Brexit & British Politics

[dudog84]

Votes have been taken, results should be announced within the hour.

The PM is frozen by the extreme wing of her party that wants a hard Brexit. My guess is that there is a good chance for a softer Brexit to get a majority today. Which will split the Tories.

The votes today are nonbinding, but what can the PM do if a soft Brexit passes? Say no, and watch the whole thing crash out? David Cameron thought that giving the hard-liners their referendum would be the end of the matter, but that backfired. The schism between those hard-liners and the mainstream have not gone away, though. If a soft Brexit passes and is adopted, those folks will be apoplectic. The proposals most likely to pass still have free movement of people (i.e. not much restriction of immigration) and still have Brussels-dominated regulations. "Brexit in name only," really, it seems to me. (At least, as I understand the customs union proposal and the Common Market 2.0 proposal).

So does "soft" Brexit mean still in the EU for all intents and purposes, but no longer in the EU because they won't have voting rights? That seems worse than a crash out. I mean, will Brits be dumping tea into the Thames?

[Kdogg]

Well at least the madness continues for someone.

Nothing gets a majority. DUP votes with the hardliners. I think I liked it better when they were a fringe nutter party...well part of that may still be true.

[OldPhiKap]

So does "soft" Brexit mean still in the EU for all intents and purposes, but no longer in the EU because they won't have voting rights? That seems worse than a crash out. I mean, will Brits be dumping tea into the Thames?

Kinda sorta yeah.

Well at least the madness continues for someone.

Nothing gets a majority. DUP votes with the hardliners. I think I liked it better when they were a fringe nutter party...well part of that may still be true.

I thought DUP was going to abstain — did they affirmatively vote to tank them all?

————
For those keeping score at home, Parliament has:

Voted to invoke Article 50 forcing a Brexit
Then voted that under no circumstances will they leave without an agreement of some sort
Then refused to approve the negotiated exit agreement
Then refused to approve any alternative potential agreement to the negotiated exit
Then refused to put up a second referendum to reconsider the invocation of Aticle 50

In other words, they want to leave but want a leave agreement but cannot agree on what leave agreement they want but want someone else to figure it out because damnit they’re leaving anyway even though they don’t want to do it without an agreement.

So, good luck with all that mate. I’ll be in the pub watching cricket.

[Kdogg]

Kinda sorta yeah.

I thought DUP was going to abstain — did they affirmatively vote to tank them all?

So they kept staying all weekend. I thought good. It would give one of the options a fighting chance. Then they go vote against all of the four alternative Brexit options. The Customs Union would have passed if they abstained. Apparently NOW they want to no backstop AND to honor Brexit.

[OldPhiKap]

So they kept staying all weekend. I thought good. It would give one of the options a fighting chance. Then they go vote against all of the four alternative Brexit options. The Customs Union would have passed if they abstained. Apparently NOW they want to no backstop AND to honor Brexit.

Yeah, I don't get it. As you said, those 10 votes tanked the Customs Union proposal which only failed by 3. Even though it was a non-binding vote, it would at least give the UK something to go back to the EU with to show that they have a potential plan. I guess we will see what comes out of the Cabinet meeting that is going on right now.

I am supposed to transit into the UK from the Continent on the 14th, and then back out to the States on the 15th. This should be . . . interesting.

[Kdogg]

I am supposed to transit into the UK from the Continent on the 14th, and then back out to the States on the 15th. This should be . . . interesting.

I can't imagine you will be affected adversely. The US and UK already have a post Brexit aviation deal so as long as you can make it over the channel....

[OldPhiKap]

I can't imagine you will be affected adversely. The US and UK already have a post Brexit aviation deal so as long as you can make it over the channel....

Is it too cold this time of year to swim it?

[JasonEvans]

May is supposedly about to announce... something... lots of folks think this could be big. She has been meeting with her cabinet for like 5 hours. Some speculation she will call for new elections, though that would likely result in a crushing defeat for her party. Many other European leaders are saying it looks like we are headed for a no-deal Brexit, which could send the UK economy into a depression.

Saw this on twitter:

It’s literally The Hunger Games in there. They’re waiting for ministers to volunteer as tributes then fight to the death. Last man or woman standing takes the full blame for Brexit then eats poison berries.

