Brexit & British Politics

[Kdogg]

Apparently May’s presentation was so bad some of the ministers realized her deal has no chance in passing. They are trying to get Tusk to drop the demand. It’s the first real crack I’ve seen in the EU front but at least those ministers live in this reality.

[wilson]

Let's be honest, we're all hoping for #2 aren't we? We're all rubberneckers at heart, no?

I'm traveling from London to Paris on April 1, so no.

[OldPhiKap]

I'm traveling from London to Paris on April 1, so no.

I’ll be in Paris a few days later, looking for a place to watch the games. At some crazy late hour.

[Kdogg]

I'm traveling from London to Paris on April 1, so no.

I’ll be in Paris a few days later, looking for a place to watch the games. At some crazy late hour.

Looks like both of you will be good. New deadline April 12. (Let’s be honest. No way Parliament passes the May Deal know.) Three more weeks of this junk.

[OldPhiKap]

Looks like both of you will be good. New deadline April 12. (Let’s be honest. No way Parliament passes the May Deal know.) Three more weeks of this junk.

Well, I don’t fly back to the States until the 15th/16th and go through Manchester. But that is an overnight layover which concerns me less than my four hour connection in Manchester going over.

So, I’ve got that going for me. Which is nice.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Big anti-Brexit rally in London today. Lots of voices calling for another referendum vote.

[OldPhiKap]

Big anti-Brexit rally in London today. Lots of voices calling for another referendum vote.

Images and article:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47678763

Can May avoid resignation?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Images and article:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47678763

Can May avoid resignation?

This morning, the numbers were reported in the tens of thousands. A couple hours later that had upped to the hundreds of thousands. Now it is reported at close to one million.

[OldPhiKap]

This morning, the numbers were reported in the tens of thousands. A couple hours later that had upped to the hundreds of thousands. Now it is reported at close to one million.

And over 4 million have signed the on-line petition to debate revocation of Article 50.

[OldPhiKap]

“BBC reporter” Jonathan Pie updates us on Brexit (language not suitable for work or children):

https://youtu.be/-IL2XwSkFJQ

[CameronBornAndBred]

“BBC reporter” Jonathan Pie updates us on Brexit (language not suitable for work or children):

https://youtu.be/-IL2XwSkFJQ

No one wants the jet ski, Theresa.

[Kdogg]

“BBC reporter” Jonathan Pie updates us on Brexit (language not suitable for work or children):

https://youtu.be/-IL2XwSkFJQ

The guys not wrong and I agree. I feel sad.

[budwom]

Quite an article in The New Yorker about Russki involvement in the Brexit vote...Vlad has a whole lot of busy bees over there...

[OldPhiKap]

DUP apparently still opposed to the May deal, which would mean it essentially is a dead letter.

Can anyone point me to exactly what the DUP wants? I know they oppose the backstop as presented in the deal but not sure what its preferred manner of dealing with the Irish border situation is. Is it that they want a drop-dead date by which the backstop will terminate regardless of potential objection by the EU?

[Kdogg]

DUP apparently still opposed to the May deal, which would mean it essentially is a dead letter.

Can anyone point me to exactly what the DUP wants? I know they oppose the backstop as presented in the deal but not sure what its preferred manner of dealing with the Irish border situation is. Is it that they want a drop-dead date by which the backstop will terminate regardless of potential objection by the EU?

It’s actually a simple request that’s proven difficult to achieve. The DUP doesn’t want to be treated differently than the rest of the UK in the future. They are a part of the UK and want to remain a part of the UK in all things.

Nobody wants a hard border in Ireland. Nobody. Also, The Good Friday acccords basically requires the border to be open. Still there has to be customs check unless the UK remains in the customs union. The backstop basically says if we can’t agree on terms during the transition period, we will keep going on the current course until we do. No customs check. So the UK remains tied to the EU but has no say and can’t sign trade deals with other countries.

Great Britain is an island so they can regulate things coming and going and already have customs facilities. So they can deal with new checks. North Ireland does not on the land border. Those buildings were abandoned twenty years ago and plus they want an open, frictionless board which would be a problem with customs stations. When they can not find a technology solution (because Boris, it’s imaginary) the next logical solution is to make the Irish Sea the defacto border. Well the only way to do that is keep N Ireland in a customs union with the EU. That breaks the UK into N Ireland and Great Britain.

