Brexit & British Politics

[JasonEvans]

HBO’s John Oliver spent 21 minutes of his show last night explaining Brexit and the problems with it. It is both really funny and also really informative. I highly recommend you watch because you can get smarter while laughing your !#^@!^ off.

[OldPhiKap]

HBO’s John Oliver spent 21 minutes of his show last night explaining Brexit and the problems with it. It is both really funny and also really informative. I highly recommend you watch because you can get smarter while laughing your !#^@!^ off.

(warning: language NSFW).

Yeah, he has it pegged.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

HBO’s John Oliver spent 21 minutes of his show last night explaining Brexit and the problems with it. It is both really funny and also really informative. I highly recommend you watch because you can get smarter while laughing your !#^@!^ off.

Thanks for the reminder. I will look forward to watching him this afternoon.

[OldPhiKap]

I highly recommend “BBC broadcaster” Jonathan Pie’s weekly rants on YouTube. Language warning though!

[budwom]

I'm often sympathetic with Labour, but Corbyn is just not up to the task, neither as PM nor opposition leader. They have to do better, and events today might get us there (Labour defections).

[dudog84]

This is a fun article, though not as much fun as John Oliver:

https://www.apnews.com/aecb81bc9ce74002af392399f456d581

Here's the 2nd paragraph:

"The British government awarded a contract to ship in emergency supplies to a company with no ships. It pledged to replace citizens’ burgundy European passports with proudly British blue ones — and gave the contract to a Franco-Dutch company. It promised to forge trade deals with 73 countries by the end of March, but two years later has only a handful in place (including one with the Faroe Islands)."

[Kdogg]

And Corbyn continues playing politics:
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics...xit-referendum
I can’t figure out his motives here because he's not one for an ideological shift. He wants Brexit and prefers May’s deal to no deal. Where was this weeks ago if he cared about the populace’s will. Is he trying to stop the Labour defectors? Is he trying to force the MPs to back May’s deal vs a second referendum? Then he can claim being a savor from no deal. If there is a no deal, he can say well I tried. Is he trying for an extension from the EU so Labour can take power and negotiate their own crappy deal? The only thing I’m convinced of is he is doing what’s good for Corbyn want to be future PM not the British people.

[sagegrouse]

And Corbyn continues playing politics:
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics...xit-referendum
I can’t figure out his motives here because he's not one for an ideological shift. He wants Brexit and prefers May’s deal to no deal. Where was this weeks ago if he cared about the populace’s will. Is he trying to stop the Labour defectors? Is he trying to force the MPs to back May’s deal vs a second referendum? Then he can claim being a savor from no deal. If there is a no deal, he can say well I tried. Is he trying for an extension from the EU so Labour can take power and negotiate their own crappy deal? The only thing I’m convinced of is he is doing what’s good for Corbyn want to be future PM not the British people.

Kdogg: I don't understand your post. Jeremy Corbyn has announced that he would support a second referendum. That second vote could very likely reverse the results of the 2016 vote. This is not so much "playing politics" as allowing for a substantively different result.

I do not totally trust my reading of the UK situation because I think that Brexit is totally "nuts" from a British perspective and not in the U.S. interest either. London, along with New York, is the world center of banking and finance. That will go "poof" if the Brits leave the EU. There go a zillion high-paying jobs and an inside track for the Brits on large global investments. In addition to being a historical world center (centre?) for finance, Britain's other advantage is a highly educated population that speaks English, which is the official language of the E.U. English is a strategic advantage.

If the Brits leave, then there will be exactly ZERO countries in the E.U. where English is the official language. The Irish, bless their hearts, claim Gaelic as the official language. Likely, the E.U. will eventually turn to two languages -- French and German -- as official.

Anyway, I have a point of view, and I don;t expect everyone here to share it.

