Brexit & British Politics

[OldPhiKap]

^^ Welsh, not Welch. Sorry.

(At least I didn't say "People from Whales")

[CameronBornAndBred]

Really not sure how this will affect us here in the U.S. (would love to be educated on that). But for sure, it should keep the Ds from being too smug about their prospects in 2020.

Internally, their battle cry should be "Remember Brexit!".

On NPR they were prognosticating that the Democrats would be studying this election very closely.
Whether they do or not, and whether it changes any of their thinking, I would not be so sure.

[OldPhiKap]

On NPR they were prognosticating that the Democrats would be studying this election very closely.
Whether they do or not, and whether it changes any of their thinking, I would not be so sure.

What did they say were the main takeaways to be applied?

[CameronBornAndBred]

What did they say were the main takeaways to be applied?

They didn't, they just said that they would think "the Democrats would be studying these results closely". I'd agree with that part, especially since others have noted that so many were thinking this was going to be a very close election. What Corbyn was selling could very well be put in tangent with some of the same pitches from the more far leaning Dems such as Warren and Sanders.

[dudog84]

I guess the Welch are happy-ish?

Remind me never to make a bet with you.

(yes, I know you apologized)

Or did you mean the jam- and jelly-makers?

Which reminds me of one of my guilty pleasures:

[cato]

Final tally was 48 seats for the SNP (a gain of 13). Boris will resist the calls for an independence referendum, but something to keep an eye on if it evolves to massive protests in the streets of Glasgow.

In Northern Ireland, voters elected more Irish nationalists than pro-British unionists for the first time since partition. And the DUP is now back to a party with little influence now that the Conservatives do not need them to form a coalition government. This will be interesting to watch, given that Boris' Brexit deal treats NI very differently than the rest of the UK (which is exactly what the DUP supposedly fought against).

I guess the Welch are happy-ish?

Queen's Speech is scheduled for next Thursday, with a new vote on Boris' Brexit bill in the Commons next Friday. Brexit date, absent some sort of derailment, is January 31.

Question: when discussion Northern Ireland, isn’t the distinction between Republicans and Unionists? Nationalist is a bit confusing, since Northern Ireland a distinct entity in its own right.

[OldPhiKap]

Question: when discussion Northern Ireland, isn’t the distinction between Republicans and Unionists? Nationalist is a bit confusing, since Northern Ireland a distinct entity in its own right.

True, good correction.

[Kdogg]

What did they say were the main takeaways to be applied?

Probably the hazards of running on a hard socialist platform when the people who go to vote are not keen on the idea. I doubt Bernie or Warren pivot after these results though. Also the perils of taking your past supporters for granted and ignoring their concerns. But those should be lessons from 2016 for the US. I have a few other harsh lessons but don’t wish to be suspended from the forum.

On the PG side.

1) Don’t take anything for granted.
2) You need to have a strong ground game.
3) Don’t believe you are the smartest person in the game.
4) Past performance doesn’t guarantee future success.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

On NPR they were prognosticating that the Democrats would be studying this election very closely.
Whether they do or not, and whether it changes any of their thinking, I would not be so sure.

...that was the Campaign Consultant arm of NPR hoping and praying...

[OldPhiKap]

EU Withdrawal Agreement being debated in Parliament HofC right now. The two opposition parties are shattered.

Brexit is neigh.

[CameronBornAndBred]

EU Withdrawal Agreement being debated in Parliament HofC right now. The two opposition parties are shattered.

Brexit is neigh.

Mister_Ed_9355.jpg

[Kdogg]

And it's passed. Excuse a moment while I pour one out for potential end of the United Kingdom.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/20/uk/bo...ntl/index.html

[OldPhiKap]

And it's passed. Excuse a moment while I pour one out for potential end of the United Kingdom.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/20/uk/bo...ntl/index.html

"We'll always have Wales . . . ."

[throatybeard]

What a monumental and completely unnecessary self-sabotage. I still kind of can't believe this is happening.

[OldPhiKap]

What a monumental and completely unnecessary self-sabotage. I still kind of can't believe this is happening.

I’ll go back to The Only Band That Matters:

They say immigrants steal the hubcaps
Of the respected gentlemen
They say it would be wine an' roses
If England were for Englishmen again . . . .

So leave me now the moon is up
But remember all the tales I tell
The memories that you have dredged up
Are on letters forwarded from hell

The streets were by now deserted
The gangs had trudged off home
The lights clicked off in the bedsits
An' old England was all alone.

[OldPhiKap]

Not with a bang, but a whimper:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/09/uk/br...ntl/index.html

Unless something strange happens in the House of Lords, or Meghan Markle brings down the Empire, Brexit will be the law in the UK.

That was a fun three years.

[budwom]

I'm going over for a personal inspection next month...maybe I can pick up some assets at a discount...how big is Big Ben?

[Kdogg]

I'm going over for a personal inspection next month...maybe I can pick up some assets at a discount...how big is Big Ben?

The Pound has been strengthening since it was clear the Tories would win. Markets hate uncertainty and at least the election brought clarity. I expect it to dip by next fall when the exit is eminent but the trade deal with the EU is far away.

[crimsondevil]

In bold is the main short term impact on our impact in the US. It should also be a warning shot to the US media, as the British media totally screwed the pooch in their predictions in this election...saying it was "too close to call" up until election day. Clearly they were wrong. There appears to be populations in both countries who are missed by pollsters, dismissed by pollsters, or who lie to pollsters (some of all three I think). Those populations all lean right.

As for Brexit and what it means for the U.S., I agree. This is now the 3rd time (twice with Brexit, once here in '16) where the polling & media has completely blown the prediction call. Democrats should take what happened in the UK as a serious harbinger. Clearly, the populism wave is still massive and those that ride that wave (especially the 'conservative' portion of it) have a distinct advantage.

I know this is a little late, but... huh? The polling was actually remarkably accurate. For example:

Screen Shot 2020-01-09 at 1.35.30 PM.jpg

https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50777965
https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/14/polit...ace/index.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...neral_election

Translating the raw percentages into the number of seats is challenging, especially with multiple viable parties, but the attempts were mostly close. Most of the commentary I saw leading up to the election was that the Tories were clearly leading, just with an added "ya never know" caveat.

[budwom]

The Pound has been strengthening since it was clear the Tories would win. Markets hate uncertainty and at least the election brought clarity. I expect it to dip by next fall when the exit is eminent but the trade deal with the EU is far away.

yeah, glad I paid for my hotel already...