The DUP fear that at the end of the transition period, that be the only option for Westminster to “free the UK from the EU.” It would treat then different though. The Pro Brexiteers would be throwing them under the bus. They would remain closer to the EU. They would be subjugated to the EU regulations (with no say.) You would have increased talk of reunionification with Ireland. Etc...All thing the DUP do not want. This may be their one and only chance to determine their fate. There are no guarantees they will hold power after new elections.

So their only request is to be be treated like the rest of the country. Admittedly this is all theoretical. The UK and EU could come to terms on a trade deal with no customs checks but it’s unlikely. The EU is fearful the UK will strike low/no tariff deals with other countries. Then those counties would use the UK as a nexus to bring their goods into the EU bypassing the trade agreements on file.

[OldPhiKap]

It’s actually a simple request that’s proven difficult to achieve. The DUP doesn’t want to be treated differently than the rest of the UK in the future. They are a part of the UK and want to remain a part of the UK in all things.

Nobody wants a hard border in Ireland. Nobody. Also, The Good Friday acccords basically requires the border to be open. Still there has to be customs check unless the UK remains in the a customs union. The backstop basically says if we can’t agree on terms during the transition period, we will keep going on the current course until we do. No customs check. So the UK remains tied to the EU but has no say and can’t sign trade deals with other countries.

Great Britain is an island so they can regulate things coming and going and already have customs facilities. So they can deal with it. North Ireland does not on the land border. Those buildings were abandoned twenty years ago and plus they want an open, frictionless board which would be a problem with customs stations. When they can not find a technology solution (because Boris, it’s imaginary) the next logical solution is to make the Irish Sea the defacto border. Well the only way to do that is keep N Ireland in a customs union with the EU. That breaks the UK into N Ireland and Great Britain.

The DUP fear that at the end of the transition period, that be the only option for Westminster to “free the UK from the EU.” It would treat then different though. They would remain closer to the EU. They would be subjugated to the EU regulations (with no say.) You would have increased talk of reunionification with Ireland. Etc...

So their only request is to be be treated like the rest of the country. Admittedly this is all theoretical. The UK and EU could come to terms on a trade deal with no customs checks but it’s unlikely. The EU is fearful the UK will strike low/no tariff deals with other countries. Then those counties would use the UK as a nexus to bring their goods into the EU bypassing the trade agreements on file.

Thanks. The problem of course is that the EU has always insisted on obtaining a Brexit divorce deal first before turning to the more difficult question of future trade. And given how difficult the first "easy" step is, the next one would be beastly. Either way is a leap of faith in the future for Northern Ireland, because (as you rightly note) the technology necessary to have frictionless transit across the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not exist.

So, I guess the real question is who Belfast trusts more -- London to not sell it out, or Brussels to work in good faith to let the UK leave? Sounds like the answer is "neither," which I get given the tumult that is Irish history. But they can't have it both ways -- the border is either the Irish Sea or it is a land border around the northern 6 counties on the island of Ireland.

[Kdogg]

Thanks. The problem of course is that the EU has always insisted on obtaining a Brexit divorce deal first before turning to the more difficult question of future trade. And given how difficult the first "easy" step is, the next one would be beastly. Either way is a leap of faith in the future for Northern Ireland, because (as you rightly note) the technology necessary to have frictionless transit across the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland does not exist.

So, I guess the real question is who Belfast trusts more -- London to not sell it out, or Brussels to work in good faith to let the UK leave? Sounds like the answer is "neither," which I get given the tumult that is Irish history. But they can't have it both ways -- the border is either the Irish Sea or it is a land border around the northern 6 counties on the island of Ireland.

I think the main problem is the UK doesn’t know what it wants just what it doesn’t want. Not only do they want their cake and eat it too, they want to test every single variant like going to a wedding cake tasting.

[OldPhiKap]

I think the main problem is the UK doesn’t know what it wants just what it doesn’t want. Not only do they want their cake and eat it too, they want to test every single variant like going to a wedding cake tasting.

Yup, and Theresa May impeding indicative votes doesn’t help.

It seems the only way out is a general election — but that extends things with no guarantee of a clearer picture either. What a mess.

[OldPhiKap]

Yup, and Theresa May impeding indicative votes doesn’t help.

It seems the only way out is a general election — but that extends things with no guarantee of a clearer picture either. What a mess.

Parliament, over government’s opposition, just wrested some control over Brexit. There will be a series of non binding indicative votes Wednesday, for MPs to indicate what sort of path forward they would support.

May is toast.

[OldPhiKap]

Good summation of where things stand, via CNN:

https://www.cnn.com/uk/live-news/bre...27ad531995a1bf