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Thread: Brexit

  1. #281
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Support for a second referrendum grows:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sk...-poll-11454299
    I dunno. 50% isn't real convincing to me. And y'all know what I think about polls.

    I'd be a terrible pollster. I would not accept 'undecided's and 'not sure's. I would be cussing at them over the phone "Make a #@*%ing decision!".

    I suspect there is a 35% base of hard-liners. Eerily familiar.

  2. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    I dunno. 50% isn't real convincing to me. And y'all know what I think about polls.

    I'd be a terrible pollster. I would not accept 'undecided's and 'not sure's. I would be cussing at them over the phone "Make a #@*%ing decision!".

    I suspect there is a 35% base of hard-liners. Eerily familiar.
    Understood, and donít really disagree. I do think it supports the theory, however, that skepticism is either growing or at least not abating as the deadline draws near.

  3. #283
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    And neither Northern Ireland nor the Republic of Ireland want to return to a hard border. Just making the Irish Sea the de facto physical border does not resolve the EU/non-EU goods problem.
    I would HOPE that no one wants to see a hard border. Itís already a balancing act right now. These pols are of an age that should remember the bombings (and near bombings) of the 80ís and 90ís. I spent a good part of my youth worrying about family working in Central London. I can not imagine anyone wants to see that again.

  4. #284
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    Well, this is going smoothly.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  5. #285
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Well, this is going smoothly.
    Hmmm, I was hoping for a, "I love it when a plan comes together." and a tip of your cigar.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  6. #286
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Well, this is going smoothly.
    You ainít scene nothing yet.

    It has always been in the EUís best interest to punish the UK. The UK is already on the hook for payments for decades. That was their only chip and they cashed that in too early. The UKís decisions will eventually make a great case study on how not to negotiate.

  7. #287
    If Italy (which is currently run by a nationalist/populist gov't) also leaves the EU, then that might change negotiating positions.

    "Italexit" can't be ruled out:
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...g-latest-polls
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...oc-has-failed/

    As usual, someone in UK's position would love to have another defector. It's lonely being the only one. If there are two defectors, the equation changes.

  8. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    If Italy (which is currently run by a nationalist/populist gov't) also leaves the EU, then that might change negotiating positions.

    "Italexit" can't be ruled out:
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...g-latest-polls
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...oc-has-failed/

    As usual, someone in UK's position would love to have another defector. It's lonely being the only one. If there are two defectors, the equation changes.
    Not much. My best friend did a 2-week tour of Italy this year and his impression is that the country is pretty poor, especially the south. Very tourist driven.

    England probably thought they had a safety valve with the U.S. Heh.

    To those with more knowledge of foreign affairs, how does the breakup of economic alliances affect military alliances? I suppose the rest of Europe would come to England's aid in an all-out attack, but that doesn't seem to be the way things happen nowadays. I can't imagine how a European family who lost someone in Iraq/Afghanistan feels to now be told they are not an ally. I started thinking about this because I just watched "A War", a Danish film that was quite powerful. They used recently returned soldiers for many of the parts instead of actors.

  9. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Not much. My best friend did a 2-week tour of Italy this year and his impression is that the country is pretty poor, especially the south. Very tourist driven.

    England probably thought they had a safety valve with the U.S. Heh.

    To those with more knowledge of foreign affairs, how does the breakup of economic alliances affect military alliances? I suppose the rest of Europe would come to England's aid in an all-out attack, but that doesn't seem to be the way things happen nowadays. I can't imagine how a European family who lost someone in Iraq/Afghanistan feels to now be told they are not an ally. I started thinking about this because I just watched "A War", a Danish film that was quite powerful.
    The NATO defense agreement is wholly separate from the EU economic adventure. Under NATO, an attack on one is an attack on all. (Only invoked once, IIRC, on 9/11 when we were attacked).
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  10. #290
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    The NATO defense agreement is wholly separate from the EU economic adventure. Under NATO, an attack on one is an attack on all. (Only invoked once, IIRC, on 9/11 when we were attacked).
    Thanks. But what is an "attack"? How many have to be killed? Does it have to be state-sponsored? Does cyber-warfare count? Start breaking the bonds, and people won't want to help you.

  11. #291
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    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Thanks. But what is an "attack"? How many have to be killed? Does it have to be state-sponsored? Does cyber-warfare count? Start breaking the bonds, and people won't want to help you.
    I believe that it merely refers to an attack by an outside/external party. Don't think it has to be state-sponsored, because NATO went after the Taliban in Afghanistan.