Kindly,
Sage
'BTW, on my last campus visit I spoke to a Duke senior going to work in Europe for one of the large American banks. He will go to Paris because the huge London office will be closed and the staff divided between Dublin and Paree'

"Along the same vein -- but not Brexit -- I think it is absolutely nuts for NYC to drive away Amazon -- not that I think Amazon's behavior has been perfect'

[OldPhiKap]

And Corbyn continues playing politics:
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics...xit-referendum
I can’t figure out his motives here because he's not one for an ideological shift. He wants Brexit and prefers May’s deal to no deal. Where was this weeks ago if he cared about the populace’s will. Is he trying to stop the Labour defectors? Is he trying to force the MPs to back May’s deal vs a second referendum? Then he can claim being a savor from no deal. If there is a no deal, he can say well I tried. Is he trying for an extension from the EU so Labour can take power and negotiate their own crappy deal? The only thing I’m convinced of is he is doing what’s good for Corbyn want to be future PM not the British people.

I don't pretend to be impressed with Corbyn's "leadership" on the Brexit issue. I am not sure that he sees May's deal as better than a no-deal though. He decries both, refuses to put forth a concrete alternative plan (as best I can tell), and will simply declare that whatever result the Torries get is shambolic. It is the classic case of it being easier to be a critic in the out-party than to have (and implement) a plan as the in-party.

As the article you linked mentioned, a second referendum is also divisive even among Labour and so it risks defectors on the other end too. Not sure of the internal politics that led to it, but my guess is again so he can declare a "better way" that the Torries ignored on the way down the tubes.

[Kdogg]

Kdogg: I don't understand your post. Jeremy Corbyn has announced that he would support a second referendum. That second vote could very likely reverse the results of the 2016 vote. This is not so much "playing politics" as allowing for a substantively different result.

I have a feeling he's backing it in name only. If he only supports a backbencher instead of putting the amendment out himself, it will strengthen my belief.

Say what you will about him but Corbyn has his convictions and he hates the EU. He's old school socialist Labour not the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown Labour. He's opposed the UK's inclusion at every turn since the 70's. He's been a Eurosceptic forever - against the EEC, against the Maastricht Treaty, against the Lisbon Treaty. He even went against Labour's position in 2011 and supported a (failed) leave referendum then. Although Labour was officially Remain in 2016, he was never active in the campaign to the point where one could say he was undermining (sabotaging?) it. So he's no champion of an united Europe. He's putting this out there to appease the anti-Brexit members of Labour who are threatening to defect. Then he's telling the pro-Brexit Labour, well it doesn't really have a chance (in Parliament - currently it wouldn't have the numbers) anyway and it will keep those guys inline. Plus if we get an extension from the EU maybe Labour comes to power. That's what I mean by playing politics. The optics look good but the intentions are not pure. He's gambling that the numbers don't change and the vote has no chance which would be a good bet. Or it might force the anti EU Labour and anti EU Tories to come around, form an unholy alliance and support May's deal. Corby's not after a second referendum. He wants Brexit without shouldering any blame. I hold out hope this backfires like Cameron's first referendum.

For me personally the problem here is it gives hope. I'm still on stage 3 (bargaining) in the 5 stages of grief in regard to Brexit. I'd like to move on to 4 and 5. Part of me really wants this to be a turning point for Brexit...a hope..a chance to end the madness. I really really wish I am wrong here but the reality is it's 1)to keep members from defecting and 2) a ploy to avoid blame for the outcome especially if it's a crash out. I'm skeptical of a man who has spent his entire political life voting against the EU backing something that might (even remotely) keep the UK in the EU.

At this point you have Theresa May, who really wants to stay, committing to leave. Then you have Corbyn, who really wants to leave, committing to nothing.

Sagegrouse I'm in agreement with everything else you said. The city of London thought the same and voted to Remain for those reasons. The rest of England and Wales not so much and they will be losing as many if not more jobs then London. The Leavers thought the UK would become some type of Singapore-like Financial hub for the world. Instead they have James Dyson (a big pro Leaver) heading out the door to the real Singapore. I wonder how the Leaver's like them apples.

