Brexit & British Politics

[howardlander]

What the hell was that? She just restated what she’s been saying for two weeks and it’s Parliament’s fault. Well you can’t whip your members in line. That’s on you lady. At this point I think everyone (May, the MPs, the EU, France) is just playing a high stakes poker game with every one holding a pair of twos. They are all bluffing and heading for the No Deal cliff.

Yeah, I'm even more confused than ever now. How can there even be a third vote when the Speaker says no? No Deal looks to be almost a sure thing at this point. I'm not sure the EU is bluffing though: is there any indication they would be unhappy with "No Deal"? As Dan HIcks said "How can I miss you if you won't go away?".

[OldPhiKap]

What the hell was that? She just restated what she’s been saying for two weeks and it’s Parliament’s fault. Well you can’t whip your members in line. That’s on you lady. At this point I think everyone (May, the MPs, the EU, France) is just playing a high stakes poker game with every one holding a pair of twos. They are all bluffing and heading for the No Deal cliff.

Not sure the UK is bluffing, so much as being paralyzed by lack of consensus.

They are faced with three options:

1. Take May's deal, and leave in an orderly fashion in the near future.
2. Reject May's deal, and crash out next Friday.
3. Cancel Brexit.

I don't think they can get 50% of Parliament to agree to any of those. In fact, all three were voted down separately. So it points towards the default -- crash out next Friday.

As for the EU, I am not so sure they are bluffing either so much as fed up with the UK. The EU has been emphatic throughout that the deal they offered is the only deal there is going to be, so what is the purpose of delay if all the UK wants is a different deal? Plus EU elections are in May, so the UK must either fish or cut bait before that time. Everything is on pause while this drama consumes the continent, and there's stuff to be done. So you might as well pull the bandage off as quickly as possible and get back to work.

It is possible that this is all high-stakes brinksmanship. May is so weak, though, that I don't know if she could deliver on anything she might promise.

[Kdogg]

Yeah, I'm even more confused than ever now. How can there even be a third vote when the Speaker says no? No Deal looks to be almost a sure thing at this point. I'm not sure the EU is bluffing though: is there any indication they would be unhappy with "No Deal"? As Dan HIcks said "How can I miss you if you won't go away?".

They just have to end this session of Parliament and start another one to re-vote. So that’s doable.

The EU would be very unhappy with a No Deal. Although it would end the drama and uncertainty, it would cause immediate harm to a EU member (Ireland). It would also create a $50 Billion hole in their long term budget without the UK’s divorce payment. That would be litigated for years. Then there are still a ton of exports that go to the UK. That’s going to hurt many industries from farming to manufacturing. Also things like air travel, cell phone roaming, drug approval, EU citizens living in the UK and the hundred of other things that were to be addressed during the transition period. Literally everyone has something significant to lose here. My kingdom for a pragmatist.

[howardlander]

They just have to end this session of Parliament and start another one to re-vote. So that’s doable.

Wait, they can just declare a new session without an election? Would they need a majority vote for that?

[Kdogg]

Wait, they can just declare a new session without an election? Would they need a majority vote for that?

Sessions of Parliament are usually 12 months long (from spring to spring) but have no set time. They could call it early, close this session and start another one to allow the vote on May's deal again. that's not a loop hole or anything. I'm not sure they would have time for the pomp and circumstance though of opening a new session.

This mess has gotten so bad people are scouring 500 years of laws looking for real loop holes. Yesterday I saw people citing rulings from the 1800's saying the Queen could cancel it. That one saying Parliament could. Eight days to go.

[YmoBeThere]

They are faced with three options:

1. Take May's deal, and leave in an orderly fashion in the near future.
2. Reject May's deal, and crash out next Friday.
3. Cancel Brexit.

Let's be honest, we're all hoping for #2 aren't we? We're all rubberneckers at heart, no?

[budwom]

Queen Victoria and Albert would have settled this mess in a jiffy.
Why the populace hasn't thrown David Cameron into the Thames is beyond me, the Brits are still pretty civil.

[OldPhiKap]

Let's be honest, we're all hoping for #2 aren't we? We're all rubberneckers at heart, no?

But for the fact that I have to transit through Manchester on the way to the Continent in fifteen days, yeah in a way. But the lines at customs are gonna be awful. . . .

Oh, and it could cause a global economic disruption which plunges the world economy into recession. That's a bit of a bother.

But, in a way, yeah. This is like when I was a kid, waiting to see Evel Knievel jump the Snake River Canyon in his rocket car. Probably will end the same way too.

[camion]

Let's be honest, we're all hoping for #2 aren't we? We're all rubberneckers at heart, no?

I would be interested in seeing this.

But in an alternate universe where I could watch without having it affect me. I don't think that option is available.

[JasonEvans]

This is like when I was a kid, waiting to see Evel Knievel jump the Snake River Canyon in his rocket car. Probably will end the same way too.

Except with no emergency parachute...

[OldPhiKap]

Except with no emergency parachute...

Yup. Unless one considers the WTO default provisions to be a parachute, because it is my understanding that those guidelines will apply to trading with the UK absent specific trade agreements. And that is a topic wholly out of my depths presently.

