming from October to Feb include:

    Dune - Oct 1
    No Time To Die (James Bond) - Oct 8
    Halloween Kills - Oct 15
    Eternals - Nov 5
    Ghostbusters: Afterlife - Nov 11
    Top Gun: Maverick - Nov 19
    King Richard - Nov 19
    West Side Story - Dec 10
    Spider-man: No Way Home - Dec 17
    Sing 2 - Dec 22
    Matrix 4 - Dec 22
    Downton Abbey 2 - Dec 22
    Morbius - Jan 28
    Uncharted - Feb 18

    (I think we should we get and early start date so we can include Venom 2 on Sept 24, amiright?)
    I think the upcoming Black Widow will give a good taste of how things work out with simultaneous theater and streaming releases. Of course it's a bit different than HBOmax in that you have to shell out an extra $30 for the Disney+ premium. But still, a good taste of things to come.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, it is too late to try for the summer contest and the summer schedule is still a bit spotty to make the contest much fun.

    The winter does seem like a reasonable time to get things moving against. The mixing of streaming with regular theatrical release will make it a real challenge. I mean, how do you deal with films like Matrix 4 and Dune which are going to get simultaneous theatrical and HBO Max releases? Not hard to imagine that the HBO Max release will peel off $50 or $100 mil in boxoffice... maybe more.

    The films coming from October to Feb include:

    Dune - Oct 1
    No Time To Die (James Bond) - Oct 8
    Halloween Kills - Oct 15
    Eternals - Nov 5
    Ghostbusters: Afterlife - Nov 11
    Top Gun: Maverick - Nov 19
    King Richard - Nov 19
    West Side Story - Dec 10
    Spider-man: No Way Home - Dec 17
    Sing 2 - Dec 22
    Matrix 4 - Dec 22
    Downton Abbey 2 - Dec 22
    Morbius - Jan 28
    Uncharted - Feb 18

    (I think we should we get and early start date so we can include Venom 2 on Sept 24, amiright?)
    Matrix 4 and Dune both also seem to be WAY more fun in a theater.

    Is Morbius the ONLY non-franchise non-remake? Yikes.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Is Morbius the ONLY non-franchise non-remake? Yikes.
    Morbius is a comic book movie so I see it as part of a larger franchise. It is like Venom and many folks expect Sony to eventually bring all the these anti-heroes together in a mega film, likely to fight against Spiderman. Mobius, Venom, Kraven the Hunter.

    And, of course, there are a lot lot lot of other movies opening in the winter. I just highlighted the ones that would seem to have the highest boxoffice potential. Those are almost always established franchises or otherwise valuable IP because of the built in fan base that drives big ticket sales.

    I highlighted King Richard too, which is the story of Venus and Serena's father, because Will Smith is such a big star that anything he stars in is worth consideration. And I would say that West Side Story, though known IP, is not exactly a typical Hollywood franchise kinda film. I'm not sure where Uncharted falls. It is based on a video game, right?
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Morbius is a comic book movie so I see it as part of a larger franchise. It is like Venom and many folks expect Sony to eventually bring all the these anti-heroes together in a mega film, likely to fight against Spiderman. Mobius, Venom, Kraven the Hunter.

    And, of course, there are a lot lot lot of other movies opening in the winter. I just highlighted the ones that would seem to have the highest boxoffice potential. Those are almost always established franchises or otherwise valuable IP because of the built in fan base that drives big ticket sales.

    I highlighted King Richard too, which is the story of Venus and Serena's father, because Will Smith is such a big star that anything he stars in is worth consideration. And I would say that West Side Story, though known IP, is not exactly a typical Hollywood franchise kinda film. I'm not sure where Uncharted falls. It is based on a video game, right?
    Didn't know Morbius was a comic book.

    Sheesh.

