Brexit & British Politics

[sagegrouse]

Can the same be said of France and Germany?

I ask because I don’t know. But if you don’t have England, France and Germany in this deal, how long are you going to have France and Germany in the deal?

France and Germany, IMHO (where the H got lost on the docks of Le Havre), are the heart and soul, historically and economically, of the European Union.

The fundamental idea behind the European Union was the focus of some influential leaders in France and Germany in the years following World War II to so integrate the two economies (plus the Low Countries) that another European war would not only be unthinkable but also be impossible. The most familiar names are France's Robert Schuman (foreign minister 1948-52) and Jean Monnet, Paul-Henri Spaak of Belgium and Konrad Adenauer of West Germany.

The eventual EU began with the European Coal and Steel Community with six countries, and in 1957 the Treaty of Rome created the European Economic Community (the first references to "the Common Market"). Later there was expansion (Britain, Ireland and Denmark); increased political integration and then a common currency.

France and Germany aren't going anywhere. Germany has the strongest economy but a stagnant population. France has a stronger international footprint (nuclear power, larger military and a permanent seat on the Security Council) and a growing population. Now, none of this addresses the question of whether the Germans and French really like each other. But I don't see the disintegration of the EU. Rather, I see Britain suffering mightily from an emotional decision to separate from its main economic partners.

I hope I don't sound like I know what I am talking about -- I don't like to mislead the Board.

[OldPhiKap]

France and Germany, IMHO (where the H got lost on the docks of Le Havre), are the heart and soul, historically and economically, of the European Union.

The fundamental idea behind the European Union was the focus of some influential leaders in France and Germany in the years following World War II to so integrate the two economies (plus the Low Countries) that another European war would not only be unthinkable but also be impossible. The most familiar names are France's Robert Schuman (foreign minister 1948-52) and Jean Monnet, Paul-Henri Spaak of Belgium and Konrad Adenauer of West Germany.

The eventual EU began with the European Coal and Steel Community with six countries, and in 1957 the Treaty of Rome created the European Economic Community (the first references to "the Common Market"). Later there was expansion (Britain, Ireland and Denmark); increased political integration and then a common currency.

France and Germany aren't going anywhere. Germany has the strongest economy but a stagnant population. France has a stronger international footprint (nuclear power, larger military and a permanent seat on the Security Council) and a growing population. Now, none of this addresses the question of whether the Germans and French really like each other. But I don't see the disintegration of the EU. Rather, I see Britain suffering mightily from an emotional decision to separate from its main economic partners.

I hope I don't sound like I know what I am talking about -- I don't like to mislead the Board.

“You must spread some Comments around before commenting on sagegrouse again.”

Thanks, Sage. Very informative.

Agree that the UK will suffer economically due to an emotional response. When I think of Brexit, it always reminds me of a line from The Clash almost 40 years ago:

“They say immigrants steal the hubcaps
Of the respected gentlemen
They say it would be wine an' roses
If England were for Englishmen again…”

[elvis14]

“You must spread some Comments around before commenting on sagegrouse again.”

Thanks, Sage. Very informative.

I was able to spread some Comments to Sage for you OPK :-)

Good posts by both of you guys, thanks.

[Kdogg]

I think it’s fair to say that no one really likes the English on the Continent. And Ireland has leverage over England for the first time since William of Fn Orange.

Can the same be said of France and Germany?

Those are fair comments. The UK, France and Germany are the wallet of the EU. Germany and France control monetary policy and increasing try to influence fiscal policy so there is built-in tension with other countries. Plus, with maybe the exception of some of the Low Countries, most of these countries are just friendly...not real friends. They would stand together but maybe grudgingly. I would argue that the US and the UK still, even today, have a stronger bond than any two European countries.

