Brexit & British Politics

[SoCalDukeFan]

Yup.

Cameron called for the Brexit referendum because he thought it would fail. Massive miscalculation which lit the fuse on this inevitable dumpster fire.

May called for the 2017 snap election because she thought the Tories would gain seats, and it would strengthen her hand in negotiating with the EU. Massive miscalculation.

May did not try to come up with a compromise after being knocked out of the majority in the 2017 election, instead figuring that she could come up with a plan that would unify the Tories enough to get it over the line. Massive delusion.

May pursued a backstop Brexit when her governing co-partners, the DUP, told her from the beginning that they would not support it. Massive hubris.

And to be balanced -- Jeremy Corbyn has waffled beyond the point of knowing where "his" party stands, and has simply stood in opposition without really leading an organized counter-proposal. Massively unhelpful.

No wonder the UK citizens are fed up with their government, and the EU is fed up with the UK in general.

I fully agree that Cameron's massive miscalculation lit the fuse on the dumpster fire. After that, May may have made mistakes but I am not sure that there was much she could have done to make this work.

SoCal

[OldPhiKap]

I fully agree that Cameron's massive miscalculation lit the fuse on the dumpster fire. After that, May may have made mistakes but I am not sure that there was much she could have done to make this work.

SoCal

I think this is right, because there is no agreement on what “Brexit” really means or how it would be accomplished as a practical matter. May was likely doomed to failure. But she really did not even try to reach a Commons-wide consensus until very recently — maybe things would have had a chance if she spent the last three years trying to reach a consensus.

Of course, had she tried to do so, the Tories likely would have removed her a long time ago.

Others with better info may have better views, but that’s how it seems from here.

[sagegrouse]

I think this is right, because there is no agreement on what “Brexit” really means or how it would be accomplished as a practical matter. May was likely doomed to failure. But she really did not even try to reach a Commons-wide consensus until very recently — maybe things would have had a chance if she spent the last three years trying to reach a consensus.

Of course, had she tried to do so, the Tories likely would have removed her a long time ago.

Others with better info may have better views, but that’s how it seems from here.

Well, the UK has been a member of the EU or its predecessor for 46 years. The purpose of the Common Market or now the European Union is to integrate the economies of the member countries. For better or worse, it largely succeeded in doing so. Now, as it turns out, the "dis-integration" of the UK from the rest of Europe is major surgery. It will be very painful and have a long period of recovery.

[OldPhiKap]

Who will be the next PM?

I’m a fan of the folks at “tl;dr“ so I will let them set the stage on s very fluid race:

[budwom]

Who will be the next PM?

I’m a fan of the folks at “tl;dr“ so I will let them set the stage on s very fluid race:

good stuff. I fear that Boris will become the express train to a hard Brexit.

[JasonEvans]

good stuff. I fear that Boris will become the express train to a hard Brexit.

Boris is not, there are a lot of folks who think May's resignation makes a hard Brexit much much much more likely.

[budwom]

Boris is not, there are a lot of folks who think May's resignation makes a hard Brexit much much much more likely.

yeah, and one of the reasons is Boris...

[Kdogg]

The European Elections results are in.

For the UK:

Results show the country remains divided but they hate the Tories and Labour (a little less).

The Brexit Party got the most votes and thus the most seats in the European Parliament. Together the two hard Brexit groups (UKIP - Farrages' Old party and The Brexit Party - his new one) got 35% of the vote.

As a block, unambiguous Pro European parties (Lib Dem, Greens, UK Choice, SNP, Plaid Cymru) took the most votes 40%. It seems there is a steady majority Pro-Remain current in the UK.

The Conservation Party had it worst showing in a national election EVER!

Here's the interesting part. If a hard Brexitter does become PM they will have a difficult time pushing a No Deal through Parliament. In theory the PM doesn't need Parliament's approval for a No Deal exit. The PM can do what they want and Parliament has no legislative ways to stop them. Parliament does have one nuclear option: a vote of no confidence. It would require an unholy alliance of foes but a real possibility if No Deal is forced. Now we are at a general elections where over half (when including the Remain Tories and Labour) of the UK just supported pro-Remain parties in the EU election. Will Labour force Corbin (while he's kicking and screaming) to pivot to Pro-Remain? Will the new PM offer a second referendum rather they risk losing a general election?

Looking around the world, we are clearly seeing an emerging trend in democracies. India, Australia, the EU countries (France, Italy, Hungry, Holland, the UK among others) are seeing Nationalist parties gaining power. But less in the headlines, we are also seeing their polar opposite also emerging in the West. Whether it's because of lofty (unrealistic?) promises, the internet or backlash from austerity, inequality and economic malaise, people are turning away from the center. It seems the middle ground is crumping and we see more polarized governments. That's not generally a good thing if you want to see things get done.

[throatybeard]

Here's the interesting part. If a hard Brexitter does become PM they will have a difficult time pushing a No Deal through Parliament. In theory the PM doesn't need Parliament's approval for a No Deal exit. The PM can do what they want and Parliament has no legislative ways to stop them. Parliament does have one nuclear option: a vote of no confidence. It would require an unholy alliance of foes but a real possibility if No Deal is forced.