(Thanks for the photo -- brings me back some years. I'm sure we all had the hand-crank-and-release Evil Knievel motor cycle thing that looked great on commercials but never really worked. The only thing that was worse was the vibrating football field thing where you spent five minutes setting up your players and moving the tabs on the base to steer each player, only to have that incredibly loud vibrating noise and watching everyone fall over. Forget trying to throw a pass).

[mkirsh]

Yup. Unless one considers the WTO default provisions to be a parachute, because it is my understanding that those guidelines will apply to trading with the UK absent specific trade agreements. And that is a topic wholly out of my depths presently.

(Thanks for the photo -- brings me back some years. I'm sure we all had the hand-crank-and-release Evil Knievel motor cycle thing that looked great on commercials but never really worked. The only thing that was worse was the vibrating football field thing where you spent five minutes setting up your players and moving the tabs on the base to steer each player, only to have that incredibly loud vibrating noise and watching everyone fall over. Forget trying to throw a pass).

Thanks for the memories - I had totally forgotten about that thing! Mine worked great - I mean, the handle part fell apart all the time, but I could snap it back together quickly and launch the motorcycle. Good times!

[Kdogg]

I would be interested in seeing this.

But in an alternate universe where I could watch without having it affect me. I don't think that option is available.

I'd join you in that alternate universe to see how it would play out. And I would bring the popcorn and beer. It would be interesting from an academic stand point. In this reality, I would prefer to avoid it but it's not longing good.

Yup. Unless one considers the WTO default provisions to be a parachute, because it is my understanding that those guidelines will apply to trading with the UK absent specific trade agreements. And that is a topic wholly out of my depths presently.

I don't know if trade is the biggest practical issue if there's no deal. It's received, by far, the most attention but you are right. Things would revert to WTO rules and custom checks for EU/UK products would start. It would just slow import/exports, increase prices and increase smuggling. That can be manged. There are so many other things like travel (who needs a Visa!), banking rules, benefits for no UK citizens in the UK and vice versa in the EU, military coordination, intelligence sharing, etc... So many of these other things. It will be death by a thousand cuts.

[OldPhiKap]

I'd join you in that alternate universe to see how it would play out. And I would bring the popcorn and beer. It would be interesting from an academic stand point. In this reality, I would prefer to avoid it but it's not longing good.



I don't know if trade is the biggest practical issue if there's no deal. It's received, by far, the most attention but you are right. Things would revert to WTO rules and custom checks for EU/UK products would start. It would just slow import/exports, increase prices and increase smuggling. That can be manged. There are so many other things like travel (who needs a Visa!), banking rules, benefits for no UK citizens in the UK and vice versa in the EU, military coordination, intelligence sharing, etc... So many of these other things. It will be death by a thousand cuts.

Good info, thanks.

For my bellyaching about changing planes in the U.K., I would hate to be a businessman trying to deliver on a contract next Saturday from Dublin to Belfast.

[OldPhiKap]

FWIW, a former Blair spokesman thinks that this is essentially a bluff to scare folks into supporting May's deal:

Alastair Campbell, a pro-Remain campaigner and former spokesman for ex-British PM Tony Blair, has told CNN he believes parliament and European leaders will stop Britain from crashing out of the EU with no deal next week.

Asked if a no-deal Brexit becomes unavoidable if Theresa May's meaningful vote fails for a third time next week, Campbell said: "I think that is what she would like people to think, and it is reckless."

"I don't believe the EU or British MPs will allow (no deal) to happen," Campbell added. "If - when, I believe - she loses the vote then we are in the possibility of a longer extension."

(It's on CNN's update flow -- not sure if copying the cite will stick)

[OldPhiKap]

The CNN update feed is pretty good (BBC has an excellent similar thread) -- too many things going on at once to put them all here. Needless to say, it's getting to crunch time pretty soon.

[Kdogg]

FWIW, a former Blair spokesman thinks that this is essentially a bluff to scare folks into supporting May's deal:



(It's on CNN's update flow -- not sure if copying the cite will stick)

Oh I agree but sometimes bluffs are called and then what? We can start the cliches now: a game of chicken, who’s going to blink first, caught with you pants down, cutting your nose to spite your face. In the current world we will live in, it’s hard to see anyone backing down for king and country. I will pray that if May is on the brink of No Deal she turns her back on the Tories and stops it. But this is a person who has been in Conversative party since she was twelve.

[OldPhiKap]

EU has agreed to an extension until May 22, contingent upon the UK Parliament adopting the agreement already negotiated.

Not sure when UK expects to vote again, and I assume the legal hurdles to such a vote can be worked out. The Speaker is not going to put himself as the single man who forced a no-deal Brexit (especially since he supposedly is a Remainer anyway).

[YmoBeThere]

crunch

The sound the UK makes as it exits...

[OldPhiKap]

EU has agreed to an extension until May 22, contingent upon the UK Parliament adopting the agreement already negotiated.

Looks like that draft was premature. EU still locked in discussions behind closed doors. Nothing concrete announced yet.