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Thread: Brexit

  1. #101
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Forest Hills, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by 77devil View Post
    Its only economically viable for Scotland to exit the U.K. by remaining in the EU and receiving EU subsidies like the many poorer countries currently do.
    Agree...my thoughts exactly. I was just posing the framework for the analysis. Just a different, more distant, master...

  2. #102
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    If the Scots were to do it, then 'twould best it were done while they still have oil. I wouldn't try it after those fields are in further depletion.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  3. #103
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Seen on Facebook:

    People from N.Ireland with dual Irish/British passports will be both EU Citizens and not at the same time. Schrodingers Catholics
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  4. #104
    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Corey View Post
    To those of you that are economists or economic experts: What's the short-term and long-term prognosis?

    I'm having a hard time finding any silver lining to this news.
    I'm heading to London later today for a week's worth of meetings with my bank's British leadership, as well as senior leaders from Belgian, Swiss, and South African banks. Interestingly, these were pre-planned, but this will surely dominate the discussion.

    In my opinion, there are an absolute ton of potential silver linings, some with near 100% certainty, some that will likely take years to shake out. A couple of things to note:

    - I highly recommend getting your news on this from the financial press, whether Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ, FT, etc. I've found them to do a much, much better job of presenting facts and potential outcomes than the usual suspects, where the talking heads seem to do little more than insist the sky is falling with 100% certainty.

    - As was mentioned upthread, there were a lot of fatalists and doomsday prognosticators when the UK opted to keep the pound. With hindsight, they were wrong, and the UK decision was very prescient.

    Some silver linings:

    - Interest rates will likely remain low, and US mortgages could go even lower than recent record lows. This is, of course, a great thing for anyone thinking about buying a home or refinancing.

    - The US stock market could gain considerably from this. I'm disagree with Gordog that we could see a 1-2% bump as early as Mon/Tues. Stocks closed at Friday lows, and I think they could drop a bit more next week as foreign markets continue to drop. But I do think we're going to see a flight to quality, with a lot of demand for metals, US bonds, and US equities.

    - As mentioned earlier, the drop in the pound will be good for US tourists (we're in the heart of European tourist season), good for UK exporters, and potentially good for US consumers that buy British products. It will be bad for US exporters to the UK.

    - My numbers may be off (and I don't feel like taking the time to google), but this will remove billions of pounds of support (I want to say 9 billion) the UK provides to southern and eastern Europe. Many Brits will likely see that as a good thing; it will, of course, be a negative for the recipients of those funds.

    - This could be a good thing for the British economy, and indirectly the global marketplace, via an increase in British innovation. Many British tech companies felt stringent EU rules were holding back startups and innovation. The Brits will likely opt for less regulation, US-style. This will likely be a negative thing for Silicon valley, which could see increased competition.

    - There is potential for a substantially larger British economy. The Brits feel they can run their economy better than the EU can. The Brits would point to growth since the recession as evidence. Both the US and the UK have seen double digit gains; continental Europe is low single-digits. Some Brits feel they can negotiate better deals than the EU was getting, with less barriers to trade outside the EU (ie. with places like Africa).

    - Adding to the above, the global marketplace is a far different place than when the UK joined the EU, with far more globalized trade. It will be really interesting to see the trade outcomes of this.

    - Last point, I'm only answering Mike Corey's question and pointing out potential benefits; I'm also aware there are a metric ton of risks and drawbacks to leaving.

  5. #105
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Forest Hills, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post
    I'm heading to London later today for a week's worth of meetings with my bank's British leadership, as well as senior leaders from Belgian, Swiss, and South African banks. Interestingly, these were pre-planned, but this will surely dominate the discussion.

    In my opinion, there are an absolute ton of potential silver linings, some with near 100% certainty, some that will likely take years to shake out. A couple of things to note:

    - I highly recommend getting your news on this from the financial press, whether Bloomberg, CNBC, WSJ, FT, etc. I've found them to do a much, much better job of presenting facts and potential outcomes than the usual suspects, where the talking heads seem to do little more than insist the sky is falling with 100% certainty.

    - As was mentioned upthread, there were a lot of fatalists and doomsday prognosticators when the UK opted to keep the pound. With hindsight, they were wrong, and the UK decision was very prescient.

    Some silver linings:

    - Interest rates will likely remain low, and US mortgages could go even lower than recent record lows. This is, of course, a great thing for anyone thinking about buying a home or refinancing.

    - The US stock market could gain considerably from this. I'm disagree with Gordog that we could see a 1-2% bump as early as Mon/Tues. Stocks closed at Friday lows, and I think they could drop a bit more next week as foreign markets continue to drop. But I do think we're going to see a flight to quality, with a lot of demand for metals, US bonds, and US equities.

    - As mentioned earlier, the drop in the pound will be good for US tourists (we're in the heart of European tourist season), good for UK exporters, and potentially good for US consumers that buy British products. It will be bad for US exporters to the UK.

    - My numbers may be off (and I don't feel like taking the time to google), but this will remove billions of pounds of support (I want to say 9 billion) the UK provides to southern and eastern Europe. Many Brits will likely see that as a good thing; it will, of course, be a negative for the recipients of those funds.

