Israel and Iran

[mph]

Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s strike on their Syrian embassy appears to be underway. Iranian drones are headed toward Israel and the Biden administration expects accompanying missile strikes.

For all the rightful attention paid to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a tit for tat war between Iran and Israel likely has a more probable path to regional escalation. Also, unlike Ukraine, Iran is likely sitting on enough enriched uranium to quickly build several nuclear bombs. A shooting war between a nuclear-armed Israel and Iran will turn the Middle East into a powderkeg. Sobering times.

[bundabergdevil]

Oh, this thread will last.

[bluedevilwildcats]

Oh, this thread will last.

Lol, getting in before it's closed.

[niveklaen]

We should have a pretty good idea of how good iron dome is by morning.

[wavedukefan70s]

We should have a pretty good idea of how good iron dome is by morning.

Saw some video it's holding in pretty good .problem with it is you send dummy
Drones and rockets to eat up munitions.
I Really wish there was a peaceful solution to this .
This could be really bad for the entire region.

[tommy]

Anyone know why Israel took out those Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders at this time and place? I’m sure they have lots of opportunities to do things like that. Why was it done at this time and place ?

Yes the missiles are flying. Iran says this will be all and so far the Dome has worked well. But this is unlikely to be over and contained like it appears at the moment.

[Kdogg]

Iran says its attack on Israel ‘concludes’ matter of Israeli attack on its embassy

Iran’s mission to the UN says on X that its drone and missile attack on Israel was conducted “on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense” and in response to Israel’s April 1 attack on its embassy in Damascus, Syria.

With the attack, “The matter can be deemed concluded,” says Iran.

“However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY,” it added.

This will play out like the pre-2024 Israel/Hamas relationship until it doesn't. Also in this fight Jordan, Egypt, UAE, the Saudis and the reset of the Sunni world are on the side of Israel in the hope that it neuters Iran.

[Jeffrey]

Anyone know why Israel took out those Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders at this time and place? I’m sure they have lots of opportunities to do things like that. Why was it done at this time and place ?

Merely, a guess…. Israel may have been trying to get one more play in before Biden’s game clock expired.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, WW3 would probably have been on my 2024 bingo card, if I'm honest.

[MCFinARL]

Well, WW3 would probably have been on my 2024 bingo card, if I'm honest.

Sad but true--so many opportunities; this is only one of them.

Weirdly, this attack by Iran may have helped swing the balance of international sympathy a little bit back toward Israel after Gaza threatened to make them an international pariah. But the Middle East situation is a disaster any way you look at it.

On a personal note, my son in law is currently trying to get home from Tel Aviv to Boston, haven't gone for his lifetime best friend's wedding; hoping he can get on a plane to the US or Europe as soon as the air space reopens.

[mph]

Sad but true--so many opportunities; this is only one of them.

Weirdly, this attack by Iran may have helped swing the balance of international sympathy a little bit back toward Israel after Gaza threatened to make them an international pariah. But the Middle East situation is a disaster any way you look at it.

On a personal note, my son in law is currently trying to get home from Tel Aviv to Boston, haven't gone for his lifetime best friend's wedding; hoping he can get on a plane to the US or Europe as soon as the air space reopens.

All the best to your son. I hope he gets home safely very soon.

As far as the attack is concerned, early reports from Israeli officials say few missiles and drones have made it through Israel’s defenses. That’s very good news although it’s early and hard to gauge the accuracy of reports in the fog of war. The real question is what Israel does to retaliate. The words “unprecedented force” are not encouraging.

This evening’s attack against Israel gives Jerusalem the right to launch its own strong attack against Iran, states Culture Minister Miki Zohar.

“Israel received broad international legitimacy tonight to strike Iran with unprecedented force,” he says in a statement, adding that Iran’s “extremist regime has taken off its gloves” and that Israel “must not be lax against the head of the snake that is working to destroy Israel.”

[FosterCoachK82]

This seems largely performative. Iran just retaliating because if they don’t they look weak. I don’t see this as a serious attack by Iran. That doesn’t mean the US and allies won’t use this as a reason to inflict major damage on Iran.

[CameronBlue]

This seems largely performative. Iran just retaliating because if they don’t they look weak. I don’t see this as a serious attack by Iran. That doesn’t mean the US and allies won’t use this as a reason to inflict major damage on Iran.

Biden‘s description of the largely ineffectual attack as as “win” is clearly an attempt to inject the language of de-escalation into the conversation at the moment. I think the best case scenario here will be Israel, continuing a slow intelligence-driven pursuit of Iran’s military commanders. Worst case scenario is too unpleasant to contemplate likely an all-out regional war.

[Jeffrey]

I think the best case scenario here will be Israel, continuing a slow intelligence-driven pursuit of Iran’s military commanders.

Yep, Iran just reset Israel’s international game clock. Political moves are usually strategically foolish.

[Rich]

Your Edit Comment

Not sure if your edit comment was serious or tongue in cheek, but I watched John Bolton in a recent interview and he thinks neither Biden nor Trump are competent to hold office, so doubtful he's advising in any manner.

[camion]

Not sure if your edit comment was serious or tongue in cheek, but I watched John Bolton in a recent interview and he thinks neither Biden nor Trump are competent to hold office, so doubtful he's advising in any manner.

Bolton has always given me the impression that he has great confidence in Bolton. Did he point to anyone else on the current scene whom he would trust to guide the country?

[Rich]

Bolton has always given me the impression that he has great confidence in Bolton. Did he point to anyone else on the current scene whom he would trust to guide the country?

He said he would write in Dick Cheney according to the CNN video below (which is not the interview where I heard him mention his disdain for both Trump and Biden).

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...ot-src-vpx.cnn

[Kdogg]

Bolton has always given me the impression that he has great confidence in Bolton. Did he point to anyone else on the current scene whom he would trust to guide the country?

Since Bolton's solution to everything is more fighting that's not a bad thing. The man has never meet a military action he hasn't endorsed.

He said he would write in Dick Cheney according to the CNN video below (which is not the interview where I heard him mention his disdain for both Trump and Biden).

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/...ot-src-vpx.cnn

Which tracks.

[lotusland]

I tend to be a cynic regarding peace in the Middle East but this is my tonic for hopelessness in times like these.

https://youtu.be/nU278yFdvgQ?si=nyRJUs3OeI6c8EXo

[budwom]

for those who haven't noticed, that was a Kabuki dance response by Iran. Told everyone what they were doing, sent an assortment of air garbage at Israel, like a few hundred Ford Fairlanes, seemingly no one was hurt. Face saving gesture, good time for this round to simply end.