[OldPhiKap]

May is supposedly about to announce... something... lots of folks think this could be big. She has been meeting with her cabinet for like 5 hours. Some speculation she will call for new elections, though that would likely result in a crushing defeat for her party. Many other European leaders are saying it looks like we are headed for a no-deal Brexit, which could send the UK economy into a depression.

Saw this on twitter:

Just watched her statement, and perhaps I missed something -- but is her big idea to sit down with Jeremy Corbin and see if they can work something out?

Good lord, isn't that what she SHOULD HAVE BEEN DOING FOR TWO YEARS NOW?!?

[OldPhiKap]

Just watched her statement, and perhaps I missed something -- but is her big idea to sit down with Jeremy Corbin and see if they can work something out?

Good lord, isn't that what she SHOULD HAVE BEEN DOING FOR TWO YEARS NOW?!?

*Corbyn

[JasonEvans]

*Corbyn

[OldPhiKap]

That is too funny!

There are a number of John Bercow videos like that -- I have watched Prime Minister's Questions since Thatcher was the PM and am always fascinated by the Speaker. Bercow has been an entertaining one (as far as that goes).

[Kdogg]

This is actually slightly positive news. May finally does the math. I wonder how much wine she had to down to eat that much crow. The Tories are her life so this is a big step for her personally but as stated above something she should have done ages ago. I wondered if and when she would put country before party.

You figure that she will loose 25-35 percent of the Tories by softening Brexit and finding a compromise with Corbyn. Labour will loose 15-20 percent of the pro Brexit wing but that gives her the numbers. Labour has shown they can whip their MPs better than the Tories so it might not loose many votes. The problem is Corbyn. He will actually have to sit down and cobble out some unholy compromise to save the UK. Again good luck with that. This is the Never Ending Story: Brexit edition.

[JasonEvans]

This is actually slightly positive news. May finally does the math. I wonder how much wine she had to down to eat that much crow. The Tories are her life so this is a big step for her personally but as stated above something she should have done ages ago. I wondered if and when she would put country before party.

You figure that she will loose 25-35 percent of the Tories by softening Brexit and finding a compromise with Corbyn. Labour will loose 15-20 percent of the pro Brexit wing but that gives her the numbers. Labour has shown they can whip their MPs better than the Tories so it might not loose many votes. The problem is Corbyn. He will actually have to sit down and cobble out some unholy compromise to save the UK. Again good luck with that. This is the Never Ending Story: Brexit edition.

I cannot think of any reason Corbyn would do this.

Without a compromise May has 2 choices--
1) Crash out with a no-deal Brexit
2) Call a new General Election in the hope that a new parliament will be able to come together better

In #1, she probably dooms the UK economy to recession and perhaps worse. Only a small percentage of die-hard Brexiteers are happy with this. The next time the nation votes, Labour likely wins a controlling percentage of Parliament and Corbyn is Prime Minister.

In #2, Labour likely wins a controlling percentage of Parliamnt and Corbyn is Prime Minister.

The only way Corbyn does not get control the next time the country votes is if May somehow steers the UK ship to a safe and non-controversial Brexit port. Today, she essentially agreed that the only way she can do this is with Corbyn's help.

So, what is his incentive to help her? I suppose she may threaten him with a no deal Brexit and plead with him to pick country over party and not allow a no deal to happen, but I suspect he would call that bluff.

And the hysterical part is that she said the deal she cut with Europe cannot be changed. There are aspects of that deal that Corbyn does not like. What exactly is she going to give him when her deal in inflexible?

-Jason "my bet is that Britain will be staging a general election (or perhaps a vote on the Brexit deal) inside of 3 months" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

I cannot think of any reason Corbyn would do this.

Without a compromise May has 2 choices--
1) Crash out with a no-deal Brexit
2) Call a new General Election in the hope that a new parliament will be able to come together better

In #1, she probably dooms the UK economy to recession and perhaps worse. Only a small percentage of die-hard Brexiteers are happy with this. The next time the nation votes, Labour likely wins a controlling percentage of Parliament and Corbyn is Prime Minister.

In #2, Labour likely wins a controlling percentage of Parliamnt and Corbyn is Prime Minister.