    - This could be a good thing for the British economy, and indirectly the global marketplace, via an increase in British innovation. Many British tech companies felt stringent EU rules were holding back startups and innovation. The Brits will likely opt for less regulation, US-style. This will likely be a negative thing for Silicon valley, which could see increased competition.

    - There is potential for a substantially larger British economy. The Brits feel they can run their economy better than the EU can. The Brits would point to growth since the recession as evidence. Both the US and the UK have seen double digit gains; continental Europe is low single-digits. Some Brits feel they can negotiate better deals than the EU was getting, with less barriers to trade outside the EU (ie. with places like Africa).

    - Adding to the above, the global marketplace is a far different place than when the UK joined the EU, with far more globalized trade. It will be really interesting to see the trade outcomes of this.

    - Last point, I'm only answering Mike Corey's question and pointing out potential benefits; I'm also aware there are a metric ton of risks and drawbacks to leaving.
    Well written analysis...I bolded two points.

    As a NYer, we may see some bump in foreign RE development as London becomes more volatile (at least in the near term). We remain a safe haven for FDI. (Crain's had a piece on this yesterday. I posted it on LinkedIn.)

    While less expensive for US folks to travel to Europe, the reverse of course is also true. We will see a reduction in the tourist trade, our second or third largest industry here.

    Goldbugs should have been happy yesterday..

  6. #106
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by duke74 View Post
    Well written analysis...I bolded two points.

    As a NYer, we may see some bump in foreign RE development as London becomes more volatile (at least in the near term). We remain a safe haven for FDI. (Crain's had a piece on this yesterday. I posted it on LinkedIn.)

    While less expensive for US folks to travel to Europe, the reverse of course is also true. We will see a reduction in the tourist trade, our second or third largest industry here.

    Goldbugs should have been happy yesterday..
    Goldbugs are never happy.

    Great analysis by both of you, thanks.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  7. #107
    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post
    - This could be a good thing for the British economy, and indirectly the global marketplace, via an increase in British innovation. Many British tech companies felt stringent EU rules were holding back startups and innovation. The Brits will likely opt for less regulation, US-style. This will likely be a negative thing for Silicon valley, which could see increased competition.
    Those same stringent EU rules probably hurt Silicon Valley companies too right? Having a big European market get out of them might be a benefit for other reasons to Silicon Valley. I am no policy/economics guy, but I've worked for quite a while at Google, and it seems to me that the EU government ranks only behind China in terms of being hostile to the company.

  8. #108
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    yeah, I don't see this hurting Silicon Valley at all, unless I'm missing something. But great post by Reisen...
    Last edited by budwom; 06-25-2016 at 11:34 AM.

  9. #109
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    yeah, I don't see this hurting Silicon Valley at all, unless I'm missing something. But great post by Reisen...
    Thanks for all the kind words guys. On the Silicon Valley thing, the only idea was the risk of increased competition and disruption coming out of the UK. I don't think it's a coincidence that Google, Amazon, Air BnB, Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, Uber, etc etc are all American. With a friendlier tech environment, we could see the next big tech disruptor originating out of London.

    I'm unsure how I feel about what this will do to American tech companies in Europe. They'll almost certainly find a friendlier regulatory environment in London, but without the British moderating influence, I wonder if they'll face increased anti-trust scrutiny on the continent.

  10. #110
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post
    Thanks for all the kind words guys. On the Silicon Valley thing, the only idea was the risk of increased competition and disruption coming out of the UK. I don't think it's a coincidence that Google, Amazon, Air BnB, Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, Uber, etc etc are all American. With a friendlier tech environment, we could see the next big tech disruptor originating out of London.

    I'm unsure how I feel about what this will do to American tech companies in Europe. They'll almost certainly find a friendlier regulatory environment in London, but without the British moderating influence, I wonder if they'll face increased anti-trust scrutiny on the continent.
    I'm a big fan of the UK, but as a former tech competitive analysis guy, I just don't see much threat coming from there...for sure I agree they have a friendlier regulatory environment...
    And the continentals will continue to eye US tech with great suspicion (and envy).

  11. #111
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Forest Hills, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post
    Thanks for all the kind words guys. On the Silicon Valley thing, the only idea was the risk of increased competition and disruption coming out of the UK. I don't think it's a coincidence that Google, Amazon, Air BnB, Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, Uber, etc etc are all American. With a friendlier tech environment, we could see the next big tech disruptor originating out of London.

    I'm unsure how I feel about what this will do to American tech companies in Europe. They'll almost certainly find a friendlier regulatory environment in London, but without the British moderating influence, I wonder if they'll face increased anti-trust scrutiny on the continent.



    This is the argument that the "Bremainers" should have been making (and that pro EU Brits have been making for years). If you are part of an organization, you have a say. You may be continually outvoted and thus frustrated with the outcome, but you have the opportunity to influence the results. Outsiders have no such influence.

