Brexit & British Politics

[OldPhiKap]

Mutually assured destruction. Working so far.

That’s the goal, or the strategy?

[OldPhiKap]

Boris is now Schrödinger's PM -- can't control a majority; can't get folks to vote the government out of existence.

Looking ahead, assuming there is a general election at some point -- what makes anyone think that the results of that will bring any more clarity than there is now? I'm not in favor of Brexit so glad to see the delay, but it seems that this whole argument is just getting punted down the road with no end in sight.

I can see where some folks in Great Britain (and I guess Wales) would just say "screw it -- let's just rip the band aid off and leave."

[budwom]

Boris is now Schrödinger's PM -- can't control a majority; can't get folks to vote the government out of existence.

Looking ahead, assuming there is a general election at some point -- what makes anyone think that the results of that will bring any more clarity than there is now? I'm not in favor of Brexit so glad to see the delay, but it seems that this whole argument is just getting punted down the road with no end in sight.

I can see where some folks in Great Britain (and I guess Wales) would just say "screw it -- let's just rip the band aid off and leave."

Yes, one could argue that the effects of Brexit may not be worse than the horrific effects of bickering about Brexit

[Kdogg]

I can see where some folks in Great Britain (and I guess Wales) would just say "screw it -- let's just rip the band aid off and leave."

This is the danger. There is a growing level of...disgust, apathy, tiredness...I’m not sure the right word. People are just worn downed and eventually might willingly expect that. Keep calm and jump off the cliffs edge.

[Kdogg]

The High Court case (back by Gina Miller and John Major) was dismissed but the court is allowing expedited appeal to the Super Court around Sept 19. Two court loses with the Northern Irish Court to go on Monday.

File under Be Careful What You Wish For: Boris proroguing of Parliament will actually give him less time to maneuver. In these crazy times, I would not be shocked if he triggers a Tory No Confidence vote on himself. Quickest way for a snap election because it would force Labour to vote that they have confidence in him.

[OldPhiKap]

The High Court case (back by Gina Miller and John Major) was dismissed but the court is allowing expedited appeal to the Super Court around Sept 19. Two court loses with the Northern Irish Court to go on Monday.

File under Be Careful What You Wish For: Boris proroguing of Parliament will actually give him less time to maneuver. In these crazy times, I would not be shocked if he triggers a Tory No Confidence vote on himself. Quickest way for a snap election because it would force Labour to vote that they have confidence in him.

1. What would be the earliest that Boris could do this, given the prorogue?

2. If it passed, doesn’t that trigger a 14 day window which would carry the final vote past the date Boris has to ask for an extension?

Thanks!

[Kdogg]

1. What would be the earliest that Boris could do this, given the prorogue?

2. If it passed, doesn’t that trigger a 14 day window which would carry the final vote past the date Boris has to ask for an extension?

Thanks!

I was just joking. I can't imagine Boris Johnson saying he has no confidence in himself. Space/time might collapse. But...

1) Monday.

2) The new government has to be formed in 14 days by law. I'm assuming if Parliament if prorogued they can't do this leading to the body being dissolved and a general election. I guess it's possible Boris can go back to the Queen and ask for a delay but I'm not sure. Parliament takes a three week recess soon for party conference so there's that too.

[throatybeard]

Is there a possibility that they'll figure out a way to not go on vacation? (That is, a procedural manoeuvre past the proroguing). Given that they're facing the biggest existential thread to the United Kingdom since Hitler was dropping bombs on them in 1940? Isn't Labour's block of the snap election much to do with their fear that Corbyn is an albatross about their necks?

I keep hoping this mess will take down Corbyn nearly as swiftly as Johnson. Idle hope.

Did I spell maneuver Englishly enough?

[Kdogg]

Is there a possibility that they'll figure out a way to not go on vacation? (That is, a procedural manoeuvre past the proroguing). Given that they're facing the biggest existential thread to the United Kingdom since Hitler was dropping bombs on them in 1940? Isn't Labour's block of the snap election much to do with their fear that Corbyn is an albatross about their necks?

The upcoming recess isn't a holiday (well not all of it anyway). They just came back from vacation Monday. This is for party conferences where the members can hash out policy, tactics, platforms and backstabbings. Instead of all parties holding conferences during the same period, they stagger the dates. Why? I don't know. Maybe to accommodate journalists and not divide coverage and attention? It drags the Conference Recess to three weeks. Sure MPs could vote to cancel the recess but the party conferences will still go on. Too much money and preparation have been laid out. On a much smaller scale, it would be like canceling the DNC or GOP National Convention a week and a half before they were to start. So even if they could muster enough votes to cancel the recess, at least one parties MPs would be abstain through the end of September. So not likely.