The underlining problem with the EU is that no one considers themselves European. They are Spanish or Germany or Polish etc... Outside of the Ryder Cup, no one carries the European flag and stands for Ode to Joy. If only they could bottle that spirit of unity and spread it across the continent, things might be different. Instead we are seeing the reemergence of nationalism. It seems they need a common opponent or threat to rally around. During the Cold War the Soviets served that function. Now they can't rally against Russia too much for fear of freezing in the winter if Moscow cuts the natural gas supply. In the US, you may be from New York or Mississippi or Oregon or New Mexico, but most people would say they are American first. The beauty of the US is that it's the only place in the world where you can come and truly become an American. And I speak from my families experience. What the EU needs is a dream.

https://dai.ly/x325sfu

Dunno. But the Uk has always been somewhat aloof — an island nation apart from the Continent, never joined the Euro but kept the Pound, not part of the Schengen Area for wholly free movement. From my outsider view, it always seemed that the UK had one tentative foot in the Euro experiment and one foot out. Germany and France by contrast seem all-in.

Part of that is because they use to have an Empire and although they no longer have an Empire the arrogance is still there. The mainly fringe Tory dream of Empire 2.0 is one reason for Brexit. The other part is because the Europeans had never really welcomed them with open arms. It's probably because of lingering tension from the Empire days. Both sides have been wary (and slightly resentful) of the other.

[budwom]

Complicated issues, but two things pop to mind: 1) the UK shunning the Euro was, I believe, a pretty solid idea...a lot of European countries envy the flexibility they have, and 2) I would not say the Brits are necessarily perceived as the boogeymen of Europe, the Germans foster a fair amount of ill will, too...as has been noted, there are a lot of nationalities involved with a whole laundry list of biases, big and small...the European Union is really a union only to a limited extent.

[Kdogg]

When all else fails give them cash!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47435565

This is pork barrel politics at it's finest.

Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. Only 25 days left on the clock.

[OldPhiKap]

When all else fails give them cash!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-47435565

This is pork barrel politics at it's finest.

Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock. Only 25 days left on the clock.

March 12 is the next scheduled vote in Parliament on Theresa May's "new" Brexit deal. Assuming that goes down as expected, Parliament will then vote on whether there should just be a no-deal Brexit. Assuming that too fails as anticipated, there will be a vote on trying to extend the Brexit deadline. The EU would have to agree unanimously, though, and several EU members have expressed opposition of some sort. Ultimately, though, I would think that an extension by the EU is preferable to a crash-out by the UK -- that is bad for the Continent too.

Edit to add -- I just also read that Theresa May would simply request an extension if the votes on her deal and then no-deal both fail, instead of a third vote. I guess that makes more sense but not sure she has the unilateral right to do that without a Parliamentary vote either. So put a pin in that for now, although someone probably knows better than moi about this.

Interesting times. And time is running short.

I have a flight to the Continent through the UK in early March, so this is starting to get a bit more of a personal bother for me than I would like.

[Kdogg]

And now May resorts to scare tactics. In essence: Vote for my deal or we may never leave the EU. I'm guessing she's trying to scare any leavers regardless of party to back her deal on Tuesday. I kind of like option two.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-brexit-update

On a different note; Go to Hell Carolina! Go to Hell.

[JasonEvans]

A new poll by the Irish Times finds that 67% of the people in that region don't want a hard border Brexit and close to 70% think the DUP is not doing a good job of representing the region. Without the DUP, May does not have a majority.

The calls for a new referendum are going to get really loud in the next couple weeks, I suspect.

[Kdogg]

A new poll by the Irish Times finds that 67% of the people in that region don't want a hard border Brexit and close to 70% think the DUP is not doing a good job of representing the region. Without the DUP, May does not have a majority.

The calls for a new referendum are going to get really loud in the next couple weeks, I suspect.

Man who is in that other 33% and are they off their rocker? If they were alive in the 70’s, 80’s or 90’s they have no excuse. If they were born after than someone need to teach them some history.

[OldPhiKap]

A new poll by the Irish Times finds that 67% of the people in that region don't want a hard border Brexit and close to 70% think the DUP is not doing a good job of representing the region. Without the DUP, May does not have a majority.

The calls for a new referendum are going to get really loud in the next couple weeks, I suspect.

Man who is in that other 33% and are they off their rocker? If they were alive in the 70’s, 80’s or 90’s they have no excuse. If they were born after than someone need to teach them some history.

The cruel irony is that if the UK crashes out of the EU in a "no-deal" scenario, the first thing that would have to happen is -- a hard border.

