Brexit & British Politics

[OldPhiKap]

Thirty days to go.

And only 19 until Boris is compelled by the Benn Act to ask for an extension if no agreement is reached. EU has essentially given up on any new plan being done by then, because (1) Boris still has not presented one; and (2) that is not enough time as a practical matter for member states to review the agreement with their home authorities.

[dudog84]

I've come to the concussion...

Freudian slip?

[JasonEvans]

So, see if you follow my logic here...

1) The EU would be perfectly happy if the UK stayed in the Union
2) Parliament has ruled that the UK cannot leave without a deal
3) The EU must agree to a deal

So, 4) The EU can keep the UK in the Union forever (or at least for many more years) by just not agreeing to a deal, right?

What is the EU incentive to agree to any deal? What do they get out of it other than some kind of exit fee that is probably far less than the economic impact of continued free trade with the UK.

[Kdogg]

Freudian slip?

That’s 😄. Also not far from the truth.

So, see if you follow my logic here...
What is the EU incentive to agree to any deal? What do they get out of it other than some kind of exit fee that is probably far less than the economic impact of continued free trade with the UK.

You are using logic. They threw that out a long time ago.

The talk out of Number 10 is either looking for a loophole or flat out breaking the law. Some strange scenarios like issuing the request and then recalling it or ask an EU country to veto it. That’s why the MPs are trying to implement a temporary unity government...to avoid shenanigans. Problem is Corbyn will not back down and rebels and Lib will not back him as PM.

Also the EU does not want this to drag on forever. Eventually they will take their lumps if needed to get past this.

[OldPhiKap]

So, see if you follow my logic here...

1) The EU would be perfectly happy if the UK stayed in the Union
2) Parliament has ruled that the UK cannot leave without a deal
3) The EU must agree to a deal

So, 4) The EU can keep the UK in the Union forever (or at least for many more years) by just not agreeing to a deal, right?

What is the EU incentive to agree to any deal? What do they get out of it other than some kind of exit fee that is probably far less than the economic impact of continued free trade with the UK.

That's the Brexiteer's main concern about the Back Stop -- that the EU could theoretically keep the UK in the customs union until they agreed to a solution down the road.

I'm sure that the EU would like Nigel Farage out of the EU Parliament as soon as possible, though.

[budwom]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1WF1PA

I guess it's OK I can't figure this out since the Brits can't figure out what Bo is up to either...

[OldPhiKap]

Political scandals, 2019:

US: hold my beer.
UK: hold my beer.
US: hold my beer.
UK: hold my beer.
US: hold my beer.
UK: hold my beer.
US: hold my beer.
UK: hold my beer.


(stolen from someone on Twitter)

[OldPhiKap]

The UK still has not submitted a formal plan to avoid the backstop, but an informal plan leaked about setting up customs checkpoints for the border but back a handful of kilometers from the line. Brussels and Dublin just announced that such a plan is a “nonstarter:”

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/01/w...sh-border.html

[Kdogg]

Political scandals, 2019:

US: hold my beer.
UK: hold my beer.
US: hold my beer.
UK: hold my beer.
US: hold my beer.
UK: hold my beer.
US: hold my beer.
UK: hold my beer.


(stolen from someone on Twitter)

I think I'm holding both their beers.

Johnson finally sent the EU his altered proposal for Brexit. The main point is Northern Ireland stays in the European single market for manufactured goods and agriculture, but leaves the customs union. Hello border checks and tariffs! On both sides of the boarder! But hey, they will be a few kilometers from the real border so it's OK. No smuggling here. Also Northern Ireland won't be paying EU Value Added Tax. And by the way we are going to have customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in this scenario. Of course we could have done this SIX MONTHS ago and been out forthwith but the DUP says it's OK now. (Psst! Don't tell them, theoretically they might be in the single market forever because..) And did we mention, the Northern Ireland Assembly will have to approve it and will vote on renewing this scheme every four years. Neverminded that they haven't convened in two years and the deadline is Oct 31. Sinn Fein is going to hate this idea so good luck getting them on board.

If in the near future I'm committed to a psych ward they will already have a diagnoses: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/01/healt...ntl/index.html

Seriously, it seems this proposal was specifically designed to be reject by the EU. It crosses several of the EU's red lines and seems impossible to implement. We will see what the EU thinks in the coming days. Boris will try for a shorter prorogue starting next October 8th and set a Queens Speech on October 14th. Suspiciously, if it starts Tuesday Boris will avoid Prime Minster's Question Time.

[OldPhiKap]

I think I'm holding both their beers.

Johnson finally sent the EU his altered proposal for Brexit. The main point is Northern Ireland stays in the European single market for manufactured goods and agriculture, but leaves the customs union. Hello border checks and tariffs! On both sides of the boarder! But hey, they will be a few kilometers from the real border so it's OK. No smuggling here. Also Northern Ireland won't be paying EU Value Added Tax. And by the way we are going to have customs checks between Great Britain and Northern Ireland in this scenario. Of course we could have done this SIX MONTHS ago and been out forthwith but the DUP says it's OK now. (Psst! Don't tell them, theoretically they might be in the single market forever because..) And did we mention, the Northern Ireland Assembly will have to approve it and will vote on renewing this scheme every four years. Neverminded that they haven't convened in two years and the deadline is Oct 31. Sinn Fein is going to hate this idea so good luck getting them on board.

