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Thread: Brexit

  1. #701
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Meanwhile, while warming up in the metaphorical bullpen, Boris managed to get into some kind of tiff with his girlfriend:

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/22/uk/bo...ntl/index.html

    They are really making a hash of things over there right now...

  2. #702
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    The Tories are having a series of traveling debates between the two candidates for PM. First one didn’t go without bumps for Boris, apparently:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/bori...ship-hustings/

    Which raises the question: would Boris lose support even if he shot someone on Oxford Street?
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  3. #703
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Which raises the question: would Boris lose support even if he shot someone on Oxford Street?
    That one is just too cool for school.

  4. #704
    Not a surprise but the Scots are not happy with the prospects of a Boris prime ministership.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/scot...inister-2019-6

  5. #705
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Not a surprise but the Scots are not happy with the prospects of a Boris prime ministership.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/scot...inister-2019-6
    Ian Blackford (leader of theScottish National Party in Parliament) on Wednesday:



    Ouch.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  6. #706
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Not a surprise but the Scots are not happy with the prospects of a Boris prime ministership.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/scot...inister-2019-6
    So here's a thought: The call for Scottish independence is close even without Boris, does leaving the EU also push them over the edge? Economically, would they be better off with the EU than England? I assume the EU is a significantly larger trading partner, if less convenient.

    And then does Northern Ireland look at pulling out? Again for economic reasons, but they also have the border issue and renewal of conflict to think about. I believe they are currently pretty strong about remaining in the "empire", but would that change if the "empire" is diminished?

    Does Great Britain become England and Wales? Seems a bit of a misnomer. And their value as a trading partner, and therefore leverage in negotiating trade deals, is greatly diminished.

    From afar, it looks like by far the easiest and most sensible thing to do is call for a second referendum now that the details and implications of Brexit are clearer. Why is that barely considered as an option? Stupidity, pigheadedness, both, more? Or am I the one that is stupid? (Please be kind in response to the last question )
    Last edited by dudog84; 06-23-2019 at 09:30 AM. Reason: grammar and spelling

  7. #707
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    So here's a thought: The call for Scottish independence is close even without Boris, does leaving the EU also push them over the edge? Economically, would they be better off with the EU than England? .
    In the short term maybe, maybe not. In the long term, not a chance. Right now the Scottish economy can depend on oil/gas and fishing from the North Sea which could fuel the economy and fund government spending. In the future, those fields are drying up and Europe is making a push to reduce fossil fuels. Plus Scotland will have to take their share of the UK debt. Scotland will become dependent on funding from Westminster eventually. Nobody in the EU will do that. Also if they leave the UK, the Trident program (the UK's nuclear subs) leave too depriving them of an important industry.

    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    And then does Northern Ireland look at pulling out? Again for economic reasons, but they also have the border issue and renewal of conflict to think about. I believe they are currently pretty strong about remaining in the "empire", but would that change if the "empire" is diminished?
    Again they are dependent on Westminster for funding and because of the political situation governance. They can not stand as an independent and lets sayreunification will have issues...major, major issues.

    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    From afar, it looks like by far the easiest and most sensible thing to do is call for a second referendum now that the details and implications of Brexit are clearer. Why is that barely considered as an option? Stupidity, pigheadedness, both, more? Or am I the one that is stupid? (Please be kind in response to the last question )
    I'm all for a second referendum but again it might not solve anything. The main point against it is that there was a democratic vote that would be ignored. Yes the people were ill informed and misinformed and flat out lied to but they did vote. It was non binding so I'm OK with that. Then the problem is what question(s) do you ask? A single binary choice has been proven to be a colossal failure. Giving three options (Remain, Leave, Leave with deal) splits the vote. Have a series of votes: Leave/Remain -> Leave with this Deal/No Deal? It's a complete mess.

    Regardless of how this plays out there will be a significant portion of the people that will be mad.

  8. #708
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    ^ the Scotland situation sounds similar to that of Quebec...had Quebec left Canada, it would have had to take on a considerable amount of debt...and the notion that it could still use Canadian currency, depend upon the armed forces ("sovereignty association) was fanciful). Getting out is emotionally gratifying to some, but the logistics and ultimate ramifications are far from trivial.

  9. #709
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    So here's a thought: The call for Scottish independence is close even without Boris, does leaving the EU also push them over the edge? Economically, would they be better off with the EU than England? I assume the EU is a significantly larger trading partner, if less convenient.

    And then does Northern Ireland look at pulling out? Again for economic reasons, but they also have the border issue and renewal of conflict to think about. I believe they are currently pretty strong about remaining in the "empire", but would that change if the "empire" is diminished?