In retrospect, the single vote Brexit was a mistake, It should have been two votes:

1. in 2016, ask --> "do you wish the government to trigger Article 50 and negotiate the terms a Brexit?" If yes, then . . . .
2. In 2018/9, ask --> "should the UK leave the EU based upon the terms negotiated?"

As is, they were asked to vote on a concept instead of an actual plan. Everyone wants to go to Heaven; not everyone can live with the plan to get there.

[budwom]

Man who is in that other 33% and are they off their rocker? If they were alive in the 70’s, 80’s or 90’s they have no excuse. If they were born after than someone need to teach them some history.

I can think of other examples of a clueless 33%. Might just be the natural order of things.

[chris13]

Every time I hear the word Brexit I think of the Kinks song Village Green Preservation Society

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lc7dmu4G8oc

[OldPhiKap]

Pretty much at crunch time:

https://apnews.com/2d0ff19eade348d9a440b49a7ab3c04b

Should know a lot more in 24-48 hours, even if all we know is that there is no clarity but the brink is nigh.

[Kdogg]

The main take away from the weekend:
1) Corbin backing of the second referendum. I’m shocked, just shocked I tell you. Damn political stunt. Now he wants a Norway model which always made the most sense but allows free movement. It must be a tough pill for him to swallow.
2) Now it’s not just ministers urging May to resign. Her own aides are telling her to offer her resignation in exchange for passing her deal. Personally that makes no sense. I guess it some type of falling on ones own sword or putting king and country first or some other cliche?

In theory tomorrow is supposed to be a big day. In reality, I see the can being kicked down an ever shortening road.

[OldPhiKap]

I see the can being kicked down an ever shortening road.

The deadline is just two weeks from Friday, absent a last minute reprieve. And any delay requires the unanimous vote of both the UK Parliament and all of the EU member states.

What a mess. I bet David Cameron does not go out much these days.

[Kdogg]

The deadline is just two weeks from Friday, absent a last minute reprieve. And any delay requires the unanimous vote of both the UK Parliament and all of the EU member states.

What a mess. I bet David Cameron does not go out much these days.

Honestly, the only thing I know is March 29th will not be Brexit day. No Deal is in nobody’s best interest. I can’t see May, on that threshold, not canceling it if the EU doesn’t grant an extension. Of course I thought the referendum wouldn’t pass in the first place so what do I know?

Miracle of miracles I hope for an extension as long as it includes a second vote.

[Kdogg]

The main take away from the weekend:
1) Corbin backing of the second referendum. I’m shocked, just shocked I tell you. Damn political stunt. Now he wants a Norway model which always made the most sense but allows free movement. It must be a tough pill for him to swallow.
2) Now it’s not just ministers urging May to resign. Her own aides are telling her to offer her resignation in exchange for passing her deal. Personally that makes no sense. I guess it some type of falling on ones own sword or putting king and country first or some other cliche?

In theory tomorrow is supposed to be a big day. In reality, I see the can being kicked down an ever shortening road.

That should be Corbin backing off the People’s Vote.

[OldPhiKap]

Honestly, the only thing I know is March 29th will not be Brexit day. No Deal is in nobody’s best interest. I can’t see May, on that threshold, not canceling it if the EU doesn’t grant an extension. Of course I thought the referendum wouldn’t pass in the first place so what do I know?

Absolutely agree, I find it hard to picture it actually happening in two weeks. But I found it hard to even get to this place as is.

That should be Corbin backing off the People’s Vote.

I am not sure if posting my views of Corbyn would violate PPB rules -- actually I'm pretty sure they would -- so I will simply say that he has not been terribly constructive in this process. To the contrary, he is in full opposition mode no matter what the PM does and has not been terribly consistent on what he wants -- other than "something better."

[Kdogg]

I am not sure if posting my views of Corbyn would violate PPB rules -- actually I'm pretty sure they would -- so I will simply say that he has not been terribly constructive in this process. To the contrary, he is in full opposition mode no matter what the PM does and has not been terribly consistent on what he wants -- other than "something better."

Amen. May could have offered ambrosia and unicorns and free money (which she did) and he would say no thank you.