  8. #8
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    Full Dune trailer

    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Full Dune trailer
    Looks good! Can't wait to see it at home.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Looks good! Can't wait to see it at home.
    Zactly! (And possibly spread out over two nights)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Full Dune trailer
    It looks like they may have made quite a few changes from the books. It looks like Part Two is still not guaranteed, but will depend on the financial performance of the simultaneous release in theaters and via HBO Max.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    It looks like they may have made quite a few changes from the books. It looks like Part Two is still not guaranteed, but will depend on the financial performance of the simultaneous release in theaters and via HBO Max.
    I'm just glad we did not see anyone screaming, "He is the Kwisatz Haderach!"

    The Dune books are cool (some of them), but there is some freaky stuff in there that just won't translate well to the screen. Making strategic changes to the books is a very smart choice by the filmmakers.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I'm just glad we did not see anyone screaming, "He is the Kwisatz Haderach!"

    The Dune books are cool (some of them), but there is some freaky stuff in there that just won't translate well to the screen. Making strategic changes to the books is a very smart choice by the filmmakers.
    The first trailer I saw made it look much more like the film would adhere pretty strictly to the books, so to me this is a change in perception. I completely agree that the changes may be very productive and make it a better film. But it helps me to know going in that there are significant changes, so I'm not anticipating things that don't happen, the way I was in, say, the LOTR series.

  14. #14
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    New Ghostbusters Afterlife trailer dropped this morning.

    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    (I think we should we get and early start date so we can include Venom 2 on Sept 24, amiright?)
    Second trailer is out. Eddie Brock and Venom make the most unexpected comedy duo, ha!

    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Second trailer is out. Eddie Brock and Venom make the most unexpected comedy duo, ha!

    This sells it... I am gonna get the contest started early so we can include Venom/Carnage.

    Looking at the releases, I see at least 8 solid contenders for the top 5 and really only 1 film that would be considered a lock. Gonna be a fun contest!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    This sells it... I am gonna get the contest started early so we can include Venom/Carnage.

    Looking at the releases, I see at least 8 solid contenders for the top 5 and really only 1 film that would be considered a lock. Gonna be a fun contest!
    Unlike the last one, which was deservedly shut down, I hope this one stays the course, and that the pandemic is taken into consideration by voters. In a normal world, Spider-Man is an absolute lock. But if theaters are far less than capacity by December 17th, it should be taken into consideration given that we have the foresight that we weren't afforded in 2020.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Unlike the last one, which was deservedly shut down, I hope this one stays the course, and that the pandemic is taken into consideration by voters. In a normal world, Spider-Man is an absolute lock. But if theaters are far less than capacity by December 17th, it should be taken into consideration given that we have the foresight that we weren't afforded in 2020.
    And on that note, some cause for concern?

    A more sinister theory about the No Way Home trailer delay will annoy everyone. The gist of it is that Sony might not be sure whether it’ll stick with the December 17th release date. The coronavirus pandemic has taken another turn, with a new wave ravaging the world. Authorities are advising vaccinations and mask-wearing to reduce the delta variant threat, and new variants are emerging. What if Sony and Marvel have to delay Spider-Man 3 again?
    That's nothing more than some writer taking a stab in the dark, but it does show that it's a thought that's out there.
    From the same article...
    Venom: Let There be Carnage is also a Sony film, part of its own universe of Spider-Man stories. The sequel hits theaters on September 24th, with Sony having released a new trailer a few days ago (see below). But a Redditor observed that the Venom 2 trailer doesn’t have a release date in it. Instead, Sony tells the audience the film launches “in theaters this fall.” Could this be an indication that a release delay is possible?
    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...182656187.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  19. #19
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    And so it begins (again)...

    Ugh...

    Lots of talk today that Sony is about to move the release of Venom 2: Let There Be Carnage because of the pandemic. They may push it into October or perhaps January. Unlike Disney, Paramount, Universal, and WB, Sony does not have a convenient streaming outlet to push a film if in-person theater attendance dries up due to Delta.

    Disney/Marvel's Shang Chi will really determine what Hollywood will do next. It opens in 3 weeks and if it fails to even reach $50 million in opening weekend boxoffice then I suspect we are going to see the distributors become very reluctant to put high-value films back into theaters.

    Sigh...
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #20
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    This one might have a chance of being in the top 5.

    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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