    Does Great Britain become England and Wales? Seems a bit of a misnomer. And their value as a trading partner, and therefore leverage in negotiating trade deals, is greatly diminished.

    From afar, it looks like by far the easiest and most sensible thing to do is call for a second referendum now that the details and implications of Brexit are clearer. Why is that barely considered as an option? Stupidity, pigheadedness, both, more? Or am I the one that is stupid? (Please be kind in response to the last question )
    The trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK is many times larger than the trade between Scotland and the rest of the EU.

    From a GOV.UK web site:
    The Scottish Government’s annual trade statistics (‘Export Statistics Scotland’) show that in 2016 Scotland exported more than £45 billion in goods and services to England, Wales and Northern Ireland – while exports to the EU total £12.7 billion.
    I think, with respect to Scottish independence, cooler heads may be prevailing.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  10. #710
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Much appreciation for the informed responses.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Regardless of how this plays out there will be a significant portion of the people that will be mad.
    The outcome of every election ever. Or any anything ever.

  11. #711
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I think, with respect to Scottish independence, cooler heads may be prevailing.
    While I do not disagree, I note that Brexit is not in the short- or mid-term financial advantage of the UK. And yet it passed.

    The last referendum failed 55-45. Do these changes move 5% of the population or more?
    Last edited by OldPhiKap; 06-23-2019 at 01:10 PM.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  12. #712
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    While I do not disagree, I note that Brexit is not in the short- or mid-term financial advantage of the UK. And yet it passed.

    The last referendum failed 55-45. Do these changes move 5% of the population or more?
    Scotland voted 62 - 38 to remain in the EU. Heh heh, what does that tell you?

  13. #713
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    Sep 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Scotland voted 62 - 38 to remain in the EU. Heh heh, what does that tell you?
    Yup. And Boris has said some nasty things about the Scots (at least per the Ian Blackford clip I linked above).

    Oh, and the ghost of William Wallace says hello as well.

    Northern Ireland is much more complicated. It cannot stand as an independent nation, and the Unionists are mortally opposed to being a minority part of a unified Republic of Ireland.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  14. #714
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    The last referendum failed 55-45. Do these changes move 5% of the population or more?
    A strong maybe. This process has hardened supports on both sides but the middle has shifted. Also, to put it bluntly, in three years some of the Leavers have died (they tended to be older) and new younger voters (who lean Remain) entered the pool. You also have some blocks like nurses who now realize that $350 million a week to the NHS was a lie. There’s even a shift in some rural areas.

  15. #715
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    Sep 2007
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    A good discussion of Scottish independence and Brexit:

    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  16. #716
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    Sep 2007
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    Ladies and gentlemen, then presumptive next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom:

    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  17. #717
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Ladies and gentlemen, then presumptive next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom:

    Best reaction was the BBC News host who asked “I wonder what he writes on the side of it.” referring to Johnson false claims on the pro Brexit bus.

    Really how do you screw up a softball question like that? The go to answer is “I read.” His handlers did a great job keeping him hidden in the early round of the vote.

  18. #718
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    For those keeping score at home:

    * 121 days until the hard-Brexit deadline
    * new PM will not be named in the next three weeks. August recess looms although it could be cancelled.
    * both candidates have said the deal needs to be renegotiated before the deadline or they will crash out -- no extensions without an agreement
    * both claim to know that the EU's position has "softened" although there is little external evidence to support this claim
    * AFAIK there is no new proposal to deal with the Irish border beyond those which have been raised and rejected (or for which there is no practical manner to implement)

    So, good luck with all that.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  19. #719
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    It does not help that EU leaders just met in Brussels to divvy up the top jobs, and they could hardly agree on anything..both Macron and Merkel had strong comments about how dysfunctional they were...certainly adds to the perception that the EU is hardly a smooth running operation...

  20. #720
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Brexit Problems Have Already Started

    The effects of the Brexit threat or reality are already being felt in the UK.

    From the Guardian:

    There are thousands of businesses across Britain treading water, waiting for the Brexit fog to clear. They have stockpiled mountains of goods to offset delays at the ports and, if they are manufacturers, rented warehouses to store parts and raw materials... This survival instinct and the hope of a sensible deal is why most firms are hanging on to their staff and why Britain can still boast having a near-record level of employment.

    It might seem bizarre that companies are retaining high levels of staff when surveys ... showed that all sectors of the economy had stopped growing in June and some, including the manufacturing and construction industries, were shrinking.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

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