The only way Corbyn does not get control the next time the country votes is if May somehow steers the UK ship to a safe and non-controversial Brexit port. Today, she essentially agreed that the only way she can do this is with Corbyn's help.

So, what is his incentive to help her? I suppose she may threaten him with a no deal Brexit and plead with him to pick country over party and not allow a no deal to happen, but I suspect he would call that bluff.

And the hysterical part is that she said the deal she cut with Europe cannot be changed. There are aspects of that deal that Corbyn does not like. What exactly is she going to give him when her deal in inflexible?

-Jason "my bet is that Britain will be staging a general election (or perhaps a vote on the Brexit deal) inside of 3 months" Evans

Flip side (not sure I believe every this, but as a Devl’s Advocate):

1. If Corbyn — who has been braying about being cut out of the process — tanks things, he may get equal if not greater blame for the crash-out. “He was hot air all along, and not a good faith participant”

2. Alternatively, if they agree to a softer Brexit, Corbyn can claim to have saved Brexit by finally getting the PM to listen to what is likely a more popular form of Brexit. “Finally we see what happens when Corbyn leads”

[Kdogg]

I cannot think of any reason Corbyn would do this.

Without a compromise May has 2 choices--
1) Crash out with a no-deal Brexit
2) Call a new General Election in the hope that a new parliament will be able to come together better

In #1, she probably dooms the UK economy to recession and perhaps worse. Only a small percentage of die-hard Brexiteers are happy with this. The next time the nation votes, Labour likely wins a controlling percentage of Parliament and Corbyn is Prime Minister.

In #2, Labour likely wins a controlling percentage of Parliamnt and Corbyn is Prime Minister.

The only way Corbyn does not get control the next time the country votes is if May somehow steers the UK ship to a safe and non-controversial Brexit port. Today, she essentially agreed that the only way she can do this is with Corbyn's help.

So, what is his incentive to help her? I suppose she may threaten him with a no deal Brexit and plead with him to pick country over party and not allow a no deal to happen, but I suspect he would call that bluff.

And the hysterical part is that she said the deal she cut with Europe cannot be changed. There are aspects of that deal that Corbyn does not like. What exactly is she going to give him when her deal in inflexible?

-Jason "my bet is that Britain will be staging a general election (or perhaps a vote on the Brexit deal) inside of 3 months" Evans

Corbyn’s a die hard Eurosceptic so for him personally, I believe he would be fine with a hard Brexit. He’s been anti EU for fourth years...against everything and ever major treaty. I think he realizes the pain it would cause his electorate so he would try to minimize that. If he works out a compromised soft Brexit he too is eating crow. Corbyn’s being playing politics the whole time but escaping criticism. May’s finally turn up the heat on him so if things come crashing down he will hold some blame. The guy walked out of a PM Brexit meeting last week because someone from the new Independent Group was there. Who does that with the country on the edge? Corbyn ,now has to at least give the impression of doing some work.

Calling a general election would require a no confidence vote or a supermajority in Parliament. Neither guaranteed for either. Even if they have one there’s no guarantee they won’t be in this same position again.

[OldPhiKap]

Well, this exchange at PMQ within the hour likely won’t help:

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/stat...856118272?s=21

Or this one:

https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/stat...127930880?s=21

[OldPhiKap]

How Brexit is this? Vote today on whether the House should again take control of the agenda to have more indicative votes.

The motion tied, 310-310.

The Speaker voted "no" to defeat the motion, citing long-standing precedent that absent a majority of the House the motion should fail.

[Kdogg]

The Cooper Bill just passed by 1 vote meaning no-deal scenario is legally not allowed by British law. I wonder if any one asked the EU. Unless May’s deal passes look for a long extension, bickering, backstabbing and incompetence. On the flip side this increases the chances for a Second Referendum.

[sagegrouse]

The Cooper Bill just passed by 1 vote meaning no-deal scenario is legally not allowed by British law. I wonder if any one asked the EU. Unless May’s deal passes look for a long extension, bickering, backstabbing and incompetence. On the flip side this increases the chances for a Second Referendum.

Does the new law mean that Britain would have to withdraw its Article 50 declaration? I assume it's really just a roadblock that will get lifted in favor of something more definitive.