.

[cato]

The upcoming recess isn't a holiday (well not all of it anyway). They just came back from vacation Monday. This is for party conferences where the members can hash out policy, tactics, platforms and backstabbings. Instead of all parties holding conferences during the same period, they stagger the dates. Why? I don't know. Maybe to accommodate journalists and not divide coverage and attention? It drags the Conference Recess to three weeks. Sure MPs could vote to cancel the recess but the party conferences will still go on. Too much money and preparation have been laid out. On a much smaller scale, it would be like canceling the DNC or GOP National Convention a week and a half before they were to start. So even if they could muster enough votes to cancel the recess, at least one parties MPs would be abstain through the end of September. So not likely.

.

Kdogg, your contributions are greatly appreciated. As I started reading this, I wondered what the parallel in the US would be to party conferences. You answered my question before I could ask it.

My wife asked me last night when Brexit will be in light of parliament’s votes this week, and we could not figure out any answer.

[OldPhiKap]

Amber Rudd resigned from the cabinet today and gave up her whip, in solidarity with those who got thrown out last week. One less Tory. Boris’ support shrinks even more.

What happens when a party stands up to crazy from within.

[Kdogg]

Amber Rudd resigned from the cabinet today and gave up her whip, in solidarity with those who got thrown out last week. One less Tory. Boris’ support shrinks even more.

What happens when a party stands up to crazy from within.

Also Philip Hammond looking to take legal action over his expulsion. Also taking shots at Dominic Cumming: “This is my party, and I am not going to be pushed out of it by unelected Downing Street advisors who are not Conservatives and who care not one jot whether the party has a future.”

Cummings has been the main force behind Boris’s hard line tactics. Number 10 has become a giant echo chamber with Cumming’s voice the loudest.

[OldPhiKap]

Also Philip Hammond looking to take legal action over his expulsion. Also taking shots at Dominic Cumming: “This is my party, and I am not going to be pushed out of it by unelected Downing Street advisors who are not Conservatives and who care not one jot whether the party has a future.”

Cummings has been the main force behind Boris’s hard line tactics. Number 10 has become a giant echo chamber with Cumming’s voice the loudest.

Is Cummings basically the UK version of Steve Bannon?

[Kdogg]

Is Cummings basically the UK version of Steve Bannon?

They are both architects of victories but he might be more influential than Bannon. We’ve seen Trump’s still Trump without Bannon. More so it seems. Without Cummings, Boris might still push No Deal but no way does he push the purge or five week prorogue of Parliament.

I have no proof but I truly believe neither Trump or Boris thought they would win the highest office in their respective county. Now they have only their narrowing bases to pander to, the rest be damned.

[dudog84]

Is Cummings basically the UK version of Steve Bannon?

I was thinking of another person closer to "home".

[JasonEvans]

Is Cummings basically the UK version of Steve Bannon?

I guess you had not heard... Steve Bannon is the UK's version of Steve Bannon.

Boris Johnson, currently leading the race to be Britain's next prime minister, appears to have been caught in a lie about his ties to Stephen Bannon, former campaign manager and chief strategist to US President Donald Trump and former executive chairman of the far-right news website Breitbart News.

The UK's Observer newspaper on Saturday released a video clip showing Bannon discussing his advice to Johnson for a key speech the former British foreign secretary made in Parliament shortly after his resignation. Johnson has previously denied any association with Bannon, once describing the notion as "a lefty delusion."

[throatybeard]

Ghost ride the whip.

[OldPhiKap]

Speaker John Bercow just announced that he will step down at the next election, or October 31, whichever comes first. Not surprising, but adds some more chaos to the House of Commons.

[Kdogg]

Speaker John Bercow just announced that he will step down at the next election, or October 31, whichever comes first. Not surprising, but adds some more chaos to the House of Commons.

Another longtime, traditional Tory steps away. This thwarts the Government Tories unconventional plan to run a candidate against him in the next election. Also prevents them from throwing him out of the party.

[OldPhiKap]

Another longtime, traditional Tory steps away. This thwarts the Government Tories unconventional plan to run a candidate against him in the next election. Also prevents them from throwing him out of the party.

All true. And I think Bercow had all but said some time ago that he was stepping down soon. I think he wanted to see Brexit through, which may or may not happen.

He already survived at least one effort in the HoP to get him out of the chair. Running a candidate against him at his own election would have been, if unprecedented, at least against longstanding convention as I understand it.

It will be interesting to see who his successor is, given that the next government may well be another coalition government and the Tories can't necessarily steer the job to one of their own.