I thought No Deal was simply the default result. It doesn't actually need to be pushed through Parliament.

Right?

[chris13]

good stuff. I fear that Boris will become the express train to a hard Brexit.

Here's the list of leading contenders I saw the other day on the news.

dbr.jpg

[OldPhiKap]

As usual, tl;dr nails it:

[OldPhiKap]

As usual, tl;dr nails it (and explains why the new Tory leader may well just crash out of the EU despite national sentiment against it):

[Kdogg]

I thought No Deal was simply the default result. It doesn't actually need to be pushed through Parliament.

Right?

You are right. It’s the sleeping walking, do nothing default. But now there’s the chance for a majority in Parliament to push for a no confidence vote if the PM backs that path. Especially now that Labour backs a second referendum on any exit plan. Throw in the Libs, the Greens and pro remain Tories and there’s a real chance to force a general election. The best chance since this mess started.

[OldPhiKap]

now that Labour backs . . . .

Day late, quid short.

I don't see how the Tories elect anyone other than a person willing to just crash out. They are convinced that the source of their electoral ills is the failure to deliver some sort of Brexit already. They erupted when Theresa May suggested (gasp!) that cross-party negotiations were needed in order to get an agreement upon which the House of Commons could agree.

It seems to me that the two most likely scenarios are either a no-deal crash out, or a general election with a request to the EU for yet more time. Both are very messy propositions.

[sagegrouse]

Day late, quid short.

I don't see how the Tories elect anyone other than a person willing to just crash out. They are convinced that the source of their electoral ills is the failure to deliver some sort of Brexit already. They erupted when Theresa May suggested (gasp!) that cross-party negotiations were needed in order to get an agreement upon which the House of Commons could agree.

It seems to me that the two most likely scenarios are either a no-deal crash out, or a general election with a request to the EU for yet more time. Both are very messy propositions.

What may help Britain is that a "no-deal" Brexit is apparently bad for the EU countries that trade with Britain -- or so the EU believes.

[OldPhiKap]

What may help Britain is that a "no-deal" Brexit is apparently bad for the EU countries that trade with Britain -- or so the EU believes.

A88EDBC5-858D-4980-A8F0-6935E7826C24.jpg

“give us a better deal — or I’ll shoot myself”

[camion]

A88EDBC5-858D-4980-A8F0-6935E7826C24.jpg

“give us a better deal — or I’ll shoot myself”

I fear that the Brexiteers may not be dexterous enough to avoid shooting themselves.

[sagegrouse]

I fear that the Brexiteers may not be dexterous enough to avoid shooting themselves.

Articles yesterday offered the position that a pro-Brexiteer PM (Boris Johnson) could well march the UK toward a no-deal Brexit. Parliament would have a say, however, and would vote against it, with support of MP's from all parties -- including many Conservatives. Perhaps this would occur through a "no-confidence" vote that would trigger an election... and who knows what that would produce?

Meanwhile, the value of the pound in terms of dollars has sunk to 1.26, making travel to Britain more affordable.

Meanwhile, we are seeing the effects of Nigel Farage. As the NY Times says, "is the most effective and dangerous demagogue Britain has ever seen."

LONDON — Nigel Farage is the British crisis in human form. His party, the unambiguously named Brexit Party, which is hardly a party and didn’t exist six months ago, won nearly a third of the British vote in the recent European Parliament elections, putting it in first place and driving the shattered Conservative Party into fifth. Long underestimated, Mr. Farage has done more than any politician in a generation to yank British politics to the hard, nationalist right. He is one of the most effective and dangerous demagogues Britain has ever seen.

[Kdogg]

Perhaps this would occur through a "no-confidence" vote that would trigger an election... and who knows what that would produce?

Meanwhile, the value of the pound in terms of dollars has sunk to 1.26, making travel to Britain more affordable.

Meanwhile, we are seeing the effects of Nigel Farage. As the NY Times says, "is the most effective and dangerous demagogue Britain has ever seen."

A no confidence vote will lead to a general election. An election where the Tories will probably suffer big loses, so a rational Tory would try to avoid the No Deal scenario for self preservation. Some of these guys and gals campaigning to replace May are not rational. So, theoretically, if you are pro Remain you want the hardest Brexitter as PM which should lead to a general election or a second referendum that that PM might allow to stop the no confidence vote.

I support remain or if it comes to it, the softest Brexit. I say let Farage cry from the mountain top. The louder he get the more likely he runs the risk of uniting the pro Remainer.

[Kdogg]

I'm not putting much stock in it but a new poll today has the Lib Dems as the most popular party in the UK. The Brexit Party comes a close second.

https://www.businessinsider.com/youg...vatives-2019-5

It would be hard for a No Deal Brexit PM to avoid a general election and a possible loss. At minimum, it will give the Tories pause. Also prominent Tory and Chancellor of the Exchequer seems to be backing a second referendum to break the impasse. He's even willing to bring down the government to stop a hard Brexit.

https://news.sky.com/story/chancello...-deal-11731411

Also former deputy prime minister and high ranking Tory Michael Heseltine has the same warning to a No Deal PM.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...f-nigel-farage

So there are at least a few pragmatic, rational Tories willing to take a stand now that it will not hurt May. I think there are a lot more.