Brexit & British Politics

[OldPhiKap]

Good article on upcoming indicative votes:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47671056

[Kdogg]

May ready to fall on her sword to get her deal passed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/ther...-minister.html

[budwom]

May ready to fall on her sword to get her deal passed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/ther...-minister.html

do you think that will matter? I'm not sure how that changes the vote, though it sure changes a lot of other stuff.

[Kdogg]

do you think that will matter? I'm not sure how that changes the vote, though it sure changes a lot of other stuff.

I don’t think it will matter. The plan is still the same that’s been rejected twice. Apparently the pro-pro-Brexit wing of the Tories (why they call themselves the European Research Group I don’t know) said they may now support it. That still doesn’t give her the numbers. Without the DUP and borderline pro-Remainers returning it still not a majority. We’ve come to the point where no plan can get a majority.

[howardlander]

I don’t think it will matter. The plan is still the same that’s been rejected twice.

And the Speaker of the House is STILL saying that there will not be a third vote on the plan without major alterations. No talk of a new parliamentary session either. Dog: meet tail...

[OldPhiKap]

I don’t think it will matter. The plan is still the same that’s been rejected twice. Apparently the pro-pro-Brexit wing of the Tories (why they call themselves the European Research Group I don’t know) said they may now support it. That still doesn’t give her the numbers. Without the DUP and borderline pro-Remainers returning it still not a majority. We’ve come to the point where no plan can get a majority.

We should have the results of the various indicative votes in about 30-60 minutes I think. The voting is done, they are tallying the votes.

While these are not binding, any option that does better than May's deal is probably a contender and anything close to a majority may get over the top on Monday (the binding vote) -- unless May's bill passes on Friday.

[Kdogg]

16:52
DUP leader: 'We will not be supporting' May's deal.

Well that’s settled unless there are some rogue Labour MPs out there.

[OldPhiKap]

16:52
DUP leader: 'We will not be supporting' May's deal.

Well that’s settled unless there are some rogue Labour MPs out there.

Full DUP statement:

"The DUP and the Government have had good discussions in recent days and some progress on domestic legislation has been made.

"All concerned recognise the need to ensure that as we leave the European Union the economic and constitutional integrity of the United Kingdom is maintained.

"However, given the fact that the necessary changes we seek to the backstop have not been secured between the Government and the European Union, and the remaining and ongoing strategic risk that Northern Ireland would be trapped in backstop arrangements at the end of the implementation period, we will not be supporting the Government if they table a fresh meaningful vote.

"The backstop if operational has the potential to create an internal trade border within the United Kingdom and would cut us off from our main internal market, being Great Britain.

"We want to secure the United Kingdom's departure from, and our future relationship with, the European Union on terms that accord with our key objectives to ensure the integrity of the United Kingdom.

"In our view the current withdrawal agreement does not do so and the backstop, which we warned this Government against from its first inception, poses an unacceptable threat to the integrity of the United Kingdom and will inevitably limit the United Kingdom's ability to negotiate on the type of future relationship with the EU."

[Kdogg]

Surprise, surprise. There is no majority in Parliament for anything. Second referendum did much much better than I thought and customs union might have a chance with some pressure from the Remainers. The drama continues.

Winston Churchill once said, “You can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have tried everything else.” I’m not sure if the reciprocal is true for the Brits but we will find out.

[OldPhiKap]

Third attempt to get May's Brexit bill through Parliament set for vote tomorrow, likely around 10:30 am edt. Result I assume will be 15 or so minutes after the division.

As of now, Labour is against and DUP still says they are not supporting it. Passage not likely but it's crumpet-cutting time.

[Kdogg]

Third attempt to get May's Brexit bill through Parliament set for vote tomorrow, likely around 10:30 am edt. Result I assume will be 15 or so minutes after the division.

As of now, Labour is against and DUP still says they are not supporting it. Passage not likely but it's crumpet-cutting time.

What’s Einstein’s definition of insanity?

[OldPhiKap]

What’s Einstein’s definition of insanity?

Yeah, true. I think there are two reasons she is doing it:

1. Part of the EU extension was on the condition that the UK would have a vote this week on her plan.

2. May figured that if she offered to resign, it would bring the hard-line Brexiteers along. That, and that some of them would come along because the alternative appears to be a much softer Common Market 2.0 Brexit that almost passed yesterday. But if she cannot get DUP on board, I don't see it happening (not sure that is decided yet even though the DUP says it's done talking to #10).

If this passes tomorrow, that's it. If it does not, there will likely be a vote on Common Market 2.0 Monday.

If both fail, who knows. General election and/or crash-out Brexit?

[Kdogg]

This whole mess defies logic so who knows is right. It’s a 1000 year old Parliamentary system and they can’t come to any consensus. These people have literally rejected every single type of Brexit and even no Brexit. I wonder if the MPs punt to the people and have a second vote. At least they can avoid the blame.

[OldPhiKap]

This whole mess defies logic so who knows is right. It’s a 1000 year old Parliamentary system and they can’t come to any consensus. These people have literally rejected every single type of Brexit and even no Brexit. I wonder if the MPs punt to the people and have a second vote. At least they can avoid the blame.

They rejected that option yesterday, too.

It seems the only way out (assuming no agreement on May's deal or Common Market 2.0) is to call a general election and see if shuffling the MPs does anything. Probably results in even more stalemate I guess, but it is clear that the current lot in Westminster cannot govern cohesively on the single biggest issue to face the UK since WW II.

[OldPhiKap]

Debate on bill to leave just ended and Speaker has declared division. Should know in about 15 minutes . . . .

. . . . and it goes down, 344-286. Default is a crash out on April 12.

[howardlander]

Debate on bill to leave just ended and Speaker has declared division. Should know in about 15 minutes . . . .

. . . . and it goes down, 344-286. Default is a crash out on April 12.

Well, it's getting closer, maybe they can vote on it a couple of more times before April 12...

[JasonEvans]

A BBC commentator spoke to a member of May's cabinet about the mood in the government. These comments are too awesome (but be warned that he drops an "F-bomb"):

https://twitter.com/JasonDukeEvans/s...18093053743104

[Kdogg]

Well May’s deal is gaining about 80 more votes each time so when it goes for a fourth time next week is should pass. 😀

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eal-third-time

At some point I expect Sinn Féin to show up and take their seats just to screw with her. At this point, it’s as likely as anything else.

[dudog84]

This is "interesting". Parliament comes up with 4 new options...and the PM rejects all of them. How does she even have influence anymore?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...x45?li=BBnbfcL

[OldPhiKap]

This is "interesting". Parliament comes up with 4 new options...and the PM rejects all of them. How does she even have influence anymore?

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...x45?li=BBnbfcL

Votes have been taken, results should be announced within the hour.

The PM is frozen by the extreme wing of her party that wants a hard Brexit. My guess is that there is a good chance for a softer Brexit to get a majority today. Which will split the Tories.

The votes today are nonbinding, but what can the PM do if a soft Brexit passes? Say no, and watch the whole thing crash out? David Cameron thought that giving the hard-liners their referendum would be the end of the matter, but that backfired. The schism between those hard-liners and the mainstream have not gone away, though. If a soft Brexit passes and is adopted, those folks will be apoplectic. The proposals most likely to pass still have free movement of people (i.e. not much restriction of immigration) and still have Brussels-dominated regulations. "Brexit in name only," really, it seems to me. (At least, as I understand the customs union proposal and the Common Market 2.0 proposal).