Brexit & British Politics

[Highlander]

Can May/Parliament unilaterally decide to stay in the EU at the end of the month and effectively ignore the referendum? Or have they formally committed to a Brexit that has to happen in 2 weeks, either with or without a deal?

Basically, is staying in the EU an option, given that every other exit plan has been voted down?

[Kdogg]

May can at any time cancel Brexit by March 29. Parliament can not. It will be the only option left if the EU doesn’t grant an extension AND she wishes to avoid a No Deal scenario. Yesterday was the first time I heard her even mention canceling Brexit. In a normal universe, it would be politically suicide but 1) the lady is a survivor, 2) she can’t be thrown out for nine months and 3) it may beat the alternatives. There will be pressure on the EU now but not as must if No Deal was an option. Honestly regardless of this vote I think it still is.

[OldPhiKap]

May can at any time cancel Brexit by March 29. Parliament can not. It will be the only option left if the EU doesn’t grant an extension AND she wishes to avoid a No Deal scenario. Yesterday was the first time I heard her even mention canceling Brexit. In a normal universe, it would be politically suicide but 1) the lady is a survivor, 2) she can’t be thrown out for nine months and 3) it may beat the alternatives. There will be pressure on the EU now but not as must if No Deal was an option. Honestly regardless of this vote I think it still is.

So the PM can revoke Article 50 without the action of the Parliament? Did not know that.

I agree that if the EU does not agree to an extension (would seem likely, but it does require unanimous agreement with all 27 member-states) then the two options are to cancel or to crash out. Yikes, that's a lot for one person to hold in her hands.

ETA: some more meat on the bone about the votes today (Sun style). https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/brexit...-vote-tonight/ . It looks as if May's bill to just keep a no-deal Brexit off the table for a few months was overtaken by a backbencher's motion to take no-deal off the table forever. And then the PM had defections on the several votes taken, including members of the cabinet.


This seems to indicate that today's (nonbinding) vote takes No Deal off the table forever. Which if true, and if followed by the PM, would mean that if the EU did not grant an extension I guess the PM would have to cancel Brexit -- or at least put that duality option to a vote in the next two weeks.


Sounds like time for a new general election.

[budwom]

Theresa should just call a national holiday so everyone can go to the pub, get some ales, and reflect on the folly of leaving the EU. Call for a do-over vote.

[Kdogg]

Theresa should just call a national holiday so everyone can go to the pub, get some ales, and reflect on the folly of leaving the EU. Call for a do-over vote.

I would have voted to stay but I’m not sure I would call leaving a the EU a folly. There are legitimate problems with its structure, regulations, laws and governing. A lot stem from turning an economic model into a political and monetary institution. A running joke is if you can’t get a law passed in your own country become an EU minister and get it passed everywhere. I think it’s better to stay and try to fix these issues. I’m not sure why there is never a big push from anyone for EU reforms.

What’s folly is this Benny Hill style mess we call Brexit.

[JasonEvans]

A perfect example of the mess this all is comes from Britain's fishing cities. They largely voted to leave because the EU was allowing fishermen from other countries to fish in British waters... and that was bad for their business.

But since the vote, they have really soured on Brexit because they discovered it would make it much harder for them to sell fish to other EU countries and that would be bad for their business.

[Kdogg]

A perfect example of the mess this all is comes from Britain's fishing cities. They largely voted to leave because the EU was allowing fishermen from other countries to fish in British waters... and that was bad for their business.

But since the vote, they have really soured on Brexit because they discovered it would make it much harder for them to sell fish to other EU countries and that would be bad for their business.

Same applies to poultry farmers. The British prefer the white meat from chicken so there is a limited market for dark meat in the UK. Eastern Europeans love dark meat so it’s a perfect export market. Also they can send the white meat back because domestic farmers can’t meet demand. Win - Win in a free trade zone.

It’s hundreds (thousands?) of these little things that were never brought up before the referendum.

[OldPhiKap]

Wonder why the EU hates the Brits?

Nigel Ferage today, urging the EU to basically kick the U.K. out:

https://youtu.be/8dMI0hngsKw

[CameronBlue]

Wonder why the EU hates the Brits?

Nigel Ferage today, urging the EU to basically kick the U.K. out:

https://youtu.be/8dMI0hngsKw

That was hilarious. An indignant Ferage essentially telling the EU "You won't have me to kick you around anymore!"

[budwom]

I would have voted to stay but I’m not sure I would call leaving a the EU a folly. There are legitimate problems with its structure, regulations, laws and governing. A lot stem from turning an economic model into a political and monetary institution. A running joke is if you can’t get a law passed in your own country become an EU minister and get it passed everywhere. I think it’s better to stay and try to fix these issues. I’m not sure why there is never a big push from anyone for EU reforms.

What’s folly is this Benny Hill style mess we call Brexit.