    Although...in my opinion this was not a rational decision by the electorate. They voted with their hearts vs their head in many cases. Both sides made visceral arguments...the remainers counted on negative/fear inducing arguments (here's what will befall us if we leave). The Leavers made essentially the reverse argument (here's what being in has caused to our disadvantage - immigration, stifling of innovation, taxation, economic funding of poorer countries (PIIGS), etc)

  12. #112
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Reisen View Post
    Thanks for all the kind words guys. On the Silicon Valley thing, the only idea was the risk of increased competition and disruption coming out of the UK. I don't think it's a coincidence that Google, Amazon, Air BnB, Facebook, Pinterest, Twitter, Uber, etc etc are all American. With a friendlier tech environment, we could see the next big tech disruptor originating out of London.

    I'm unsure how I feel about what this will do to American tech companies in Europe. They'll almost certainly find a friendlier regulatory environment in London, but without the British moderating influence, I wonder if they'll face increased anti-trust scrutiny on the continent.
    English scientists polled around ~85% to remain. Many argued that leaving would hurt British innovation, because research scientists would lose the substantial support the EU provides, and the scientists themselves will be isolated from their peers if they stay in the UK. I think there is a real risk of brain drain (especially when Scotland votes to leave the UK).

  13. #113
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Cincinnati
    Quote Originally Posted by Reilly View Post
    Just read a somewhat-related article in National Affairs about whether certain questions should not be subject to popular or even representative vote: http://www.nationalaffairs.com/publi...-majority-rule

    Though this article was written by the conservative George Will, the idea of making certain questions off-limits to the people or their representatives is one that may appeal to either the current American left or right, depending on the issue.
    George Will touts the role of the federal courts in restraining majority rule (legislatures) that pass laws contrary to the constitution and implies that legislation ought not to automatically be given the benefit of the doubt and assumed to be constitutional. Will's area of interest is when those with entrenched power get the legislature to pass legislation that inhibits competition, as where to protect the funeral industry from competition they require that before anyone can sell caskets he must be a licensed embalmer. The problem, of course, is that Will is urging that in more and more instances the courts should step in and take over, on the grounds that things "ought to" be done a different way and that different "liberties" should be protected. We end up putting more and more out of the reach of the voters and into the hands of an unelected court with political preferences of their own to do as they see fit without oversight from anybody. As Thomas Jefferson put it:

    We already see the power, installed for life, responsible to no authority (for impeachment is not even a scare-crow), advancing with a noiseless and steady pace to the great object of consolidation. The foundations are already deeply laid by their decisions, for the annihilation of constitutional State rights, and the removal of every check, every counterpoise to the ingulphing* power of which themselves are to make a sovereign part. ...That there should be public functionaries independent of the nation, whatever may be their demerit, is a solecism in a republic, of the first order of absurdity and inconsistency. Thomas Jefferson, 1822. http://www.constitution.org/tj/ltr/1...0702_barry.htm
    I have the feeling that Will actually is hoping for a conservative judicial counter-revolution, where such "liberties" as economic freedom will hold sway, and where conservative federal judges will force their ideology onto the country as both liberal and conservative judges have done during various periods in our history.

  14. #114
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    raleigh
    i thought this little flash info was useful...
    "Either they're going down, or we are! Kirk out!"

  15. #115

    Thanks

    Quote Originally Posted by moonpie23 View Post
    i thought this little flash info was useful...
    Cleared up some things for me.

    SoCal

  16. #116
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hotlanta
    Hmmm. I had the UK and Great Britain backwards.

  17. #117
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    More and more reports of Brexit remorse from UK's leaders and citzenry...if another vote were held, Brexit would probably lose easily.* Is it too late?
    More and more talk of either negating or circumventing the vote, perhaps negotiating a new deal with the EU...as some have noted, the dog caught the
    car and now isn't sure what to do about it.

    I'd bet that the UK finds a way to circumvent this vote

    * I think the early ramifications of Brexit are sobering, financial disruption, drop in stock prices, which leads me to believe a new vote would be different. We'll see!

  18. #118
    But the same issues that caused the vote to go the direction it did would resurface. There's always remorse after a breakup. Seldom does it work out to go back.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  19. #119
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    More and more reports of Brexit remorse from UK's leaders and citzenry...if another vote were held, Brexit would probably lose easily.* Is it too late?
    More and more talk of either negating or circumventing the vote, perhaps negotiating a new deal with the EU...as some have noted, the dog caught the
    car and now isn't sure what to do about it.

    I'd bet that the UK finds a way to circumvent this vote

    * I think the early ramifications of Brexit are sobering, financial disruption, drop in stock prices, which leads me to believe a new vote would be different. We'll see!
    I'm very skeptical that the remorse "faction" of Brexit represents any significant numbers.

    However, a second Brexit referendum would probably go to Remain if they can GOTV of the youth vote. "Get off Tumblr and go vote, you lazy bums" should be the campaign slogan for Remain.


  20. #120
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Forest Hills, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I'm very skeptical that the remorse "faction" of Brexit represents any significant numbers.

    However, a second Brexit referendum would probably go to Remain if they can GOTV of the youth vote. "Get off Tumblr and go vote, you lazy bums" should be the campaign slogan for Remain.

    Thanks. Excellent table. What's the source, if I may ask? (I'd like to use it in something I am preparing and want to cite appropriately.)

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