    I guess that a cyber attack could count. I am pretty sure it is loosely-defined for a purpose.

    (Not sure I can say too much more without hitting political no-no's but I think this is fine -- apologies if not).



    Quick edit to add: some reading on the issue of how to define cyber-attacks by NATO from a few years ago: https://www.realclearworld.com/artic...ar_110755.html

    I am sure there is much more out there for those who want to look, not saying this is definitive.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  12. #292
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    If Italy (which is currently run by a nationalist/populist gov't) also leaves the EU, then that might change negotiating positions.

    "Italexit" can't be ruled out:
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...g-latest-polls
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...oc-has-failed/

    As usual, someone in UK's position would love to have another defector. It's lonely being the only one. If there are two defectors, the equation changes.
    There's a greater chance of Italy (and Greece for that matter) being kicked out than choosing to leave. Neither is likely. There is a tighter bond there than the UK has ever had. The UK never bought in 100% to the Europe Project. Maybe if de Gaulle didn't block the UK joining the Common Market fifty years ago things would be different.

    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Thanks. But what is an "attack"? How many have to be killed? Does it have to be state-sponsored? Does cyber-warfare count? Start breaking the bonds, and people won't want to help you.
    I say this as a realist: If the beacons of Gondor are lite, the Europeans will come to each others aid.

  13. #293
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Not much.
    Couldn't disagree more. At some point, the EU loses legitimacy if its members keep leaving. I wouldn't even know how it could refer to itself as the European Union if it's missing Britain and Italy, and maybe the dam breaks after that. Luckily for the EU, I agree with KDogg that the Italians will pounds their fists and complain about Brussels without ever seriously coming close to leaving. At least for now, Italians polled are roughly 2 to 1 against having a referendum on Italexit.

  14. #294
    One may also have heard that Merkel is losing power in Germany, which will have implications for Europe overall

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...-europe-is-too

    If nationalism / populism keeps rising in Europe, it's tough to see how the EU will survive long-term.

  15. #295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    There's a greater chance of Italy (and Greece for that matter) being kicked out than choosing to leave. Neither is likely. There is a tighter bond there than the UK has ever had. The UK never bought in 100% to the Europe Project. Maybe if de Gaulle didn't block the UK joining the Common Market fifty years ago things would be different.
    I don't think that England was ever giving up the Pound Sterling, so it was always a strained fit.

    Italy needs the common currency more than the common currency needs Italy, agreed. While Italy may not like the austerity measures that Germany and France would like to impose, the Lira was not what anyone would call a stable or desired currency. And free borders = easy tourism, which is the lifeblood of Italy's economy I think.
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  16. #296
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I don't think that England was ever giving up the Pound Sterling, so it was always a strained fit.

    Italy needs the common currency more than the common currency needs Italy, agreed. While Italy may not like the austerity measures that Germany and France would like to impose, the Lira was not what anyone would call a stable or desired currency. And free borders = easy tourism, which is the lifeblood of Italy's economy I think.
    Nah. The lifeblood is Ferrari.

  17. #297
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    One may also have heard that Merkel is losing power in Germany, which will have implications for Europe overall

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...-europe-is-too

    If nationalism / populism keeps rising in Europe, it's tough to see how the EU will survive long-term.
    Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it. Itís only taken two generations for the blood on the battlefields to be forgotten.

  18. #298
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kdogg View Post
    Those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it. Itís only taken two generations for the blood on the battlefields to be forgotten.
    When you look at the history of Europe, it's kinda amazing that there has been peace in western Europe for 70 years. The U.S. has a lot to do with that. Or maybe I should say had. Eastern Europe, while not completely quiet, has also been relatively peaceful. Think about even a hundred years ago, what a change similar to the fall of communism would have done to those countries.

  19. #299
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    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    Nah. The lifeblood is Ferrari.
    You dare to dismiss Fiat!?!

    Fix it again, Tony.

  20. #300
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    One may also have heard that Merkel is losing power in Germany, which will have implications for Europe overall

    https://www.economist.com/leaders/20...-europe-is-too

    If nationalism / populism keeps rising in Europe, it's tough to see how the EU will survive long-term.
    The current brand of nationalism / populism sweeping the world is of the authoritarian variety, which if it takes root, would make it very difficult on the European Union indeed

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