If in the near future I'm committed to a psych ward they will already have a diagnoses: https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/01/healt...ntl/index.html

Seriously, it seems this proposal was specifically designed to be reject by the EU. It crosses several of the EU's red lines and seems impossible to implement. We will see what the EU thinks in the coming days. Boris will try for a shorter prorogue starting next October 8th and set a Queens Speech on October 14th. Suspiciously, if it starts Tuesday Boris will avoid Prime Minster's Question Time.

If I was a cynic, I would think Boris wants it to get turned down so he can go into the general arguing that he tried but the EU was unreasonable. And as always, blame the Irish.

Good thing I’m not cynical.

[OldPhiKap]

Ireland says that if Boris' proposal is final, there's no deal.

Tusk tweeted, supporting Ireland and relaying a message he delivered by phone to Boris -- "we remain open but still unconvinced."

[budwom]

The EU just told Bo his latest plan is unacceptable:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...db8_story.html

Onward and Downward!

[JasonEvans]

The EU just told Bo his latest plan is unacceptable:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...db8_story.html

Onward and Downward!

His plan was always to put forth a plan the EU cannot accept and then get Parliament to agree to it, making the EU look like the bad guy as Britain crashes out with a no-deal Brexit. If Parliament approves this plan, it will put tremendous pressure on the EU. The EU may be faced with either this plan or a no-deal... I'm not sure which is worse.

[OldPhiKap]

His plan was always to put forth a plan the EU cannot accept and then get Parliament to agree to it, making the EU look like the bad guy as Britain crashes out with a no-deal Brexit. If Parliament approves this plan, it will put tremendous pressure on the EU. The EU may be faced with either this plan or a no-deal... I'm not sure which is worse.

Absolutely agree.

One hitch though -- would Parliament even support this? And with Parliament fixin' to be prorogued again next week until the 14th, will they even get a chance to vote?

(Okay, that's two hitches. My bad)

But I think your point is wholly correct. Boris is in general election mode. He made an offer, the unreasonable EU refused, he did the best he could. And he could do even better with a mandate at the ballot box, dear voter.

[howardlander]

His plan was always to put forth a plan the EU cannot accept and then get Parliament to agree to it, making the EU look like the bad guy as Britain crashes out with a no-deal Brexit. If Parliament approves this plan, it will put tremendous pressure on the EU. The EU may be faced with either this plan or a no-deal... I'm not sure which is worse.

For some reason that I don't quite understand, it seems fairly clear to me that a no-deal Brexit is actually Boris' preferred outcome. I don't see it being advantageous to England (the term Great Britain might no longer be appropriate in 5 years!), but still that seems to be what he wants.

Howard

[throatybeard]

Absolutely agree.
And with Parliament fixin' to be prorogued again next week until the 14th, will they even get a chance to vote?

This is the first time I've seen inceptive fixin to paired with the verb prorogue and I fully support it.

(Of course, I was today years old when I learned prorogue in the first place, perhaps two months ago if that).

[throatybeard]

The Economist isn't pulling any punches.

20190928_cna400.jpg

[Kdogg]

His plan was always to put forth a plan the EU cannot accept and then get Parliament to agree to it, making the EU look like the bad guy as Britain crashes out with a no-deal Brexit. If Parliament approves this plan, it will put tremendous pressure on the EU. The EU may be faced with either this plan or a no-deal... I'm not sure which is worse.

Parliament won’t vote on this plan or any plan until the EU accepts it so no pressure there. This is just Boris playing to the base. This is the start of his election campaign. If I were the EU, even though it’s against my own self interests, I would tell Boris to get lost. (Sanitized for the board.) The Irish border is what frightens me. The economic hit will be bad but the potential return of bombing and disappearing people will be terrible.

For some reason that I don't quite understand, it seems fairly clear to me that a no-deal Brexit is actually Boris' preferred outcome. I don't see it being advantageous to England (the term Great Britain might no longer be appropriate in 5 years!), but still that seems to be what he wants.

Howard

Boris doesn’t have hard convictions. He supported Brexit as a stunt. Surprise! You won. All he wants is adoration from the masses.

[OldPhiKap]

Per the Telegraph (salt grain alert), Boris is reaching out to Hungary’s government to veto A50 extension. That way, Boris can ask for it as required but a no-deal Brexit would still be the result.

[Kdogg]

Per the Telegraph (salt grain alert), Boris is reaching out to Hungary’s government to veto A50 extension. That way, Boris can ask for it as required but a no-deal Brexit would still be the result.

That’s been the scuttlebut for a few weeks now. The EU has been remarkably unified on Brexit though, so I don’t think any country dissents now. It would directly and significantly hurt EU members Ireland and France immediately. Also No Deal means no alimony money from the divorce which hurts the entire EU. It’s one thing to let the UK crash out but a veto forces it and puts the blame on the EU. Even 🇫🇷, with all their rhetoric would not be the a sole veto. They may vote as a block not to extend but I think the EU will extend indefinitely and either let the UK crash out on their own accord or remain. This is based on the assumption that the EU remains the pragmatic one.