That's fair...but then the Law of Unintended Consequences kicks in in a big, big way...the notion that they can pick and choose the terms of their exit I do believe is something of a folly, it just doesn't work that way, regardless of their legitimate concerns.
I do think they were wise years ago to eschew the Euro...sharing a currency takes away a lot of flexibility...

[OldPhiKap]

If this hasn't been posted before, well -- Samantha Bee's Brief History of Brexit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDxBN1y5C8o

(some language NSFW)

[OldPhiKap]

The Speaker has "selected" four amendments to debate today, including one that would call for a second referendum. It would be non-binding if it passed.

My question for those who know -- what rules govern the "selection" of amendments by the Speaker? Apparently some pro-Brexit hardliners complained that the Speaker did not select an amendment to basically rule out staying (or some such). I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that the "selection" process is not wholly discretionary and subject to caprice?

[JasonEvans]

If this hasn't been posted before, well -- Samantha Bee's Brief History of Brexit:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDxBN1y5C8o

(some language NSFW)

Really funny and a very good history of this mess... but it never explained the backstop

[budwom]

The Speaker has "selected" four amendments to debate today, including one that would call for a second referendum. It would be non-binding if it passed.

My question for those who know -- what rules govern the "selection" of amendments by the Speaker? Apparently some pro-Brexit hardliners complained that the Speaker did not select an amendment to basically rule out staying (or some such). I assume (perhaps incorrectly) that the "selection" process is not wholly discretionary and subject to caprice?

I've tried digging into it a bit, but it appears that it's even befuddling to Parliament, some very arcane rules. I don't think there's a clear answer...

[OldPhiKap]

I've tried digging into it a bit, but it appears that it's even befuddling to Parliament, some very arcane rules. I don't think there's a clear answer...

Thanks, tried to spork but not allowed yet. Must be tied up in customs.

Meanwhile, the UK Parliament just passed the resolution to seek a delay -- three months -- from the EU. EU meets a week from today (Thursday, March 21) where it will be taken up. The EU elections are coming up sometime in May I believe, so that may be a complicating factor on the exact time extension requested for lots of reasons. But generally, hard to see any EU member vetoing some sort of short extension and risk getting blamed for forcing a no-deal crash. (Expect harrumphs though from the French and some others first).

A delay does not provide a clear path forward, of course, but it forestalls Armageddon for a bit. Given that there is no clear majority in Parliament for the May Brexit deal, a no-deal Brexit, or a second referendum (which also was voted down today), it seems the only clear agreement is that a majority want to Brexit with a deal but want a deal different than the EU is apparently willing to offer. So, good luck with that.

Theresa May will also likely reintroduce her Brexit deal (with recent clarifying addenda) for yet another vote prior to next Thursday. Even in the unlikely event that it passes, I think all agree that the actual Brexit date will need to be delayed a bit for practical purposes at this point. But that would show us what the Brexit will look like.

[Kdogg]

That's fair...but then the Law of Unintended Consequences kicks in in a big, big way...the notion that they can pick and choose the terms of their exit I do believe is something of a folly, it just doesn't work that way, regardless of their legitimate concerns.

So true. It’s because the British can be arrogant prats at times. Did we mention we use to have an Empire not long ago. 😄

After today down to three options: extension, cancellation or hard Brexit. I can’t see May’s third attempt to get her deal passed being successful.

[OldPhiKap]

So true. It’s because the British can be arrogant prats at times. Did we mention we use to have an Empire not long ago. ��

After today down to three options: extension, cancellation or hard Brexit. I can’t see May’s third attempt to get her deal passed being successful.

I note that all of the Labour Party MPs abstained from the "second referendum" amendment vote. Saw a photo on Twitter of the empty chamber except for the Speaker, the clerks, and the Labour benches surrounded by rows of empty green benches as the others were out voting.

[Kdogg]

I note that all of the Labour Party MPs abstained from the "second referendum" amendment vote. Saw a photo on Twitter of the empty chamber except for the Speaker, the clerks, and the Labour benches surrounded by rows of empty green benches as the others were out voting.

I think this is more a political strategy then a complete rebuke of a second referendum. Damn political games. I will say Labour is much better at whipping up their members than the Tories.

[budwom]

So true. It’s because the British can be arrogant prats at times. Did we mention we use to have an Empire not long ago. 😄

After today down to three options: extension, cancellation or hard Brexit. I can’t see May’s third attempt to get her deal passed being successful.

are you (or have you ever been) British?...I ask because my mother emigrated to the U.S. many moons ago...Liverpudlian she was...

[Kdogg]

are you (or have you ever been) British?...I ask because my mother emigrated to the U.S. many moons ago...Liverpudlian she was...

Yup. Born in London. Raised in the Carolinas. I’m still a dual national. My family is a product of the British Empire. It’s been close to a 100 years since we’ve had a generation born on the same continent. We moved here when I was two but that was close to fourty years ago.