[OldPhiKap]

May plans a series of alternate votes should her “new” deal be voted down:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47373996

Not sure what happens when none of them pass. Although I guess my money is on a rejection of no-deal Brexit and a delay of Aricle 50 effectiveness.

[cato]

May plans a series of alternate votes should her “new” deal be voted down:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47373996

Not sure what happens when none of them pass. Although I guess my money is on a rejection of no-deal Brexit and a delay of Aricle 50 effectiveness.

Can the UK unilaterally delay Brexit, or do they need the EU’s consent?

[OldPhiKap]

Can the UK unilaterally delay Brexit, or do they need the EU’s consent?

Very good question. Dunno. I think the EU lawyers say that the UK can unilaterally reverse Brexit completely and withdraw Article 50. My guess is that they cannot unilaterally delay the two-year period which is in the treaty itself though. My other guess is that the EU would agree to a short delay, because a no-deal crash out is not beneficial to the EU either.

[Kdogg]

Very good question. Dunno. I think the EU lawyers say that the UK can unilaterally reverse Brexit completely and withdraw Article 50. My guess is that they cannot unilaterally delay the two-year period which is in the treaty itself though. My other guess is that the EU would agree to a short delay, because a no-deal crash out is not beneficial to the EU either.

That’s right. The EU can grant an extension as long as all 27 other member nations agree. The UK can only call the whole thing off. Brussels has indicated that they are willing to consider a two year extension. They don’t want a short extension because they doubt the British can get their stuff together because...well look at them. May on the other hand only wants a short extension because European Parliament elections are in May. If Britain is still in they have to participate.

[Kdogg]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...e-or-desirable

As expected:
1) The French never miss a chance to try to stick it to the British.
2) The Spainish still angling for Gibraltar.
3) The Germans urging pragmatism.

All three leaders have different internal problems but still hold true to form.

[dudog84]

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/20...e-or-desirable

As expected:
1) The French never miss a chance to try to stick it to the British.
2) The Spainish still angling for Gibraltar.
3) The Germans urging pragmatism.

All three leaders have different internal problems but still hold true to form.

Family squabble. Hasn't it always been this way between the British and French since at least the Norman Invasion by William the Conqueror in 1066?

Sorry if I'm wrong on this, much of my knowledge of medieval history is gleaned from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

[CameronBlue]

Family squabble. Hasn't it always been this way between the British and French since at least the Norman Invasion by William the Conqueror in 1066?

Sorry if I'm wrong on this, much of my knowledge of medieval history is gleaned from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

Well not ALWAYS, considering those fun-loving Normans raped and pillaged most of Europe. At least the hooliganism is now constrained to soccer matches.

[OldPhiKap]

Family squabble. Hasn't it always been this way between the British and French since at least the Norman Invasion by William the Conqueror in 1066?

Sorry if I'm wrong on this, much of my knowledge of medieval history is gleaned from Monty Python and the Holy Grail.

Well not ALWAYS, considering those fun-loving Normans raped and pillaged most of Europe. At least the hooliganism is now constrained to soccer matches.

I think it’s fair to say that no one really likes the English on the Continent. And Ireland has leverage over England for the first time since William of Fn Orange.

[cato]

I think it’s fair to say that no one really likes the English on the Continent.

Can the same be said of France and Germany?

I ask because I don’t know. But if you don’t have England, France and Germany in this deal, how long are you going to have France and Germany in the deal?

[OldPhiKap]

Can the same be said of France and Germany?

I ask because I don’t know. But if you don’t have England, France and Germany in this deal, how long are you going to have France and Germany in the deal?

Dunno. But the Uk has always been somewhat aloof — an island nation apart from the Continent, never joined the Euro but kept the Pound, not part of the Schengen Area for wholly free movement. From my outsider view, it always seemed that the UK had one tentative foot in the Euro experiment and one foot out. Germany and France by contrast seem all-in.

Others can likely correct this or confirm this. I travel ther a bunch and try to stay current on it, but far from an expert.